Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / The recent decreasing trend of sea ice cover in the Arctic region and its projected future reduction has direct implications for the global thermohaline circulation and the U.S. Navy. This thesis provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the Fram Strait into the deep-water formation region of the Labrador Sea, using model data from 1979 to 2002. The results of this thesis directly aid the Navy in preparing personnel, ships, and weapons systems to operate efficiently in a possible ice-free Arctic. A coupled ice-ocean model of the pan-Arctic region at a 1/12-degree and 45-level grid resolution was used to produce data over a 24-year time period. The 24-year averaged annual velocity, temperature, and salinity profiles were compared for each of the analyzed stations. Additionally, 24-year mean monthly volume and freshwater flux time series plots and annual cycle plots were also produced to analyze the region's interannual variability from 1979 to 2002. The results show that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is the major contributor of freshwater to the Labrador Sea. The CAA is a direct pathway for increased freshwater export from the Arctic into the sub-arctic seas where North Atlantic Deep Water(NADW)forms. The increased freshwater flux through the CAA, found in this study, supports the earlier reports on the freshening of NADW and a possibility of reduction in the meridional overturning rate in the North Atlantic. An increase in freshwater export from the Arctic is a good indicator of increasing sea ice reduction. The predicted opening of the Arctic to commercial and military vessels poses a direct threat to U.S. economical and strategic interests in the Arctic region. This thesis supports the U.S. Navy's ability to operate in a possibly ice-free Arctic. / Ensign, United States Navy

The intrinsic flexibility of unstructured meshes is compelling for numerical ocean modeling. Complex topographic features, such as coastlines, islands and narrow straits, can faithfully be represented by locally increasing the mesh resolution and because there is no constraint on the mesh topology. In that respect, the finite element method is particularly promising. Not only does it allow for naturally handling unstructured meshes but it also offers additional flexibility in the choice of interpolation and is sustained by a rich and rigorous mathematical framework. This doctoral research was carried out under the auspices of the SLIM (Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice-ocean Model) project, the objective of which is to develop an ocean general circulation model using the finite element method. This PhD dissertation deals with one-, two- and three-dimensional finite element ocean modeling. We chiefly focus on the accurate representation of some selected oceanic processes and we devote much effort toward using a consistent finite element method to solve the underlying equations. We first concentrate on the finite element solution to a one-dimensional benchmark for the propagation of Poincaré waves with particular emphasis on the discontinuous Galerkin method and a physical justification for computing the numerical fluxes. We then compare three finite element formulations (vorticity - streamfunction, velocity - pressure and free-surface) for the solution to geophysical fluid flow instabilities problems. The prominent -- and remaining -- part of this work deals with three-dimensional ocean modeling on moving meshes. It covers the selection of the right elements for the vertical velocity and tracers through achieving strict tracer conservation and local consistency between the elevation, continuity and tracer equations. The ensuing three-dimensional model is successfully validated against a realistic tidal flow around a shallow-water island. New physical insights are proposed as to the physical processes encountered in such flows.

Flow disruption resulting from interactions between currents and abrupt topography can have important consequences for biological processes in the ocean. A highresolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to study topographically influenced flow at the Flower Garden Banks, two small but thriving coral reef ecosystems in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Flow past the modeled banks is characterized by vortex shedding, turbulent wake formation and strong return velocities in the near-wake regions. The speed of the oncoming current, strength of water-column stratification, and level of topographic detail used in the model each serve to modulate these basic flow characteristics. Larval retention and dispersal processes at the Flower Garden Banks, and specifically the dependence of these processes on the nature of flow disruption, are explored by coupling a Lagrangian particle-tracking algorithm to the hydrodynamic model. Passive particles released from the tops of the modeled banks as mimics of coral larvae can remain trapped in the wake regions very close to the banks on time scales of hours to days, depending primarily on the speed of the free-stream current. Most particles are swept quickly downstream, however, where their trajectories are most strongly influenced by the topography of the continental shelf. Modeled dispersal patterns suggest that there is an ample supply of larvae from the Flower Garden Banks to nearby oil and gas platforms, which can provide suitable benthic habitat for corals. The flow disturbances generated by the modeled banks result in the mixing of nutrients from deeper water into shallower, nutrient-depleted layers in the wakes of the banks. The ability of the planktonic system to respond to such an injection of nutrients is tested by embedding a simple nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton ecosystem model into the hydrodynamic model. Plankton biomass in the flow-disturbed wakes is shown to increase in response to the additional nutrients. This study shows how flow-topography interactions at the Flower Garden Banks can exert critical control over local larval transport processes and plankton dynamics. More generally, it demonstrates the usefulness and feasibility of using numerical models as tools to uncover important mechanisms of physical-biological interaction in the ocean.

