The uninterrupted spread of malaria, besides its seasonal uncertainty, is due to the lack of suitable planning and intervention mechanisms and tools. Several studies have been carried out to understand the factors that affect the development and transmission of malaria, but these efforts have been largely limited to piecemeal specific methods, hence they do not offer comprehensive solutions to predict disease outbreaks. This thesis introduces a ’holistic’ approach to understand the relationship between climate parameters and the occurrence of malaria using both mathematical and computational methods. In this respect, we develop new climate-based models using mathematical, agent-based and data-driven modelling techniques. A malaria model is developed using mathematical modelling to investigate the impact of temperature-dependent delays. Although this method is widely applicable, but it is limited to the study of homogeneous populations. An agent-based technique is employed to address this limitation, where the spatial and temporal variability of agents involved in the transmission of malaria are taken into account. Moreover, whilst the mathematical and agent-based approaches allow for temperature and precipitation in the modelling process, they do not capture other dynamics that might potentially affect malaria. Hence, to accommodate the climatic predictors of malaria, an intelligent predictive model is developed using machine-learning algorithms, which supports predictions of endemics in certain geographical areas by monitoring the risk factors, e.g., temperature and humidity. The thesis not only synthesises mathematical and computational methods to better understand the disease dynamics and its transmission, but also provides healthcare providers and policy makers with better planning and intervention tools.

Le paludisme demeure un problème de santé majeur en Afrique subsaharienne. Le nombre limité d'antipaludiques, l’apparition de résistances et l’absence d’un vaccin efficace, font de la lutte anti-vectorielle (LAV) la principale stratégie préventive de cette maladie. Les méthodes actuelles de LAV visant à limiter ou à interrompre le développement du parasite chez le moustique vecteur, il est donc nécessaire d’améliorer notre compréhension des interactions entre le vecteur Anopheles, son environnement et le parasite Plasmodium. A Madagascar, Anopheles gambiae s.l. et Anopheles funestus sont les vecteurs majeurs de Plasmodium falciparum et de Plasmodium vivax. Anopheles mascarensis, espèce endémique, peut également être un vecteur important. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif premier de ma thèse a été d’approfondir les connaissances sur An. mascarensis à travers une revue. Les données collectées plaident davantage qu’An. mascarensis est un complexe d'espèces et permettent de poser les bases pour une analyse moléculaire ciblée. En parallèle, j’ai contribué à la mise en place de la première plateforme expérimentale de Madagascar pour infecter des anophèles par P. falciparum et P. vivax, afin d’évaluer leur compétence vectorielle. Enfin, en associant entomologie et immuno-parasitologie, nous avons analysé la contribution des vecteurs à la transmission du paludisme dans deux villages adjacents. L’ensemble des travaux réalisés durant de ma thèse contribue à une meilleure connaissance de la diversité de la transmission du paludisme à Madagascar. De plus, la mise en place de la plateforme expérimentale d’infection permettra l’analyse de la compétence des populations d’anophèles vecteurs. / Malaria remains a major health concern in sub-Saharan Africa. The limited number of antimalarial drugs, the emergence of resistances and the lack of an effective vaccine, make vector control the main preventive strategy for this disease. Current methods of vector control aim at limiting or interrupting parasite development in the vector mosquito. It is therefore necessary to improve our understanding on interactions between the Anopheles vector, its environment and the parasite Plasmodium. In Madagascar, Anopheles gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus are the major vectors of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Anopheles mascarensis, an endemic species, may also be an important vector. In this context, the main objective of my PhD was to deepen the knowledge on An. mascarensis through a review. The data collected indicate that An. mascarensis is a complex of sibling species. I could thus provide the foundation for targeted molecular analysis. In parallel, in order to evaluate their vector competence, I contributed in a major way to the establishment of the first experimental platform of Madagascar to infect anopheline mosquitoes by P. falciparum and P. vivax. Finally, combining entomology and immuno-parasitology, we analysed the contribution of vectors to malaria transmission in two neighbouring villages. All the work done during my PhD contributes to a better knowledge of the diversity of malaria transmission in Madagascar, especially on the effective contribution of the different vector species. In addition, the establishment of the experimental platform for infections will further allow the analysis of the competence of vector Anopheles populations.