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The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon detected as anomalies in zonal winds, convection and cloudiness. This perturbation has a definitive timescale of about thirty to sixty days, allowing its signal to be extracted from background data. The Madden-Julian Oscillation originates over the western Indian Ocean and generates a convective region which moves east along the equatorial region. This perturbation is thought to contribute to the timing and intensity of the eastern hemisphere monsoons, the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation and tropical storms and cyclones. The current understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is that it restricts the bulk of its' influence to the tropics, however some evidence suggested that the impact is more extensive. Analysis of about 30 years of data showed significant modulation of rainfall by the equatorial passage of the MJO. The real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation Index was used to estimate the location and amplitude of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and forms the basis of the basic rainfall prediction tool developed. The method developed here clearly linked the low latitude passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with suppressed and enhanced rainfall events in the Australasian region and beyond. A rudimentary forecasting capability at the intraseasonal time scale has been developed suitable for assisting Australian agricultural sector. A subsequent and independent analysis of global mean sea level pressure anomalies provided evidence of teleconnections between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and higher latitude atmospheric entities. These anomalies confirm the existence of teleconnections capable of producing the rainfall pattern outputs. The MJO is strongly influenced by the season. However the seasonally dependant analysis of rainfall with respect to the Madden Julian Oscillation conducted was inconclusive, suggesting aspects of the MJO influence still require clarification. Considering the importance of rainfall variability to the Australian agricultural sector the forecasting tool developed, although basic, is significant.

The electromagnetic (EM) bias is the largest source of error in the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellite sea surface height (SSH) estimates. Due to incomplete understanding of the physical processes which cause the bias, current operational models are based on empirical relationships between the bias wind speed and significant wave height. These models reduce RMS estimation errors of the EM bias to approximately 4 cm. To improve EM bias estimation the correlation between the bias and RMS long wave slope is studies using data from tower-based experiments in the Gulf of Mexico and Bass Straight, Australia. Models based on significant wave height and RMS slope are more accurate than models based on wave height and wind speed by at least 50% in RMS error between predicted and ground truth bias values. Nonparametric models have been proposed as a method to reduce the variability of EM bias estimates. Using tower data, nonparametric models developed from wind speed and significant wave height measurements are shown to provide some improvement over parametric models. It is also shown that the historical discrepancy between satellite and tower EM bias measurements is reduced by nonparametric modeling. A validity study of rough surface scattering models is conducted for surfaces with Gaussian and power law power spectra. Models in the study include physical optics (PO), geometrical optics, small perturbation method, and small slope approximation. Due to the prevalence of the PO approximation, particular emphasis is placed on the development of a validity criterion for the PO model. An empirical study of the PO approximation shows that the validity of the model is more accurately described by the RMS wave slope than the classic surface curvature criterion for surfaces with a Gaussian power spectrum. For surfaces with a power law PSD, the accuracy of the PO approximation is related to the significant slope (RMS surface height/wavelength of the dominant spectral peak). The validity of other models in the study are also shown to be well approximated by bounds on surface slope. An EM bias model is derived using the physical optics scattering model, hydrodynamic modulation, and non-Gaussian long wave surface statistics. Using a modulation transfer function, the hydrodynamic modulation of small wave heights is shown to be linearly related to the long wave RMS slope. The resulting EM bias model expresses the relative bias as a function of the long wave surface parameters RMS wave slope, surface skewness, and tilt modulation. Coefficients of the long wave parameters are determined by the short ocean waves, and provide insight into the physical mechanisms that cause the bias. From measured values of the ocean surface profile, estimated values of the bias are computed from the bias model. A comparison of these estimated values with in situ EM bias measurements shows a strong correlation between the estimated and measured values. Nadir and off-nadir measurements of the EM bias collected during the BYU Off-Nadir Experiment (Y-ONE) are presented. The in situ measurements are compared with bias estimates computed from an off-nadir generalization of the nadir EM bias model. From theoretical and experimental bias measurements a model of the angular dependence of the bias is developed as a function of the normalized bias at nadir.

