Discrete choice models form a class of models widely used in econometrics for modelling the individual choice from a finite set of alternatives. The most widely used model is the multinomial logit model, implicitly assuming independence of irrelevant alternatives. A generalization is the nested multinomial logit model, relaxing this strong assurnp tion. Viewing both models as nonlinear regression models a set of diagnostics is derived. This includes a hat matrix, measures of leverage, influence and residuals and an approximation to the parameters for case deletion. In an example for the multinomid logit model a good performance of these diagnostics is observed and the parameter approximation by the proposed formula is better than a one step Newton-Raphson procedure. In an example for the nested logit model a constructed outlier with high influence is revealed by the measures of leverage and residual, but the parameter approximation is insufficient. (author's abstract) / Series: Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statistik

Pedestrians are vulnerable road users because they do not have any protection while they walk. They are unlike cyclists and motorcyclists who often have at least helmet protection and sometimes additional body protection (in the case of motorcyclists with body-armored jackets and pants). In the US, pedestrian fatalities are increasing and becoming an ever larger proportion of overall roadway fatalities (NHTSA, 2016), thus underscoring the need to study factors that influence pedestrian-injury severity and potentially develop appropriate countermeasures. One of the critical elements in the study of pedestrian-injury severities is to understand how injuries vary across age and gender ‒ two elements that have been shown to be critical injury determinants in past research. In the current research effort, 4829 police-reported pedestrian crashes from Chicago in 2011 and 2012 are used to estimate multinomial logit, mixed logit, and latent class logit models to study the effects of age and gender on resulting injury severities in pedestrian crashes. The results from these model estimations show that the injury severity level for older males, younger males, older females, and younger females are statistically different. Moreover, the overall findings also show that older males and older females are more likely to have higher injury-severity levels in many instances (if a crash occurs on city streets, state maintained urban roads, the primary cause of the crash is failing to yield right-of way, pedestrian entering/ leaving/ crossing is not at intersection, road surface condition is dry, and road functional class is a local road or street). The findings suggest that well-designed and well-placed crosswalks, small islands in two-way streets, narrow streets, clear road signs, provisions for resting places, and wide, flat sidewalks all have the potential to result in lower pedestrian-injury severities across age/gender combinations.

This diploma thesis examines scientific articles to determine if there is an agree-ment in literature on the topic of relationship between economic growth and en-vironment. This investigation uses meta-analysis to explore the systematic varia-tion across environmental Kuznets curve studies to better understand the specific factors that affect this relationship. Binomial and multinomial logit models are performed. Final results stimulate an ongoing discussion of not discovering any unity in this area.

"Cross-Border Contagion in the Banking Sector: The Case of Nordic Countries" by Lina Baronaite Abstract: The objective of the thesis is to estimate the degree of cross-border contagion among the Nordic banking sectors. It analyzes a sample of sixteen largest listed Nordic banks from January 2004 to January 2014. Using a multinomial logit model we test whether there is any degree of contagion among the four banking sectors, whether it is more pro- nounced for larger banks and whether the recent financial crisis has exacerbated it. Our results are in line with similar studies conducted for other countries. In particular, we find that a shock in one bank- ing sector is positively associated with an increase in shocks in another banking sector. Second, these shocks are larger and more significant for larger and more active international banks. Finally, the effect of the recent financial crisis has ambiguous effects on the cross-sectoral banking contagion. It appears that contagious links between some sec- tors weakened (Sweden and Denmark, Sweden and Finland). Other economies (Sweden and Norway) on the contrary became more depen- dent on each other. The results are robust to a wide variety of changes in specifications.

