Thesis (MEd (Curriculum Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Mathematical modelling is becoming a popular teaching and learning approach in mathematics education. There is however a need within the modelling domain to identify exactly what modelling competencies are and how these competencies develop. This study examines how mathematical modelling competencies develop in Grade 7 students working in groups. Modelling is placed in the field of mathematics teaching and learning as a significant means of learning mathematics. Modelling competencies are identified and characterised from existing literature and explored through empirical generation and collection of data. The study is qualitative in nature and uses a mixed approach of design research and some aspects of grounded theory. Students’ progress through a modelling program is documented while the modelling competencies of students stereotyped as weak and strong are also investigated. The findings firmly support earlier research that competencies do develop in students who are exposed to modelling. A comprehensive picture of the modelling situation is presented since this study merges competencies from other studies into a detailed analysis of the modelling situation - it presents an authentic modelling situation of students working in groups and furthers the discussion on modelling competencies. The analysis of the data suggests that the development of modelling competencies is complex and interrelated but that competencies do develop progressively in groups involved in modelling tasks. Recommendations for additional studies include studies of a longer duration and a full investigation into the link between modelling and language ability. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Wiskundige modellering is besig om ‘n populêre onderrig- en studiebenadering in wiskundeonderwys te word. Daar is egter ‘n behoefte om die modelleringsbevoegdhede te identifiseer in hierdie veld en om te weet hoe hierdie bevoegdhede ontwikkel. Hierdie studie ondersoek watter bevoegdhede in wiskundige modellering by Gr.7 studente wat in groepe saamwerk ontwikkel. Modellering is in die studieveld van wiskundeonderrig en -leer geplaas as 'n betekenisvolle leerwyse in wiskunde. Modelleringsbevoegdhede word vanuit bestaande literatuur en navorsing geïdentifiseer en beskryf deur empiriese generering en versameling van data. Die studie is kwalitatief van aard en gebruik ‘n gemengde benadering van ontwikkelingsondersoek en sekere aspekte van begronde teorie. Studente se vordering in die modelleringsprogram is gedokumenteer terwyl die modelleringsbevoegdhede van gestereotipeerde swak en sterk studente ook ondersoek is. Die resultate bevestig vroeëre navorsing dat bevoegdhede ontwikkel word deur studente wat blootgestel is aan modellering. ‘n Omvattende beeld van die modelleringsituasie is in hierdie studie aangebied waardeur modelleringsbevoegdhede, soos geïdentifiseer in ander studies, tot ‘n gedetailleerde analise van die modelleringsituasie saamgevoeg word. Dit verteenwoordig dus ‘n outentieke modelleringsituasie van studente wat in groepe saamwerk en bevorder so die gesprek oor modelleringsbevoegdhede. Die analise van die data suggereer dat die ontwikkeling van modelleringsbevoegdhede kompleks en geïntegreerd is, en dat bevoegdhede progressief ontwikkel in groepe wat betrokke is by modelleringstake. Aanbevelings vir addissionele studies sluit langer ondersoektydperke in en 'n dieper ondersoek na die verband tussen modellering en taalvaardigheid.

Abstract not available

Oregon State University has conducted research in collaboration with TerraPower, LLC, to perform a top-down scaling analysis of an integrated test facility. The goal of this facility is to simulate transient and quasi-steady phenomena at a reduced scale, including steady-state operation, pump coastdown, natural circulation, reactor head heat transfer, and coolant stratification. To support this goal, this thesis presents the methodology and analysis by which approximate facility dimensions were generated. This analysis includes implementation of the hierarchical two-tiered scaling methodology, as outlined by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and optimization through the general reduced gradient methodology. / Graduation date: 2013

This thesis investigates the problem of model identification in a Vector Autoregressive framework. The study reviews the existing research, conducts an extensive simulation based analysis of thirteen information theoretic criterion (IC), one of which is a novel derivation. The simulation exercise considers the evaluation of seven alternative error restricted vector autoregressive models with four different lag lengths. Alternative sample sizes and parameterisations are also evaluated and compared to results in the existing literature. The results of the comparative analysis provide strong support for the efficiency based criterion of Akaike and in particular the selection capability of the novel criterion, referred to as a modified corrected Akaike information criterion, demonstrates useful finite sample properties.