Um estudo sobre a compatibilidade de um geóide gravimétrico recente com o nível médio do mar no Datum altimétrico do Sistema Geodésico Brasileiro (SGB), foi realizado. A metodologia usada consiste na comparação do geóide gravimétrico com o nível médio do mar, materializado pelo marégrafo de Imbituba (SC), e análise dos desníveis entre os marégrafos da costa brasileira em relação ao de Imbituba, determinados por nivelamento geométrico e dados oceanográficos. A unificação de Data altimétricos, investigada em vários centros de pesquisas geodésicas, visa homogeneizar altitudes ortométricas em escalas regional e global através de técnicas espaciais de posicionamento e modelos geoidais gravimétricos. Entre as propostas para a unificação de Data altimétricos, a utilização de modelos geoidais gravimétricos vem se mostrando adequada tanto do ponto de vista teórico como prático. Assim, foi determinada a componente sistemática no Datum de Imbituba, a partir da comparação de um geóide gravimétrico da América do Sul, obtido através da colocação por mínimos quadrados, e o geóide GPS/nivelamento, determinado através dos dados da Rede GPS do Sul/Sudeste do Brasil (RGSB). Para representar a componente sistemática no Datum altimétrico brasileiro, foram usados três formas: 1) determinação da componente sistemática na RN fundamental da RAFB (RN 4X), 2) cálculo da média ponderada da componente sistemática a partir das RNs mais próximas ao Datum, e 3) modelagem da componente sistemática usando modelo matemático da transformação de similaridade a partir de todos os dados da RGSB. Os resultados, obtidos no cálculo do nível médio do mar a partir de dados oceanográficos, mostram que as diferenças em relação ao marégrafo de Imbituba são, em grande parte, causadas por mudanças das características oceanográficas (salinidade, temperatura, densidade e pressão) ao longo da costa. A remoção da componente sistemática, obtida no Datum, diminuiu significativamente a diferença entre os geóides gravimétrico e GPS/nivelamento nas RNs da RAFB; entretanto o ajuste da componente sistemática, através da transformação de similaridade, utilizando todos os dados da RGSB, apresentou os melhores resultados na compatibilização dos geóides gravimétricos e GPS/nivelamento. ix / A study on the compatibility of a recent gravimetric geoid with the mean sea level in altimetric Datum of the Sistema Geodésico Brasileiro (SGB) was accomplished. The used methodology consists in comparing gravimetric geoid with mean sea level, at the tide gauge of Imbituba (SC), and the analysis of differences among tide gauges of Brazilian coast with respecto Imbituba, obtained by geometric levelling and oceanographic data. The unification of altimetric Data, investigated in several geodetic research centres, aiming the standardization of orthometric heights in regional and global scales by using spatial positioning techniques, and gravimetric geoid models. Among the suggestions for the altimetric Data unification, the use of gravimetric geoid models is adequate in both, theoretical and practical points of view. Thus, a systematic component at Imbituba Datum was determined by comparing a South American gravimetric geoid, obtained by least-squares collocation, and GPS/levelling geoid, determined at stations of the Rede GPS no Sul/Sudeste do Brasil (RGSB). To represent the systematic component in Brazilian altimetric Datum, three aproaches were used: 1) determining the systematic component at the fundamental benchmark of the RAFB (RN 4X); 2) computing the weighted mean from the stations closer to the Datum, and 3) modelling the systematic component by using the similarity transformation model from all stations of the RGSB, The results of mean sea level, computed from oceanographic data, show that differences with respect to Imbituba tide gauge are mostly due to oceanographic characteristics, (salinity, temperature, density, and pressure) along the coast. The removal of systematic component at Datum, has significantly reduced the difference between gravimetric and GPS/levelling geoids; however, the adjustment of systematic component by using the similarity transformation model, has shown the best results in representing the differences between gravimetric and GPS/levelling geoids.

