No description available.

The Southeast United States during summer and fall is often affected by droughts and tropical cyclones. Both phenomena rank among the most expensive of natural hazards, although droughts are not as feared by the public as hurricanes. When a tropical cyclone causes a pendulum swing from drought to wet conditions, it is known as a “drought-busting tropical cyclone.” The majority of the research related to drought busting tropical cyclones investigates only the storms during their tropical cyclone phase, which covers the southeastern states that have boundaries adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean. An unanswered question from this literature is whether or not these findings apply to the interior southeastern states that have no ocean boundaries, where there is an increase in the probability of a drought-busting tropical cyclone transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone. This thesis research attempts to determine the impact of drought-busting cyclones on the states of Kentucky and Tennessee. Research findings in this thesis revealed that droughts occur more frequently in the eastern climate divisions of the study area, 2-3 tropical cyclones affect the study area each year, and 6% of warm-season precipitation comes from tropical cyclones or their remnants. Chi-Square analysis and Kruskal-Wallis tests suggest that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has statistically significant relationships with drought frequency, tropical cyclone precipitation, and extra-tropical cyclone precipitation in several climate divisions. While the literature argues that drought-busting tropical cyclones are common in coastal locations, they were found to be rare in Kentucky and Tennessee.

No description available.

Ice cores are considered the gold standard for recording past climate and biogeochemical changes. However, gas records derived from ice core analysis have until now been largely limited to centennial and longer timescales because sufficient temporal resolution and analytical precision have been lacking, except during rare times when atmospheric concentrations changed rapidly. In this thesis I used a newly developed methane measurement line to make high-resolution, high-precision measurements of methane during the late Holocene (2800 years BP to present). This new measurement line is capable of an analytical precision of < 3 ppb using ~120 g samples whereas the previous highest resolution measurements attained a precision of ± 4.1 ppb using 500-1500g samples [MacFarling Meure et al., 2006]. The reduced sample size requirements as well as automation of a significant portion of the analysis process have enabled me to make >1500 discrete ice core methane measurements and construct the highest resolution records of methane available over the late Holocene. Ice core samples came from the recently completed West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core which has as one of its primary scientific objectives to produce the highest resolution records of greenhouse gases, and from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP2) ice core which is a proven paleoclimate archive. My thesis has the following three components. I first used a shallow ice core from WAIS Divide (WDC05A) to produce a 1000 year long methane record with a ~9 year temporal resolution. This record confirmed the existence of multidecadal scale variations that were first observed in the Law Dome, Antarctica ice core. I then explored a range of paleoclimate archives for possible mechanistic connections with methane concentrations on multidecadal timescales. In addition, I present a detailed description of the analytical methods used to obtain high-precision measurements of methane including the effects of solubility and a new chronology for the WDC05A ice core. I found that, in general, the correlations with paleoclimate proxies for temperature and precipitation were low over a range of geographic regions. Of these, the highest correlations were found from 1400-1600 C.E. during the onset of the Little Ice Age and with a drought index in the headwater region of the major East Asian rivers. Large population losses in Asia and the Americas are also coincident with methane concentration decreases indicating that anthropogenic activities may have been impacting multidecadal scale methane variability. In the second component I extended the WAIS Divide record back to 2800 years B.P. and also measured methane from GISP2D over this time interval. These records allowed me to examine the methane Inter-Polar Difference (IPD) which is created by greater northern hemispheric sources. The IPD provides an important constraint on changes in the latitudinal distribution of sources. We used this constraint and an 8-box global methane chemical transport model to examine the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis which posits that humans began influencing climate thousands of years ago by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and preventing the onset of the next ice age. I found that most of the increase in methane sources over this time came from tropical regions with a smaller contribution coming from the extratropical northern hemisphere. Based on previous modeling estimates of natural methane source changes, I found that the increase in the southern hemisphere tropical methane emissions was likely natural and that the northern hemispheric increase in methane emissions was likely due to anthropogenic activities. These results also provide new constraints on the total magnitude of pre-industrial anthropogenic methane emissions, which I found to be between the high and low estimates that have been previously published in the literature. For the final component of my thesis I assembled a coalition of scientists to investigate the effects of layering on the process of air enclosure in ice at WAIS Divide. Air bubbles are trapped in ice 60-100m below the surface of an ice sheet as snow compacts into solid ice in a region that is known as the Lock-In Zone (LIZ). The details of this process are not known and in the absence of direct measurements previous researchers have assumed it to be a smooth process. This project utilized high-resolution methane and air content measurements as well as density of ice, δ¹⁵N of N₂, and bubble number density measurements to show that air entrapment is affected by high frequency (mm scale) layering in the density of ice within the LIZ. I show that previous parameterizations of the bubble closure process in firn models have not accounted for this variability and present a new parameterization which does. This has implications for interpreting rapid changes in trace gases measured in ice cores since variable bubble closure will impact the smoothing of those records. In particular it is essential to understand the details of this process as new high resolution ice core records from Antarctica and Greenland examine the relative timing between greenhouse gases and rapid climate changes. / Graduation date: 2013