Call number: LD2668 .T4 1986 O77 / Master of Science / Biological and Agricultural Engineering

O bioma Cerrado está presente em 91% do Estado do Tocantins. Este bioma apresenta elevada riqueza biológica e nele ocorrem importantes mananciais brasileiros. Com o aumento da emissão de gases do efeito estufa por fontes antrópicas, possíveis mudanças climáticas representam uma ameaça para a diversidade biológica e recursos hídricos deste ambiente. Neste âmbito, uma das principais demandas científicas e ambientais da atualidade consiste da estruturação de modelos climáticos que subsidiem a tomada de decisão, visando a atenuação ou mesmo a mitigação de possíveis impactos decorrentes de mudanças climáticas. Tendo-se em vista as incertezas sobre a concentração futura de GEEs, o IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) estruturou diferentes trajetórias para o forçamento radiativo ao longo do século XXI, sendo denominadas RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). Os RCPs abordam desde futuros otimistas, nos quais a forçante radiativa decorrentes de ações antrópicas é reduzida (RCP 2.6), até situações pessimistas (RCP 8.5), sendo o RCP 4.5 uma situação considerada intermediária. Assim, Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) vem sendo aplicados para a simulação das mudanças climáticas inerentes aos diferentes RCPs ao longo do século XXI. Entretanto, para a análise regional das mudanças climáticas torna-se necessária a regionalização das informações de macro escala geradas pelos MCGs, através de modelos climáticos regionais, com destaque para o modelo Eta no Brasil. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste trabalho foi a avaliação de cenários climáticos simulados pelos modelos climáticos regionais Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5 para o Estado do Tocantins. O presente estudo foi estruturado em dois capítulos com objetivos específicos, sendo: (1) avaliar a qualidade estatística do clima presente ou baseline (1961-2005) projetado pelos modelos climáticos para a localização de cinco estações meteorológicas que dispõe de dados observados (precipitação total anual, precipitação máxima diária anual, temperatura máxima diária anual, temperatura média anual, temperatura mínima diária anual e umidade relativa anual), sendo: Araguaína, Pedro Afonso, Peixe, Porto Nacional e Taguatinga; (2) mapeamento das mudanças climáticas simuladas para o Estado do Tocantins pelos modelos climáticos Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5 nos RCPs 4.5 e 8.5, nos períodos seco e chuvoso, para os intervalos de 2007 a 2040 e 2041 a 2070, abrangendo as seguintes variáveis: precipitação, evapotranspiração real, temperatura máxima, temperatura média, temperatura mínima e umidade relativa. Os resultados mostraram necessidade de realização da remoção dos erros sistemáticos dos modelos climáticos previamente à utilização das projeções futuras. Quanto à simulação do clima presente, o modelo Eta-MIROC5 obteve melhor desempenho para a precipitação total anual e umidade relativa anual, enquanto que o modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES obteve melhor desempenho para a temperatura (máxima diária anual, média anual e mínima diária anual). Na simulação climática futura, de maneira geral, ambos modelos apresentaram prognósticos mais severos para o RCP 8.5 no segundo período futuro avaliado (2041 a 2070) para o Estado do Tocantins. As projeções do modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES apresentaram maior grau de severidade para a precipitação, temperatura (máxima, média e mínima), evapotranspiração real e umidade relativa, quando comparadas às projeções do Eta-MIROC5. O modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES projetou para o período de 2041 a 2070 (RCP 8.5) aumento da temperatura média de até 4,9 ºC, enquanto que para o mesmo período e RCP simulado pelo Eta-MIROC5 o aumento projetado foi de 2,9 ºC. Ainda para este período e RCP as reduções simuladas para a precipitação chegou a 462,1 e 383,1 mm, pelos modelos Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5, respectivamente. Foram simuladas regiões do Estado com mudanças climáticas mais severas. Destaca-se a região Centro-Sul, nas proximidades da UHE Peixe/Angical para