No / In the past, marketing researchers have proposed the use of simple net present value analyses to assess customer lifetime values (CLVs). However, simple net present values disregard two important aspects: (1) environmental risks affecting customer cash flows and (2) a firm's flexibility in reacting to these risks. Consequently, they are inappropriate for assessing CLVs in relationships, in which risks affect customer cash flows and suppliers are able to react. This paper suggests a typology of CLV models in accordance with the degree of environmental risk and the supplier's flexibility. The paper thus contributes to a more differentiated customer lifetime valuation and, consequently, to a more accurate basis for decision making in relationships. The use of real options analysis is recommended for relationships which are affected by environmental risks and in which suppliers are flexible. By applying real options analysis to customer lifetime valuation, the paper offers a new methodological approach, thus merging financial valuation methods with key marketing concepts.

Tirtas labiausiai paplitusių Lietuvoje medžių rūšių (P, E, Ą, U, B, D, J, Bt) grynų medynų auginimo derlingose augavietėse (c, d, f dirvožemio derlingumo ir N, L dirvožemio drėgnumo indeksai) ekonominis efektyvumas. Darbo objektas –ūkinių miškų labiausiai paplitusių medžių rūšių grynų medynų (P išskyrus d, f derlingumus, E, Ą, U, B, J, D, Bt) derlingose augavietėse (c, d, f dirvožemio derlingumo ir N, L dirvožemio drėgnumo indeksai) auginimo ekonominis efektyvumas, išreikštas grynosios dabartinės vertės rodikliais. Šios derlingos augavietės sudaro 44,1 proc. visų Lietuvos miškų. Tyrimų tikslas – palyginti dirbtinai atkuriamų ąžuolynų, uosynų, eglynų bei pušynų ir savaime atželiančių beržynų, juodalksnynų, drebulynų ir baltalksnynų auginimo ekonominį efektyvumą. Darbo metodai - taikytas variantų skaičiavimo metodas. Darbo rezultatai. Taikant įvairius nenukirsto miško kainų variantus ir 3 proc. diskonto normą, nustatyta, kad derlingose augavietėse savaiminis miško atžėlimas minkštųjų lapuočių medžių rūšimis (B, J, D, Bt) yra ekonomiškai efektyvesnis nei ąžuolynų, uosynų, eglynų ar pušynų dirbtinis įveisimas. Nustatyta, kad nenukirsto miško kainos padidėjimas, tiesiogiai veikia medynų auginimo ekonominio vertinimo rodiklius, šiuo atveju GDV. Raktažodžiai: medynų auginimas, technologinė savikaina, ekonominis efektyvumas, grynoji dabartinė vertė, diskonto norma, vidutinė metinė grynoji dabartinė vertė, nenukirsto miško kaina. / The economic efficiency of growing the pure stand of the most common tree species ( pine, spruce, oak, ash tree, birch, aspen, black an dgrey alder) inLithuania‘s fertile site type habitats ( c,d,f – soil fertility and N,L indice of soil moisture) has been studied. Research object: Economic efficiency of growing pure stand of the most common tree species in fertile habitats, expressed by the net present value of the indicators ( soil fertility, soil moisture indice). The fertile sites constitute 44,1 percent of all the forests in Lithuania. Researchaim: To compare the economic efficiency of artificially reforested oak, ash, spruce and pine stands with natural regeneration of birches, black alders, grey alders and aspens. Research methods: Variant calculation method was applied. Research outcomes: By applying diverse price options for uncut forest and 3percent discount rate, it was estimated that self – regeneration of soft deciduous tree species in fertile habitats is more cost effective than artificial afforestation with oaks, ash trees, spruces and pines. The price increase was found to have a direct effect on the economic indicators of forest growing. Keywords: forest growing, technological cost, economic efficiency, net present value, discount rate, the average annual net present value, the price of uncut forest.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Christine Wilson / During the past two decades, there has been major consolidation in the grain handling industry. Staying competitive in today’s environment involves finding projects that add value from a strategic geographic standpoint and a revenue generation standpoint. This study examines several economic factors regarding growth opportunities of facility assets that exist in Northern Kansas, and what the associated cost structure would look like based on a business feasibility study. This study researched the county production by volume and acreage devoted to crop production as well as bid structures and freight spreads of competitors currently in the region today. It also involved researching the margin structures, and it considered a strategic decision about the size of facility that could be built on the existing margin opportunity. Several economic theories were used to derive the feasibility of this research and measure the profitability of the project. Farmer sentiment was polled and a focus group was assembled to understand the opportunity that Scoular may have in the region. The results found a region that provides a steady volume of crop production and margins that are typical of those that Scoular is experiencing in other regions of the state. The research also found the farmers of this geography, receptive to more competition entering the market place.