Um estudo sobre a compatibilidade de um geóide gravimétrico recente com o nível médio do mar no Datum altimétrico do Sistema Geodésico Brasileiro (SGB), foi realizado. A metodologia usada consiste na comparação do geóide gravimétrico com o nível médio do mar, materializado pelo marégrafo de Imbituba (SC), e análise dos desníveis entre os marégrafos da costa brasileira em relação ao de Imbituba, determinados por nivelamento geométrico e dados oceanográficos. A unificação de Data altimétricos, investigada em vários centros de pesquisas geodésicas, visa homogeneizar altitudes ortométricas em escalas regional e global através de técnicas espaciais de posicionamento e modelos geoidais gravimétricos. Entre as propostas para a unificação de Data altimétricos, a utilização de modelos geoidais gravimétricos vem se mostrando adequada tanto do ponto de vista teórico como prático. Assim, foi determinada a componente sistemática no Datum de Imbituba, a partir da comparação de um geóide gravimétrico da América do Sul, obtido através da colocação por mínimos quadrados, e o geóide GPS/nivelamento, determinado através dos dados da Rede GPS do Sul/Sudeste do Brasil (RGSB). Para representar a componente sistemática no Datum altimétrico brasileiro, foram usados três formas: 1) determinação da componente sistemática na RN fundamental da RAFB (RN 4X), 2) cálculo da média ponderada da componente sistemática a partir das RNs mais próximas ao Datum, e 3) modelagem da componente sistemática usando modelo matemático da transformação de similaridade a partir de todos os dados da RGSB. Os resultados, obtidos no cálculo do nível médio do mar a partir de dados oceanográficos, mostram que as diferenças em relação ao marégrafo de Imbituba são, em grande parte, causadas por mudanças das características oceanográficas (salinidade, temperatura, densidade e pressão) ao longo da costa. A remoção da componente sistemática, obtida no Datum, diminuiu significativamente a diferença entre os geóides gravimétrico e GPS/nivelamento nas RNs da RAFB; entretanto o ajuste da componente sistemática, através da transformação de similaridade, utilizando todos os dados da RGSB, apresentou os melhores resultados na compatibilização dos geóides gravimétricos e GPS/nivelamento. ix / A study on the compatibility of a recent gravimetric geoid with the mean sea level in altimetric Datum of the Sistema Geodésico Brasileiro (SGB) was accomplished. The used methodology consists in comparing gravimetric geoid with mean sea level, at the tide gauge of Imbituba (SC), and the analysis of differences among tide gauges of Brazilian coast with respecto Imbituba, obtained by geometric levelling and oceanographic data. The unification of altimetric Data, investigated in several geodetic research centres, aiming the standardization of orthometric heights in regional and global scales by using spatial positioning techniques, and gravimetric geoid models. Among the suggestions for the altimetric Data unification, the use of gravimetric geoid models is adequate in both, theoretical and practical points of view. Thus, a systematic component at Imbituba Datum was determined by comparing a South American gravimetric geoid, obtained by least-squares collocation, and GPS/levelling geoid, determined at stations of the Rede GPS no Sul/Sudeste do Brasil (RGSB). To represent the systematic component in Brazilian altimetric Datum, three aproaches were used: 1) determining the systematic component at the fundamental benchmark of the RAFB (RN 4X); 2) computing the weighted mean from the stations closer to the Datum, and 3) modelling the systematic component by using the similarity transformation model from all stations of the RGSB, The results of mean sea level, computed from oceanographic data, show that differences with respect to Imbituba tide gauge are mostly due to oceanographic characteristics, (salinity, temperature, density, and pressure) along the coast. The removal of systematic component at Datum, has significantly reduced the difference between gravimetric and GPS/levelling geoids; however, the adjustment of systematic component by using the similarity transformation model, has shown the best results in representing the differences between gravimetric and GPS/levelling geoids.

