This thesis is focused on Managed Futures, which is one of alternative investment instruments. Even though its popularity in developed countries rises, it is a rarity in Czech financial market. The main intent is to clarify specifications, historical roots, legal framework and other characteristic aspects. Part of the work will be devoted to the analysis of performance, risk, correlation with other investments and the possibility of inclusion in a portfolio of experienced Czech investor.

國際管理期貨基金之策略與市場呈低相關性，是校務基金、退休基金以及機構法人於投資組合中重要投資部位。由於管理期貨基金在歐美長期優異的績效表現，為投資人所青睞與重視，加上金融海嘯時優於股市的績效表現，於資產配置中加入管理期貨基金，確實能夠提升報酬率或降低投資組合的風險。 我國在 2009 年募集第一檔期貨信託基金至今，共發行六檔對不特定人募集之期貨信託基金，一檔對符合一定資格之人募集之期貨信託基金，統計至 2015 年 6 月 30 日止對不特定人募集之期貨信託基金規模，共計28.01億，對照國際管理期貨基金至2015年3月31日止規模3,302億美元，相較 2007 年規模 2,066 億美元，成長 60%，國內期貨信託基金產業發展屬萌芽階段。 本研究針對國際管理期貨基金發展及目前發行的六檔期貨信託基金分析比較，並探討個案公司發展期貨信託基金所面臨之議題。最後研究具體建議：(1)於適法性下開放境外避險基金; (2)放寬期貨信託基金之投資限制與(3)對符合一定資格條件募集之期貨信託基金比照證券投資信託私募基金，可採事後報備制。

Detta examensarbete analyserar effekterna av volatilitet och korrelation på trading strategier brukade av Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA´s). Denna studie bygger på en kvantitativ analys av data som insamlats från Barclay Hedge database. Studien har genomförts i samarbete med RPM Risk & Portfoliomanagement i Stockholm, Sverige. Traditionellt sett, när globala marknader visar på högre volatilitet än genomsnittet, har detta identifierats som ett tecken på en björnmarknad med negativ avkastning på aktier. Förhållandet mellan volatilitet och negativ avkastning på aktier var initialt uppmärksammat av Black år 1976. Förhållandet mellan volatilitet och korrelation mellan marknaderna har analyserats i denna uppsats och resultaten tyder på att högre nivåer av volatilitet för även med sig högre nivåer av korrelation. Den uppmäta korrelationen mellan volatilitet och korrelation var så hög som 0,7. CTA´s handlar så kallade Managed Futures, framtida kontrakt på råvaror, där varje kontrakt har en lång och kort position vilket gör det möjligt att nå en positiv avkastning även under hög volatilitet. De tre mest använda strategierna för CTA´s, short term trading (kortsiktig handel), fundamental handel och Trendföljande handel, presenteras i denna studie och deras möjlighet att bära positiv avkastning i en mycket volatil marknad härleds. Resultaten tyder på att en hög volatilitetsregim med hög korrelation gynnar den kortsiktiga handelsstrategin mer än fundamental och trendföljande handel. / This master thesis analyses the impacts of volatility and correlation on common strategies for Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). It is based on a quantitative analysis of data gathered from the Barclay Hedge database. The study was done in cooperation with RPM Risk and Portfolio Management based in Stockholm, Sweden. Traditionally, when global markets see higher levels of volatility this has been identified as a sign of a bear market with negative returns on equities. The relationship between volatility and negative returns on equities was first acknowledged by Black in 1976. The relationship between volatility and correlation between markets has been analyzed in this thesis and the findings suggest that higher levels of volatility brings with it higher levels of correlation. The correlation between volatility and correlation is as high as 0.7. CTAs trade future contracts where every contract has a long and short position which is making it possible to reach positive returns even under extreme volatility. The three most popular strategies for CTAs, Short Term trading, Fundamental trading and Trend Following, are presented in this study and their possibility to have positive returns in highly volatile environments is derived from the analysis. The findings suggest that in a high volatility regime with high correlation Short Term trading strategy has been the most profitable.

This study examines whether a trend following managed futures fund can improve its performance by changing its position sizing method. Trades for a simple trend following strategy was simulated on 47 futures contracts over the period 1990-2012, using varying methods for determining position size. Eleven different position sizing methods where investigated, among them Target Volatility, Omega Optimization and correlation ranking methods. Both methods previously detailed in academic papers as well as novel approaches was implemented, and compared to the baseline performance of the strategy. The results from this study show that the Target Volatility method, and to some degree Max Drawdown Minimize and Dynamic Stop Lock-In, improved the performance of strategy. The final recommendation for a trend following managed futures fund is to use Target Volatility as position sizing method, possibly in conjunction with Max Drawdown Minimize. / Denna studie undersöker huruvida en trendföljande managed futures-fond kan förbättra sina resultat genom att ändra positionsskalningsmetod. Handel med en enkel trendföljande strategi simulerades på 47 futureskontrakt åren 1990-2012, för olika metoder att för bestämma positionsstorlek. Elva positionsskalningmetoder undersöktes, exemplevis Target Volatility, Omega Optimization och metoder baserade i korrelationsrankning. Både tidigare beskrivna metoder och nya tillvägagångssätt testades, och jämfördes med den grundläggande strategin med avseende på risk och avkastning. Denna studies resultat visar att framförallt Target Volatility, och i viss uträckning Max Drawdown Minimize och Dynamic Stop Lock-In förbättrade nyckeltalen för den handlade strategin. Den slutgiltiga rekommendationen för en trendföljande managed futures-fond är att använda Target Volatility som positionsskalningsmetod, möjligtvis tillsammans med Max Drawdown Minimize.

The goal of this diploma thesis is to analyze the gold market and provide readers with the necessary information and context having an impact on the price of gold. The thesis consists of three chapters. First one deals in general with the commodity market and introduces the readers to commodity exchange issues such as trading commodities in commodity exchanges, motives of commodity trading as well as the specific characteristics of commodities. Second one concerns the detailed analysis of commodity investment tools that investors might use when they feel like getting an exposure to price movements of commodities. The last chapter gears towards an analysis of the gold market in today's super globalized world and depicts what fundamental factors have an impact on the price of gold. At last, I shall summarize existing pieces of knowledge and cast light on further gold price movements.

This thesis focuses on predicting trends in Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), also known as trend-following hedge funds. The paper applies a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for classifying trends. Additionally, by incorporating additional features, a regularized logistic regression model is used to enhance prediction capability. The model demonstrates success in identifying positive trends in CTA funds, with particular emphasis on precision and risk-adjusted return metrics. In the context of regularized regression models, techniques for statistical inference such as bootstrap resampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo are applied to estimate the distribution of parameters. The findings suggest the model's effectiveness in predicting favorable CTA performance and mitigating equity market drawdowns. For future research, it is recommended to explore alternative classification models and extend the methodology to different markets and datasets.