Social accounting matrix (SAM) is one of the tools used in regional economic analysis, enabling understanding the structure of the economy as well as analyzing the impacts of policies or exogenous shocks. In this thesis, a two-region SAM of Turkey is constructed for the year 2002 and the findings of multiplier analysis are presented. To this end, first, a two-region input-output (I-O) table is constructed using location quotient (LQ) method and using this two-region I-O table, a two-region SAM is compiled. Then, multiplier analysis is performed on the two-region SAM constructed. According to the results of the multiplier analysis, through an exogenous shock amounting to 1% of GDP gives better results both in absolute and distributional terms when it is originated in region East than region West. This thesis should construct a first step towards more comprehensive analyses including higher level of sectoral detail and micro-data.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(医学) / 甲第21990号 / 医博第4504号 / 新制||医||1037(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院医学研究科医学専攻 / (主査)教授 武藤 学, 教授 松田 文彦, 教授 小川 誠司 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Medical Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

Purpose – This report aims to address the methods used to obtain multi-regional input-output tables (MRIO-tables). Method – The research focuses on three gravity model of trade methods: simple gravity model estimation, doubly constrained gravity model estimation, and gravity model estimation with calibrated error function minimization. These methods are used for estimating and modelling multiregional trade flows, specifically in the context of MRIO-tables. These methods will be denoted as method 1, method 2 and method 3. Through a comparative analysis, the study focuses on the strengths and limitations of these methods and provides valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in the field. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the differences between the methods and their effectiveness in accurately representing MRIO-tables. Findings – This study evaluates three methods (mentioned above) for estimating multiregional trade flows, highlighting their performance. Method 1 and 2, exhibited similarities in their approach to estimating trade flows, both surpassing the performance of method 3 across various evaluation metrics. According to the results, method 1 and 2 are better than method 3 in accurately estimating multiregional trade flows. Limitations – This work had some limitations, the research focused on one specific product and how they flow between and across the regions as well as the total quantity of this product, i.e., the margins.

In various international policy processes such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, an urgent demand for robust consumption-based indicators of material flows, or material footprints (MFs), has emerged over the past years. Yet, MFs for national economies diverge when calculated with different Global Multiregional Input-Output (GMRIO) databases, constituting a significant barrier to a broad policy uptake of these indicators. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impact of data deviations between GMRIO databases on the resulting MF. We use two methods, structural decomposition analysis and structural production layer decomposition, and apply them for a pairwise assessment of three GMRIO databases, EXIOBASE, Eora, and the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) database, using an identical set of material extensions. Although all three GMRIO databases accord for the directionality of footprint results, that is, whether a countries' final demand depends on net imports of raw materials from abroad or is a net exporter, they sometimes show significant differences in level and composition of material flows. Decomposing the effects from the Leontief matrices (economic structures), we observe that a few sectors at the very first stages of the supply chain, that is, raw material extraction and basic processing, explain 60% of the total deviations stemming from the technology matrices. We conclude that further development of methods to align results from GMRIOs, in particular for material-intensive sectors and supply chains, should be an important research priority. This will be vital to strengthen the uptake of demand-based material flow indicators in the resource policy context.

Most countries show a relative decoupling of economic growth from domestic resource use, implying increased resource efficiency. However, international trade facilitates the exchange of products between regions with disparate resource productivity. Hence, for an understanding of resource efficiency from a consumption perspective that takes into account the impacts in the upstream supply chains, there is a need to assess the environmental pressures embodied in trade. We use EXIOBASE3, a new multiregional input-output database, to examine the rate of increase in resource efficiency, and investigate the ways in which international trade contributes to the displacement of pressures on the environment from the consumption of a population. We look at the environmental pressures of energy use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, material use, water use, and land use. Material use stands out as the only indicator growing in both absolute and relative terms to population and gross domestic product (GDP), while land use is the only indicator showing absolute decoupling from both references. Energy, GHG, and water use show relative decoupling. As a percentage of total global environmental pressure, we calculate the net impact displaced through trade rising from 23% to 32% for material use (1995¿2011), 23% to 26% for water use, 20% to 29% for energy use, 20% to 26% for land use, and 19% to 24% for GHG emissions. The results show a substantial disparity between trade-related impacts for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. At the product group level, we observe the most rapid growth in environmental footprints in clothing and footwear. The analysis points to implications for future policies aiming to achieve environmental targets, while fully considering potential displacement effects through international trade.