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Providing a recommendation on whether to make a capacity expanding capital investment in an existing butter plant is the subject of this thesis. This is important as the success of this project will have a significant impact on the future profitability of Land O'Lakes and provide a significant home for its member's milk production. The dairy industry has undergone change over the past decades. Milk production has moved from the traditional production area of the Upper Midwest to drier, more arid areas such as California. This has led to milk price premiums in the Upper Midwest and since milk is the major input to butter manufacturing, it has become more attractive to produce butter in other areas such as California. Much of the data collected in review of the industry were obtained from the USDA. This data were used to describe the industry and focus on the number of butter plants over time, the milk productivity per cow, and the total milk production by state. It provides a clear picture of fewer bigger plants, more productive cows, and a dramatic shift in milk production to the West, primarily California. A Net Present Value (NPV) model is developed to analyze the trade off between the initial capital investment and less costly milk procurement over time. The model also considers maintenance costs, salvage values, plant startup delays, and a one time salvage value gain by shutting down an Upper Midwest plant. After the initial model is developed, sensitivity analysis is conducted, focusing on key variables such as demand growth, and the spread between California and Upper Midwest milk prices. The conclusion is that additional investment in California butter production would be profitable, earning a positive NPV and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) greater than the Land O'Lakes cost of capital. The solution is robust as they remain the same even after modeling lower demand and smaller milk price differentials. Therefore, I recommend that Land O'Lakes move ahead with this capital investment.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Vincent R. Amanor-Boadu / Biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel are looked upon as the future source of alternative energy. These biofuels will supplement the needs of the ever increasing demand for fuel. Bio-energy feedstock is in high demand and current bio-crude oil prices such as soybeans and palm oil are higher than fossil fuel crude oil prices. Unless the price of fossil fuel crude oil increases beyond that, it would not be economically viable to produce biofuels from these feedstock. Jatropha curcas has been touted as the future of biodiesel. The seeds from the Jatropha curcas are crushed and processed using transesterification. The product of the chemical reaction results in bio-oil and glycerin. The objective of this paper is to study the economics of Jatropha curcas as an alternative bio-energy feedstock. Comparisons are done on Jatropha curcas oil, soybean oil, and palm oil. The Jatropha curcas industry is at its infancy, and crude Jatropha curcas oil is either not available in the open market or extremely difficult to find in any significant amount. However, soybean oil and crude palm oil are traded commodities and their prices are dependent on their demand and supply pressures. Given these conditions, the approach adopted here involved the establishment of a vertically integrated company that grows and harvests the Jatropha curcas feedstock and crushes the seeds to obtain the crude oil, and finally processes it to obtain biodiesel and glycerin. The financial analysis provided results that indicate that the Jatropha curcas has the potential to be a successful feedstock. The conclusion after conducting net present value comparisons shows that the price per kilogram of the Jatropha curcas seed would be the determining factor in the success of this bio-fuel feedstock. As more work goes into the genetic selection of Jatropha curcas for high yield varieties, the feedstock’s potential increases and its potential as a solution to the search for the competitive sources of biodiesel becomes more real.

