The power industry has undergone significant restructuring throughout the world since the 1990s. In particular, its traditional, vertically monopolistic structures have been reformed into competitive markets in pursuit of increased efficiency in electricity production and utilization. However, along with market deregulation, power systems presently face severe challenges. One is power system stability, a problem that has attracted widespread concern because of severe blackouts experienced in the USA, the UK, Italy, and other countries. Another is that electricity market operation warrants more effective planning, management, and direction techniques due to the ever expanding large-scale interconnection of power grids. Moreover, many exterior constraints, such as environmental protection influences and associated government regulations, now need to be taken into consideration. All these have made existing challenges even more complex. One consequence is that more advanced power system data analysis methods are required in the deregulated, market-oriented environment. At the same time, the computational power of modern computers and the application of databases have facilitated the effective employment of new data analysis techniques. In this thesis, the reported research is directed at developing computational intelligence based techniques to solve several power system problems that emerge in deregulated electricity markets. Four major contributions are included in the thesis: a newly proposed quantum-inspired particle swarm optimization and self-adaptive learning scheme for radial basis function neural networks; online wavelet denoising techniques; electricity regional reference price forecasting methods in the electricity market; and power system security assessment approaches for deregulated markets, including fault analysis, voltage profile prediction under contingencies, and machine learning based load shedding scheme for voltage stability enhancement. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) inspired by biological evolution mechanisms have had great success in power system stability analysis and operation planning. Here, a new quantum-inspired particle swarm optimization (QPSO) is proposed. Its inspiration stems from quantum computation theory, whose mechanism is totally different from those of original EAs. The benchmark data sets and economic load dispatch research results show that the QPSO improves on other versions of evolutionary algorithms in terms of both speed and accuracy. Compared to the original PSO, it greatly enhances the searching ability and efficiently manages system constraints. Then, fuzzy C-means (FCM) and QPSO are applied to train radial basis function (RBF) neural networks with the capacity to auto-configure the network structures and obtain the model parameters. The benchmark data sets test results suggest that the proposed training algorithms ensure good performance on data clustering, also improve training and generalization capabilities of RBF neural networks. Wavelet analysis has been widely used in signal estimation, classification, and compression. Denoising with traditional wavelet transforms always exhibits visual artefacts because of translation-variant. Furthermore, in most cases, wavelet denoising of real-time signals is actualized via offline processing which limits the efficacy of such real-time applications. In the present context, an online wavelet denoising method using a moving window technique is proposed. Problems that may occur in real-time wavelet denoising, such as border distortion and pseudo-Gibbs phenomena, are effectively solved by using window extension and window circle spinning methods. This provides an effective data pre-processing technique for the online application of other data analysis approaches. In a competitive electricity market, price forecasting is one of the essential functions required of a generation company and the system operator. It provides critical information for building up effective risk management plans by market participants, especially those companies that generate and retail electrical power. Here, an RBF neural network is adopted as a predictor of the electricity market regional reference price in the Australian national electricity market (NEM). Furthermore, the wavelet denoising technique is adopted to pre-process the historical price data. The promising network prediction performance with respect to price data demonstrates the efficiency of the proposed method, with real-time wavelet denoising making feasible the online application of the proposed price prediction method. Along with market deregulation, power system security assessment has attracted great concern from both academic and industry analysts, especially after several devastating blackouts in the USA, the UK, and Russia. This thesis goes on to propose an efficient composite method for cascading failure prevention comprising three major stages. Firstly, a hybrid method based on principal component analysis (PCA) and specific statistic measures is used to detect system faults. Secondly, the RBF neural network is then used for power network bus voltage profile prediction. Tests are carried out by means of the “N-1” and “N-1-1” methods applied in the New England power system through PSS/E dynamic simulations. Results show that system faults can be reliably detected and voltage profiles can be correctly predicted. In contrast to traditional methods involving phase calculation, this technique uses raw data from time domains and is computationally inexpensive in terms of both memory and speed for practical applications. This establishes a connection between power system fault analysis and cascading analysis. Finally, a multi-stage model predictive control (MPC) based load shedding scheme for ensuring power system voltage stability is proposed. It has been demonstrated that optimal action in the process of load shedding for voltage stability during emergencies can be achieved as a consequence. Based on above discussions, a framework for analysing power system voltage stability and ensuring its enhancement is proposed, with such a framework able to be used as an effective means of cascading failure analysis. In summary, the research reported in this thesis provides a composite framework for power system data analysis in a market environment. It covers advanced techniques of computational intelligence and machine learning, also proposes effective solutions for both the market operation and the system stability related problems facing today’s power industry.