This paper analyses the effects of enhanced trade between Austria and its four neighbouring Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Slovenia) on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria. The analysis is based on two distinct modelling traditions at the centre of regional science. The first model (a Fischer-Johansson Model of bilateral trade flows) is used to predict the volume and commodity composition of future trade flows based on a long term income scenario. The predicted long-term increases of the trade flows are huge. Exports rise by 190 % and imports by 160 % (compared to 1995). The effects of these trade flows on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria are simulated by means of a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for the Austrian economy. The model contains the 9 Federal Provinces (NUTS-II). The likely implications of the projected trade flows are measured in terms of real income, which can be expected to rise by 1.2 %. The welfare gains will not necesarily be shared equally by all Federal Provinces. The results indicate a clear East-West pattern with the eastern regions of Austria gaining most. (authors' abstract) / Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience

This Chapter summarises the work carried out during the lifetime of the Action by Working Group I whose main task was to build multiregional NEG models. The main results are briefly presented and some of the questions left open are pointed at. Finally, topics for future research are suggested.

The theme of this thesis is to analyze the impact of policy interventions such as financing human development (HD), tax reform and conditional cash transfer programmes, under the framework of growth and sustainable development. These policy instruments are evaluated through the application of both partial and general equilibrium models, and the last paper concentrates on developing regional social accounting matrices (SAMs) as a core database for spatial general equilibrium modelling. Essay 1: Trade-offs in Achieving Human Development Goals for Bangladesh investigates the benefits and costs associated with alternative investment financing options for achieving HD goals by applying the MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goals Studies) model. We find that full achievement of these goals would have led to a GDP loss that would have been significantly larger in the domestic borrowing scenario than in the tax scenario. The tax-financing alternative is thus the better option for financing large development programs. In terms of public spending composition, we find that, under some circumstances, a trade-off arises between overall Millennium Development Goal (MDG) progress and poverty reduction. Essay 2: Welfare impact of broadening VAT by exempting Small-Scale food markets: The case of Bangladesh analyses the welfare impacts of different VAT reforms. A general and uniform VAT on all commodities is preferred as it is more efficient and less administratively costly. However, due to equity concerns, food is normally exempted from VAT. On the other hand, exemptions on food mean that an implicit subsidy is provided to high-income households. Hence, we analyze a broad-based VAT regime with a high threshold that excludes small-scale operators (where the low-income households buy their products most, including food) and the simulation result shows that welfare improves for the low-income households. Essay 3: Effect of Girls’ Secondary School Stipend on Completed Schooling and Age at Marriage: Evidence from Bangladesh estimates the effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on education and age at marriage. We apply both difference in differences (DiD) and regression discontinuity methods to evaluate the impact of the policy instrument. Our estimation results show that the girls in the treatment group who were exposed to the programme had a higher average number of completed years of schooling and also delayed their first marriage compared to the girls in the control group. We also show that the DiD approach might produce a biased result as it does not consider the convergence effect. Essay 4: Estimation of Multiregional Social Accounting Matrices using Transport Data proposes a methodology for estimating multiregional SAMs from a national SAM by applying the cross-entropy method. The methodology makes possible the construction of regional SAMs that are consistent with official regional accounts and minimize deviations from transport data.