Brayton cycles are open gas turbine cycles extensively used in aviation and industrial applications because of their advantageous volume and weight characteristics. With the bulk of waste exhaust heat and engine emissions associated, there is need to be mindful of environmentally-friendliness of these engine cycles, not compromising good technical performance, and economic viability. This research considers assessment of power plants in helicopters, and aeroderivative industrial gas turbines combined-heat-and-power (ADIGT-CHP) in the petrochemical industry. Thus, it consists of two parts: part A focuses on performance analysis of helicopter gas turbines, while part B entails technoeconomic and environmental risk assessment of ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry. The investigation encompasses comparative assessment of simple cycle (SC) and advanced gas turbine cycle options including the component behaviours and the environmental and economic analysis of the systems. The advanced cycles considered include: recuperated (RC), intercooled (IC), intercooled-recuperated (ICR), and low pressure compressor zero-staged (LPC-ZS), cycles. The helicopter engines are analysed and subsequently converted to small-scale ADIGT engines. Also, modelling combined-heat-and-power (CHP) performances of small-scale (SS), and large-scale (LS) ADIGT engines is implemented. More importantly, a large part of the research is devoted to developing a techno-economic model for assessing, predicting, and comparing viability of simple and advanced cycle ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry in terms of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and simple payback period (SPBP). The techno-economic performances of the ADIGT-CHP cycles are measured against the conventional case of grid power plus on-site boiler. Besides, risk and sensitivity of NPV with respect to uncertain changes in grid electricity cost, gas fuel cost, emission cost, and electricity export tariff, are investigated. Two case studies underlie the development of the techno-economic model. One case study demonstrates the application of the model for large-scale (LS) ADIGT-CHP, and the other for small-scale (SS) ADIGT-CHP, all in the petrochemical industry. By so doing, techno-economic and environmental risk analysis framework (a multi-disciplinary preliminary design assessment tool comprising performance, emissions, economic, and risk modules) is adapted to ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry, which is the aim of this research. The investigation and results led to the conclusions that advanced cycle helicopter and ADIGT engines exhibit higher thermal efficiencies than simple cycle, and that savings exist in operational costs of ADIGT-CHP above the conventional case. Thus, for both SS ADIGT-CHP, and LS ADIGT-CHP cases, all ADIGT-CHP cycles are profitable than the conventional case. For LS ADIGT- CHP category, the IC ADIGT-CHP is the most profitable, whereas for SS ADIGT-CHP category, the RC ADIGT-CHP is the most profitable. The contribution to knowledge of this research is the development of a technoeconomic model for assessing, predicting, and comparing viability of simple and advanced cycle ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry in terms of NPV, SPBP, and IRR over the conventional case of grid power plus on-site boiler. A second contribution is the derivation of simple and advanced cycle small-scale ADIGT and ADIGT-CHP from helicopter engines. Cont/D.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen Featherstone / The thesis assesses the viability of investing in a new grain discharge terminal at the port of Santos, located in the Brazilian southern region, used mostly for wheat but also for malt and malting barley operations. ABC Intl suffered losses of more than USD 1.0 million in 2006 due to demurrage costs at berth 39, used by ABC Intl to export and import grains, sugar and soybean. Congestion tends to increase with the growth of Brazilian soybean and sugar cane production and exports (average 5.0% per year) and 2.0% growth of wheat imports. Demurrage losses are expected to amount to USD 3.0 million by the year 2011 if no investments are made. A brief summary of Brazilian wheat supply and demand for the last five years is presented. Brazil is a net importer between 6.0 and 8.0 million metric tons of wheat per year, to supply the 10.0 million metric ton internal demand. Brazilian wheat imports through the port of Santos average 1.6 million metric tons per year from 2000 to 2006. Sao Paulo is the most populated Brazilian city with more than 18.0 million inhabitants. Its wheat consumption amounts to a third of the total Brazilian consumption and represents around 3.0 million metric tons per year. The thesis analyzes data related to berth 39 activities in the past seven years. A 56-day lineup in 2006 represented more than USD 1.0 million demurrage costs. The thesis forecasts the activity of berth 39 for next five years with and without investment at the new terminal. The new terminal will result in an average of USD 1.8 million savings on demurrage costs over five years. Codesp, Companhia Docas de Sao Paulo, the governmental authority in the port of Santos, is offering