College students and emerging adults have been found to be at risk for smoking cigarettes, drinking to excess, using illicit drugs, driving dangerously, and engaging in risky sexual and delinquent behaviour. Psychosocial correlates (Sensation Seeking, peer behaviour, parent behaviour, and peer and parent anti-substance use messages) from three domains of influence (personality, parent, and peer) were examined together to provide a greater context for the occurrence of such health-risk behaviours. The strongest predictor(s) of each behaviour were identified to better inform intervention practices. Three groups were compared— 1) those who never tried substances, 2) those who tried substances in the past, and 3) those who continue to use substances at present, in a population of emerging adults. Self-report data was gathered from 203 Collèges d'Enseignement Général Et Professionnel (CEGEP) students in the Montreal region. Measures included: Reckless Behaviour Questionnaire, Reckless Driving Measure, Health Behaviour Survey, Sensation Seeking Scale—Form V, and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale. Results revealed that peer behaviour was the most significant predictor of substance use in emerging adults, whereas parent behaviour was only a significant predictor of reckless driving. Sensation Seeking, specifically Disinhibition, was found to predict more global reckless behaviours, including illegal activities, such as stealing or using marijuana (p < .01). Neither peer nor parent anti-substance messages were significantly related to any of the health-risk behaviours measured in this study. It would appear that health-risk behaviours tend to be related to the same underlying factors but to varying degrees. Intervention implications are discussed.

College students and emerging adults have been found to be at risk for smoking cigarettes, drinking to excess, using illicit drugs, driving dangerously, and engaging in risky sexual and delinquent behaviour. Psychosocial correlates (Sensation Seeking, peer behaviour, parent behaviour, and peer and parent anti-substance use messages) from three domains of influence (personality, parent, and peer) were examined together to provide a greater context for the occurrence of such health-risk behaviours. The strongest predictor(s) of each behaviour were identified to better inform intervention practices. Three groups were compared— 1) those who never tried substances, 2) those who tried substances in the past, and 3) those who continue to use substances at present, in a population of emerging adults. Self-report data was gathered from 203 Collèges d'Enseignement Général Et Professionnel (CEGEP) students in the Montreal region. Measures included: Reckless Behaviour Questionnaire, Reckless Driving Measure, Health Behaviour Survey, Sensation Seeking Scale—Form V, and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale. Results revealed that peer behaviour was the most significant predictor of substance use in emerging adults, whereas parent behaviour was only a significant predictor of reckless driving. Sensation Seeking, specifically Disinhibition, was found to predict more global reckless behaviours, including illegal activities, such as stealing or using marijuana (p < .01). Neither peer nor parent anti-substance messages were significantly related to any of the health-risk behaviours measured in this study. It would appear that health-risk behaviours tend to be related to the same underlying factors but to varying degrees. Intervention implications are discussed.

College students and emerging adults have been found to be at risk for smoking cigarettes, drinking to excess, using illicit drugs, driving dangerously, and engaging in risky sexual and delinquent behaviour. Psychosocial correlates (Sensation Seeking, peer behaviour, parent behaviour, and peer and parent anti-substance use messages) from three domains of influence (personality, parent, and peer) were examined together to provide a greater context for the occurrence of such health-risk behaviours. The strongest predictor(s) of each behaviour were identified to better inform intervention practices. Three groups were compared— 1) those who never tried substances, 2) those who tried substances in the past, and 3) those who continue to use substances at present, in a population of emerging adults. Self-report data was gathered from 203 Collèges d'Enseignement Général Et Professionnel (CEGEP) students in the Montreal region. Measures included: Reckless Behaviour Questionnaire, Reckless Driving Measure, Health Behaviour Survey, Sensation Seeking Scale—Form V, and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale. Results revealed that peer behaviour was the most significant predictor of substance use in emerging adults, whereas parent behaviour was only a significant predictor of reckless driving. Sensation Seeking, specifically Disinhibition, was found to predict more global reckless behaviours, including illegal activities, such as stealing or using marijuana (p < .01). Neither peer nor parent anti-substance messages were significantly related to any of the health-risk behaviours measured in this study. It would appear that health-risk behaviours tend to be related to the same underlying factors but to varying degrees. Intervention implications are discussed.