Le niveau de la mer est une des variables climatiques essentielles dont la variabilité résulte de nombreuses interactions complexes entre toutes les composantes du système climatique sur une large gamme d'échelles spatiales et temporelles. Au cours du XXème siècle, les mesures marégraphiques ont permis d'estimer la hausse du niveau de la mer global entre 1,6 mm/an et 1,8 mm/an. Depuis 1993, les observations faites par les satellites altimétriques indiquent une hausse du niveau de la mer plus rapide de 3,3 mm/an. Grâce à leur couverture quasi-globale, elles révèlent aussi une forte variabilité du niveau de la mer à l'échelle régionale, parfois plusieurs fois supérieure à la moyenne globale du niveau de la mer. Compte tenu de l'impact très négatif de l'augmentation du niveau de la mer pour la société, sa surveillance, la compréhension de ses causes ainsi que sa prévision sont désormais considérées comme des priorités scientifiques et sociétales majeures. Dans cette thèse, nous validons d'abord les variations du niveau de la mer mesurées par la nouvelle mission d'altimétrie satellitaire, SARAL-AltiKa, en comparant les mesures avec celles de Jason- 2 et des marégraphes. Un autre volet de cette première partie de thèse a consisté à estimer les parts respectives des facteurs responsables des variations du niveau de la mer depuis 2003 en utilisant des observations issues de l'altimétrie satellitaire (missions altimétrique Jason-1, Jason-2 et Envisat), de la mission GRACE, et des profils de température et salinité de l'océan par les flotteurs Argo. Une attention particulière est portée à la contribution de l'océan profond non 'vue' par Argo. Nous montrons que les incertitudes dues aux approches du traitement des données et aux erreurs systématiques des différents systèmes d'observation nous empêchent encore d'obtenir des résultats précis sur cette contribution. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, en utilisant les données de reconstruction du niveau de la mer dans le passé, nous étudions la variabilité régionale du niveau de la mer et estimons sa hausse totale (composante régionale plus moyenne globale) de 1950 à 2009 dans trois régions vulnérables: l'océan Indien, la mer de Chine méridionale et la mer des Caraïbes. Pour les sites où l'on dispose de mesures du mouvement de la croûte terrestre par GPS, nous évaluons la hausse locale du niveau de la mer relatif (hausse du niveau de la mer totale plus mouvement de la croûte locale) depuis 1950. En comparant les résultats de ces trois régions avec une étude précédente sur le Pacifique tropical, nous constatons que le Pacifique tropical présente la plus forte amplitude des variations du niveau de la mer sur la période d'étude. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, nous nous concentrons par conséquent sur le Pacifique tropical. Nous analysons les rôles respectifs de la dynamique océanique, des modes de variabilité interne du climat et du forçage anthropique sur les structures de la variabilité régionale du niveau de la mer du Pacifique tropical depuis 1993. Nous montrons qu'une partie importante de la variabilité régionale du niveau de la mer du Pacifique tropical peut être expliquée par le mouvement vertical de la thermocline en réponse à l'action du vent. En tentant de séparer le signal correspondant au mode de variabilité interne du climat de celui de la hausse régionale du niveau de la mer dans le Pacifique tropical, nous montrons également que le signal résiduel restant (c'est-à-dire le signal total moins le signal de variabilité interne) ne correspond probablement pas à l'empreinte externe du forçage anthropique. / Sea level is an integrated climate parameter that involves interactions of all components of the climate system (oceans, ice sheets, glaciers, atmosphere, and land water reservoirs) on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Over the 20th century, tide gauge records indicate a rise in global sea level between 1.6mm/yr and 1.8 mm/yr. Since 1993, sea level variations have been measured precisely by satellite altimetry. They indicate a faster sea level rise of 3.3 mm/yr over 1993-2015. Owing to their global coverage, they also reveal a strong regional sea level variability that sometimes is several times greater than the global mean sea level rise. Considering the highly negative impact of sea level rise for society, monitoring sea level change and understanding its causes are henceforth high priorities. In this thesis, we first validate the sea level variations measured by the new satellite altimetry mission, SARAL-AltiKa by comparing the measurements with Jason-2 and tide gauge records. We then