Impulsionado pela mecânica de leilões de energia, o aproveitamento energético de recursos eólicos no Brasil atravessa um momento de expansão em participação na matriz de energia elétrica nacional. Não obstante, o desempenho da geração dos parques eólicos que estão em operação foi monitorado e apresentou, em média, resultados aquém daquilo que fora confiado ao Sistema Interligado Nacional, revelando que as estimativas de geração projetadas e declaradas por alguns dos projetos vencedores dos processos licitatórios podem ter sido supervalorizadas. Tal cenário provocou a exigência de medidas mais conservadoras para participação nos leilões de energia, como a já vigente adoção do P90 no cálculo da Garantia Física e o aumento da duração da campanha de medição anemométrica, a entrar em rigor a partir de 2017. Sendo o vento uma variável estocástica, existem incertezas intrínsecas à Avaliação de Recursos Eólicos que influenciam no processo de estimação da geração por um parque eólico e que devem, desta forma, ser identificadas, quantificadas e reduzidas, na medida do possível. Nesse sentido, este trabalho estuda a influência da duração da campanha de medição anemométrica na Avaliação de Recursos Eólicos com base na aplicação do método MCP ferramenta imprescindível no processo de caracterização do regime eólico no longo prazo com vistas para aprimorar a exatidão das previsões de geração pela fonte eólica. Para tanto, foram utilizadas quatro bases de dados contendo séries temporais de velocidade e direção do vento referentes a uma região de interesse. Inicialmente, nove diferentes métodos MCP foram testados e comparados, sendo que o método Vertical Slice aplicado com auxílio do software Windographer destacou-se dos demais e mostrou-se mais aderente aos dados utilizados conforme as métricas de Erro Absoluto Médio e Raiz Quadrada do Erro Quadrático Médio. Posteriormente, as bases de dados foram configuradas para simular campanhas de medição anemométricas com durações que variavam de 2 a 6 anos, de modo a avaliar o comportamento da incerteza relativa à caracterização histórica de recursos eólicos e analisar em que medida esta incerteza impacta no cálculo da estimativa de geração de eletricidade por um conjunto de aerogeradores hipoteticamente dispostos naquele local de interesse. Foi possível verificar que, para os dados e casos analisados, à medida que se aumentou a duração da campanha de medição anemométrica, a incerteza da caracterização histórica de recursos eólicos sofreu queda significativa; determinando, por conseguinte, redução da incerteza total que permeia a geração eólica. Ademais, a quantidade de energia estimada para o parque eólico hipotético exemplificado também decresceu, permitindo melhora na acurácia da previsão de geração e beneficiando a confiabilidade da fonte eólica no sistema elétrico brasileiro. / Driven by the energy auctions system, the energetic harnessing of wind resource in Brazil is now going through a phase of expansion in participation in the national electric energy mix. Nevertheless, the performance of power generation of in-operation wind farms was monitored and the results proved to be, on average, below what was initially entrusted to the National Grid System, indicating that the energy production estimations projected by some energy auctions winners could have been overestimated. This scenario has caused the requirements for participating in the energy auctions to be more conservative, with measures such as the adoption of the P90 on the calculation of the physical guarantee and the increase of the wind measurement campaigns time span the latter to be enforced as of 2017. The wind is a stochastic resource, hence there are uncertainties intrinsic to the Wind Resource Assessment that influence a wind farms power generation estimation and that need to be properly identified, quantified and reduced, as far as possible. In this respect, the influence of a wind measurement campaigns time span on the Wind Resource Assessment based on MCP methods an important tool in the process of characterizing the long-term wind regime was studied in order to detect the potential of enhancing the accuracy of wind power generation forecasts. For this purpose, four databases containing time series of wind speed and direction belonging to a target site were used. Firstly, nine different MCP methods were tested and compared, of which the Vertical Slice method implemented on the software Windographer outperformed all the others according to the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error metrics. Subsequently, the databases were set to simulate campaigns with time spans varying from 2 to 6 years, in such a way to evaluate the behavior of the uncertainty in the long-term wind speed and to analyze how this uncertainty impacts the calculation of the energy production estimation of an array of wind turbines hypothetically placed on that target site. From the analyzed data and cases, it was verified that, as the wind measurement campaigns time span was increased, the uncertainty in the long-term wind speed was significantly diminished, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty that pervades the wind power harnessing. Furthermore, the energy production estimation of the exemplified hypothetical wind farm also decreased, allowing an improvement on the accuracy of the energy generation prediction and benefiting the reliability of wind power in the Brazilian electric system.