O presente trabalho teve como objetivos identificar os principais problemas de qualidade do açúcar granel e desenvolver um modelo econométrico para mensurar a probabilidade da recusa do produto, estimar os custos logísticos envolvidos na perda de qualidade, assim como os possíveis investimentos que poderiam contribuir para a redução nos custos. Para atender a este objetivo foram realizadas entrevistas e coleta de dados com agentes do setor sucroenergético e utilizado um modelo econométrico logit para investigar os fatores que influenciam na perda de qualidade do açúcar VHP e consequentemente a recusa de caminhões em terminais de transbordo e terminais portuários. Os resultados revelaram um aumento no número de veículos rejeitados por problemas de qualidade nas duas safras analisadas, sendo a cor do produto o item de maior participação, além da cor fora de especificação (os demais parâmetros analisados foram umidade, granulometria, teor de cinzas, resíduos insolúveis e polarização). A regressão logit indicou o tempo de armazenamento como um dos principais fatores que influenciam na perda de qualidade do açúcar, além da temperatura, época do ano e macrorregião produtora. Já as variáveis relacionadas ao tipo de centrifuga utilizada na indústria e à umidade relativa do ar não apresentaram coeficientes significativos. As recusas de carga nos terminais acarretam prejuízos para o setor, principalmente no que diz respeito aos valores gastos com o frete, uma vez que o caminhão tem que retornar para usina de origem, o produto ser recuperado e voltar novamente ao terminal de destino. Para diminuir esses prejuízos seriam necessários investimentos em armazéns graneleiros que permitissem o melhor escoamento do produto, impedindo que o açúcar permanecesse muito tempo estocado; porém, o valor necessário para a construção desse tipo de armazém normalmente é considerado inviável pelos tomadores de decisão do setor. Desta forma, para minimizar os prejuízos decorrentes da recusa do produto em virtude da perda de qualidade, é necessário um maior acompanhamento e monitoramento do açúcar armazenado. / The objectives of this study was to identify the main problems of bulk sugar quality and to develop an econometric model to measure the probability of product rejection, to estimate the logistics costs involved in the loss of quality, as well as the possible investments that could contribute to cost reduction. To meet this objective, we conducted interviews and data collection with agents from the sugarcane industry and used a logit econometric model to investigate the factors that influence the loss of VHP sugar quality and consequently the refusal of trucks at transshipment terminals and port terminals. The results showed an increase in the number of vehicles rejected due to quality problems in the two harvesting seasons that were analyzed, being the product color the item with the highest participation, besides the color not specified (the other parameters analyzed were moisture, grain size, ash content, Insoluble residues and polarization). The logit regression indicated the storage time as one of the main factors that influences the loss of sugar quality, besides the temperature, time of the year and producing macro-region. The other variables related to the type of centrifuge used in the industry and the relative humidity of the air did not present significant coefficients. Cargo denials at the terminals result in losses to the sector, especially in relation to the amounts spent on freight, once the truck has to return to the mill the product has to be recovered and to return to the destination terminal. In order to diminish such losses, it would be necessary to invest in bulk warehouses that would allow better disposal of the product, preventing the sugar from being stored for a long time. However the value needed for the construction of this type of warehouse is considered very high for many decision makers from the industry. In this way, to minimize the losses resulting from the refusal of the product due to the loss of quality, a closer monitoring of the stored sugar is necessary.

An economic literature concerns instruments to improve the preference elicitation methods for the reform-based governmental programs. We construct an instrument for the budget allocation method using a Cobb-Douglas functional form. We apply the instrument to the survey data which is collected for Swedish Recreational Fishing Industry to elicit the preferences for governmental management actions. We analyze the elasticity or weights in the instrument by the binary logit and censored regression models and by comparing the significant estimates by the gross and net effects we get results which increase credence to the instrument we apply. / I am heartily thankful to my supervisor, Thomas Laitila, whose guidance and support from the initial to the final level enabled me to develop the thesis.More, I offer my regards to Anders Lunander who supported me in any respect during the completion of the thesis.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how individuals with different characteristics make their choice-decisions when consuming STIGA table tennis blades, which are combinations of various attributes, such as price, control, attack, etc. It is expected that the general trend of choice behavior on this special commodity can be, at least to some extent, revealed. Data were collected using questionnaires sent to registered members of a table tennis club in China. The questionnaires included information and questions about individuals’ monthly income levels, ages, technique styles, etc. A multinomial logit model was then applied to analyze factors determining Chinese consumers’ choice behavior on STIGA table tennis blades. The results indicated that the main element influencing Chinese consumers’ choice of STIGA ping-pong blades was the technique style and other variables did not seem to influence the choice of table tennis blades. These results might be explained by the limited sample size as well as unmeasured and immeasurable factors. Thus, a more extensive research is needed to be conducted in the future.