This research addresses fleet-sizing for reusable containers that are used for protection, transportation, and storage of parts between a component plant and assembly plant. These reusable containers are often expensive and occupy a large amount of storage space when empty and full. Having a large container fleet comes with higher acquisition, maintenance, and storage costs, but decreases production down time caused by the lack of containers needed for storage. A quantitative model of these trade-offs will permit decision makers to maintain desired production levels at minimum cost. In this dissertation, the relationship between container fleet size and production down time caused by container shortages is researched. Utilizing both theoretical and empirical approaches, two analytical models that include relevant operational parameters and stochastic components are developed. The first is a container fleet sizing model, and the second model estimates production stoppages as a function of container fleet size. The formulas are shown to be accurate and provide decision makers with the tools to better plan and manage specific applications. The formulas also provide general insight into the factors that affect container fleet size and production stoppage due to container shortages. / Graduation date: 2012

There is a growing interest in investigating the high order contingency events that may result in large blackouts, which have been a great concern for power grid secure operation. The actual number of high order contingency is too huge for operators and planner to apply a brute-force enumerative analysis. This thesis presents a heuristic searching method based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and tabu search to select severe high order contingencies. The original PSO algorithm gives an intelligent strategy to search the feasible solution space, but tends to find the best solution only. The proposed method combines the original PSO with tabu search such that a number of top candidates will be identified. This fits the need of high order contingency screening, which can be eventually the input to many other more complicate security analyses. Reordering of branches of test system based on severity of N-1 contingencies is applied as a pre-processing to increase the convergence properties and efficiency of the algorithm. With this reordering approach, many critical high order contingencies are located in a small area in the whole searching space. Therefore, the proposed algorithm tends to concentrate in searching this area such that the number of critical branch combinations searched will increase. Therefore, the speedup ratio is found to increase significantly. The proposed algorithm is tested for N-2 and N-3 contingencies using two test systems modified from the IEEE 118-bus and 30-bus systems. Variation of inertia weight, learning factors, and number of particles is tested and the range of values more suitable for this specific algorithm is suggested. Although illustrated and tested with N-2 and N-3 contingency analysis, the proposed algorithm can be extended to even higher order contingencies but visualization will be difficult because of the increase in the problem dimensions corresponding to the order of contingencies.

In pursuance of decreasing costs, both the client and the contractor would strive to speed up the construction project. However, accelerating the project schedule will impose additional cost and might be profitable up to a certain limit. Paramount for construction management, analyses of this trade-off between duration and cost is hailed as the time-cost trade-off (TCT) optimization. Inadequacies of existing commercial software packages for such analyses tied with eminence of discretization, motivated development of different paradigms of particle swarm optimizers (PSO) for three extensions of discrete TCT problems (DTCTPs). A sole-PSO algorithm for concomitant minimization of time and cost is proposed which involves minimal adjustments to shift focus to the completion deadline problem. A hybrid model is also developed to unravel the time-cost curve extension of DCTCPs. Engaging novel principles for evaluation of cost-slopes, and pbest/gbest positions, the hybrid SAM-PSO model combines complementary strengths of overhauled versions of the Siemens Approximation Method (SAM) and the PSO algorithm. Effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithms are validated employing instances derived from the literature. Throughout computational experiments, mixed integer programming technique is implemented to introduce the optimal non-dominated fronts of two specific benchmark problems for the very first time in the literature. Another chief contribution of this thesis can be depicted as potency of SAM-PSO model in locating the entire Pareto fronts of the practiced instances, within acceptable time-frames with reasonable deviations from the optima. Possible further improvements and applications of SAM-PSO model are suggested in the conclusion.

The world faces the unprecedented challenge of the need change to a new energy era. The introduction of distributed renewable energy and storage together with transportation electrification and deployment of electric and hybrid vehicles, allows traditional consumers to not only consume, but also to produce, or store energy. The active participation of these so called "prosumers", and their interactions may have a significant impact on the operations of the emerging smart grid. However, how these capabilities should be integrated with the overall system operation is unclear. Intelligent energy management systems give users the insight they need to make informed decisions about energy consumption. Properly implemented, intelligent energy management systems can help cut energy use, spending, and emissions. This thesis aims to develop a consumer point of view, user-friendly, intelligent energy management system that enables vehicle drivers to plan their trips, manage their battery pack and under specific circumstances, inject electricity from their plug-in vehicles to power the grid, contributing to frequency regulation.

