CHARLES UNIVERSITY IN PRAGUE FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Political Studies Master thesis 2019 Stephany Victoria Vargas Egas CHARLES UNIVERSITY IN PRAGUE FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Political Studies Stephany Victoria Vargas Egas Scenarios and Strategies for Ecuador in the Context of Emerging Narcoterrorism Master thesis Prague 2019 Author: Stephany Victoria Vargas Egas Supervisor: Mgr. Bohumil Doboš Academic Year: 2018/2019 Bibliographic note VARGAS Stephany. Scenarios and Strategies for Ecuador in the Context of Emerging Narcoterrorism. 71p. Master thesis. Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Political Studies. Supervisor Mgr. Bohumil Doboš Abstract In January 2018, Ecuador woke up to a series of attacks and kidnappings perpetrated by a group of dissidents of the Colombian Peace Accords that are said to be the operative arm of international drug cartels. Governmental reactions have been disappointing and unassertive, increasing the feeling of failure to keep the population safe. Based on "what are possible scenarios and strategies for Ecuadorian government in the context of increasing violence of narco-trafficking?" the present thesis will put in place a creative thinking scenario methodology to provide plausible answers to this central question with inputs...

The nexus between terrorism and narcotics is historically well documented. However, its contemporary development is rarely brought to light. Rather, narcoterrorism is often considered to be an outdated phenomenon and characteristic of only Latin America. Nevertheless, narcoterrorism continues to be a global security concern. As terrorism has evolved over the recent decade, terrorist relations to the narcotic industry have also evolved. Understanding the unique characteristics of contemporary narcoterrorism is important to effectively combating both terrorism and narcotics globally. The intent of this thesis is to comparatively analyze the differences between traditional and contemporary terrorist organizations, and how these differences will affect the international nexus between the narcotic industry and terrorist organizations. The presented research supports the argument of an increasingly strong connection between contemporary terrorist organizations and the contemporary narcotic industry. Case study examples will give testimony to the historically significant and negative effects of narcoterrorism and illustrate the future of narcoterrorism. The overall objectives of this research project is to raise awareness of the role of contemporary narcoterrorism and to promote greater acknowledgement of its potential.

This dissertation aims to provide a strategic qualitative economic analysis of the illicit drug trafficking industry as it evolved in its modern form across the Americas in the latter part of the 20th century, with principal focus on Colombia and Mexico, and to assess its impact on the security environment in the Americas with the ultimate ambition to provide tangible recommendations for complex disruptive countermeasures. The key premise upon which all the conclusions are later formulated is that trafficking in illicit substances is primarily an entrepreneurial activity aimed to generate profit and economic approach to the issue therefore yields the most promising prospects for tangible results. Narcoterrorism in its own merit, and drug-related violence in general, is contemplated, analyzed and explained as one of the key tactics inherent to the trafficking business model. Finally, a critical assessment of existing counter-narcotics strategies is performed in order to outline deficiencies of these policies with the aim to provide alternative and more effective countermeasures against illicit trafficking.

The main objective of thesis ''Narcoterrorism: Crossroads between drug trade and political violence'' is to describe and analyze the phenomenon of narcoterrorism, a concept that combines in its core the politically-motivated violence, the illicit drug trade, and the use of terrorist methods. The goal will be to establish a comprehensive theoretical framework for the various types of narcoterrorism and the different supportive types that may occur between the politically-motivated or ideological groups, and the drug-trafficking criminal groups. This framework will be later primarily tested on the case of Colombia, where various warring ideological and criminal groups will be observed and analyzed. Other cases that will be secondarily used to further prove the established assumptions, will be focusing on other countries which seen in recent history a surge of political or criminal violence, and are either manufacturing or trafficking illegal drugs. These will include Peru, Mexico, and Afghanistan. In the final section of the thesis, the theoretical framework will be assigned to real historical cases, and a question of the prerequisites of narcoterrorist emergence will be discussed.

This thesis investigates how and why U.S. policies and agencies are ill-equipped to respond to narco-terrorism and offers some policy recommendations for remedying that. Narco-terrorism is the merging of terrorism and drug trafficking. Terrorist organizations and narcotics traffickers each have much to offer the other; there is potential for symbiosis in the form of cooperation and even hybridization. Examination of the dynamics between terrorist organizations and drug traffickers, combined with an evaluation of the US responses to narcoterrorism in Colombia and Afghanistan, makes it clear that current US policy responses fail to recognize narcoterrorism as a unique challenge, and instead attempt to deal separately with terrorism and drug trafficking. This approach has the potential to actually worsen both situations. The US needs a narcoterrorism strategy and institutions in place to implement it.