Com o crescimento da população em áreas urbanas, o transporte coletivo assume um importante papel nos deslocamentos diários nas cidades brasileiras. No entanto, o grande volume de pessoas no entorno desses sistemas podem resultar em pontos críticos de segurança viária. Recentemente, as pesquisas sobre melhorias na segurança viária estão se direcionando para a investigação da relação entre o ambiente construído - isto é, padrões de uso do solo; desenho urbano; e sistemas de transporte - e acidentalidade. Porém, a relação entre os sistemas de transporte coletivo por ônibus e o ambiente construído ainda é pouco explorada. O ponto mais crítico em segurança identificado na literatura em sistemas de transporte coletivo são as estações de embarque e desembarque. Assim, esta dissertação tem como objetivo verificar a existência de relação entre elementos do ambiente construído com a ocorrência e severidade de acidentes viários no entorno de pontos de parada em sistemas prioritários para ônibus. Para isso, aplicou-se os modelos de regressão Binomial Negativo (NB), na análise de frequência de acidentes, e os modelos Logit Ordenado (OL) e Logit Multinomial (MNL), para a análise de severidade. No modelo de frequência de acidentes totais, identificou-se duas variáveis significativas e, no modelo estimado para atropelamentos, três variáveis. O modelo de severidade resultou em 19 variáveis significativas para acidentes totais e oito variáveis significativas para atropelamentos. As variáveis referentes ao envolvimento de motocicletas, automóveis, presença de interseção e uso diversificado do solo foram as mais recorrentes. O estudo possibilitou também avaliar as diferenças e vantagens entre os modelos ordenados e os não-ordenados. O modelo Logit Multinomial teve ajustes levemente melhores do que o Logit Ordenado. Ressalta-se, entretanto, que o ajuste do modelo não deve ser o único critério a se considerar na escolha de modelos para o estudo de severidade de acidentes. / Public transport has played an important role in daily commutes in Brazilian cities as population grows in urban areas. However, high volumes of pedestrians near those systems may result in critical safety issues. Recent studies on road safety improvements have sought for evidence on the relationship between built environment - land use patterns; urban design; and transportation systems - and traffic safety. Nevertheless, the relationship between traffic safety at bus priority systems and the built environment is still incipient. According to studies, the most critical safety issues related to public transport are the stations for boarding and alighting. Thus, this thesis aims to verify the relationship between built environment and incidence and severity of traffic crashes in the surroundings of bus priority systems. To do so, we applied Negative Binomial regression models (NB) for the frequency analysis, and the Ordered Logit (OL) and Multinomial Logit (MNL) models for severity analysis. NB models resulted in two significant variables for traffic crashes in general and three variables for pedestrian crashes. The severity model resulted in 19 significant variables overall crashes and eight significant variables for pedestrian crashes. Variables related to the involvement of motorcycles, automobiles, intersections and mixed land use were significant in majority of model estimations. The results allowed to evaluate the goodness of fit between ordered and unordered models. MNL had a slightly better adjustments compared to OL. Goodness of fit, however, should not be the only criterion for selecting a model to assess crash severity.