a unique opportunity for ABC Intl to invest in a new terminal for grain imports granting the land at no cost. The new terminal would be located at the middle of the port (berth 13/14) close to the railroad and the main avenue in the port of Santos, allowing discharging, storing and loading grain to trucks and wagons. ABC Intl needs to invest USD 5.0 million in the new terminal. It comprises the dismantling and rebuilding of all the grain discharge equipment that will be moved from shed 39 to the new terminal, including two suckers and conveyor belts. The thesis analyzes four different wheat import scenarios for the next five years. In addition, the same scenarios are analyzed for a 10-year period for comparison purposes. The weighted average of the Net Present Value of the four different investment scenarios, considering the probability of each occurring, is a positive USD 78,908 with 13.1% Internal Rate of Return, compared to 9.0 % ABC Intl opportunity cost of capital. It must be considered that the Net Present Value is a conservative figure since it does not take into account the savings on demurrage at berth 39, forecasted to be more than USD 3.0 million in the year 2011 if the company does not invest in the new terminal construction. It is recommended the ABC Intl invest in the new terminal to improve the overall logistics of the port and the quality of the service. This will avoid unnecessary demurrage costs and improving shareholders wealth by investing in a project with positive Net Present Value.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Small scale broiler and layer production constitutes a significant part of the poultry industry in Zambia. However, the contribution of small scale enterprises to broiler production is more pronounced than layers with statistics showing 60 and 30 percent for broilers and layers, respectively. This study was carried out for the purpose of determining the economic profitability of both broiler and layer enterprises and also to evaluate their degree of attractiveness for investment. The thesis used the Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return methods to determine the economic profitability for both broiler and layer enterprises. The data used in the analyses were obtained direct from the market and additional data were extracted from the Cost of Doing Business Manual 2012, a publication of the Zambian Development Agency. Additionally, the study used a capital investment of US $50,000 for each enterprise, 25 percent opportunity cost of capital and an economic life of five years. The data were used in estimating the enterprise budgets for both broiler and layer enterprises from which income statements were generated. The enterprise budget for broiler production estimated revenue from the sale of live broiler chickens at a wholesale price while the layer enterprise budget estimated its revenue from the sale of eggs and culled hens. The sale prices used were US $5 per broiler chicken, US $3.60 per tray of eggs and US $2 per culled hen as obtaining on the market at the time. In addition, production was estimated at 60,000 broilers and 30,000 trays of eggs from 3,000 layers annually. The cost of constructing brooder houses and purchase of production equipment were the major cost components for the two enterprise budget estimates. The estimates indicated that these two cost components amounted to US $27,090 and US $21,095 for boiler and layer enterprises respectively. The other cost component was production cost and it includes the cost of labor, feed, day old chicks, marketing, vaccines, transportation, electricity, debeakers, heaters, stationery, etc. The cost of feed constituted about 65 percent of total production cost for layer enterprises and about 60 percent for broiler enterprises. The total production cost as a percentage of revenue was estimated at 80 percent and 70 percent for broiler and layer enterprises, respectively. The analyses were completed under three alternative scenarios that included optimistic, expected and pessimistic scenarios. The analyses across all scenarios show that both broiler and layer enterprises are economically viable for investment though the broiler enterprise is more economically profitable than the layer enterprise. They both show positive NPVs and IRRs in excess of the 25 percent opportunity cost of capital used in the analysis. The analysis for broiler enterprise showed a NPV of US $178,242 for the optimistic scenario, US $122,742 for the expected scenario and US $30,550 for the pessimistic scenario. Results obtained from layer enterprise analysis showed NPVs of US $72,388, US $49,260 and US $11,186 for the optimistic, expected and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Consistent with the decision rules of the NPV and IRR methods, both enterprises were found to be economically viable for investment. On a comparative basis though, the small scale broiler enterprise was found to be more attractive for investment than the small scale layer enterprise as indicated by the results of the NPVs and IRRs. The lucrative nature of the broiler enterprise and easy of management could be used as possible explanation to the current investment trends seen in the Zambian poultry industry.