College students and emerging adults have been found to be at risk for smoking cigarettes, drinking to excess, using illicit drugs, driving dangerously, and engaging in risky sexual and delinquent behaviour. Psychosocial correlates (Sensation Seeking, peer behaviour, parent behaviour, and peer and parent anti-substance use messages) from three domains of influence (personality, parent, and peer) were examined together to provide a greater context for the occurrence of such health-risk behaviours. The strongest predictor(s) of each behaviour were identified to better inform intervention practices. Three groups were compared— 1) those who never tried substances, 2) those who tried substances in the past, and 3) those who continue to use substances at present, in a population of emerging adults. Self-report data was gathered from 203 Collèges d'Enseignement Général Et Professionnel (CEGEP) students in the Montreal region. Measures included: Reckless Behaviour Questionnaire, Reckless Driving Measure, Health Behaviour Survey, Sensation Seeking Scale—Form V, and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale. Results revealed that peer behaviour was the most significant predictor of substance use in emerging adults, whereas parent behaviour was only a significant predictor of reckless driving. Sensation Seeking, specifically Disinhibition, was found to predict more global reckless behaviours, including illegal activities, such as stealing or using marijuana (p < .01). Neither peer nor parent anti-substance messages were significantly related to any of the health-risk behaviours measured in this study. It would appear that health-risk behaviours tend to be related to the same underlying factors but to varying degrees. Intervention implications are discussed.

In this work, we focus on enhancing the efficacy of predictive modeling in operational management decision making in two different settings: Essay 1 focuses on demand forecasting for the companies and the second study utilizes longitudinal data to analyze the illicit drug seizure and overdose deaths in the United States. In Essay 1, we utilize an operational system (newsvendor model) to evaluate the forecast method outcome and provide guidelines for forecast method (the exponential smoothing model) performance assessment and judgmental adjustments. To assess the forecast outcome, we consider not only the common forecast error minimization approach but also the profit maximization at the end of the forecast horizon. Including profit in our assessment enables us to determine if error minimization always results in maximum profit. We also look at the different levels of profit margin to analyze their impact on the forecasting method performance. Our study also investigates how different demand patterns influence maximizing the forecasting method performance. Our study shows that the exponential smoothing model family has a better performance in high-profit products, and the rate of decrease in performance versus demand uncertainty is higher in a stationary demand environment.In the second essay, we focus on illicit drug overdose death rate. Illicit drug overdose deaths are the leading cause of injury death in the United States. In 2017, overdose death reached the highest ever recorded level (70,237), and statistics show that it is a growing problem. The age adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths in 2017 (21.7 per 100,000) is 9.6% higher than the rate in 2016 (19.8 per 100,000) (U. S. Drug Enforcement Administration, 2018, p. V). Also, Marijuana consumption among youth has increased since 2009. The magnitude of the illegal drug trade and its resulting problems have led the government to produce large and comprehensive datasets on a variety of phenomena relating to illicit drugs. In this study, we utilize these datasets to examine how marijuana usage among youth influence excessive drug usage. We measure excessive drug usage in terms of drug overdose death rate per state. Our study shows that illegal marijuana consumption increases excessive drug use. Also, we analyze the pattern of most frequently seized illicit drugs and compare it with drugs that are most frequently involved in a drug overdose death. We further our analysis to study seizure patterns across layers of heroin and cocaine supply chain across states. This analysis reveals that most active layers of the heroin supply chain in the American market are retailers and wholesalers, while multi-kilo traffickers are the most active players in the cocaine supply chain. In summary, the studies in this dissertation explore the use of analytical, descriptive, and predictive models to detect patterns to improve efficacy and initiate better operational management decision making.