This report deals with rainfall-runoff modeling and small water reservoir projection with usage of modern software equipments (GIS, HEC-HMS), using maximum number of available data sources (BPEJ, LPIS, N-year rainfall gages, 3D contours …). The advantage of this method is that it is possible to predict the shape of hydrograph and flood wave volume as well. Other methods cannot offer judgment of flood wave volume and hydrograph shape as this method does. The most important thing in small water reservoir projection is the flood wave volume value, which is undervalued nowadays using wrong evaluation. This method’s advantage is variability of scenarios depending on soil surface, used agricultures, hydraulic and hydrologic parameters etc.

Depuis 2006, à EDF, les études de crues extrêmes sont réalisées avec la méthode SCHADEX (Simulation Climato-Hydrologique pour l'Appréciation des Débits EXtrêmes). Elle s'appuie sur un modèle probabiliste MEWP (distribution saisonnière utilisant une classification par type de temps) pour décrire l'aléa pluie et sur une simulation stochastique croisant l'aléa pluie et l'aléa de saturation du bassin. Les approches par simulation, type SCHADEX, ont montré de bonnes performances pour estimer les distributions de crues extrêmes (projet ANR ExtraFlo , 2013). Cependant, l'utilisation de SCHADEX en l'absence de données (pluie, température, débit) sur le bassin à étudier reste problématique. Cette thèse propose une adaptation de la méthode en site non jaugé en essayant de conserver ses points forts, à savoir: - une structuration spatiale et probabiliste des précipitations conditionnée par les types de temps. - un croisement des aléas pluie et saturation du bassin par simulation stochastique. Ce travail s'est limité au pas de temps journalier afin d'aborder la problématique de régionalisation avec un maximum de données. La démarche s'est alors articulée autour de quatre grands axes: - proposer une méthode de régionalisation des précipitations journalières extrêmes ponctuelles et construire des cartes de pluies aux temps de retour remarquables. Évaluer l'intérêt d'une classification par type de temps pour la régionalisation des distributions de pluies extrêmes et qualifier l'interpolateur de pluie SPAZM pour l'estimation des pluies extrêmes. - s'intéresser à la construction de pluies de bassin (ou pluies spatiales) et en particulier à l'impact des choix de construction de cette pluie sur l'estimation des précipitations extrêmes concernant le bassin. - développer une méthode de simulation stochastique régionale permettant de proposer une distribution de débits journaliers issue d'un croisement des aléas pluies et saturation du bassin. - étudier le passage de la distribution des débits journaliers à la distribution des débits de pointe. Les principaux apports de cette thèse sont les suivants: - la prise en compte des types de temps permet d'améliorer la description des structures spatiales des précipitations extrêmes. - l'information apportée par les pluies SPAZM se révèle être précieuse pour l'estimation des pluies extrêmes en site non jaugé. - une étude de sensibilité du calcul de la pluie spatiale en fonction du nombre de postes utilisés (comparaison des pluies SPAZM et Thiessen) donne une indication sur le biais d'estimation. - le générateur de champs de pluie par bandes tournantes SAMPO permet d'étudier l'abattement sur les précipitations extrêmes et de mettre en place un modèle de correction pour les quantiles élevés des pluies spatiales SPAZM. - une nouvelle méthode de simulation stochastique peu paramétrée mais analogue à la méthode SCHADEX (croisement d'un aléa pluie et d'un aléa de saturation du bassin pour produire une distribution des débits journaliers) est proposée pour l'estimation en site non jaugé. - enfin, un travail préliminaire donne des premiers éléments sur le passage à la distribution des débits de pointe par un générateur d'hydrogrammes s'adaptant à la séquence des débits journaliers simulés. Tous ces développements et conclusions sont détaillés et justifiés dans le mémoire de thèse. / Since 2006, at EDF, extreme flood estimations are computed with the SCHADEX method (Climatic-hydrological simulation of extreme floods). This method relies on a MEWP probabilistic model (seasonal rainfall distribution using a weather pattern concept) and on a stochastic simulation to cross rainy events hazard and catchment saturation states. Simulation approaches, as SCHADEX, have shown good performances to estimate extreme flood distributions. However, the use of SCHADEX method without data for a considered catchment (rain, temperature, runoff) remains a main issue. This thesis suggests an adaptation of the method in ungauged context, trying to keep the key points of the SCHADEX method: - spatial and probabilistic structure of rainfall conditioned by weather patterns. - a cross of rainfall and catchment saturation hazards by stochastic simulation. This work is limited to a daily step to address the issue of regionalization with a maximum of data. The approach is then structured around four main points: - regionalize