The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from "top-down" influences (e. g., climate) to "bottom-up" localized influences (e. g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad-scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up drivers of fire in a region where frequent fire regimes continued well into the 20th century. Using a network of 67 sites, we assessed (1) fire synchrony and the scales at which synchrony is evident, (2) climate drivers of fire, and (3) asynchrony in fire regime changes. We found high fire synchrony across northern Mexico between 1750 and 2008, with synchrony highest at distances < 400 km. Climate oscillations, especially El Nino-Southern Oscillation, were important drivers of fire synchrony. However, bottom-up factors modified fire occurrence at smaller spatial scales, with variable local influence on the timing of abrupt, unusually long fire-free periods starting between 1887 and 1979 CE. Thirty sites lacked these fire-free periods. In contrast to the neighboring southwestern United States, many ecosystems in northern Mexico maintain frequent fire regimes and intact fire-climate relationships that are useful in understanding climate influences on disturbance across scales of space and time.

A variety of anthropomorphic and environmental stresses are threatening the existence of all seven species of sea turtles. There is growing evidence that alterations in surface waters and sediment temperatures are negatively impacting reproductive success of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta). Fluctuations in water temperature associated with localized climate oscillations heavily alter the food web dynamics of the ocean. Feeding conditions are expected to be a critical factor in determining body mass and productivity for breeding seasons. An increase in regional temperatures could lead to prolonged reduction in food sources, as well as reduced nesting and recruitment. Loggerhead sea turtle nesting data from 1995-2011 werre compared with the average yearly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which are important climatic events impacting the SST in the Atlantic Ocean. Because El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global event, it was proposed that turtles in the Atlantic may follow a similar trend. ENSO was quantified using Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). Analysis of loggerhead sea turtle nest frequencies from the years 1995-2011 in comparison to seasonal climate changes showed a significant inverse relationship between the detrended loggerhead nests and average yearly NAO when lagged two years, suggesting loggerheads may spend years prior breeding obtaining optimum body mass to increase successful reproduction. The detrended nesting data showed a tendency toward higher occurrence of nests during La Niña years while nest frequencies decreased during El Niño year; when the yearly detrended loggerhead nesting data was compared with the average yearly ONI; showing a significant inverse relationship without a lag. This may also suggest a relationship between changes of productivity of the ocean influenced by smaller scale climate changes and loggerhead nest frequencies.

A study of the Nova Scotia surface air temperature over the last century (1900 to 2015) shows that internal variability on inter-annual, decadal and multi-decadal time scales can be partly explained by ocean-atmospheric climate modes, external and anthropogenic forcings. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are shown to be the dominant climate drivers in Nova Scotia. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also shown to be a dominant climate driver but only during the summer. Multivariate models were generated over the full time period using only natural ocean-atmospheric modes of variability but could not explain the rapid increase in the recent rate of warming (post-1980). The inclusion of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing to the models improved their predictive power annually and seasonally. The modelling results show that 11% of the annual variability in Nova Scotia results from natural forcings along with anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing while seasonally up to 28% of the temperature variability can be explained by natural plus greenhouse gas forcings. The annual and seasonal low explained variance suggests that Nova Scotia is poorly modulated by climate indices, specifically during the winter, the time when relationships between ocean-atmospheric modes and the regional climate should be the strongest. It leads to believe that Nova Scotia is located in a transition zone where large-scale ocean-atmospheric modes of variability are transitioning from being positively correlated in a region to being negatively correlated in another region. The results of this study help to better understand how large-scale ocean-atmospheric modes of variability, external and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcings affect Nova Scotia’s surface air temperatures and also provide insight into future potential variability under a changing climate.

