Zero-inflated data abound in ecological studies as well as in other scientific and quantitative fields. Nonparametric regression with zero-inflated response may be studied via the zero-inflated generalized additive model (ZIGAM). ZIGAM assumes that the conditional distribution of the response variable belongs to the zero-inflated 1-parameter exponential family which is a probabilistic mixture of the zero atom and the 1-parameter exponential family, where the zero atom accounts for an excess of zeroes in the data. We propose the constrained zero-inflated generalized additive model (COZIGAM) for analyzing zero-inflated data, with the further assumption that the probability of non-zero-inflation is some monotone function of the (non-zero-inflated) exponential family distribution mean. When the latter assumption obtains, the new approach provides a unified framework for modeling zero-inflated data, which is more parsimonious and efficient than the unconstrained ZIGAM. We develop an iterative algorithm for model estimation based on the penalized likelihood approach, and derive formulas for constructing confidence intervals of the maximum penalized likelihood estimator. Some asymptotic properties including the consistency of the regression function estimator and the limiting distribution of the parametric estimator are derived. We also propose a Bayesian model selection criterion for choosing between the unconstrained and the constrained ZIGAMs. We consider several useful extensions of the COZIGAM, including imposing additive-component-specific proportional and partial constraints, and incorporating threshold effects to account for regime shift phenomena. The new methods are illustrated with both simulated data and real applications. An R package COZIGAM has been developed for model fitting and model selection with zero-inflated data.

Two new spatio-temporal hidden Markov models (HMM) are introduced in this thesis, with the purpose of capturing the persistent, spatially non-homogeneous nature of climate influence on annual rainfall series observed in Australia. The models extend the two-state HMM applied by Thyer (2001) by relaxing the assumption that all sites are under the same climate control. The Switch HMM (SHMM) allows at-site anomalous states, whilst still maintaining a regional control. The Regional HMM (RHMM), on the other hand, allows sites to be partitioned into different Markovian state regions. The analyses were conducted using a Bayesian framework to explicitly account for parameter uncertainty and select between competing hypotheses. Bayesian model averaging was used for comparison of the HMM and its generalisations. The HMM, SHMM and RHMM were applied to four groupings of four sites located on the Eastern coast of Australia, an area that has previously shown evidence of interannual persistence. In the majority of case studies, the RHMM variants showed greatest posterior weight, indicating that the data favoured the multiple region RHMM over the single region HMM or the SHMM variants. In no cases does the HMM produce the maximum marginal likelihood when compared to the SHMM and RHMM. The HMM state series and preferred model variants were sensitive to the parameterisation of the small-scale site-to-site correlation structure. Several parameterisations of the small-scale Gaussian correlation were trialled, namely Fitted Correlation, Exponential Decay Correlation, Empirical and Zero Correlation. Significantly, it was shown that annual rainfall data outliers can have a large effect on inference for a model that uses Gaussian distributions. The practical value of this modelling is demonstrated by the conditioning of the event based point rainfall model DRIP on the hidden state series of the HMM variants. Short timescale models typically underestimate annual variability because there is no explicit structure to incorporate long-term persistence. The two-state conditioned DRIP model was shown to reproduce the annual variability observed to a greater degree than the single state DRIP. / PhD Doctorate

時間序列在過去二十年當中，受到熱列地討論，而絕大多數的文獻都是研 究線性時間序列模式。但在現實生活中，很多時間序列並不符合線性的假 設，因此近十年來很多學者致力研究非線性時間序列模式。其中有一種雙 線性模式，因其性質與線性模式類似，故引起了廣泛注意。在本篇文章中 我們是採用Subba Rao 和Gabr(1984)提出的迭代等式以及高斯－賽德迭代 法估計參數，再配合 Subba Rao(1981)提出的巢狀搜尋程序，來選取雙線 性模式的階數。將其選模結果與AIC、BIC以及修正後的 PKK 選模法比較 。