Ces dernières années, le développement continu des marques de distributeurs (MDD) a abouti à un marché composés de trois grands segments de consommateurs : (i) ceux qui sont fidèles aux marques nationales, (ii) aux marques de distributeurs et (iii) ceux qui combinent les deux. Pourquoi ce dernier groupe de consommateurs migrent-t-il d’une marque nationale vers une marque de distributeurs et inversement ? A notre connaissance, aucune étude n’a été menée sur cet aspect de la concurrence entre marque nationale et MDD. Les travaux de recherche en marketing ont surtout étudié les changements entre marques nationales ou le choix des MDD. Or, le comportement migratoire entre les deux types de marques peut représenter jusqu’à 20% des comportements d’achat (source : Panel MarketingScan). L’objet de cette thèse est donc de proposer un cadre théorique permettant de comprendre la migration entre les deux types de marques. Nous analysons l’influence des variables relatives à la marque (ou des références) et à la catégorie de produits tout en tenant compte des différences individuelles (observées et non observées) entre les ménages et les enseignes. Nous utilisons comme cadre empirique le panel Angevin de la Société MarketingScan. Nous élaborons pour cela un modèle de choix avec coefficients aléatoires et facteurs latents (Latent Factor Random coefficients Multinomial Logit Model) permettant de contrôler l’hétérogénéité entre les ménages. Les résultats montrent que le type de MDD (marque enseigne ou marque propre) a une influence à la fois sur la migration vers et le rachat des MDD. Le prix reste toujours important dans la concurrence entre les deux types de marques. Une plus grande disponibilité des références au niveau de la marque de distributeurs permet d’attirer plus de consommateurs. Toutefois, une forte présence de MDD réduit la satisfaction des consommateurs à l’égard de l’assortiment et les pousser à migrer vers les marques nationales. / For the last years, the consistent development of store brands or private labels has resulted in a market composed of three segments: customers who are national brand loyal, (ii) store brand loyal and (iii) those who combine store and national brands. So the question becomes: why does the latter group of consumers migrate from a national brand to a store brand and vice versa? To our knowledge, no study has been conducted about this aspect of national brand and private label competition. The research in marketing has mainly studied brand switching between national brands and the choice of store brand. However, migration between the two types of brand might account for up to 20% of the purchase behaviours (source: MarketingScan panel). The purpose of this dissertation is to suggest a theoretical framework to understand the migration between the two types of brands. We analyzed the influence of variables at the brand and SKU, and product category levels, while accounting for the (observed and unobserved) individual and store specific factors. Our empirical analysis is based on the panel data from MarketingScan. We developed a Latent Factor Random Coefficients Multinomial Logistic Model that allows us to control for unobserved heterogeneity. We showed that the type of store brand had an influence on both the migration and the behavioural loyalty to store brand. The price is still important in the competition between private labels and national brands. Greater availability of SKUs at the brand level promotes migration to store brands, which helps them capture additional purchases. Nevertheless, a strong presence of private labels in a product category reduces consumer satisfaction with the assortment and consequently causes households to migrate to national brands.

nÃo hà / Esta dissertaÃÃo efetuou uma anÃlise empÃrica, baseada nas infraÃÃes de trÃnsito registradas no cadastro de veÃculos tipo motocicletas e similares de atà 125cc, ocorridas no Estado do CearÃ, no perÃodo de 2010 a 2013. O objetivo foi avaliar as caracterÃsticas sociodemogrÃficas que contribuem para aumentar a ocorrÃncia de reincidÃncia das infraÃÃes de trÃnsito por motociclistas, de acordo com as variÃveis: sexo, idade e tempo de habilitaÃÃo, e; a taxa de motorizaÃÃo e sua implicaÃÃo no fluxo de trÃnsito nos municÃpios cearenses. Para tanto, utilizouse o modelo economÃtrico Logit, cuja base de dados foi fornecida pelo Departamento Estadual de TrÃnsito â DETRAN-CE e pelo Instituto de Pesquisa e EstratÃgia EconÃmica do Cearà - IPECE. O que se observou, no Estado do CearÃ, à que os resultados corroboram as evidÃncias da literatura internacional: os infratores de trÃnsito reincidentes sÃo, em sua maioria, jovens e do sexo masculino, o que indica a necessidade de polÃticas pÃblicas de prevenÃÃo, incluindo esses grupos especÃficos da populaÃÃo. AlÃm disso, a condiÃÃo de habilitaÃÃo indica que os motociclistas mais experientes, ou com mais tempo de habilitaÃÃo, sÃo os que tÃm maior probabilidade de reincidÃncia. Para as estimaÃÃes acerca da taxa de motorizaÃÃo, os resultados sugerem que os condutores que estÃo nos municÃpios com taxas de motorizaÃÃo superiores à taxa de referÃncia de 20% apresentam uma maior probabilidade de reincidirem nas infraÃÃes de trÃnsito. / This paper made an empirical analysis based on traffic violations recorded in type vehicle registration motorcycles and the like up to 125cc, occurred in the state of CearÃ, in the period 2010 to 2013. The objective was to assess sociodemographic characteristics that contribute to increase the occurrence of repeated traffic violations by motorcyclists, according to variables such as gender, age and time of qualification, and; motorization rate and its implication in traffic flow in Cearà municipalities. For this, we used the logit econometric model, whose database has been provided by the State Department of Motor Vehicles â DETRAN-CE and the Institute of Economic Research and Strategy of Cearà - IPECE. What was observed in the state of CearÃ, is that the results support the evidence of the international literature: the repeat traffic offenders are mostly young and male, which indicates the need for preventive policies, including these specific population groups. In addition, the driver's condition indicates that the more experienced riders, or longer clearance, are the ones who are more likely to recur. For the estimations about the motorization rate, the results suggest that drivers who are in municipalities with motorization rates above the 20% reference rate are more likely to re-offend in traffic violations.

