The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational framework. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. The complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. This thesis aims to overcome some of these challenges, and to demonstrate how new modeling approaches can provide successful integrative water resources research. It focuses on the development of new integrated modeling approaches which allow integration of not only physical processes but also socio-economic and environmental issues and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems. To achieve this goal, two new approaches are developed in this thesis. At first, a Bayesian network (BN)-based decision support tool is developed to conceptualize hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems. The method demonstrates the value of combining different commonly used integrated modeling approaches. Coupled component models are applied to simulate the nonlinearity and feedbacks of strongly interacting groundwater-agricultural hydrosystems. Afterwards, a BN is used to integrate the coupled component model results with empirical knowledge and stakeholder inputs. In the second part of this thesis, a fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool is developed to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrates physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approaches are applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structures. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The first method can aid in the impact assessment of alternative management interventions on sustainability of aquifer systems while accounting for economic (agriculture) and societal interests (employment in agricultural sector) in the study area. Results from the second method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach suits to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. The new approaches can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resource systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

Distributed rainfall runoff hydrologic models can be highly effective in improving flood forecasting capabilities at ungauged, interior locations of the watershed. However, their implementation in operational decision-making is hindered by the high dimensionality of the state-parameter space and by lack of methods/understanding on how to properly exploit and incorporate available spatio-temporal information about the system. This dissertation is composed of a sequence of five studies, whose overall goal is to improve understanding on problems relating to parameter identifiability in distributed models and to develop methodologies for their calibration.The first study proposes and investigates an approach for calibrating catchment scale distributed rainfall-runoff models using conventionally available data. The process, called regularization, uses spatial information about soils and land-use that is embedded in prior parameter estimates (Koren et al. 2000) and knowledge of watershed characteristics, to constrain and reduce the dimensionality of the feasible parameter space.The methodology is further extended in the second and third studies to improve extraction of `hydrologically relevant' information from the observed streamflow hydrograph. Hydrological relevance is provided by using signature measures (Yilmaz et al 2008) that correspond to major watershed functions. While the second study applies a manual selection procedure to constrain parameter sets from the subset of post calibrated solutions, the third develops an automatic procedure based on a penalty function optimization approach.The fourth paper investigates the relative impact of using the commonly used multiplier approach to distributed model calibration, in comparison with other spatial regularization strategies and also includes investigations on whether calibration to data at the catchment outlet can provide improved performance at interior locations. The model calibration study conducted for three mid sized catchments in the US led to the important finding that basin outlet hydrographs might not generally contain information regarding spatial variability of the parameters, and that calibration of the overall mean of the spatially distributed parameter fields may be sufficient for flow forecasting at the outlet. This then was the motivation for the fifth paper which investigates to what degree the spatial characteristics of parameter and rainfall fields can be observable in catchment outlet hydrographs.

Šio baigiamojo magistro darbo tikslas yra patobulinti kiekybinį pastatų gaisrinės saugos ir rizikos vertinimą, įtraukiant gaisrinės saugos (rizikos) rodiklius į daugiatikslės analizės uždavinius. Darbą sudaro dvi pagrindinės dalys. Pirmoje teorinėje darbo dalyje aprašomi kiekybinio gaisro rizikos vertinimo modeliai, gaisro rizikos privalumai ir trūkumai, daugiatikslės analizės modeliai, daugiatikslės analizės uždavinio sprendimas ir sprendimo kriterijai, aptariamas gaisrinės rizikos vertinimo ir daugiatikslės analizės derinimo poreikis. Antroje darbo dalyje yra sprendžiamas daugiatikslio pastato projektavimo uždavinys. Kaip uždavinio objektas pasirenkamas daugiaaukštis administracinis pastatas. Vertinamos trys skirtingos aukštų plano alternatyvos: atviro, koridorinio ir mišraus tipo. Taip pat šiame skyriuje yra apibrėžiami daugiatikslei analizei tinkantys gaisro rizikos rodikliai. Taikant kompiuterinį modeliavimą apskaičiuojami evakuacijos ir nepakeliamų sąlygų laikai, suskaičiuojami ekonominiai rodikliai ir apklausos būdu įvertinamas alternatyvių pastato aukštų patrauklumas. Visi šie rodikliai įtraukiami į daugiatikslės analizės uždavinį ir matematiniu būdu nustatoma geriausia alternatyva. Išsprendus uždavinį pateikiamos išvados ir pasiūlymai. Darbo pabaigoje pateikiamas literatūros šaltinių sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 58 p. teksto be priedų, 22 iliustr., 11 lent., 52 biografiniai šaltiniai. / The aim of this postgraduate thesis is to improve quantitative building fire safety and risk assessment, including fire safety (risk) indicators in the analysis of multi-criteria tasks. The work consists of two main parts. The first part is theoretical, it describes the quantitative fire risk assessment models, fire risk advantages and disadvantages, multi-criteria analytical models as well as the solution of multi-criteria analysis problem and solution parameters. The assessment of fire risk and the need for conformance of the multi-criteria analysis is also discussed. The second part of the work, focuses on the multi-criteria building design task. A multi-storey office building has been selected as the task object. Three different floor plan types are evaluated: open space, one with the corridor and the mixed type. In addition fire risk indicators suitable for the multi-criteria analysis are defined in this section. Using computer modeling times of evacuation, unbearable conditions and economic indicators are calculated, then the attractiveness of alternative building storey is assessed according to a survey. All these indicators are included in the task of multiple-criteria analysis and the best solution is determined using mathematical method. After solving the task at the end of the paper findings and recommendations are presented followed by references. Thesis consist of: 58 p. text without appendixes,22 pictures, 11 tables, 52 bibliographical entries.