Master of Agribusiness / Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / As the single largest asset class on the agriculture sector’s balance sheet, real estate is clearly a significant component of America’s farming community’s well-being and key to production agriculture. Purchasing farmland requires a significant commitment of capital, and one of the chief considerations for producers when contemplating purchasing a property is the return they can expect to receive from their investment over the course of its productive life. The traditional Net Present Value approach to investment valuation is difficult to implement since estimating cash flows over the life of the property is extremely difficult due to uncertainty in yields and commodity prices. By using historical price, yield, and cost data, this thesis develops a net present value spreadsheet model that uses simulation to determine an expected cash flow per acre. This expected cash flow can then be used to determine the gross cash flow from a particular farm over the term of the investment. While not explicitly accounting for non-direct expenses in the model such as returns to management, the techniques discussed provide a solid foundation for a more thorough enterprise analysis and give the producer an estimate of cash flows independent of short-term management decisions.

Orientador: Euclides Braga Malheiros / Resumo: A pecuária de corte brasileira tem sido pressionada no sentido de cada vez obter melhores resultados, o que força os proprietários a utilizar práticas e manejos específicos, os quais possibilitarão a manutenção dentro da atividade. Este estudo teve como objetivos avaliar o uso de inteligência artificial, mais especificamente redes neurais artificiais (RNA), para predizer resultados futuros tanto da produção de pasto quanto animal. Determinar dentre diversos cenários de recria e terminação de bovinos de corte em pastagens tropicais, qual foi o melhor cenário no que diz respeito aos resultados econômicos. Avaliar dentre diferentes doses de adubação nitrogenada, qual foi aquela que retornou melhores índices econômicos. As RNA se mostraram melhores que as regressões normalmente utilizadas para predizer as produções de pastagem (valores médios obtidos pelo uso das RNA foram 0,84; 0,78 e 0,75 para massa de forragem, porcentagens de folha e colmo, versus 0,74; 0,39 e 0,50 obtidos usando regressão linear múltipla) e animal (0,72 [RNA] e 0,67 regressão). No estudo referente aos cenários, os melhores resultados foram obtidos quando utilizado apenas sal mineral (lucratividade de 26,3%; período de “payback” simples igual à 11 ciclos e taxa interna de retorno de 9,30%) na recria dos bovinos de corte e na terminação, quando as variáveis climáticas possibilitaram via manejo de pastagem o uso de maior taxa de lotação (3,18 UA ha-1) na área. Quando avaliados os efeitos das doses de adubação n... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Brazilian beef cattle has been under pression to obtain better results, which drives owners to use specific practices and management, which will allow the maintenance within livestock. This study aimed to evaluate use of artificial intelligence, specifically artificial neural networks (ANN), to predict future results both forage and animal productions. Determine between a lot of rearing and finishing phase scenarios of beef cattle production using tropical pastures, how was the best scenario considering economic results. Evaluate between different nitrogen fertilizers levels, how was there obtained best economic indexes. The ANN was better than regressions normally used to predict forage production (mean values obtained by ANN use were 0.84, 0.78 and 0.75 for forage mass, leaf and stem percentages, versus 0.74, 0.39 and 0.50 obtained using multiple linear regression) and animal (0.72 [ANN] and 0.67 regression). Into study about scenarios, the best results were obtained when used mineral mix just (profitability of 26.3%, simple payback period equal to 11 cycles and internal return ratio of 9.30%) during rearing phase of beef cattle. During finishing phase, the best results occurred when weather variables allowed by pasture handled, the use of higher stocking rate (3.18 AU ha-1) into area. The evaluation of economic results caused by different nitrogen fertilizer levels. Allowed to say that was possible to observe that there was linear increase both on costs, and gross revenue,... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor