In this thesis, we address two types of modeling of random events. The first one, contained in Chapters 2 and 3, is related to the modeling of dependent stopping times. In Chapter 2, we use a modified Cox construction, along with a modification of the bivariate exponential introduced by Marshall & Olkin (1967), to create a family of stopping times, which are not necessarily conditionally independent, allowing for a positive probability for them to be equal. We also present a series of results exploring the special properties of this construction, along with some generalizations and possible applications. In Chapter 3, we present a detailed application of our model to Credit Risk theory. We propose a new measure of systemic risk that is consistent with the economic theories relating to the causes of financial market failures and can be estimated using existing hazard rate methodologies, and hence, it is simple to estimate and interpret. We do this by characterizing the probability of a market failure which is defined as the default of two or more globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in a small interval of time. We derive various theorems related to market failure probabilities, such as the probability of a catastrophic market failure, the impact of increasing the number of G-SIBs in an economy, and the impact of changing the initial conditions of the economy's state variables. The second type of random events we focus on is the failure of a group in the context of microlending, which is a loan made by a bank to a small group of people without credit histories. Since the creation of this mechanism by Muhammed Yunus, it has received a fair amount of academic attention. However, one of the issues not yet addressed in full detail is the issue of the size of the group. In Chapter 4, we propose a model with interacting forces to find the optimal group size. We define "optimal" as that group size that minimizes the probability of default of the group. Ultimately, we show that the original choice of Muhammad Yunus, of a group size of five people, is, under the right, and, we believe, reasonable hypotheses, either close to optimal, or even at times exactly optimal, i.e., the optimal group size is indeed five people.

It is widely accepted as fact that the creation of a stable financial system is the catalyst which facilitates economic development and prosperity. However, developing countries which embark on a path of change often forget the cardinal rule: addressing the needs of those who suffer from poverty, inequality, and political strife. In other words, change starts from the ground up; not the other way around. First among the challenges facing these countries, is the need to change the lending rules followed by traditional financial institutions- banks and other private lenders- who are unwilling to provide their services to individuals with little income and few if any assets that can be used as collateral. Second, global organizations like the United Nations, World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund have failed to provide aid in a way that forces the creation of positive and sustainable change for fragile and destabilized societies. For this reason, many developing countries which receive financial aid are no better off than they were before the interventions occurred, and in some cases worse. Finally, other aid programs and even well-intentioned government efforts to reduce poverty fail simply because they are misguided. Too much attention and financial resources are devoted to grand schemes of long-term duration and not enough is given to impacting human lives in the present. In 1973, visionary economist Muhammud Yunus witnessed his beloved country of Bangladesh sinking into the deepest realms of poverty; much of its population in despair and left without hope of extricating itself from a bleak existence. The problem was compounded by the fact that its government was preoccupied with matters of State iii rather than those of its people; its financial institutions were oblivious to the pain and hunger which surrounded them, and international donors were simply giving away money without any form of control or direct involvement. Out of this scenario, Yunus started with an idea that would alter not only his life, but the lives of people in Bangladesh and the world over: micro-finance. To this day, nearly every text written on the subject calls micro-finance a weapon in the fight against global poverty, but only a mere few recognize just how much of the gains made in this ―fight‖ are attributable to the direct involvement of women in micro-financing. This thesis posits that while Muhammud Yunus created an idea for the benefit of ―the global poor‖, it actually became a medium for the empowerment of women around the world. In fact, much of the praise awarded to micro-finance as success omit recognition of what should be obvious: the driving force behind the success of microlending is (poor) women. This statement does not seek to diminish the merits of an idea which has put a significant mark on the global economy, or to ignore the accomplishments of millions of men who through hard work have overcome poverty. However, what began as a genderless effort to help the poor of Bangladesh soon changed to one that overwhelmingly favored women. To this day, lending primarily to women has become the modus operandi of the microfinance industry for one reason above all: because women have proven they are a good business risk. The first part of this thesis will analyze the birth and development of the microfinancing system with special emphasis on its creator, Muhammed Yunus and the financial institution he founded for the purpose of implementing his idea, Grameen Bank. The second part will review the growth of micro-financing across the world with iv focus on Kiva, a web-based organization which represents the melding of micro-finance with 21st century technology. Finally, the thesis will look at Pro Mujer, a micro-financing organization which has successfully operated in Latin America for the last 20 years and developed a niche that expands the horizons of empowerment.