Mobility is an undeniable issue for current and future elderly populations. The increasing popularity for retirees to live in rural communities makes this a particularly important issue in rural towns. When an elderly individual living in a rural community is no longer able to drive, issues that come with living in a rural area may be exacerbated, and the individual may experience a decrease in their quality of life. Although individuals may be able to use public transportation most existing options do not promote an independent lifestyle. Any updated rural transportation system benefiting the elderly would be funded by taxpayers. An understanding of the taxpayers' preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for transportation options, therefore, is essential. Few, if any economic studies have addressed this issue. The objectives of this research are to: (1) estimate economic willingness-to-pay (WTP) for public transportation options by using choice modeling techniques; and (2) better understand opinions related to public transportation for the elderly held by the general population as a whole and within different demographics. To complete these objectives, a choice survey was distributed to samples of three populations: residents of Atascosa County (located in south Texas); residents of Polk County (located in east Texas); and students at Texas A&M University. Respondents were presented with transportation options made of five attributes: addition to annual vehicle registration fee, days of operation, hours of operation, type of route, and senior citizen transportation fare discount. Results show both students and the general public value public transportation options and are willing to pay for specific transportation attributes. Respondents tended to prefer options which are more flexible than the less flexible attribute presented to them; however, respondents did not necessarily prefer the most flexible options. Students, generally, are willing to pay more for transportation attributes than county residents. Overall, both Atascosa and Polk County residents have similar WTP's, indicating both populations value rural public transportation similarly. The effects of socio-demographic variables on residents' decision to choose a transportation option appear to differ between the counties. These findings imply that while the influence of transportation attribute levels are consistent across counties, local input is important in customizing transportation systems to meet local expectations.

The number of elderly is increasing; to meet their transportation needs, it is important to clearly understand their travel patterns and preferences. Since travel patterns and preferences depend on socio-demographic and other factors, it is essential to identify these factors first to understand the travel behavior of the elderly. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the travel patterns and preferences of the elderly age 65 and above using 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. This thesis presents a detailed descriptive analysis of 2009 NHTS data to understand the travel patterns of the elderly. Along with a descriptive analysis, a multinomial logit model and a mixed- multinomial logit model are estimated to explore the factors associated with the overall travel preferences of the elderly and to identify individuals among the elderly who are the least mobile and at risk for social isolation. The analysis results indicate the differences in the trip characteristics between the elderly and non-elderly. Variation is found even among the different groups of the elderly. The model estimation results show the presence of different travel preferences among the elderly and identify those individuals among the elderly who are immobile for longer periods (e.g., a week) and at risk for social isolation. Elderly individuals with different travel preferences should be considered separately in research to determine the appropriate outcomes that can help transportation planners and policy makers improve planning and policy related to elderly individuals.

No description available.