In a shallow shelf region, turbulent motion can have a major effect on coastal processes including ecosystem functioning, surface gas exchange and sediment resuspension. Many factors contribute to such turbulence; wind and wave forcing, buoyancy induced by surface heat fluxes and tidal forcing all play a key role in generating vertical mixing in this shallow region. Alongside these independent sources of turbulence, combinations thereof can lead to full-depth turbulent structures acting secondary to the mean flow and leading to enhanced vertical mixing throughout the entire water column. Field and laboratory experiments can often prove to be costly and time consuming, and reproducing or maintaining the complex flow dynamics of real world ocean flows is a constant challenge to these methods of research. As such, those interested in developing realistic and useful models of the marine environment to further understand its behavior often rely on 3-dimensional mathematical modeling and simulation. In this dissertation, simulations will be presented of turbulent flow and associated vertical mixing in a domain representative of the shallow coastal ocean, sufficiently far off shore that the land-ocean boundary does not significantly affect the flow behavior. This will be done using a large-eddy simulation (LES) method; solving the governing Navier-Stokes equations over a finite grid designed to capture the large, energy containing turbulent scales, and modeling the smaller, sub-grid scales. The simulations to be presented feature combinations of coastal forcing mechanisms which are either presently unexplored or the analysis of which has been hindered by the complexity of field measurements and the challenge of isolating independent causes of turbulent motion. This will include surface heat fluxes, tidal forcing and Langmuir (or wave) forcing, acting both in isolation and in conjunction with each other, in order to bridge existing gaps in knowledge and provide a more complete understanding of the generation of full-depth turbulent structures in this shallow coastal water column.

Located at the northern edge of the Northern Gulf of Alaska (NGOA), Prince William Sound(PWS) is a small, two-strait semi-enclosed sea. The general ocean circulation pattern inside PWS is significantly affected by external forcings, for instance, the large-scale circulation in NGOA, atmospheric pressure and surface winds, surface heating/cooling, runoff, and tides. Motivated by multi-year experience with a well-validated, quasi-operational ocean circulation nowcast/forecast system for PWS (viz., Extended PWS Nowcast/Forecast System (EPWS/NFS)), the present study addresses some aspects of the PWS response to various external forcings, via numerical simulations. Based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), four numerical implementations have been examined, viz., PWS-POM, Extended PWS-POM (EPWS-POM), Idealized PWS-POM (IPWS-POM), and a 2-D tidal model. These implementations are used to simulate physical processes with various spatial and temporal scales in PWS. A series of numerical simulations are conducted, driven by various external forcings ranging from large scale and mesoscale circulation in NGOA represented by the Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), to atmospheric pressure observed by National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys and mesoscale winds predicted by Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and to tides simulated by the 2-D tidal model. These simulations, along with analysis from a Helmholtz resonance model, demonstrate and help interpret some phenomena in PWS; for instance, barotropic Helmholtz resonance in coastal sea levels, and volume transports through the two PWS straits, and a dominant cyclonic gyre in the Central Sound in August and September. The simulation results are used to study a wide range of oceanic phenomena in PWS; e.g., two-layer/three-layer baroclinic transports through the straits, a "transition band" in the coherence pattern between volume transports through the two straits, mesoscale circulation in the Central Sound, the deep water circulation, and the annual tidal energy budget.