o regime de chuvas e a região Sul da Ilha do Bananal e APA dos Meandros do rio Araguaia para a temperatura. / The Cerrado biome is present in 91% of the State of Tocantins. This biome presents high biological wealth and in it occur important Brazilian springs. With increasing greenhouse gas emissions by anthropic sources, possible climatic change poses a threat to the biological diversity and water resources of this environment. In this context, one of the main scientific and environmental demands of today consist in the structuring of climatic models that subsidize decision making, aiming the attenuation or even mitigation of possible impacts due to climatic change. Given the uncertainties about the future concentration of GHGs, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has structured different paths for radiative forcing throughout the XXI century, being called RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). The RCPs approach from optimistic futures, in which the radiative forcing due to anthropic actions is reduced (RCP 2.6), to pessimistic situations (RCP 8.5), with RCP 4.5 being considered as an intermediate situation. Thus, Global Climatic Models (MCGs) have been applied to the simulation of the climatic changes inherent in different CPRs throughout theXXI century. However, regional analysis of climate change requires the regionalization of macro-scale information generated by MCGs through regional climate models, with emphasis on the Eta model in Brazil. In this context, the objective of this work was the evaluation of climatic scenarios simulated by the regional climatic models Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 for the State of Tocantins. The present study was structured in two chapters with specific objectives, being: (1) to evaluate the statistical quality of the present or baseline climate (1961-2005) projected by the climatic models for the location of five meteorological stations with observed data (annual total precipitation, annual maximum daily precipitation, annual maximum daily temperature, average temperature Annual, annual minimum daily temperature and annual relative humidity), being: Araguaína, Pedro Afonso, Peixe, Porto Nacional and Taguatinga; (2) mapping of simulated climatic changes for the State of Tocantins by the climatic models Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 in RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, in the dry and rainy periods, for the intervals from 2007 to 2040 and 2041 to 2070, covering the following variables: precipitation, real evapotranspiration, maximum temperature, average temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity. The results showed the need to perform to remove systematic errors of the climatic models previously to the use of future projections. Regarding the simulation of the present climate, the Eta-MIROC5 model obtained better performance for the annual total precipitation and annual relative humidity, while the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model obtained better performance for temperature (daily maximum annual, annual average and minimum daily Yearly). In the future climatic simulation, both models presented more severe prognoses for RCP 8.5 in the second evaluated future period (2041 to 2070) for the state of Tocantins. The projections of the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model showed a higher degree of severity for precipitation, temperature (maximum, average and minimum), actual evapotranspiration and relative humidity when compared to Eta-MIROC5 projections. The Eta-HadGEM2-ES model projected for the period from 2041 to 2070 (RCP 8.5) an increase in the mean temperature up to 4.9 ° C, whereas for the same period and CPR simulated by Eta-MIROC5 the projected increase was 2, 9 ° C. Also for this period and CPR the simulated reductions for precipitation reached 462.1 and 383.1 mm, by the Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5 models, respectively. Were simulated regions of the state with more severe climate changes. The Center-South region, near the Peixe / Angical HPP for the rainfall regime and the Southern region of the Bananal Island and the APA of the Meandros of the Araguaia river for the temperature, stands out.