attempt to close the global mean sea level budget since 2003 and estimate the deep ocean contribution by making use of observational data from satellite altimetry, Argo profiles and GRACE mission. We show that uncertainties due to data processing approaches and systematic errors of different observing systems still prevent us from obtaining accurate results. In the second part of the thesis, by making use of past sea level reconstruction, we study the patterns of the regional sea level variability and estimate climate related (global mean plus regional component) sea level change over 1950-2009 at three vulnerable regions: Indian Ocean, South China and Caribbean Sea. For the sites where vertical crustal motion monitoring is available, we compute the total relative sea level (i.e. total sea level rise plus the local vertical crustal motion) since 1950. On comparing the results from these three regions with already existing results in tropical Pacific, we find that tropical Pacific displays the highest magnitude of sea level variations. In the last part of the thesis, we therefore focus on the tropical Pacific and analyze the respective roles of ocean dynamic processes, internal climate modes and external anthropogenic forcing on tropical Pacific sea level spatial trend patterns since 1993. Building up on the relationship between thermocline and sea level in the tropical region, we show that most of the observed sea level spatial trend pattern in the tropical Pacific can be explained by the wind driven vertical thermocline movement. By performing detection and attribution study on sea level spatial trend patterns in the tropical Pacific and attempting to eliminate signal corresponding to the main internal climate mode, we further show that the remaining residual sea level trend pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal. In addition, we also suggest that satellite altimetry measurement may not still be accurate enough to detect the anthropogenic signal in the 20 year tropical Pacific sea level trends.

Depuis le début des années 1990 on suit l'évolution globale du niveau de la mer grâce aux satellites altimétriques. Ils observent une hausse du niveau moyen global de la mer (GMSL) de 3.4 ± 0.4 mm/an sur la période 1993-2016 (ce qui représente le double de ce qui a été observé au cours du 20ème siècle par les marégraphes, hausse à 1.7 mm/an entre 1900 et 1990). Le GMSL présente aussi des fluctuations interannuelles qui peuvent atteindre quelques millimètres, surtout pendant les épisodes ENSO. Cette hausse n'est pas régionalement uniforme : elle a été 3 fois plus rapide que la hausse moyenne globale dans certaines zones entre 1993 et 2016. Au cours du 21ème siècle, on s'attend à une hausse accrue du GMSL pouvant aller jusqu'à 1 m à l'horizon 2100, avec une forte variabilité régionale. Il est donc important de comprendre l'évolution actuelle du niveau des océans qui constitue une menace sérieuse pour de nombreuses régions côtières basses souvent très peuplées. Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le contexte du projet niveau de la mer CCI (Climate Change Initiative) de l'Agence Spatiale Européenne (ESA) ayant pour objectif de fournir de meilleurs produits du niveau de la mer combinant les missions Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, ERS-1/2 et Envisat. L'objectif premier de cette thèse est de valider ces produits SL_CCI du niveau de la mer en utilisant différentes approches, en particulier par l'étude du bilan (comparaison du GMSL observé avec la somme des différentes contributions : composante stérique, fonte des glaces continentales et transferts d'eau depuis les terres émergées). Un autre objectif est d'estimer les composantes du niveau de la mer mal connues, et tout particulièrement le contenu thermique de l'océan profond non mesurable par le système Argo, et la contribution du stock d'eau sur les continents. Ces travaux ont montré que la contribution de l'océan profond en dessous de 2000m est faible sur la période 2005-2013 et contenue dans la barre d'incertitudes des données (erreurs qui proviennent essentiellement, (1) des produits niveau de la mer altimétriques et des lacunes de la couverture géographique des données Argo dans la région Indonésienne pour la tendance et (2) des produits GRACE et Argo pour la variabilité interannuelle). Nos résultats et la méthode utilisée montrent que le niveau de la mer et ses composantes sont encore entachés d'erreurs importantes. Dans la deuxième partie, nous avons analysé l'influence du phénomène ENSO (El Niño et La Niña) sur les variations interannuelles du GMSL. Nous montrons que lors des évènements La