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the most widely used model in asset pricing. This model evaluates the asset return in relation to the market return and the sensitivity of the security to the market. However, the evidence supporting the CAPM is mixed. Alternatives to the CAPM in determining the expected rate of return on portfolios and stocks was introduced through the Arbitrage Pricing Theory and through the Intertemporal CAPM. The introduction of these more general models raised the following important question: how should the risk factors in a multifactor pricing model be specified? Since the multifactor model theory is not very explicit regarding the number or nature of the factors the selection of factors has, to a large extent, become an empirical issue. In the first and the second chapters, we conduct an exhaustive evaluation of multifactor asset pricing models based on observable factors. In the first chapter we find strong evidence that a multifactor pricing model should include the market excess return, the size- , and the value premium. In the second chapter we relax the assumption of normal distributed returns. Even if this new setup does not alter the selected factors, we found strong evidence of deviation from normality which makes our approach more appropriate. In contrast to the first two chapters, the third chapter takes the approach of using latent factors. Using data from the US market, 4 to 6 pervasive factor were generally found. Furthermore, the data speaks in favor of an approximate factor structure with time series dependence across assets. In the final chapter, we examine if a momentum strategy, is superior to a benchmark model once the effects of data-snooping have been accounted for. Data snooping occurs when a given set of data is used more than once for inference or model selection. The result shows that data-snooping bias can be very substantial. In this study, neglecting the problem would lead to very different conclusions. For the US data there is strong evidence of a momentum effect and we reject the hypothesis of weak market efficiency. For the Swedish data the results indicates that momentum strategies based on individual stocks generate positive and significant profits. Interestingly, a very weak or none at all, momentum effect can be found when stocks are sorted by size, book-to-market and industry. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005. Johan Parmler hette tidigare Johan Ericsson.

Estimating functions have been widely used for parameter estimation in various statistical problems. Regular estimating functions produce parameter estimators which have desirable properties, such as consistency and asymptotic normality. In quasi-likelihood inference, an important example of estimating functions, correct specification of the first two moments of the underlying distribution leads to the information unbiasedness, which states that two forms of the information matrix: the negative sensitivity matrix (negative expectation of the first order derivative of an estimating function) and the variability matrix (variance of an estimating function) are equal, or in other words, the analogue of the Fisher information is equivalent to the Godambe information. Consequently, the information unbiasedness indicates that the model-based covariance matrix estimator and sandwich covariance matrix estimator are equivalent. By comparing the model-based and sandwich variance estimators, we propose information ratio (IR) statistics for testing model misspecification of variance/covariance structure under correctly specified mean structure, in the context of linear regression models, generalized linear regression models and generalized estimating equations. Asymptotic properties of the IR statistics are discussed. In addition, through intensive simulation studies, we show that the IR statistics are powerful in various applications: test for heteroscedasticity in linear regression models, test for overdispersion in count data, and test for misspecified variance function and/or misspecified working correlation structure. Moreover, the IR statistics appear more powerful than the classical information matrix test proposed by White (1982). In the literature, model selection criteria have been intensively discussed, but almost all of them target choosing the optimal mean structure. In this thesis, two model selection procedures are proposed for selecting the optimal variance/covariance structure among a collection of candidate structures. One is based on a sequence of the IR tests for all the competing variance/covariance structures. The other is based on an ``information discrepancy criterion" (IDC), which provides a measurement of discrepancy between the negative sensitivity matrix and the variability matrix. In fact, this IDC characterizes the relative efficiency loss when using a certain candidate variance/covariance structure, compared with the true but unknown structure. Through simulation studies and analyses of two data sets, it is shown that the two proposed model selection methods both have a high rate of detecting the true/optimal variance/covariance structure. In particular, since the IDC magnifies the difference among the competing structures, it is highly sensitive to detect the most appropriate variance/covariance structure.

In the present paper we study switching state space models from a Bayesian point of view. For estimation, the model is reformulated as a hierarchical model. We discuss various MCMC methods for Bayesian estimation, among them unconstrained Gibbs sampling, constrained sampling and permutation sampling. We address in detail the problem of unidentifiability, and discuss potential information available from an unidentified model. Furthermore the paper discusses issues in model selection such as selecting the number of states or testing for the presence of Markov switching heterogeneity. The model likelihoods of all possible hypotheses are estimated by using the method of bridge sampling. We conclude the paper with applications to simulated data as well as to modelling the U.S./U.K. real exchange rate. (author's abstract) / Series: Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statistik