This study presents the methodology for estimating the incidence rate from the age specific prevalence data of three different eye diseases. We consider both situations where the mortality may differ from one person to another, with and without the disease. The method used was developed by Marvin J. Podgor for estimating incidence rate from prevalence data. It delves into the application of logistic regression to obtain the smoothed prevalence rates that helps in obtaining incidence rate. The study concluded that the use of logistic regression can produce a meaningful model, and the incidence rates of these diseases were not affected by the assumption of differential mortality.

Accurate and reliable effort estimation is still one of the most challenging processes in software engineering. There have been numbers of attempts to develop cost estimation models. However, the evaluation of model accuracy and reliability of those models have gained interest in the last decade. A model can be finely tuned according to specific data, but the issue remains there is the selection of the most appropriate model. A model predictive accuracy is determined by the difference of the various accuracy measures. The one with minimum relative error is considered to be the best fit. The model predictive accuracy is needed to be statistically significant in order to be the best fit. This practice evolved into model evaluation. Models predictive accuracy indicators need to be statistically tested before taking a decision to use a model for estimation. The aim of this thesis is to statistically evaluate well known effort estimation models according to their predictive accuracy indicators using two new approaches; bootstrap confidence intervals and permutation tests. In this thesis, the significance of the difference between various accuracy indicators were empirically tested on the projects obtained from the International Software Benchmarking Standard Group (ISBSG) data set. We selected projects of Un-Adjusted Function Points (UFP) of quality A. Then, the techniques; Analysis Of Variance ANOVA and regression to form Least Square (LS) set and Estimation by Analogy (EbA) set were used. Step wise ANOVA was used to form parametric model. K-NN algorithm was employed in order to obtain analogue projects for effort estimation use in EbA. It was found that the estimation reliability increased with the pre-processing of the data statistically, moreover the significance of the accuracy indicators were not only tested statistically but also with the help of more complex inferential statistical methods. The decision of selecting non-parametric methodology (EbA) for generating project estimates in not by chance but statistically proved.

Product success is a major goal of designing and design research. Designing involves developing systems. A system interacts with its environment to satisfy its requirements. Therefore, designing should involve developing the concept of both the system and its surrounding. Depending on how the concept of the system changes will impinge on the concept of the environment, and vice-versa; design must co-evolve the concepts of both the system and its environment to adapt them to each other. A comprehensive review of literature on designing to explore the use of system-environment view in designing revealed that while the concept of systems is used by many design models, implicitly or explicitly, the concept of environment is rarely used as an evolvable construct in designing. Activities, outcomes, requirement-solution and system-environment views play a significant role in product success. Thus, it is important to explicitly address these views in designing. Further, integration of these views is important for explaining various complex characteristics of designing such as requirement-solution co-evolution and system-environment co-evolution. Integration of views is important also for mapping the steps in design models using these views, so as to be able to characterize design models, or benchmark one design model against another. Literature has been reviewed to identify the constructs in these views that are essential for representing the design process. Srinivasan and Chakrabarti [2010] had earlier developed a model of designing by integrating three of these views: activities, outcomes, and requirement-solution. However, this model did not incorporate the system-environment view. In this thesis, a system-environment view is developed, with both the system and environment as explicit and evolvable constructs in designing. The thesis then proposed an extended, integrated model of designing which combines the constructs of the identified views of activities, outcomes, requirement-solution and system-environment. The proposed model is empirically validated using protocols from six design sessions; the sesessions had been undertaken well before the proposed model was developed.Validation involved checking whether or not instances of all the constructs in the model are naturally present in these design sessions, and whether or not every event in these design sessions could be described using the constructs of the proposed model. Further, the explanatory power of the proposed model is illustrated by explaining how system-environment co-evolution and requirement-solution co-evolution occur during the design sessions captured in the protocols. Also, a standard prescriptive approach to designing –Pahl and Beitz approach – is used to demonstrate how a design model can be mapped using the constructs of the proposed model–the first step to characterizing or benchmarking design models.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / This research introduces a new design of a converter modified from SEPIC converter (Single end primary inductive converter), capable of generating desired voltage levels and polarities. The new switching converter topology allows for boost and buck of the input voltage theoretically achieving infinite positive and negative voltage levels. The proposed topology utilizes single high frequency switch to perform the power conversion which simplifies the design of the gate driver, but meanwhile, it still retains the ability to provide a wide range of output voltage. Mathematical modeling of the converter and computer simulations are validated by experimental data. To verify its performance a prototype was designed and built. It is experimentally proven that the circuit can generate a desired voltage in the range of voltages up to ±170 V, delivering 480 Watts of power to a resistive load.