No description available.

Utilizando registros isotópicos (\'delta\' \'POT.18\'O e \'delta\'\'POT.13\'C) de alta resolução, razões de elementos-traço em relação ao cálcio e taxas de crescimento de espeleotemas, precisamente datados pelo método U-Th, foi feita uma reconstrução da intensidade do Sistema de Monções Sul-Americano (SMSA) nos últimos 1500 anos na região do município de Bonito, Mato Grosso do Sul. O estudo do sinal climático, interpretado por meio de variações geoquímicas dos espeleotemas, foi realizado com base em estudos e comparações com dados instr umentais de uma estação meteorológica de Bonito, com dados de monitoramentos do IAEA - GNIP de Campo Grande e Cuiabá e com informações de modelos computacionais que simulam a variação de \'delta\'\'POT.18\'O em relação à intensidade das monções na América do Sul, o qual e stá relacionado com variação regional de pluviosidade. Apesar destes dados mostrarem que o amount effect é um dos fatores determinantes na variação das razões isotópicas dos espeleotemas, outros fatores como o degree of rainout upstream e a fonte de umidade (Amazônia x oceano Atlântico sul) também devem ser considerados importantes. Assim, a interpretação das razões de \'delta\'\'POT.18\'O é atribuída à intensidade do sistema de monções e, desta forma, à atuação da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZACS), principalmente associada à propagação de chuvas da região Amazônica para o centro-oeste e sudeste brasileiro. O registro paleoclimático de Bonito mostrou excelente coerência com variados tipos de registros de outros locais da América do Sul, e também com dados do Hemisfério Norte, evidenciando a influência de eventos de escala secular como MCA e LIA na intensidade das monções na América do Sul. A boa correlação entre algumas razões de elementos-traço com a precipitação mostra que o \"amount effect\" não controla totalmente os registros isotópicos. Análises de estatísticas de séries temporais aplicadas aos registros isotópicos e aos registros de elementos-traço permitiram a observação de vários eventos de freqüêcia decadal a multidecadal influenciando as monções da América do Sul. Os principais destes eventos são a NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) e a AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), os quais, pelas flutuações de TSM no Atlântico Norte, desencadeiam teleconexões que têm resultados no posicionamento da Zona de Convergência Intertropical (Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ) e da ZACS. / High-resolution isotope records (\'delta\'\'POT.18\'O e \'delta\'\'POT.13\'C), growth rates, elemental ratios in precisely dated speleothems by U/Th method are used to reconstruct the intensity of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) during the 1500 years in Bonito Region, Mato Grosso do Sul. The interpretations of geochemical variations in speleothems are based on comparative studies with instrumental climatic data and at isotope measurements in rain water at IAEA - GNIP stations in Campo Grande and Cuiabá, as well as from climate model studies using oxygen isotope ratios as tracers of monsoon rainfall intensity. Despite of these data suggest that the \"amount effect\" is a dominant factor controlling the isotope variations in preci pitation, the \"degree of rainout upstream\" is considered also important because the distal influence of SAMS and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) along the moisture transport tra jectory from Amazon to SE Brazilian Coast. The other significant factor to isotope composition to precipitation, therefore to speleothems, is the difference in moisture source area from Amazon Region (summer monsoonal precipitation) and Atlantic Ocean (extratropical regime). Bonito\'s paleoclimate Record indicate very good coherence with other records in South America and Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the response to the global scale climate events such as Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) e Little Ice Age (LIA) on summer precipitation. In these events were evidenced dryer and wetter conditions, respectively, not just from the stable isotope ratios but also from Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios. Time series statistical analysis in the isotope and trace -element records showed that the SAMS is largely influenced by decadal to multidecadal events. In this regard, the most influent climate modes are the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AMO (Atlantic multi Decadal Oscillation), with significant influence on the precipitation variability. In both cases these changes in precipitation are resulted from teleconection with Atlantic Ocean, which impacts the location of ITCZ and consequently the SACZ activity in Central-West Brazil.