The increasing demand for mineral-based resources that face supply risks calls for managing the supply chains for these resources at the regional level. Cobalt is a widely used cathode material in lithium-ion batteries, which form the major portion of batteries used for renewable energy storage - a necessary technology for electrifying mobility and overcoming the challenge of intermittency, thus making renewable energy more reliable and energy generation more sustainable. This necessitates understanding cobalt's supply risks and for the Untied States, identifying sources of cobalt available for future use via recycling or mining. These needs are addressed in this work using single and multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis in combination with graph theory. An MRIO-based approach is developed to obtain the trade network of cobalt and offer a more expedient way to identify potential critical material sources embodied in commodities made domestically. Commodities containing cobalt were disaggregated from two input-output (IO) models and the trade structure of cobalt at the national and state level was observed and compared. The significance of identified key sectors is measured according to several criteria and differences in sectors highlighted in the national versus subnational networks suggests that analysis at the two regional aggregation levels provides alternative insights. Results from mining the IO networks for cobalt highlight the geographical distribution of its use and industries to further investigate as potential sources for secondary feedstock.

Près de deux décennies, après la libéralisation de l’économie tunisienne, les disparités régionales se sont fortement accentuées. Les amples écarts de développement entre les régions du littoral et de l’intérieur sont révélateurs d’une grande hétérogénéité en termes de niveaux de revenus, de croissance, de chômage, de répartition entre activités à forte et à faible productivités et de pauvreté. Si les régions du littoral font partie de l’axe de compétitivité et constituent le centre des branches phares de l’industrie tunisienne, les autres régions de l’intérieur disposent de moins de compétences stratégiques et affichent des performances moyennes, voire même faibles. Aucun processus de convergence régionale n’est enclenché. L’objet de la thèse est de quantifier et d’appréhender les impacts macroéconomiques et microéconomiques de sept réformes de politiques économiques susceptibles de réduire les disparités régionales, dans le cadre d’une approche macro-micro. Approche qui conduit inévitablement à privilégier un cadre d’analyse qui se compose de deux modèles reliés: un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique et multirégional et un modèle de micro simulation. L’implémentation de ces deux modèles a permis de réaliser un exercice de projection et un autre de simulation. Le premier exercice a étudié l’évolution future de l’économie tunisienne, en absence de toutes réformes économiques et/ou choc exogène. Les résultats montrent que le clivage littoral-intérieur devrait s’accentuer si des mesures de correction ne sont pas mises en œuvre. Les résultats de simulation suggèrent qu’une politique de libéralisation commerciale bénéficie plus aux régions du littoral. Pour stimuler la croissance des régions de l’intérieur, il est préférable d’entreprendre des politiques de discrimination positive qui visent à augmenter leurs niveaux d’investissements public et surtout privé. Par ailleurs, la réduction de l’écart de performance économique entre le littoral et l’intérieur du pays ne peut se faire rapidement qu’au moyen d’un changement technologique important dans les régions de l’intérieur. Tous les scénarios envisagés dans ce travail rejettent la nécessité d’un arbitrage entre croissance et pauvreté régionales et confirment donc les possibilités d’une croissance pro-pauvre. / Almost two decades after the liberalization of the Tunisian economy, regional disparities have been accentuated severely and are expected to grow further. The existing gap between the coastal regions and those inland is showing high inequality in terms of levels of income, growth, unemployment, productivity and poverty. The industry in the littoral regions remains the most competitive leading the Tunisian industry, while other regions in the interior lag behind with fewer strategic competences and skills and medium or even low performance. Hence, the process of regional convergence has been broken rather than achieved. The purpose of this research is to assess and quantify the macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts of seven economic policies which aiming to reduce regional disparities in Tunisia. For that purpose, we will use a micro-macro based approach with two interconnected models: A multiregional dynamic general-equilibrium model and a micro-simulation model. The implementation of these two models has enabled a projection exercise and simulation one. The first exercise studied the future evolution of the Tunisian economy in its national and regional dimensions without any economic and / or exogenous shock reforms. The results show that the littoral-internal cleavage is expected to increase if corrective measures will not be implemented. Simulation results show that trade liberalization policy benefits more to coastal regions. However, to stimulate growth performance on behalf of inland regions, positive discrimination action policies, as public and especially private investment increase, will be necessary. Moreover, reducing the economic gap performance between the coast and the interior can be done quickly through a major technological change for regions in the interior. All scenarios in this study reject the possibility of trade-off between growth and regional poverty and thus confirm the potential for pro-poor growth.