In the ocean, light from the surface dissipates quickly leaving sound the only way to see at a distance. Different sediment types on the ocean floor and water properties like salinity, temperature, and ocean depth all change how sound travels across long distances. Hard sediment types, such as sand and bedrock, are highly reflective while softer sediment types, such as mud, are more absorptive and change the received sound upon arrival. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the ocean floor is not mapped and the expenses involved in creating such a map are far too great. Traditional signal processing methods in underwater acoustics attempt to localize sources and estimate seabed properties, but require a priori decisions and fall victim to ill conditioning and non-linear relationships between the unknowns and are computationally expensive. To address these problems, a deep learning method is proposed to distinguish between seabed types while also predicting source parameters such as source-receiver range from simulated training data. In this thesis, several studies are presented that explore the effectiveness of convolutional neural networks to make predictions from two types of sounds that propagated through the ocean: impulsive explosions and ship noise. These studies show that time-series signals and spectrograms contain sufficient information for deep learning, and additional preprocessing for feature extraction is not necessary. Training data considerations, such as randomness in the network weights and inclusion of representative variability are also explored. In all, this study shows that deep learning is a useful tool in underwater acoustics and has significant potential for seabed parameter estimation.

L'upwelling du Sud Vietnam (SVU) joue un rôle clef dans la dynamique océanique et la productivité biologique en Mer de Chine du Sud. Cette thèse vise à quantifier la variabilité interannuelle du SVU et identifier les facteurs et mécanismes en jeu. Pour cela, un jeu de simulations numériques pluri-annuelles à haute résolution a été utilisé. Le réalisme du modèle a été évalué et optimisé par comparaison aux observations in-situ et satellites. Les résultats montrent que la grande variabilité du SVU est fortement pilotée par le rotationnel du vent estival, et liée à l'oscillation ENSO via son impact sur le vent. Cependant, cette influence du vent est significativement modulée par la variabilité intrinsèque océanique liée aux interactions entre la vorticité associée aux tourbillons océaniques et le vent, et dans une moindre mesure par la circulation océanique de grande échelle et les fleuves. Ces conclusions sont robustes aux choix effectués pour corriger la dérive de surface du modèle. / The summer South Vietnam Upwelling (SVU) is a major component of the South China Sea circulation that also influences the ecosystems. The objectives of this thesis are first to quantitatively assess the interannual variability of the SVU in terms of intensity and spatial extent, second to quantify the respective contributions from different factors (atmospheric, river and oceanic forcings; ocean intrinsic variability OIV; El-Niño Southern Oscillation ENSO) to the SVU interannual variability, and third to identify and examine the underlying physical mechanisms. To fulfill these goals we use a set of sensitivity eddy-resolving simulations of the SCS circulation performed with the ROMS_AGRIF ocean regional model at 1/12° resolution for the period 1991-2004. The ability of the model to realistically represent the water masses and dynamics of the circulation in the SCS and SVU regions was first evaluated by comparison with available satellite and in-situ observations. We then defined a group of sea-surface-temperature upwelling indices to quantify in detail the interannual variability of the SVU in terms of intensity, spatial distribution and duration. Our results reveal that strong SVU years are offshore-dominant with upwelling centers located in the area within 11-12oN and 110-112oE, whereas weak SVU years are coastal-dominant with upwelling centers located near the coast and over a larger latitude range (10-14oN). The first factor that triggers the strength and extent of the SVU is the summer wind curl associated with the summer monsoon. However, its effect is modulated by several factors including first the OIV, whose contribution reaches 50% of the total SVU variability, but also the river discharge and the remote ocean circulation. The coastal upwelling variability is strongly related to the variability of the eastward jet that develops from the coast. The offshore upwelling variability is impacted by the spatio-temporal interactions of the ocean cyclonic eddies with the wind stress curl, which are responsible for the impact of the OIV. The ocean and river forcing also modulate the SVU variability due to their contribution to the eddy field variability. ENSO has a strong influence on the SVU, mainly due to its direct influence on the summer wind. Those results regarding the interannual variability of the SVU are robust to the choice of the surface bias correction method used in the model. We finally present in Appendix-A2 preliminary results about the impacts of tides.