The main objective of this study is to develop requisite models for information and communication technology (ACT) adoption and diffusion in the banking industry in Thailand. The research, combining two study areas of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) and system dynamics (SD), is conducted using two research methodologies: system development and a case study of the Siam Commercial Bank PCL in Thailand.The study shows how to combine the two decision-making tools of MCDM and system dynamics effectively. The requisite group models of ICT adoption and diffusion provide ways to select the most preferred technology and to allow forward planning to diffuse the adopted technology more effectively. With an embedded decision support tool, decision-makers are able to apply the models with their available information, intuition, knowledge, and experience to improve their decision-making and enhance their learning.Initially, the research revealed that the Siam Commercial Bank currently employs various types of information and communication technologies (ICT) to facilitate work processes, fulfil customers' requirements, and retain its competitive advantage. However, the bank still confronts problems relating to technology adoption and diffusion.A requisite group model of ICT adoption was developed using MCDM as a decision making tool. The model illustrated how to select the most preferable technological alternative that fulfilled the mission of the bank. Results from the MCDM analysis revealed that the preferred technology was Extranet banking followed by a data warehouse. The requisite group model of ICT diffusion was further developed using the system dynamics approach in order to enhance understanding of system behaviour of the selected technology and then provide ways to diffuse it more effectively. The model analyses were divided into three sub-models of information ++ / and communication technologies (ICT), a data warehouse, and Extranet banking.The generic model of ICT can be applied to any particular technology. Results revealed that the pattern of technology diffusion follows the S curve and the dominant variables that may impact on technology diffusion are training, a backlog of problems, and market potential. Furthermore economic returns are obtained only after spending substantially on technological investment. Thus, it is necessary to balance between technological investment and economic returns. The model of diffusion of a data warehouse was developed highlighting the necessity of quality and quantity of knowledge workers. Therefore, training support is an important factor to diffuse this technology. On the other hand, the model of diffusion of Extranet banking revealed that the success of this technology comes from the acceptance by customers. Thus, perceived relative advantages, positive features of the technology and promotional advertising should be taken into consideration. The S curve pattern of technology diffusion is also confirmed by the two technologies.The policy for technology adoption involves the selection of technology, which best fits with identified criteria. The policy analyses of the three technologies confirm that the core important policies that increase technology diffusion and economic gains are increasing positive features of technology, decreasing perceived complexity, increased perceived relative advantages and increasing co-operation between IT people and users. If technology is to support the work performance in an organisation, training support is the dominant policy, whereas if technology facilitates customers directly, marketing strategy such as promotional advertising is vital.The study implied that the banking industry in Thailand is able to use ICT as levers for competitive advantage. ++ / However, technological investment in each bank differs depending on size, objectives and readiness in terms of capital and human resources.All the findings have implications for the bank and could be applied to other banks and general policy makers in various business enterprises.

Thesis (M.A.)--Naval Postgraduate School, 2008. / Description based on title page of source document ( viewed on April 28, 2008). Includes bibliographical references (p. 137-143).

Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Auburn University, 2008. / Abstract. Vita. Includes bibliographic references (p.176-181).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 1996. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 237-256). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 1996. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 237-256). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1991. / Vita. Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 204-214). Also available via the Internet

Thesis (M.S.)--Rochester Institute of Technology, 2008. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 150-151).