We propose a novel approach for building a type-2 neuro-fuzzy system from a given set of input-output training data. For an input pattern, a corresponding crisp output of the system is obtained by combining the inferred results of all the rules into a type-2 fuzzy set which is then defuzzified by applying a type reduction algorithm. Karnik and Mendel proposed an algorithm, called KM algorithm, to compute the centroid of an interval type-2 fuzzy set efficiently. Based on this algorithm, Liu developed a centroid type-reduction strategy to do type reduction for type-2 fuzzy sets. A type-2 fuzzy set is decomposed into a collection of interval type-2 fuzzy sets by £\-cuts. Then the KM algorithm is called for each interval type-2 fuzzy set iteratively. However, the initialization of the switch point in each application of the KM algorithm is not a good one. In this thesis, we present an improvement to Liu's algorithm. We employ the result previously obtained to construct the starting values in the current application of the KM algorithm. Convergence in each iteration except the first one can then speed up and type reduction for type-2 fuzzy sets can be done faster. The efficiency of the improved algorithm is analyzed mathematically and demonstrated by experimental results. Constructing a type-2 neuro-fuzzy system involves two major phases, structure identification and parameter identification. We propose a method which incorporates self-constructing fuzzy clustering algorithm and a SVD-based least squares estimator for structure identification of type-2 neuro-fuzzy modeling. The self-constructing fuzzy clustering method is used to partition the training data set into clusters through input-similarity and output-similarity tests. The membership function associated with each cluster is defined with the mean and deviation of the data points included in the cluster. Then applying SVD-based least squares estimator, a type-2 fuzzy TSK IF-THEN rule is derived from each cluster to form a fuzzy rule base. After that a fuzzy neural network is constructed. In the parameter identification phase, the parameters associated with the rules are then refined through learning. We propose a hybrid learning algorithm which incorporates particle swarm optimization and a SVD-based least squares estimator to refine the antecedent parameters and the consequent parameters, respectively. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in constructing type-2 neuro-fuzzy systems by showing the results for two nonlinear functions and two real-world benchmark datasets. Besides, we use the proposed approach to construct a type-2 neuro-fuzzy system to forecast the daily Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). Experimental results show that our forecasting system performs better than other methods.

The wind turbine generation system (WTGS) exhibits a nonlinear characteristic and its maximum power point varies with changing atmospheric conditions. In order to operate the WTGS at maximum power output under various wind speeds and to avoid using speed encoder in practical applications, it is necessary to improve the controller system to operate the maximum power points in the WTGS. There are three factors to influence wind generator, the wind speed, power coefficient and the radius of blade. The power coefficient depends on the blade pitch angle and tip speed ratio (TSR). The objective of the dissertation is to develop an intelligent controlled wind energy conversion system (WECS) using AC/DC and DC/AC power converters for grid-connected power application. To achieve a fast and stable response for the real power control, an intelligent controller was proposed, which consists of a fuzzy neural network (FNN), a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN), a wilcoxcon radial basis function network (WRBFN) and a improved Elman neural network (IENN) for MPPT. Furthermore, the parameter of the developed FNN, RFNN, WRBFN and IENN are trained on-line using back-propagation learning algorithm. However, the learning rates in the FNN, RFNN, WRBFN, and IENN are usually selected by trial and error method, which is time-consuming. Therefore, modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) method is adopted to adjust the learning rates to improve the learning capability of the developed RFNN, WRBFN and IENN. Moreover, presents the estimation of the rotor speed is based on the sliding mode and model reference adaptive system (MRAS) speed observer theory. Furthermore, a sensorless vector-control strategy for an induction generator (IG) operating in a grid-connected variable speed wind energy conversion system can be achieved. On the other hand, a WRBFN based with hill-climb searching (HCS) maximum-power-point-tracking (MPPT) strategy is proposed for permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) with a variable speed wind turbine. Finally, many simulation results are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed intelligent control wind generation systems.

