The performance of the century-old irrigation system of Pakistan (i.e. warabandi) has been evaluated using socio-economic data gathered by the author in multiple farmers?? surveys (n=278) conducted in Indus Basin of Pakistan. In the surveyed regions, the warabandi system was performing poorly. In-built rigidity in water allocations was found as main reason behind its poor performance. The results from the farmers?? surveys also revealed that the objective of increasing irrigation water productivity would never be attained under the warabandi arrangements. Hence, a completely new concept that could replace the warabandi system and improve the productivity of limited irrigation water should be introduced. My aim was to find a better way to allocate the scarce water resource between farmers. In this study, I have introduced a new concept for determining water allocations among the farmers, which is based on a multicriterion decision making (MCDM) approach. The consideration of multiple criteria in irrigation water allocations would improve irrigation water productivity. Upon an extensive survey of well-known MCDM methods, I concluded that all previously existing MCDM methods were using subjective inputs, usually from a single modeller, to establish priorities of alternatives and therefore, a predetermined solution could easily be obtained. I have developed an approach based on conjoint analysis which removes that subjectivity from the chosen MCDM method (i.e. ELECTRE). Interval scales and relative importance criteria weights, two usually subjective inputs in ELECTRE, are objectively estimated from the conjoint analysis study. For that purpose, the author designed a conjoint questionnaire and administered it to 62 farmer respondents in face-to-face interviews. Conjoint analysis, which does not appear to have been previously used in water resources or allocation studies, is a method for creating the interval scales and the relative criteria weights objectively from the respondents?? judgements on the importance of conjoint objects. The objective estimation of these two important factors is a completely new development which can assist in the unbiased determination of the best division or allocation of scarce water resources between farmers. The approach is applied, as a demonstration, to a region with nine distributary watercourses to determine which of the distributaries should have the highest priority for allocation of the regional water.

The performance of the century-old irrigation system of Pakistan (i.e. warabandi) has been evaluated using socio-economic data gathered by the author in multiple farmers?? surveys (n=278) conducted in Indus Basin of Pakistan. In the surveyed regions, the warabandi system was performing poorly. In-built rigidity in water allocations was found as main reason behind its poor performance. The results from the farmers?? surveys also revealed that the objective of increasing irrigation water productivity would never be attained under the warabandi arrangements. Hence, a completely new concept that could replace the warabandi system and improve the productivity of limited irrigation water should be introduced. My aim was to find a better way to allocate the scarce water resource between farmers. In this study, I have introduced a new concept for determining water allocations among the farmers, which is based on a multicriterion decision making (MCDM) approach. The consideration of multiple criteria in irrigation water allocations would improve irrigation water productivity. Upon an extensive survey of well-known MCDM methods, I concluded that all previously existing MCDM methods were using subjective inputs, usually from a single modeller, to establish priorities of alternatives and therefore, a predetermined solution could easily be obtained. I have developed an approach based on conjoint analysis which removes that subjectivity from the chosen MCDM method (i.e. ELECTRE). Interval scales and relative importance criteria weights, two usually subjective inputs in ELECTRE, are objectively estimated from the conjoint analysis study. For that purpose, the author designed a conjoint questionnaire and administered it to 62 farmer respondents in face-to-face interviews. Conjoint analysis, which does not appear to have been previously used in water resources or allocation studies, is a method for creating the interval scales and the relative criteria weights objectively from the respondents?? judgements on the importance of conjoint objects. The objective estimation of these two important factors is a completely new development which can assist in the unbiased determination of the best division or allocation of scarce water resources between farmers. The approach is applied, as a demonstration, to a region with nine distributary watercourses to determine which of the distributaries should have the highest priority for allocation of the regional water.

