Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-02-25Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:19:30Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 garcesnegrete_lpg_dr_ilha.pdf: 1723635 bytes, checksum: ec9b369023c0d16cf9bcbe29a4bc0ada (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / Nessa pesquisa tem-se por objetivo a análise teórica e a implementação computacional de duas propostas de solução ao problema de planejamento da expansão de sistemas de transmissão de energia elétrica considerando diferentes fatores relacionados com a confiabilidade do sistema e a adoção dos novos modelos de mercados elétricos. É importante notar, que no planejamento básico não são levados em conta esses importantes aspectos. Dessa forma, uma primeira aproximação considera um critério de confiabilidade para expandir o sistema, de forma que ele opere adequadamente no horizonte de planejamento satisfazendo um nível de confiabilidade pré-definido. O índice de confiabilidade utilizado para exigir esse nível de confiabilidade é o LOLE, que corresponde ao número médio de horas/dias em um período dado (normalmente um ano) no qual o pico da carga horária/diária do sistema possivelmente exceder´a a capacidade de geração disponível. O problema de planejamento considerando a confiabilidade é, portanto, formulado como um problema de otimização que minimiza o investimento sujeito ao critério de confiabilidade. O índice de confiabilidade para o sistema de transmissão é calculado para cada configuração, subtraindo o índice de confiabilidade do sistema de geração do sistema composto geração-transmissão (bulk power system ). Para calcular o índice no sistema composto geração transmissão, utiliza-se uma curva de duração de carga efetiva para este sistema. Esta curva acumulada de carga é obtida de um processo de convolução de outras duas curvas que representam a função de distribuição de probabilidade (FDP) das saídas aleatórias dos componentes do sistema e a curva de duração de carga, respectivamente. A avaliação de confiabilidade no sistema de geração é feita usando um método que calcula o índice de confiabilidade por meio dos momentos... / This work aims to the theoretical analysis and computational implementation of two proposals for the transmission expansion planning problem considering several factors such as system reliability and new electricity market structures. It is important to observe, that the basic planning does not consider these issues. Therefore, one first approach considers a reliability criterion to expand the system, so that it operates in adequate conditions in the horizon planning while satisfying pre-defined limits in the reliability index. Transmission system reliability criterion regards to LOLE, which refers to the number of hours/days in a specified period of time (normally one year), in which the hourly/daily peak load possibly will exceed the available generation capacity. So, the planning problem considering reliability is formulated as an optimization problem that minimizes the investment subject to probabilistic reliability criterion. Reliability index for the transmission system is calculated for each configuration by subtraction of generation and bulk power reliability indexes. A composite power system effective load curve is used for reliability analysis of the bulk power system. This accumulate curve is obtained convolving two curves, one of them corresponding to a probability distribution function of the random outages of the system components, and the other one corresponding to the load duration curve. Reliability assessment in the generation system is done using a method that calculates the reliability index through the statistics moments of the frequency distribution of equivalents loads. This curve is obtained by convolving the generation units which are dispached in merit order. The proposed model is solved using the specialized genetic algorithm of Chu-Beasley (AGCB). Detailed results on two test systems are analyzed and discussed. A second approach to the transmission expansion... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

The reliability analysis of plates and shells with respect to plastic collapse or to inadaptation is formulated on the basis of limit and shakedown theorems. The loading, the material strength and the shell thickness are considered as random variables. Based on a direct definition of the limit state function, the nonlinear problems may be efficiently solved by using the First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM/SORM). The sensitivity analyses in FORM/SORM can be based on the sensitivities of the deterministic shakedown problem. The problem of reliability of structural systems is also handled by the application of a special barrier technique which permits to find all the design points corresponding to all the failure modes. The direct plasticity approach reduces considerably the necessary knowledge of uncertain input data, computing costs and the numerical error. / Die Zuverlässigkeitsanalyse von Platten und Schalen in Bezug auf plastischen Kollaps oder Nicht-Anpassung wird mit den Traglast- und Einspielsätzen formuliert. Die Lasten, die Werkstofffestigkeit und die Schalendicke werden als Zufallsvariablen betrachtet. Auf der Grundlage einer direkten Definition der Grenzzustandsfunktion kann die Berechnung der Versagenswahrscheinlichkeit effektiv mit den Zuverlässigkeitsmethoden erster und zweiter Ordnung (FROM/SORM) gelöst werden. Die Sensitivitätsanalysen in FORM/SORM lassen sich auf der Basis der Sensitivitäten des deterministischen Einspielproblems berechnen. Die Schwierigkeiten bei der Ermittlung der Zuverlässigkeit von strukturellen Systemen werden durch Anwendung einer speziellen Barrieremethode behoben, die es erlaubt, alle Auslegungspunkte zu allen Versagensmoden zu finden. Die Anwendung direkter Plastizitätsmethoden führt zu einer beträchtlichen Verringerung der notwendigen Kenntnis der unsicheren Eingangsdaten, des Berechnungsaufwandes und der numerischen Fehler.

