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住宅市場價格與數量之關係花敬群 Unknown Date (has links)
市場研究首先面對的課題就是價格與供需,習慣上研究者多採取「價格與需求」或「價格與供給」的配對方式來處理,或者在價格與交易量同時決定的市場均衡假設下,直接以「價格」的討論做為市場研究的對象。
本研究認為「價格與供需」在既有的理論基礎之外,更重要的意義是提供一些較為適宜的研究切入點,然後讓研究者依據現實的觀察與理論的推演,來探討市場變數之間各種可能的關係。因此,本研究依據台灣住宅市場的主要特性,並且從價格與數量兩種變數的各項關係,建立分析台灣住宅市場的理論基礎與發展方向。
基本上,價格與供需數量是市場上最重要的資訊,分別表示著供需雙方進入是場所面對的成本與收益水準,以及供需雙方對當前價格的接受程度以及對未來價格的預期,市場上的任何變遷實際上都是市場參與者行為的結果。因此本研究先將住宅供幾者分為建商與一般售屋者,將需求者分為投資需求者與消費需求者,並且探討各類市場參與者的行為特性,以及在不同的市場景氣下,各種供需行為的加總對市場價格與交易量波動的影響,然後據此結果建立住宅市場景氣循環的個體行為基礎。這樣的分析方式,一方面可補充過去直接以總體經濟變數分析市場景氣循環的不足,同時也可以瞭解住宅市場景氣循環的個體面原因。
此外,因為住宅具有異質性,因此可從財貨類型、區位﹍等角度區隔為多種次市場,且在各種次市場的各種住宅價格與供需數量之間存在著不同的理論關係。然而此項課題涉及的研究領域十分廣泛,因此本研究僅探討台灣住宅市場最具特色的預售屋市場與成屋市場的關係。
本研究對此項課題是以住宅存量-流量模型為基礎,一方面納入預售市場於建築期間即可銷售的特性,以及國人以購屋為主的住宅消費習慣,同時探討住宅生產時間落差現象,進而建立解釋成屋市場與預售屋市場價格與數量關係的理論基礎。
另外,住宅次市場的概念引發了本研究對個別次市場之間,以及整體市場與次市場之間相互關係的討論,這是既有研究尚未深入探討的領域。在變數方面,本研究以住宅次市場「價格比例」與「市場規模」取代傳統的價格水準與交易戶數;在理論基礎上,則以封閉市場的假設條件下,探討整體市場與個別次市場的相互關係;關於各次市場之間,則假設彼此具有相互競爭與合作兩種關係,並以開放市場的概念來討論。
此項研究課題對重新建構住宅市場的理論體系具有十分重要的意義。此項理論關係,一方面打破過去將單一住宅次市場視為封閉體系的研究假設,提出各住宅次市場之間的橫向關係,以及次市場與整體市場的縱向關係。更重要的是,可以透過此項理論結構探討住宅市場資源(金)在各個次市場的配置關係與原因,對解釋台灣住宅市場的亂象深具意義。
在前述的理念體系與理論基礎下,本研究進行各項理論上的推演與實證分析,所得結果說明如下:
一、從住宅市場供需雙方行為特性配合市場景氣循環過程的影響得知:在景氣循環過程中,住宅供需雙方的行為結果,將使得市場價格與交易量均衡點的移動軌跡呈現逆時針旋轉的趨勢。另經由單根檢定與共積檢定,發現台北市住宅價格波動會對交易量脫離長期均衡時能夠產生調整的功能;然而,當市場價格脫離長期均衡時,交易量反而是朝發散的方向波動,顯示台北市住宅市場的投資需求以及投機的影響確實十分明顯。
二、從成屋與預售屋市場之價格與供給量的關係,配合國人偏好購屋以及住宅生產期間長的特性,重新界定住宅存量市場與流量市場的理論結構,並修正住宅存量-流量模型。實證結果顯示,台北市成屋市場與預售屋市場的價格與供給量的關係,並不完全符合存量-流量模型。
此外,成屋與預售屋市場的價格波動具有促進市場向長期均衡收斂的功能,且預售屋市場價格的調整速率高於成屋市場,顯示預售屋制度有提昇市場效率的作用。但是預售屋供給量並無法發揮調節成屋市場供需落差的功能,顯示台北市住宅供給量資訊的市場意義仍未明顯發揮,這也是為何近年來市場餘屋大量增加下,市場價格下跌卻十分有限的原因之一。
三、本研究假設整體市場規模是由個別次市場規模加總而來,而非假設整體市場規模固定,再分配到個別次市場之中,並以「價格比例」與「市場規模」的相互影響關係,建立住宅空間次市場相互影響關係的靜態與比較靜態理論基礎。由理論分析得知,住宅空間次市場的價格比例與市場規模是相互連動的,且各住宅次市場同時受到整體市場景氣趨勢的同向波動影響,以及相互競爭的反向波動影響。
實證結果顯示,台北市與台北縣住宅空間次市場的規模之間並不是純然的競爭關係,而是呈現齊漲齊跌的情況。顯示台北市縣住宅市場的競爭程度低於共同反應預期景氣的相互拉抬合作程度。此外,在住宅價格比例長期遞減趨勢下,台北市住宅市場的規模將會逐漸縮減,台北縣住宅市場規模則持續擴大,且兩次市場住宅價格比例也將逐漸持續降低。 / This dissertation combined by three relative essays. In the first paper I analyze the relationship between price and volume of housing market in Taiwan. The analysis suggests a counter-clock cyclical pattern of housing price and volume in the standard price-quantity plane. Empirical results through cointegration tests confirm our analysis that, in the long run, the fluctuation of Taipei's housing transaction volume causes the housing price to fluctuate.
In the second paper I discusses the relationship between existing and pre-sales housing market. Basically, existing housing market is similar as spot market, pre-sales housing market is similar to futures or forwards market (Chang & Ward, 1993). Restated, the goods of pre-sales housing market are the housing units under construction. We modify the stock-flow model of Fisher(1992) and DiPasquale & Wheaton(1992, 1994) to analyze the price-volume relationship between existing housing market and pre-sales housing market.
By the empirical test of Taiwan's housing market, the consequences imply that pre-sales market price adjustment rate to the long-run equilibrium price is rapid than the price adjustment rate in existing housing market. In other words, the pre-sales system can improve the market efficiency. The result of supply adjustment rate is insignificant, which implying that housing market is basically influenced by price not by volume in Taiwan.