Velocity measurements from drifter GPS records are assimilated and used in an ensemble-based inversion technique to extract the river bathymetry. The method is tested on a deep meandering reach and a shallow braided reach of the Kootenai River in Idaho, USA. The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used to model numerous statistically varied bathymetries to create an ensemble of hydrodynamic states. These states, the drifter observations, and the uncertainty of each are combined to form a cost function which is minimized to produce an estimated velocity ���eld. State augmentation is then used to relate the velocity ���eld to bathymetry. Our goals are to assess whether ROMS can accurately reproduce the Kootenai River ���ow to an extent that depth inversion is feasible, investigate if drifter paths are sensitive enough to bottom topography to make depth inversion possible, and to establish practical limitations of the present methodology. At both test sites, the depth inversion method produced an estimate of bathymetry that was more accurate and more skillful than the prior estimate. / Graduation date: 2013

La température de surface de l'océan (SST) est depuis l'avènement des satellites, l'une des variables océaniques la mieux observée. Les modèles réalistes de circulation générale océanique ne la prennent pourtant pas en compte explicitement dans leur fonction de forçage. Dans cette dernière, seules interviennent les variables atmosphériques à proximité de la surface (température, humidité, vitesse du vent, radiations descendantes et précipitations) connues pour être entachées d'incertitudes importantes dès lors qu'on considère l'objectif d'étudier la variabilité à long terme de l'océan et son rôle climatique. La SST est alors classiquement utilisée en assimilation de données pour contraindre l'état du modèle vers une solution en accord avec les observations mais sans corriger la fonction de forçage. Cette approche présente cependant les inconvénients de l'incohérence existant potentiellement entre la solution « forcée » et « assimilée ». On se propose dans cette thèse de développer dans un contexte réaliste une méthode d'assimilation de données de SST observée pour corriger les paramètres de forçage atmosphérique sans correction de l'état océanique. Le jeu de forçage faisant l'objet de ces corrections est composé des variables atmosphériques issues de la réanalyse ERAinterim entre 1989 et 2007. On utilise pour l'estimation de paramètres une méthode séquentielle basée sur le filtre de Kalman, où le vecteur d'état est augmenté des variables de forçage dont la distribution de probabilité a priori est évaluée via des expériences d'ensemble. On évalue ainsi des corrections de forçage mensuelles applicables dans un modèle libre pour la période 1989-2007 en assimilant la SST issue de la base de données de Hurrel (Hurrel, 2008), ainsi qu'une climatologie de salinité de surface (Levitus, 1994). Cette étude démontre la faisabilité d'une telle démarche dans un contexte réaliste, ainsi que l'amélioration de la représentation des flux océan-atmosphère par l'exploitation d'observations de la surface de l'océan. / Sea surface temperature (SST) is more accurately observed from space than near-surface atmospheric variables and air-sea fluxes. But ocean general circulation models for operational forecasting or simulations of the recent ocean variability use, as surface boundary conditions, bulk formulae which do not directly involve the observed SST. In brief, models do not use explicitly in their forcing one of the best observed ocean surface variable, except when assimilated to correct the model state. This classical approach presents however some inconsistency between the “assimilated” solution of the model and the “forced” one. The objective of this research is to develop in a realistic context a new assimilation scheme based on statistical methods that will use SST satellite observations to constrain (within observation-based air-sea flux uncertainties) the surface forcing function (surface atmospheric input variables) of ocean circulation simulations. The idea is to estimate a set of corrections for the atmospheric input data from ERAinterim reanalysis that cover the period from 1989 to 2007. We use a sequential method based on the SEEK filter, with an ensemble experiment to evaluate parameters uncertainties. The control vector is extended to correct forcing parameters (air temperature, air humidity, downward longwave and shortwave radiations, precipitation, wind velocity). Over experiments of one month duration, we assimilate observed monthly SST products (Hurrel, 2008) and SSS seasonal climatology (Levitus, 1994) data, to obtain monthly parameters corrections that we can use in a free run model This study shows that we can thus produce in a realistic case, on a global scale, and over a large time period, an optimal flux correction set that improves the forcing function of an ocean model using sea surface observations.

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