Impulsionado pela mecânica de leilões de energia, o aproveitamento energético de recursos eólicos no Brasil atravessa um momento de expansão em participação na matriz de energia elétrica nacional. Não obstante, o desempenho da geração dos parques eólicos que estão em operação foi monitorado e apresentou, em média, resultados aquém daquilo que fora confiado ao Sistema Interligado Nacional, revelando que as estimativas de geração projetadas e declaradas por alguns dos projetos vencedores dos processos licitatórios podem ter sido supervalorizadas. Tal cenário provocou a exigência de medidas mais conservadoras para participação nos leilões de energia, como a já vigente adoção do P90 no cálculo da Garantia Física e o aumento da duração da campanha de medição anemométrica, a entrar em rigor a partir de 2017. Sendo o vento uma variável estocástica, existem incertezas intrínsecas à Avaliação de Recursos Eólicos que influenciam no processo de estimação da geração por um parque eólico e que devem, desta forma, ser identificadas, quantificadas e reduzidas, na medida do possível. Nesse sentido, este trabalho estuda a influência da duração da campanha de medição anemométrica na Avaliação de Recursos Eólicos com base na aplicação do método MCP ferramenta imprescindível no processo de caracterização do regime eólico no longo prazo com vistas para aprimorar a exatidão das previsões de geração pela fonte eólica. Para tanto, foram utilizadas quatro bases de dados contendo séries temporais de velocidade e direção do vento referentes a uma região de interesse. Inicialmente, nove diferentes métodos MCP foram testados e comparados, sendo que o método Vertical Slice aplicado com auxílio do software Windographer destacou-se dos demais e mostrou-se mais aderente aos dados utilizados conforme as métricas de Erro Absoluto Médio e Raiz Quadrada do Erro Quadrático Médio. Posteriormente, as bases de dados foram configuradas para simular campanhas de medição anemométricas com durações que variavam de 2 a 6 anos, de modo a avaliar o comportamento da incerteza relativa à caracterização histórica de recursos eólicos e analisar em que medida esta incerteza impacta no cálculo da estimativa de geração de eletricidade por um conjunto de aerogeradores hipoteticamente dispostos naquele local de interesse. Foi possível verificar que, para os dados e casos analisados, à medida que se aumentou a duração da campanha de medição anemométrica, a incerteza da caracterização histórica de recursos eólicos sofreu queda significativa; determinando, por conseguinte, redução da incerteza total que permeia a geração eólica. Ademais, a quantidade de energia estimada para o parque eólico hipotético exemplificado também decresceu, permitindo melhora na acurácia da previsão de geração e beneficiando a confiabilidade da fonte eólica no sistema elétrico brasileiro. / Driven by the energy auctions system, the energetic harnessing of wind resource in Brazil is now going through a phase of expansion in participation in the national electric energy mix. Nevertheless, the performance of power generation of in-operation wind farms was monitored and the results proved to be, on average, below what was initially entrusted to the National Grid System, indicating that the energy production estimations projected by some energy auctions winners could have been overestimated. This scenario has caused the requirements for participating in the energy auctions to be more conservative, with measures such as the adoption of the P90 on the calculation of the physical guarantee and the increase of the wind measurement campaigns time span the latter to be enforced as of 2017. The wind is a stochastic resource, hence there are uncertainties intrinsic to the Wind Resource Assessment that influence a wind farms power generation estimation and that need to be properly identified, quantified and reduced, as far as possible. In this respect, the influence of a wind measurement campaigns time span on the Wind Resource Assessment based on MCP methods an important tool in the process of characterizing the long-term wind regime was studied in order to detect the potential of enhancing the accuracy of wind power generation forecasts. For this purpose, four databases containing time series of wind speed and direction belonging to a target site were used. Firstly, nine different MCP methods were tested and compared, of which the Vertical Slice method implemented on the software Windographer outperformed all the others according to the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error metrics. Subsequently, the databases were set to simulate campaigns with time spans varying from 2 to 6 years, in such a way to evaluate the behavior of the uncertainty in the long-term wind speed and to analyze how this uncertainty impacts the calculation of the energy production estimation of an array of wind turbines hypothetically placed on that target site. From the analyzed data and cases, it was verified that, as the wind measurement campaigns time span was increased, the uncertainty in the long-term wind speed was significantly diminished, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty that pervades the wind power harnessing. Furthermore, the energy production estimation of the exemplified hypothetical wind farm also decreased, allowing an improvement on the accuracy of the energy generation prediction and benefiting the reliability of wind power in the Brazilian electric system.