This study used secondary data to analyze the Saving for Change (SfC) program of Oxfam America in Mali. SfC uses a model of microfinance that is based on education and savings-led approach and self-help methodology. The program teaches the poorest women how to form and manage a group to handle savings and credit related needs. The group learns to systematically collect savings from its members; lend the money to its members with interest and keep a record of all transactions. SfC has created an oral recordkeeping system which is helpful for groups that have mostly or all illiterate women. The SfC women also learn about other social components such as malaria through their participation in the program. This study, however, focused only on the financial activities of the women. The secondary data analyzed in this study were collected by Oxfam America in two rounds of surveys that used mixed methods instruments. Both surveys were conducted in October and November, one in 2005 and the other in 2006. Most of the data collected from the surveys were quantitative. They were collected for Oxfam America's own purposes and only some of them were used for this study. The study used three aspects of outreach--depth, scope and worth to the user--as the framework to explore the extent to which SfC had reached the poorest women. Three overarching questions were constructed, one to explore each of these aspects of outreach. They were: Were the women served by SfC poorer than other women who were not served? Did the SfC women utilize the program benefits? Did the utilization of the program benefits vary based on the women's economic levels? Each overarching question also had a set of main and specific questions. Some key economic indicators such as the women's literacy and schooling at the individual level and the ratio of school age children in school, food security, assets and the ratio of income contributors at the household level, as well as select program benefits such as savings and loans were used for determining the main and specific questions. Various statistical tests including one-way ANOVA, paired samples t-tests and bivariate correlations were performed to answer those questions. Most of the results of the statistical tests did not provide a clear answer whether or not SfC reached the poorest of the poor. Out of the four indicators, three showed that the women reached by SfC were as poor as the women in the control group. The SfC women were statistically significantly better off, as measured by household assets, compared to the other women in the area. The results of the paired samples t-tests showed that the SfC women utilized the benefits offered by the program, and their utilization was higher in 2006 than in 2005. Except for a few instances, the women's utilization of the program benefits did not appear to have been influenced by their economic levels. None of their saving activities were significantly affected by their household economic levels. Their willingness to take loans also did not appear to be influenced by the difference in their household economic levels in a meaningful way. Although mixed, these findings adequately rejected the notion that Oxfam America had failed to reach the poorest of the poor. However, the results did not show that the women reached by SfC were the poorest. Future studies and collection of additional data may provide more conclusive findings about the level of poverty of the women reached by the program and the extent to which the very poorest benefitted equally from the services. Whether or not the results were statistically significant and all women were the poorest, the experiences gained by the women and the groups from their participation in SfC spoke directly to the core purpose of the program and to the economic benefits for the clients by any international standard. When their context was taken into consideration, poor women of one of the world's poorest countries in the villages where there are very few or no opportunities became economically active in the SfC program. The level of engagement of the women was an important step forward toward reducing poverty. Regardless of their economic levels, those poor women saved a remarkable amount of money; borrowed money from the group; repaid loans with interest; and, most importantly, managed a financial system as a group to serve their financial needs.

Выпускная квалификационная работа (магистерская диссертация) посвящена исследованию современных тенденций рынка потребительского кредитования в России. Предметом исследования выступает совокупность экономических факторов, влияющих на рынок потребительского кредитования, и качественно-количественные характеристики портфеля потребительских кредитов банка. Цель исследования – анализ влияния экономических факторов, влияющих на структуру и параметры рынка потребительского кредитования в России, а также разработка мероприятий по улучшению качества портфеля потребительского кредитования банка ПАО КБ «УБРиР» под влиянием изменяющейся экономической ситуации. / Final qualifying work (master's thesis) is devoted to the study of modern trends in the consumer lending market in Russia. The subject of the study is a set of economic factors affecting the consumer lending market, and qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the consumer loan portfolio of the Bank. The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of economic factors affecting the structure and parameters of the consumer lending market in Russia, as well as the development of measures to improve the quality of the consumer lending portfolio of the Bank of PJSC CB "UBRiR" under the influence of the changing economic situation.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.