The final paper established the price, volume and mutual interrelation basis through the housing price ratio and market size to provide housing market framework researchers a new point. Then I conducted an empirical analysis of the Taipei City and Taipei County housing markets. Finding that the competition between the two sub-markets is low. Furthermore, there is a signification correlation between market size and price ratio fluctuation, and the price ratio is a better of market economical cycle indicator than price fluctuation.
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Destination segmentation: a recommended two-step approachTkaczynski, Aaron January 2009 (has links)
[Abstract]Market segmentation has been identified in the tourism marketing literature as an effective tool that can be used by management to meet the needs of a market more efficiently and effectively. It has been widely used by researchers seeking to develop tourism segments. Historically, most segmentation studies have developed tourism profiles at a destination using 1) a visitor questionnaire survey developed from studies in the literature or 2) secondary data. Very little research has taken a stakeholder approach to destination segmentation, despite many authors arguing the importance of utilising a stakeholder approach for destination management and marketing purposes. This research proposes a two-step approach to destination segmentation. It details this approach using one Australian destination. The two-step approach to segmentation begins with firstly understanding how tourism stakeholders at a destination segment their market before surveying tourists for the purposes of identifying segments. In contrast to previous tourist-focused segmentation studies, the two-step approach recommended and detailed in this study considers both tourism stakeholders and tourists. The segments devised from the proposed approach are then compared and contrasted with segments currently utilised by the destination marketing organisation (DMO). Step one involved interviewing 14 tourism stakeholders to determine how they segment the market. Based on these findings, a questionnaire survey was developed and data was collected from 852 tourists. This represented step two of the approach. Three tourism segments were identified through cluster analysis. Only one of these three segments was comparable with the segments defined by the DMO. The other two were not considered in the DMO segmentation. These segments represented over half of all tourists in the sample. Based on the sample in this study, the DMO segments target less than a quarter of the types of tourists visiting the destination. Contributions to theory and practice were identified. Firstly, it was recognised that different tourism stakeholders attract different tourists, not all stakeholders segment their market, and some stakeholders do not adhere to segments targeted by the DMO which may lead to an inconsistent message in the market. Secondly, the two-step approach is a new method incorporating a stakeholder view, which gives a more holistic view and a richer description for the segments obtained when compared with academic and practitioner segmentation approaches. The two-step approach can be utilised at other tourist destinations. The two-step approach to segmentation is capable of assisting tourism marketers to target more of the tourists frequenting the destination. This study suggests that many dollars may be wasted targeting tourists that are not likely to travel to the destination and not targeting those who would. Future research should be conducted at alternative destinations to further the understanding of the recommended two-step approach to segmentation.