Eine angemessene Qualität der Elektroenergie ist Grundvoraussetzung für den störungsfreien Betrieb aller angeschlossenen Geräte und Anlagen und spielt in den Verteilungsnetzen moderner Industriegesellschaften wie Deutschland eine zentrale Rolle. Die Elektroenergiequalität (EEQ) wird in Strom- und Spannungsqualität unterteilt. Während die Stromqualität maßgeblich im Verantwortungsbereich der Hersteller von Geräten und Anlagen liegt, sind für die Sicherung einer angemessenen Spannungsqualität im Wesentlichen die Netzbetreiber verantwortlich. Durch die technische Weiterentwicklung bspw. neuer Gerätetechnologien und die zunehmende Integration dezentraler Erzeugungsanlagen wie Photovoltaikanlagen ist zu erwarten, dass die EEQ auch künftig weiter an Bedeutung gewinnt. Die EEQ im Niederspannungsverteilungsnetz ist abhängig von Ort und Zeit und wird durch verschiedene Qualitätskenngrößen beschrieben. Die örtliche und zeitliche Abhängigkeit resultieren aus einer Vielzahl verschiedener Einflussfaktoren, welche sich entweder der elektrischen oder der nicht-elektrischen Umgebung des betrachteten Verteilungsnetzes zuordnen lassen. Die elektrische Umgebung wird durch die Art und Anzahl angeschlossener Verbraucher bzw. Erzeuger (Abnehmer- bzw. Erzeugerstruktur) sowie Struktur und technische Parameter des Verteilungsnetzes (Netzstruktur) bestimmt. Die nicht-elektrische Umgebung umfasst u.a. Einflüsse der klimatischen Umgebung wie bspw. Temperatur oder Globalstrahlung. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die systematische Identifikation korrelativer Zusammenhänge zwischen den genannten Umgebungseinflüssen und der EEQ sowie deren Quantifizierung auf Basis geeigneter Indizes und Kenngrößen. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit helfen grundlegende Prinzipien der Ausprägung der Elektroenergiequalität im öffentlichen Verteilungsnetz besser zu verstehen sowie die Verteilungsnetze im Hinblick auf die Elektroenergiequalität zu charakterisieren und zu klassifizieren. Analog zu den Standard-Lastprofilen erfolgt die Definition von Standard-Qualitätsprofilen. / Power quality levels in public low voltage grids are influenced by many factors which can either be assigned to the electrical environment (connected consumers, connected genera-tion, network characteristics) or to the non-electrical environment (e.g. climatic conditions) at the measurement site. Type and amount of connected consumers (consumer topology) are expected to have a very high impact on power quality (PQ) levels. The generation topology is characterized by number and kind of equipment and generating installations like photovoltaic systems which are connected to the LV grid. The electrical parameters of the grid define the network topology. The parameters which are most suitable to describe each of the three topologies and the climatic environment will be identified. Voltage and current quality in public low voltage (LV) grids vary depending on location and time. They are quantified by a set of different parameters which either belong to events (e.g. dips) or to variations (e.g. harmonics). This thesis exclusively addresses continuous parameters describing variations. Continuous phenomena like harmonics are closely linked to an one-day-cycle which implies a more or less periodic behavior of the continuous power quality parameters. Consumer topologies such as office buildings or residential areas differ in their use of equipment. Time series analysis is used to distinguish between different consumer topologies and to identify characteristic weeks. The clustering of one-day time series is applied to identify characteristic days within the weeks of certain topologies. Based on the results, emission profiles for certain current quality parameters of different consumer topologies will be defined. Due to the characteristic harmonic current emission of certain consumer topologies which represents the typical user behaviour a classification system is developed. It is used to automatically classify the emission profiles of harmonic currents for unknown measurements and to estimate a likely consumer topology. A classification measure is introduced in order to identify unusual or false classified emission profiles. The usage behaviour of equipment by customers usually varies over the year. Subsequently, the levels of PQ parameters like harmonics may show seasonal variations which are identified by using newly defined parameters. The introduction of new device technologies on a large scale like the transition from incandescent to LED lamps might result in long-term changes to the levels of PQ parameters (e.g. harmonics). The analysis of the long-term behavior (trend) will be applied in order to quantify global trends (looking on the measurement duration as a whole) and local trends (looking on individual segments of the whole time series).

Eine angemessene Qualität der Elektroenergie ist Grundvoraussetzung für den störungsfreien Betrieb aller angeschlossenen Geräte und Anlagen und spielt in den Verteilungsnetzen moderner Industriegesellschaften wie Deutschland eine zentrale Rolle. Die Elektroenergiequalität (EEQ) wird in Strom- und Spannungsqualität unterteilt. Während die Stromqualität maßgeblich im Verantwortungsbereich der Hersteller von Geräten und Anlagen liegt, sind für die Sicherung einer angemessenen Spannungsqualität im Wesentlichen die Netzbetreiber verantwortlich. Durch die technische Weiterentwicklung bspw. neuer Gerätetechnologien und die zunehmende Integration dezentraler Erzeugungsanlagen wie Photovoltaikanlagen ist zu erwarten, dass die EEQ auch künftig weiter an Bedeutung gewinnt. Die EEQ im Niederspannungsverteilungsnetz ist abhängig von Ort und Zeit und wird durch verschiedene Qualitätskenngrößen beschrieben. Die örtliche und zeitliche Abhängigkeit resultieren aus einer Vielzahl verschiedener Einflussfaktoren, welche sich entweder der elektrischen oder der nicht-elektrischen Umgebung des betrachteten Verteilungsnetzes zuordnen lassen. Die elektrische Umgebung wird durch die Art und Anzahl angeschlossener Verbraucher bzw. Erzeuger (Abnehmer- bzw. Erzeugerstruktur) sowie Struktur und technische Parameter des Verteilungsnetzes (Netzstruktur) bestimmt. Die nicht-elektrische Umgebung umfasst u.a. Einflüsse der klimatischen Umgebung wie bspw. Temperatur oder Globalstrahlung. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die systematische Identifikation korrelativer Zusammenhänge zwischen den genannten Umgebungseinflüssen und der EEQ sowie deren Quantifizierung auf Basis geeigneter Indizes und Kenngrößen. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit helfen grundlegende Prinzipien der Ausprägung der Elektroenergiequalität im öffentlichen Verteilungsnetz besser zu verstehen sowie die Verteilungsnetze im Hinblick auf die Elektroenergiequalität zu charakterisieren und zu klassifizieren. Analog zu den Standard-Lastprofilen erfolgt die Definition von Standard-Qualitätsprofilen. / Power quality levels in public low voltage grids are influenced by many factors which can either be assigned to the electrical environment (connected consumers, connected genera-tion, network characteristics) or to the non-electrical environment (e.g. climatic conditions) at the measurement site. Type and amount of connected consumers (consumer topology) are expected to have a very high impact on power quality (PQ) levels. The generation topology is characterized by number and kind of equipment and generating installations like photovoltaic systems which are connected to the LV grid. The electrical parameters of the grid define the network topology. The parameters which are most suitable to describe each of the three topologies and the climatic environment will be identified. Voltage and current quality in public low voltage (LV) grids vary depending on location and time. They are quantified by a set of different parameters which either belong to events (e.g. dips) or to variations (e.g. harmonics). This thesis exclusively addresses continuous parameters describing variations. Continuous phenomena like harmonics are closely linked to an one-day-cycle which implies a more or less periodic behavior of the continuous power quality parameters. Consumer topologies such as office buildings or residential areas differ in their use of equipment. Time series analysis is used to distinguish between different consumer topologies and to identify characteristic weeks. The clustering of one-day time series is applied to identify characteristic days within the weeks of certain topologies. Based on the results, emission profiles for certain current quality parameters of different consumer topologies will be defined. Due to the characteristic harmonic current emission of certain consumer topologies which represents the typical user behaviour a classification system is developed. It is used to automatically classify the emission profiles of harmonic currents for unknown measurements and to estimate a likely consumer topology. A classification measure is introduced in order to identify unusual or false classified emission profiles. The usage behaviour of equipment by customers usually varies over the year. Subsequently, the levels of PQ parameters like harmonics may show seasonal variations which are identified by using newly defined parameters. The introduction of new device technologies on a large scale like the transition from incandescent to LED lamps might result in long-term changes to the levels of PQ parameters (e.g. harmonics). The analysis of the long-term behavior (trend) will be applied in order to quantify global trends (looking on the measurement duration as a whole) and local trends (looking on individual segments of the whole time series).