Niña comme celui de 2010-2011, le déficit de précipitations sur l'océan (et l'excès sur les continents) conduit à une baisse temporaire de la masse de l'océan global et donc du niveau de la mer. C'est essentiellement la variation de masse de l'océan qui explique la variabilité interannuelle du niveau de la mer lors des évènements ENSO, et le déficit (La Niña) ou excès (El Niño) de masse se trouve confiné dans l'océan Pacifique tropical Nord. Pour finir, nous analysons l'évolution de la température moyenne de l'air et de l'océan en surface sur la période du "hiatus" (2003-2013). Nous montrons que ce hiatus, c'est à dire le ralentissement récent de la hausse de la température moyenne globale de la Terre est un phénomène quasi global, même si le Pacifique tropical Est s'est fortement refroidi. Cette "supposée" pause récente s'explique par la variabilité naturelle interne du climat. La Terre est toujours en état de déséquilibre énergétique dû à l'accumulation de gaz à effet de serre. Nous mettons en évidence le rôle de la variabilité naturelle à court terme sur les changements à plus long terme associés au réchauffement climatique anthropique. / Since the early 1990s sea level is routinely measured using high-precision altimeter satellites. These observe a rise in global mean sea level (GMSL) of 3.4 ± 0.4 mm/yr over the 1993-2016 period (which is twice what has been observed during the 20th century by the tide gauges, with a rise of 1.7 +/- 0.3 mm/yr). The interannual variability in the GMSL can reach several millimeters, especially during ENSO events. The rate of sea level rise is not regionally uniform. During the altimetry era, it was three times faster than the global mean in some areas. During the 21st century, we expect a greater rise of the GMSL than today, up to 1 m in 2100, with strong regional variability. It is therefore important to understand the current evolution of the sea level, since it represents a serious threat to many low coastal areas, often densely populated of the planet. My thesis research deals with the Sea Level CCI (Climate Change Initiative) project of the European Space Agency (ESA) which objective is to provide improved sea level products combining several altimetry missions, including Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, ERS-1/2 and Envisat. The primary objective of my thesis was to validate the CCI sea level products using different approaches, in particular the sea level budget approach. It consists of comparing the observed GMSL with the sum of different contributions : the steric component, melting of continental ice and transfers of water between the land surface and oceans. Another objective was to estimate the poorly known components to sea level rise, in particular the heat content of the deep ocean not measurable by Argo, and the contribution of water storage on the land. My work has shown that the contribution of the deep ocean below 2000m to the rising sea level is small over the 2005-2013 periods and not significant compared to the data uncertainties. The main uncertainties come from: (1) -in terms of trend- the altimetry sea level products and gaps in the geographical coverage of Argo data in the Indonesian region, and (2) -in terms of interannual variability- the GRACE and Argo products. My results and the method used show that the sea level and its components are still affected by important errors. In the second part, I analyzed the influence of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) on the interannual variations of the GMSL. I showed that during La Niña events, like that of 2010-2011, the rainfall deficit over the ocean (and excess over the continents) leads to a temporary decrease in the global ocean mass and therefore in the GMSL. This is essentially the ocean mass variation that explains the interannual variability of the GMSL during ENSO events. Furthermore, the deficit (La Niña) or excess (El Niño) ocean mass is confined in the north tropical Pacific Ocean. Finally, I analyzed the evolution of the average temperature of air and ocean surface over the period of the "hiatus" (2003-2013). I showed that this hiatus, i.e. the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean Earth's temperature is an almost global phenomenon, though cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific has slightly contributed. This recent pause is attributable to natural internal climate variability. The Earth is indeed still in a state of energetic imbalance due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. I highlighted the role of the natural variability that is superimposed to the anthropogenic global warming.