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The sensitivity of returns of non-bank financial institutions to the fixed income and equity markets.Cheong, Chee Seng January 2009 (has links)
Researchers have over-concentrated on the relationship between bank stock returns and interest rate changes without paying much attention to the impact of interest rates on non-bank financial institutions, in particular the insurance and real estate industries. This research attempts to examine the sensitivity and importance of interest rates and stock market price behaviour on non-bank financial institutions across three countries: the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The results provide a different perspective on the relationship non-bank financial institutions have with the fixed income and equity markets, and sheds new light on their long-run interaction. For the insurance market, interest rate movements seem to be just as important as the stock market in explaining the variation of insurance portfolio returns in the United States. However, there is only a weak relationship between interest rate changes and insurance portfolio returns in the United Kingdom and Australia. The liquidity problem in the United Kingdom and small sample size issues in Australia may have influenced the final results. In addition, size and profitability of the insurance companies do influence the significance of interest rate coefficients. This suggests that the financial makeup of a firm can modify or influence the sensitivity of stock returns towards interest rate changes. For the securitised property market, once structural breaks are accounted for, the results show that securitised property is driven by both interest rate and stock market changes, regardless of the type of financial institutions being examined. Evidence also points to companies with different leverage ratios and companies that are tax-exempt entities are still all influenced by both the equity and fixed income markets over the long-run period, although the influence these factors have does vary across time. A major contribution of this study clearly points to the relative weightings that portfolio managers may now consider to be appropriate with regard to their holdings of bonds, equities and non-bank financial institutions in their portfolios for both their tactical and strategic asset allocations. For example, it may not be a wise decision to invest significant amounts of capital in both securitised properties and fixed income securities given that both instruments are co-integrated in the long-run. Although this research was primarily conducted prior to the current economic situation, some of the major conclusions from this research are particularly relevant today. Moreover, with better understanding of the sensitivity among security prices and various financial risk factors, financial managers are able to manage and control their companies’ risk exposure towards interest rate risk and stock market conditions more effectively and efficiently. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1371959 / Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Adelaide, Business School, 2009
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Corporate disclosure and investor recognition /Östberg, Per, January 2005 (has links)
Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005.
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Market revolution : the path to more efficient foreign exchange market /Chan, Kin-pun. January 1994 (has links)
Thesis (M.B.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 94-95).
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Essays on emerging market finance /Zhang, Jianhua, January 1999 (has links)
Thesis (doctoral)--Göteborgs universitet, 1999. / Includes bibliographical references.
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The federal funds market and the overnight eurodollar market /Lee, Young-Sook. January 2000 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2000. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Mobile phone survey methodology in ChinaSun, Xiaoyin. January 2009 (has links)
Thesis (M. Phil.)--University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-103) Also available in print.
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Financial Market Volatility and JumpsHuang, Xin, January 2007 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Duke University, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references.
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The Korean stock market structure, behavior, and test of market efficiency /Koh, Sung Soo. January 1989 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--City University, London, 1989. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 262-279).
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