Ce mémoire rassemble des éléments d'optimisation, d'apprentissage profond et de contrôle optimal afin de répondre aux problématiques d'apprentissage et de planification dans le contexte des systèmes dynamiques en temps continu. Deux approches générales sont explorées. D'abord, une approche basée sur la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance est présentée. Ici, les trajectoires ``d'entrainement'' sont échantillonnées depuis la dynamique réelle, et à partir de celles-ci un modèle de prédiction des états observés est appris. Une fois que l'apprentissage est terminé, le modèle est utilisé pour la planification, en utilisant la dynamique de l'environnement et une fonction de coût pour construire un programme non linéaire, qui est par la suite résolu pour trouver une séquence de contrôle optimal. Ensuite, une approche de bout en bout est proposée, dans laquelle la tâche d'apprentissage de modèle dynamique et celle de planification se déroulent simultanément. Ceci est illustré dans le cadre d'un problème d'apprentissage par imitation, où le modèle est mis à jour en rétropropageant le signal de perte à travers l'algorithme de planification. Grâce au fait que l'entrainement est effectué de bout en bout, cette technique pourrait constituer un sous-module de réseau de neurones de plus grande taille, et pourrait être utilisée pour fournir un biais inductif en faveur des comportements optimaux dans le contexte de systèmes dynamiques en temps continu. Ces méthodes sont toutes les deux conçues pour fonctionner avec des modèles d'équations différentielles ordinaires paramétriques et neuronaux. Également, inspiré par des applications réelles pertinentes, un large recueil de systèmes dynamiques et d'optimiseurs de trajectoire, nommé Myriad, est implémenté; les algorithmes sont testés et comparés sur une variété de domaines de la suite Myriad. / This thesis brings together elements of optimization, deep learning and optimal control to study the challenge of learning and planning in continuous-time dynamical systems. Two general approaches are explored. First, a maximum likelihood approach is presented, in which training trajectories are sampled from the true dynamics, and a model is learned to accurately predict the state observations. After training is completed, the learned model is then used for planning, by using the dynamics and cost function to construct a nonlinear program, which can be solved to find a sequence of optimal controls. Second, a fully end-to-end approach is proposed, in which the tasks of model learning and planning are performed simultaneously. This is demonstrated in an imitation learning setting, in which the model is updated by backpropagating the loss signal through the planning algorithm itself. Importantly, because it can be trained in an end-to-end fashion, this technique can be included as a sub-module of a larger neural network, and used to provide an inductive bias towards behaving optimally in a continuous-time dynamical system. Both the maximum likelihood and end-to-end methods are designed to work with parametric and neural ordinary differential equation models. Inspired by relevant real-world applications, a large repository of dynamical systems and trajectory optimizers, named Myriad, is also implemented. The algorithms are tested and compared on a variety of domains within the Myriad suite.

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The objective of this study was to design a launch vehicle capable of deploying a nanosatellite into a Sun-synchronous orbit at 500 km orbital altitude from the JAS 39E/F Gripen fighter aircraft. This was achieved by first performing theoretical calculations for the required nozzles and solid propellant grain configurations for the first two solid stages, followed by the necessary liquid propellant configuration for the third stage. Lastly, two methods were investigated in solving the trajectory ascent problem for the launch vehicle design. First, by stating the trajectory problem as an initial value problem while guessing a Sigmoidal steering law. Secondly, by stating the trajectory problem as a boundary value problem. The latter was solved by transcribing the trajectory problem into a nonlinear program where a parametric steering law was derived using a Sequential quadratic programming algorithm.Ultimately, resulting in a launch vehicle design with a gross lift-off mass of 1,289 kg, capable of launching an 8.4 kg payload into the targeted orbit, with suggested modifications to increase the possible payload mass to 12.9 kg. / Målet med den här studien var att designa en luftlanserad trestegsraket kapabel till att transportera en nanosatellit upp till en solsynkron omloppsbana på 500 km altitud från ett JAS 39E/F Gripen jaktflygplan. Det gjordes genom att först beräkna de nödvändiga dysorna och krutladdningsformerna för de två första stegen tillsammans med en flytande bränsledesign för det tredje steget. Två metoder undersöktes för bananalysen. Först genom att anta en Sigmoidal styrningsfunktion för pitchen, sedan genom att transkribera problemet till ett icke-linjärt program där en parametrisk styrlag togs fram genom att använda en Sequential quadratic programming algoritm. Slutligen presenterades en raketdesign med en total vikt på 1 289 kg, kapabel till att skjuta upp en nyttolast på 8,4 kg till den önskade omloppsbanan tillsammans med förslag som kan öka den möjliga nyttolasten till 12,9 kg.