Em meio às crises, surgem as ameaças e as oportunidades na Rede Mundial de Computadores. A Internet, âncora do Comércio Eletrônico, apresenta estas duas situações implícitas. Um grande acumulo de situações que se tornam ameaçadoras, as quais quando tratadas utilizando um embasamento científico, aprovado experimentalmente; são consideradas favoráveis, transformando-as em uma grande oportunidade de sucesso em uma próspera empresa, participante desse mundo virtual do comércio eletrônico na Internet. Com o intuito de colaborar com esta situação que envolve decisões importantes e estratégicas, grande volume de recursos, cujas soluções têm influência no futuro das organizações, esta dissertação propõe um modelo de avaliação para empresas de comércio eletrônico, visando sua melhoria contínua, através da aplicação recursiva desta avaliação. Tal modelo informado pelos juízos de valores daqueles responsáveis pelo site, objetiva identificar as limitações e potencialidades da empresa, diante dos cenários ameaçadores e oportunistas que se apresentam no momento de sua aplicação. Para a construção do modelo, foi eleita a metodologia Multicritério de Apoio à Decisão - MCDA, fundamentada cientificamente e com comprovada eficiência em aplicações práticas, considerada a mais adequada, por sua capacidade de gerar conhecimento aos participantes, através de um processo construtivista, e por sua capacidade de integrar tanto elementos objetivos quanto subjetivos. A partir da aplicação do modelo, será observado o perfil de desempenho de um site de comércio eletrônico mediante as ameaças e oportunidades existentes, sendo possível elaborar as recomendações e análises das ações, objetivando a melhoria da empresa de forma progressiva e contínua, servindo de referencial para aplicações futuras. / During times of crises, threats and opportunities will certainly arise in the computer World Wide Web. The Internet, an e-commerce anchor, presents both aforementioned situations. Many of these situations may become threatening, however, when treated by means of an experimentally proven scientific process, they can be changed into great opportunities for a company which participates in the Internet e-commerce virtual world. This situation involves important and strategic decisions, and a great amount of resources, which can lead to solutions that will have a great influence in the future of the organizations. In this way, this thesis proposes an evaluation model for e-commerce companies seeking continuous improvement by the recursive application of it. This evaluation model, that requires information provided by the site management, has as a goal to identify the company limitations and potentialities, in the presence of the threatening and opportunistic scenario existing at the moment of its application. For the development of the evaluation model, the MCDA - Multicriteria Decision Aid has been selected, as it is regarded as a scientifically well-founded methodology. Having its efficiency proven by practical applications, this methodology has been considered the most appropriate, because it generates knowledge to the participants, through a constructive process and for its capability of integrating both objective and subjective elements. Through the application of this model, the performance profile of the e-commerce sites will be observed, in face of the existing threats and opportunities. Thus, it becomes possible to elaborate the recommendations and analyses of actions to be taken, in order to improve the enterprise in a progressive and continuous way. Furthermore, this research can be used as a reference for future applications.

Em meio às crises, surgem as ameaças e as oportunidades na Rede Mundial de Computadores. A Internet, âncora do Comércio Eletrônico, apresenta estas duas situações implícitas. Um grande acumulo de situações que se tornam ameaçadoras, as quais quando tratadas utilizando um embasamento científico, aprovado experimentalmente; são consideradas favoráveis, transformando-as em uma grande oportunidade de sucesso em uma próspera empresa, participante desse mundo virtual do comércio eletrônico na Internet. Com o intuito de colaborar com esta situação que envolve decisões importantes e estratégicas, grande volume de recursos, cujas soluções têm influência no futuro das organizações, esta dissertação propõe um modelo de avaliação para empresas de comércio eletrônico, visando sua melhoria contínua, através da aplicação recursiva desta avaliação. Tal modelo informado pelos juízos de valores daqueles responsáveis pelo site, objetiva identificar as limitações e potencialidades da empresa, diante dos cenários ameaçadores e oportunistas que se apresentam no momento de sua aplicação. Para a construção do modelo, foi eleita a metodologia Multicritério de Apoio à Decisão - MCDA, fundamentada cientificamente e com comprovada eficiência em aplicações práticas, considerada a mais adequada, por sua capacidade de gerar conhecimento aos participantes, através de um processo construtivista, e por sua capacidade de integrar tanto elementos objetivos quanto subjetivos. A partir da aplicação do modelo, será observado o perfil de desempenho de um site de comércio eletrônico mediante as ameaças e oportunidades existentes, sendo possível elaborar as recomendações e análises das ações, objetivando a melhoria da empresa de forma progressiva e contínua, servindo de referencial para aplicações futuras. / During times of crises, threats and opportunities will certainly arise in the computer World Wide Web. The Internet, an e-commerce anchor, presents both aforementioned situations. Many of these situations may become threatening, however, when treated by means of an experimentally proven scientific process, they can be changed into great opportunities for a company which participates in the Internet e-commerce virtual world. This situation involves important and strategic decisions, and a great amount of resources, which can lead to solutions that will have a great influence in the future of the organizations. In this way, this thesis proposes an evaluation model for e-commerce companies seeking continuous improvement by the recursive application of it. This evaluation model, that requires information provided by the site management, has as a goal to identify the company limitations and potentialities, in the presence of the threatening and opportunistic scenario existing at the moment of its application. For the development of the evaluation model, the MCDA - Multicriteria Decision Aid has been selected, as it is regarded as a scientifically well-founded methodology. Having its efficiency proven by practical applications, this methodology has been considered the most appropriate, because it generates knowledge to the participants, through a constructive process and for its capability of integrating both objective and subjective elements. Through the application of this model, the performance profile of the e-commerce sites will be observed, in face of the existing threats and opportunities. Thus, it becomes possible to elaborate the recommendations and analyses of actions to be taken, in order to improve the enterprise in a progressive and continuous way. Furthermore, this research can be used as a reference for future applications.