Estimating functions have been widely used for parameter estimation in various statistical problems. Regular estimating functions produce parameter estimators which have desirable properties, such as consistency and asymptotic normality. In quasi-likelihood inference, an important example of estimating functions, correct specification of the first two moments of the underlying distribution leads to the information unbiasedness, which states that two forms of the information matrix: the negative sensitivity matrix (negative expectation of the first order derivative of an estimating function) and the variability matrix (variance of an estimating function) are equal, or in other words, the analogue of the Fisher information is equivalent to the Godambe information. Consequently, the information unbiasedness indicates that the model-based covariance matrix estimator and sandwich covariance matrix estimator are equivalent. By comparing the model-based and sandwich variance estimators, we propose information ratio (IR) statistics for testing model misspecification of variance/covariance structure under correctly specified mean structure, in the context of linear regression models, generalized linear regression models and generalized estimating equations. Asymptotic properties of the IR statistics are discussed. In addition, through intensive simulation studies, we show that the IR statistics are powerful in various applications: test for heteroscedasticity in linear regression models, test for overdispersion in count data, and test for misspecified variance function and/or misspecified working correlation structure. Moreover, the IR statistics appear more powerful than the classical information matrix test proposed by White (1982). In the literature, model selection criteria have been intensively discussed, but almost all of them target choosing the optimal mean structure. In this thesis, two model selection procedures are proposed for selecting the optimal variance/covariance structure among a collection of candidate structures. One is based on a sequence of the IR tests for all the competing variance/covariance structures. The other is based on an ``information discrepancy criterion" (IDC), which provides a measurement of discrepancy between the negative sensitivity matrix and the variability matrix. In fact, this IDC characterizes the relative efficiency loss when using a certain candidate variance/covariance structure, compared with the true but unknown structure. Through simulation studies and analyses of two data sets, it is shown that the two proposed model selection methods both have a high rate of detecting the true/optimal variance/covariance structure. In particular, since the IDC magnifies the difference among the competing structures, it is highly sensitive to detect the most appropriate variance/covariance structure.

<p>This thesis is about Bayesian approaches for handling multiplicity. It considers three main kinds of multiple-testing scenarios: tests of exchangeable experimental units, tests for variable inclusion in linear regresson models, and tests for conditional independence in jointly normal vectors. Multiplicity adjustment in these three areas will be seen to have many common structural features. Though the modeling approach throughout is Bayesian, frequentist reasoning regarding error rates will often be employed.</p><p>Chapter 1 frames the issues in the context of historical debates about Bayesian multiplicity adjustment. Chapter 2 confronts the problem of large-scale screening of functional data, where control over Type-I error rates is a crucial issue. Chapter 3 develops new theory for comparing Bayes and empirical-Bayes approaches for multiplicity correction in regression variable selection. Chapters 4 and 5 describe new theoretical and computational tools for Gaussian graphical-model selection, where multiplicity arises in performing many simultaneous tests of pairwise conditional independence. Chapter 6 introduces a new approach to sparse-signal modeling based upon local shrinkage rules. Here the focus is not on multiplicity per se, but rather on using ideas from Bayesian multiple-testing models to motivate a new class of multivariate scale-mixture priors. Finally, Chapter 7 describes some directions for future study, many of which are the subjects of my current research agenda.</p> / Dissertation

An important element of successful engineering design is the effective management of resources to support design decisions. Design decisions can be thought of as having two phasesa formulation phase and a solution phase. As part of the formulation phase, engineers must decide how much information to collect and which models to use to support the design decision. Since more information and more accurate models come at a greater cost, a cost-benefit trade-off must be made. Previous work has considered such trade-offs in decision problems when all aspects of the decision problem can be represented using precise probabilities, an assumption that is not justified when information is sparse. In this thesis, we use imprecise probabilities to manage the information cost-benefit trade-off for two decision problems in which the quality of the information is imprecise: 1) The decision of when to stop collecting statistical data about a quantity that is characterized by a probability distribution with unknown parameters; and 2) The selection of the most preferred model to help guide a particular design decision when the model accuracy is characterized as an interval. For each case, a separate novel approach is developed in which the principles of information economics are incorporated into the information management decision. The problem of statistical data collection is explored with a pressure vessel design. This design problem requires the characterization of the probability distribution that describes a novel material's strength. The model selection approach is explored with the design of an I-beam structure. The designer must decide how accurate of a model to use to predict the maximum deflection in the span of the structure. For both problems, it is concluded that the information economic approach developed in this thesis can assist engineers in their information management decisions.

The recent development of the service-oriented architecture (SOA) has provided an opportunity to apply this new technology to support model management. This is particularly critical when more and more decision models are delivered as web services. A web-services-based approach to model management is useful in providing effective decision support. When a decision model is implemented as a web service, it is called a model-based web service. In model management, selecting a proper model-based web service is an important issue. Most current research on selecting such web service relies on matching inputs and outputs of the model, which is oversimplified. The incorporation of more semantic knowledge may be necessary to make the selection of model-based web services more effective. In this research, we propose a new mechanism that represents the semantics associated with a problem and then use the similarity of semantic information between a new problem description and existing web services to find the most suitable web services for solving the new problem. The paper defines the concept of entity similarity, attribute similarity, and functional similarity for problem matching. The web service that has the highest similarity is chosen as a base for constructing the new web services. The identified mapping is converted into BPEL4WS codes for utilizing the web services. To verify the feasibility of the proposed method, a prototype system has been implemented in JAVA.