Com o crescimento da população em áreas urbanas, o transporte coletivo assume um importante papel nos deslocamentos diários nas cidades brasileiras. No entanto, o grande volume de pessoas no entorno desses sistemas podem resultar em pontos críticos de segurança viária. Recentemente, as pesquisas sobre melhorias na segurança viária estão se direcionando para a investigação da relação entre o ambiente construído - isto é, padrões de uso do solo; desenho urbano; e sistemas de transporte - e acidentalidade. Porém, a relação entre os sistemas de transporte coletivo por ônibus e o ambiente construído ainda é pouco explorada. O ponto mais crítico em segurança identificado na literatura em sistemas de transporte coletivo são as estações de embarque e desembarque. Assim, esta dissertação tem como objetivo verificar a existência de relação entre elementos do ambiente construído com a ocorrência e severidade de acidentes viários no entorno de pontos de parada em sistemas prioritários para ônibus. Para isso, aplicou-se os modelos de regressão Binomial Negativo (NB), na análise de frequência de acidentes, e os modelos Logit Ordenado (OL) e Logit Multinomial (MNL), para a análise de severidade. No modelo de frequência de acidentes totais, identificou-se duas variáveis significativas e, no modelo estimado para atropelamentos, três variáveis. O modelo de severidade resultou em 19 variáveis significativas para acidentes totais e oito variáveis significativas para atropelamentos. As variáveis referentes ao envolvimento de motocicletas, automóveis, presença de interseção e uso diversificado do solo foram as mais recorrentes. O estudo possibilitou também avaliar as diferenças e vantagens entre os modelos ordenados e os não-ordenados. O modelo Logit Multinomial teve ajustes levemente melhores do que o Logit Ordenado. Ressalta-se, entretanto, que o ajuste do modelo não deve ser o único critério a se considerar na escolha de modelos para o estudo de severidade de acidentes. / Public transport has played an important role in daily commutes in Brazilian cities as population grows in urban areas. However, high volumes of pedestrians near those systems may result in critical safety issues. Recent studies on road safety improvements have sought for evidence on the relationship between built environment - land use patterns; urban design; and transportation systems - and traffic safety. Nevertheless, the relationship between traffic safety at bus priority systems and the built environment is still incipient. According to studies, the most critical safety issues related to public transport are the stations for boarding and alighting. Thus, this thesis aims to verify the relationship between built environment and incidence and severity of traffic crashes in the surroundings of bus priority systems. To do so, we applied Negative Binomial regression models (NB) for the frequency analysis, and the Ordered Logit (OL) and Multinomial Logit (MNL) models for severity analysis. NB models resulted in two significant variables for traffic crashes in general and three variables for pedestrian crashes. The severity model resulted in 19 significant variables overall crashes and eight significant variables for pedestrian crashes. Variables related to the involvement of motorcycles, automobiles, intersections and mixed land use were significant in majority of model estimations. The results allowed to evaluate the goodness of fit between ordered and unordered models. MNL had a slightly better adjustments compared to OL. Goodness of fit, however, should not be the only criterion for selecting a model to assess crash severity.

[pt] A escolha do modo de transporte de carga é uma questão crítica na modelagem da demanda por transporte. Este estudo utiliza a técnica de preferência declarada no sentido de analisar o transporte de carga no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, visando identificar quais são os fatores relevantes na escolha de modo de transporte (rodovia e ferrovia) por parte das empresas com atuação no Estado, na categoria de produtos de Carga Geral. O estudo utilizou o modelo Logit Multinominal com o objetivo de verificar a importância de fatores (custo, tempo, serviço, confiabilidade, disponibilidade e risco de roubo de carga) na escolha de modo por parte das empresas, e apontar quais medidas que podem ser adotadas no sentido de fomentar a multimodalidade no transporte de carga no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. / [en] Freight mode choice is a critical part in modeling freight demand. This study uses the stated preference techniques to analyze cargo transportation in the State of Rio de Janeiro, aiming to identify the relevant factors in the mode choice (road and railroad) by companies operating in the State in the category of General Cargo products. The study used the Multinominal Logit model in order to verify the importance of factors (cost, time, service, reliability, availability and cargo theft risk) in the mode choice by the companies, and to indicate which measures may be adopted to promote multimodality in freight transport in the State of Rio de Janeiro.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:45:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 487176 bytes, checksum: 436b120b2cbd4e5857633a395627e183 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-07-05 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Stylized fact is maintaining the rates of income inequality, especially in the 1990s in Brazil. One reason for this relative stability is the low educational intergenerational mobility and income. This dissertation aims to analyze the intergenerational mobility of education and its determinants and intergenerational mobility of income in Brazil comparing the Northeast and Southeast during the period 1992-2008. The dynamic analysis of intergenerational income and education was done through indicators in Markov transition matrices. Moreover, the determinant of intergenerational educational dynamics was obtained through an ordered logit model. The results suggest that during the study period there was a reduction in educational inequality and income in Brazil. In parallel, there is an increase in intergenerational mobility in income and educational characterized. The increase in educational mobility is characterized by an increase in average years of schooling and reduction of educational persistence, of illiterate parents. The growth of income mobility is characterized by an increase in average income and population reduction of the persistence of poor parents. The results of the parametric model indicate that there is a strong influence of geographic location, the issues of race and gender, and educational attributes of parents about the history of education of their children. / É fato consagrado a manutenção dos índices de desigualdade de renda, sobretudo na década de 1990, no Brasil. Uma das razões para esta relativa estabilidade é a baixa mobilidade intergeracional educacional e de renda. A presente dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a mobilidade intergeracional educacional e seus determinantes e a mobilidade intergeracional de renda no Brasil comparando as regiões Nordeste e Sudeste no período 1992 a 2008. A análise da dinâmica intergeracional educacional e de renda foi feita através de indicadores obtidos em matrizes de transição markovianas. Por outro lado, a análise dos determinantes da dinâmica educacional intergeracional foi realizada através de um modelo logit ordenado. Os resultados sugerem que ao longo do período de estudo houve uma redução da desigualdade educacional e de renda no Brasil. Em paralelo, observa-se um aumento da mobilidade intergeracional educacional e de renda caracterizado por uma expansão na média de anos de estudo e uma sensível redução da persistência educacional dos pais analfabetos. Os resultados do modelo paramétrico indicam que existe uma forte influência da localização geográfica, dos aspectos raciais e de sexo, além dos atributos educacionais dos pais sobre a trajetória de educacional dos filhos.