In this study, weight optimization of two dimensional steel frames is carried out in which the flexibility of beam-to-column connections and the soil-structure interaction are considered. In the analysis and design of steel frames, beam-tocolumn connections are assumed to be either fully rigid or perfectly pinned. However, the real behavior of beam-to-column connections is actually between these extremes. Namely, even the simple connections used in practice possess some stiffness falling between these two cases mentioned above. Moreover, it is found that there exists a nonlinear relationship between the moment and beam-to-column rotation when a moment is applied to a flexible connection. These partially restrained connections influence the drift (P- effect) of whole structure as well as the moment distribution in beams and columns. Use of a direct nonlinear inelastic analysis is one way to account for all these effects in frame design. To be able to implement such analysis, beam-to-column connections should be assumed and modeled as semi-rigid connections. In the present study, beam-to-column connections are modeled as &ldquo / end plate without column stiffeners&rdquo / and &ldquo / top and seat angle with web angles&rdquo / . Soil-structure interaction is also included in the analysis. Frames are assumed to be resting on nonlinear soil, which is represented by a set of axial elements. Particle swarm optimization method is used to develop the optimum design algorithm. The Particle Swarm method is a numerical optimization technique that simulates the social behavior of birds, fishes and bugs. In nature fish school, birds flock and bugs swarm not only for reproduction but for other reasons such as finding food and escaping predators. Similar to birds seek to find food, the optimum design process seeks to find the optimum solution. In the particle swarm optimization each particle in the swarm represents a candidate solution of the optimum design problem. The design algorithm presented selects sections for the members of steel frame from the complete list of sections given in LRFD- AISC (Load and Resistance Factor Design, American Institute of Steel Construction). Besides, the design constraints are implemented from the specifications of the same code which covers serviceability and strength limitations. The optimum design algorithm developed is used to design number of rigid and semi-rigid steel frames.

Power industry restructuring has created many opportunities for customers to reduce their electricity bills. In order to facilitate the retail choice in a competitive power market, the knowledge of hourly load shape by customer class is necessary. Requiring a meter as a prerequisite for lower voltage customers to choose a power supplier is not considered practical at the present time. In order to be used by Energy Service Provider (ESP) to assign customers to specific load profiles with certainty factors, a technique which bases on load research and customers¡¦ monthly energy usage data for a preliminary screening of customer load profiles is required. Distribution systems supply electricity to different mixtures of customers, due to lack of field measurements, load point data used in distribution network studies have various degrees of uncertainties. In order to take the expected uncertainties in the demand into account, many previous methods have used fuzzy load models in their studies. However, the issue of deriving these models has not been discussed. To address this issue, an approach for building these fuzzy load models is needed. Load aggregation allows customers to purchase electricity at a lower price. In some contracts, load factor is considered as one critical aspect of aggregation. To facilitate a better load aggregation in distribution networks, feeder reconfiguration could be used to improve the load factor in a distribution subsystem. To solve the aforementioned problems, two data mining techniques, namely, the fuzzy c-means (FCM) method and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based pattern recognition technique, are proposed for load profiling and customer class assignment. A variant to the previous load profiling technique, customer hourly load distributions obtained from load research can be converted to fuzzy membership functions based on a possibility¡Vprobability consistency principle. With the customer class fuzzy load profiles, customer monthly power consumption and feeder load measurements, hourly loads of each distribution transformer on the feeder can be estimated and used in distribution network analysis. After feeder models are established, feeder reconfiguration based on binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO) technique is used to improve feeder load factors. Test results based on several simple sample networks have shown that the proposed feeder reconfiguration method could improve customers¡¦ position for a good bargain in electricity service.

Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs) are battery operated, remote controlled miniature flying vehicles. MAVs are required in military missions, traffic management, hostage situation surveillance, sensing, spying, scientific, rescue, police and mapping applications. The essential characteristics required for MAVs are: light weight, maneuverability, ease of launch in variety of conditions, ability to operate in very hostile environments, stealth capabilities and small size. There are three main classes of MAVs : fixed, rotary and flapping wing MAV’s. There are some MAVs which are combinations of these main classes. Each class has its own advantage and disadvantage. Different scenarios may call for different types of MAV. Amongst the various classes, flapping wing class of MAVs offer the required potential for miniaturisation and maneuverability, necessitating the need to understand flapping wing flight. In the case of flapping winged flight, the thrust required for the vehicle flight is obtained due to the flapping of the wing. Hence for efficient flapping flight, optimising the flap motion is necessary. In this thesis work, an algorithm for motion optimisation of plunging airfoils is developed in a parallel framework. An evolutionary optimisation algorithm, PSO (Particle Swarm Optimisation), is coupled with an unsteady flow solver to develop a generic motion optimisation tool for plunging airfoils. All the unsteady flow computations in this work are done with the HIFUN1 code, developed in–house in the Computational Aerodynamics Laboratory, IISc. This code is a cell centered finite volume compressible flow solver. The motion optimisation algorithm involves starting with a population of motion curves from which an optimal curve is evolved. Parametric representation of curves using NURBS is used for efficient handling of the motion paths. In the present case, the motion paths of a plunging NACA 0012 airfoil is optimised to give maximum flight efficiency for both inviscid and laminar cases. Also, the present analysis considers all practically achievable plunge paths, si- nusoidal and non–sinusoidal, with varying plunge amplitudes and slopes. The results show promise, and indicate that the algorithm can be extended to more realistic three dimension motion optimisation studies.