Dans un environnement fortement concurrentiel, les industriels doivent constamment améliorer leurs produits pour rester compétitifs et satisfaire au mieux leurs clients tout en minimisant les coûts et la prise de risques en conception. En phase préliminaire de conception ou de (re-)engineering, prédire les performances de nouveaux produits est une tâche difficile. En effet, l’impact des changements opérés sur les caractéristiques du produit relativement aux performances de celui-ci ne peut être estimé que de façon imprécise. Décideurs et concepteurs doivent pourtant identifier les performances à améliorer en limitant les efforts d’ingénierie déployés pour des améliorations innovantes. Bien que plusieurs indicateurs de plus-value aient été proposés par la communauté de la décision multicritère pour évaluer a priori l’amélioration que confère un changement de configuration à un produit, ils semblent néanmoins reposer sur des hypothèses de réalisabilité des gains de performance peu réalistes dans le contexte manufacturier.Sur la base de techniques d’analyse multicritère et de théorie des possibilités, cette thèse propose une extension de ces indices de plus-values lorsque la vraisemblance des améliorations espérées ne peut être évaluée de façon précise comme c’est le cas en phase de conception préliminaire. Cette connaissance imparfaite des relations entre les actions d’amélioration et les performances espérées rend la question « comment se fixer des objectifs ambitieux lorsque l’on conçoit ou améliore un produit tout en faisant en sorte que ces objectifs restent à la portée du manufacturier ? » d’autant plus complexe. Ainsi, les améliorations qu’il faut planifier doivent à la fois avoir un impact significatif sur la performance du produit et correspondre à des compétences maîtrisées par le manufacturier. Plusieurs approches de la littérature se sont intéressées à ces deux aspects de l’amélioration, mais peu d’entre elles les considèrent conjointement. Nous proposons dans cette thèse plusieurs approches qualitatives et possibilistes qui concilient les deux points de vue à travers des problèmes d’optimisation multi-attributs. La notion d’interaction entre deux dimensions de la performance y est centrale. Un exemple relatif à la conception d’un robot autonome est proposé pour illustrer chacune de nos propositions. Cette étude de cas est issue du challenge Robafis qui est organisé annuellement par l’Association Française d’ingénierie Système (AFIS) pour promouvoir l’ingénierie système dans les écoles d’ingénieurs. / In a highly competitive and unstable environment, manufacturers must constantly improve their products to remain competitive and satisfy their customers while minimizing incurred costs and risk taking at the design stage. At the early stages of (re-)engineering, performances forecasting of new product is complicated. Indeed, the impacts of any characteristic change on the product performance are not precisely known. Decision makers must thus identify the performances to be improved while limiting the engineering efforts spent on innovative upgrades. Although some theoretical worth indexes have been proposed in the multiple criteria decision-making literature to estimate the expectable gains when improving changes are planned, they generally rely on non-realistic assumptions on the achievability of the expected improvements that cannot hold in manufacturing contexts. Based on multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and uncertainty theory, this thesis proposes an extension of the worth index concept when the likelihood of the expected improvements is not precisely known as it is the case at the preliminary stages of design activities. This poor knowledge of the relationships between improvement actions and expected performances makes the issue “how to set ambitious targets when improving or designing product while these targets remain within the reach of the manufacturer” all the thornier. Thus, improvements to be focused on are those which both have a significant positive impact on product performance and correspond to operational changes properly under control by the manufacturer. While some approaches in the literature have already addressed each of the two aspects of the improvement problem, few deal with both of them at the same time. We investigate several qualitative and possibilistic approaches that conciliate both points of view as multi attributes optimization problems. The notion of interaction between any two objectives to be simultaneously satisfied is central in our framework. An illustrative example related to the design phase of autonomous robot is provided. This case study is issued from the robotic challenge Robafis that is organized annually by the French association of Systems Engineering AFIS to promote Systems Engineering practice in engineers’ schools.

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