Com o crescimento da população em áreas urbanas, o transporte coletivo assume um importante papel nos deslocamentos diários nas cidades brasileiras. No entanto, o grande volume de pessoas no entorno desses sistemas podem resultar em pontos críticos de segurança viária. Recentemente, as pesquisas sobre melhorias na segurança viária estão se direcionando para a investigação da relação entre o ambiente construído - isto é, padrões de uso do solo; desenho urbano; e sistemas de transporte - e acidentalidade. Porém, a relação entre os sistemas de transporte coletivo por ônibus e o ambiente construído ainda é pouco explorada. O ponto mais crítico em segurança identificado na literatura em sistemas de transporte coletivo são as estações de embarque e desembarque. Assim, esta dissertação tem como objetivo verificar a existência de relação entre elementos do ambiente construído com a ocorrência e severidade de acidentes viários no entorno de pontos de parada em sistemas prioritários para ônibus. Para isso, aplicou-se os modelos de regressão Binomial Negativo (NB), na análise de frequência de acidentes, e os modelos Logit Ordenado (OL) e Logit Multinomial (MNL), para a análise de severidade. No modelo de frequência de acidentes totais, identificou-se duas variáveis significativas e, no modelo estimado para atropelamentos, três variáveis. O modelo de severidade resultou em 19 variáveis significativas para acidentes totais e oito variáveis significativas para atropelamentos. As variáveis referentes ao envolvimento de motocicletas, automóveis, presença de interseção e uso diversificado do solo foram as mais recorrentes. O estudo possibilitou também avaliar as diferenças e vantagens entre os modelos ordenados e os não-ordenados. O modelo Logit Multinomial teve ajustes levemente melhores do que o Logit Ordenado. Ressalta-se, entretanto, que o ajuste do modelo não deve ser o único critério a se considerar na escolha de modelos para o estudo de severidade de acidentes. / Public transport has played an important role in daily commutes in Brazilian cities as population grows in urban areas. However, high volumes of pedestrians near those systems may result in critical safety issues. Recent studies on road safety improvements have sought for evidence on the relationship between built environment - land use patterns; urban design; and transportation systems - and traffic safety. Nevertheless, the relationship between traffic safety at bus priority systems and the built environment is still incipient. According to studies, the most critical safety issues related to public transport are the stations for boarding and alighting. Thus, this thesis aims to verify the relationship between built environment and incidence and severity of traffic crashes in the surroundings of bus priority systems. To do so, we applied Negative Binomial regression models (NB) for the frequency analysis, and the Ordered Logit (OL) and Multinomial Logit (MNL) models for severity analysis. NB models resulted in two significant variables for traffic crashes in general and three variables for pedestrian crashes. The severity model resulted in 19 significant variables overall crashes and eight significant variables for pedestrian crashes. Variables related to the involvement of motorcycles, automobiles, intersections and mixed land use were significant in majority of model estimations. The results allowed to evaluate the goodness of fit between ordered and unordered models. MNL had a slightly better adjustments compared to OL. Goodness of fit, however, should not be the only criterion for selecting a model to assess crash severity.