We follow the approach of expressive voting and consider that voters with more extreme ideology can enjoy higher utility after voting. However, along with effect of ideology, voters also take the difference of his ideology and candidate¡¦s into account. Given the above assumptions, two candidates choose their ideology before voters decide whether and for whom to vote. Two candidates¡¦ ideology converges to the middle point if voters¡¦ utility generated by expressive voting approach is less important than by instrumental voting approach. In the opposite, two candidates¡¦ ideology diverge and the voters with mild ideology refuse to vote in point if voters¡¦ utility generated by expressive voting approach is more important. We examine the ANES data of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. The nested logit model is used to estimate the corresponding coefficients of voters¡¦ utility generated by expressive voting approach and instrumental voting approach. The data supports our conjecture that voters with more extreme ideology are more likely to cast their votes.

This dissertation contains two essays on the effect of welfare reform on child- birth, marriage, and divorce. In the first essay, I exploit the cross state variation in welfare reform implementation to identify its effect on birth rates. The results from multinomial logit models suggest that the welfare reform significantly increased the probability of marital births. The out-of-wedlock birth rates decreased but this effect is not significant. The strong work incentives decrease birth rates in both marital and non-marital statuses suggesting that bearing a child is not appealing for women who are more progressive in careers. However, the most aggressive welfare policy significantly increases marital birth as expected. Birth rates among teenage girls are not affected by the welfare reform. I further investigate the effect of the family cap policy. Using a semi-natural experiment, I compare the birth rate of women who already have had a second or higher order birth (treatment group) to women who have had one child (comparison group), in states with and without family caps. The difference in difference estimates reveal a strictly negative effect of family caps on the higher order birth rates as expected. In the second essay, I use reduced-form estimation and cross-state variation in timing of reform adoption to extract both mechanical and behavioral effects of welfare reform on marriage and divorce likelihood. I construct a flow measure of marriage and divorce by matching individuals in the Current Population Survey from March 1988B to 2002 and observing changes in marital status. I introduce a converse matching procedure to detect women who are not in the survey for two consecutive years. I find that the welfare reform has a significantly negative effect on marriage rates and an insignificant effect on divorce rates. The Difference-in-Difference estimates suggest that marriage among disadvantaged women is negatively affected by the welfare reform. I also provide a theoretical model to decompose the effect of welfare reform on marriage due to each of the components of the reform, i.e., time limits, work sanctions, earnings disregards, and maximum cash benefits. My results provide a novel explanation for the effects of work incentives and welfare restrictions on marriage.

The dawn of international banking has already sparked some of the most well known mergers in the financial industry. Following the recent merger waves of the major developed economies, Taiwan¡¦s industry also engages merger and acquisitions to pursue external growth. Firms may merge for various reasons and generates totally different result in shareholder¡¦s wealth. Thus, capture the factors which drive the merger activity is very critical issue to all the participants of Taiwan¡¦s equity market. The objective of this study is to analyze the determents of target selection in the merger and acquisition activity in Taiwan¡¦s financial industry. The subject what the research are going to study and development. There is acquired Cooperative Association what characteristics are owned. Logit regression is utilized to investigate a sample of 12 listed firms which engaged mergers after the government has passed the Financial Merger Institutions Law over the period from 2000 to 2007. Consistent with literature of merger and acquisitions, the empirical result suggests that the firms with weaker debt structure, good loan quality and Capital Adequacy, to become good targets.