Utilizando registros isotópicos (\'delta\' \'POT.18\'O e \'delta\'\'POT.13\'C) de alta resolução, razões de elementos-traço em relação ao cálcio e taxas de crescimento de espeleotemas, precisamente datados pelo método U-Th, foi feita uma reconstrução da intensidade do Sistema de Monções Sul-Americano (SMSA) nos últimos 1500 anos na região do município de Bonito, Mato Grosso do Sul. O estudo do sinal climático, interpretado por meio de variações geoquímicas dos espeleotemas, foi realizado com base em estudos e comparações com dados instr umentais de uma estação meteorológica de Bonito, com dados de monitoramentos do IAEA - GNIP de Campo Grande e Cuiabá e com informações de modelos computacionais que simulam a variação de \'delta\'\'POT.18\'O em relação à intensidade das monções na América do Sul, o qual e stá relacionado com variação regional de pluviosidade. Apesar destes dados mostrarem que o amount effect é um dos fatores determinantes na variação das razões isotópicas dos espeleotemas, outros fatores como o degree of rainout upstream e a fonte de umidade (Amazônia x oceano Atlântico sul) também devem ser considerados importantes. Assim, a interpretação das razões de \'delta\'\'POT.18\'O é atribuída à intensidade do sistema de monções e, desta forma, à atuação da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZACS), principalmente associada à propagação de chuvas da região Amazônica para o centro-oeste e sudeste brasileiro. O registro paleoclimático de Bonito mostrou excelente coerência com variados tipos de registros de outros locais da América do Sul, e também com dados do Hemisfério Norte, evidenciando a influência de eventos de escala secular como MCA e LIA na intensidade das monções na América do Sul. A boa correlação entre algumas razões de elementos-traço com a precipitação mostra que o \"amount effect\" não controla totalmente os registros isotópicos. Análises de estatísticas de séries temporais aplicadas aos registros isotópicos e aos registros de elementos-traço permitiram a observação de vários eventos de freqüêcia decadal a multidecadal influenciando as monções da América do Sul. Os principais destes eventos são a NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) e a AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), os quais, pelas flutuações de TSM no Atlântico Norte, desencadeiam teleconexões que têm resultados no posicionamento da Zona de Convergência Intertropical (Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ) e da ZACS. / High-resolution isotope records (\'delta\'\'POT.18\'O e \'delta\'\'POT.13\'C), growth rates, elemental ratios in precisely dated speleothems by U/Th method are used to reconstruct the intensity of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) during the 1500 years in Bonito Region, Mato Grosso do Sul. The interpretations of geochemical variations in speleothems are based on comparative studies with instrumental climatic data and at isotope measurements in rain water at IAEA - GNIP stations in Campo Grande and Cuiabá, as well as from climate model studies using oxygen isotope ratios as tracers of monsoon rainfall intensity. Despite of these data suggest that the \"amount effect\" is a dominant factor controlling the isotope variations in preci pitation, the \"degree of rainout upstream\" is considered also important because the distal influence of SAMS and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) along the moisture transport tra jectory from Amazon to SE Brazilian Coast. The other significant factor to isotope composition to precipitation, therefore to speleothems, is the difference in moisture source area from Amazon Region (summer monsoonal precipitation) and Atlantic Ocean (extratropical regime). Bonito\'s paleoclimate Record indicate very good coherence with other records in South America and Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the response to the global scale climate events such as Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) e Little Ice Age (LIA) on summer precipitation. In these events were evidenced dryer and wetter conditions, respectively, not just from the stable isotope ratios but also from Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios. Time series statistical analysis in the isotope and trace -element records showed that the SAMS is largely influenced by decadal to multidecadal events. In this regard, the most influent climate modes are the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AMO (Atlantic multi Decadal Oscillation), with significant influence on the precipitation variability. In both cases these changes in precipitation are resulted from teleconection with Atlantic Ocean, which impacts the location of ITCZ and consequently the SACZ activity in Central-West Brazil.