punctual daily extreme precipitations and construct maps of return period rainfalls. Evaluate the contribution of a weather type classification for the regionalization of extreme rainfall distributions and qualify the SPAZM interpolator for the estimation of extreme rainfall. - wonder about the construction of an areal rainfall and in particular about the impact of its construction choices on the estimation of extreme precipitations. - develop a regional stochastic simulation method to estimate a distribution of daily runoffs which crosses rainy events and catchment saturation hazards. - study the transposition from a daily runoff distribution to a peak flow distribution. The main contributions of this thesis are: - taking into account the weather types improves the description of spatial patterns of extreme precipitations. - information provided by the SPAZM rainfall interpolator proves to be valuable for the estimation of extreme rainfall in ungauged site. - a sensitivity analysis of the calculation of the areal rainfall based on the number of stations used (comparison SPAZM and Thiessen areal rainfalls) gives an indication of the estimation bias. - the SAMPO rainfall generator used to study the areal reduction factor of extreme precipitation and implement a correction model for high quantiles of SPAZM areal rainfall. - a simplified method of stochastic simulation similar to SCHADEX method (cross between a rainfall hazard and a catchment saturation hazard) is developed to produce a distribution of daily flows in ungauged site. - finally, preliminary work provides a way for the transition to the peak flow distribution using a hydrograph generator adapted to the sequence of daily simulated runoffs. All these developments and conclusions are detailed and justified in the thesis.STAR

The rapid urban growth in many Brazilian cities in the twentieth century occurred without the proper planning and infrastructure. In these cities, floods cause great material and human losses every year. Therefore, the authorities and community must propose and implement flood control measures after detailed studies of the characteristics of the watershed . Thus, hydrological simulations of the stream Jataí watershed located in Uberlândia/MG, was performed using the software ABC - Complex Watershed Analysis, from the University of São Paulo considering the return period of 100 years for the project rain. This watershed has an area of 15.99 km² and was discretized by sub-basins considering the land use and occupation at the current urbanization and critical scenario (fully urbanized and occupied basin). The damping reservoir existent in the study area were considered in the simulations and it was proposed the implementation of a parallel damping reservoir near to the watershed output. The sub-basins 02 and 08 simulated alone at the critical scenario provided the highest maximum flow rates of 193.17 and 162.78 m³/s respectively. Furthermore, the damping reservoirs 02 and 05 showed the largest decreases of input hydrogram peak flow with maximum reductions of 86.3 and 76.6% respectively at the current urbanization scenario. The implementation of the proposed parallel damping reservoir allowed the reduction of peak flows at the basin outlet of 26.8% from 211.65 to 154.87 m³/s in the current scenario and 22.3% reduction from 262.28 to 203, 86 m³/s at the critical urbanization scenario. Based on these results, it is possible to conclude that the damping reservoirs are very important to control runoff and it is necessary and urgent to implement new flood control measures in the Jataí stream watershed to reduce the inconvenience caused by heavy intensity rains. / O rápido crescimento urbano de muitas cidades brasileiras no século XX ocorreu sem o planejamento e infraestrutura adequados. Nessas cidades, as enchentes causam grandes prejuízos materiais e humanos todos os anos. Diante disso, é dever das autoridades e comunidade propor e implementar medidas de controle de enchentes após estudos detalhados das características da bacia hidrográfica. Neste sentido, foram realizadas simulações hidrológicas da microbacia hidrográfica do córrego Jataí, em Uberlândia/MG, com a utilização do software ABC Análise de Bacias Complexas da Universidade de São Paulo, considerando o período de retorno de 100 anos para a chuva de projeto. Esta microbacia possui área de 15,99 km² e foi discretizada por sub-bacias considerando o uso e ocupação do solo nos cenários de urbanização atual e crítico (bacia plenamente urbanizada e ocupada). Nas simulações foram considerados os reservatórios de amortecimento existentes na área de estudo, além de se propor a implantação de um reservatório de amortecimento paralelo próximo ao exutório da microbacia. As sub-bacias 02 e 08 simuladas isoladamente no cenário crítico forneceram as maiores vazões máximas de 193,17 e 162,78 m³/s respectivamente. Além disso, os reservatórios de amortecimento 02 e 05 apresentaram as maiores reduções das vazões de pico do hidrograma de entrada com reduções máximas de 86,3 e 76,6% no cenário atual respectivamente. A proposta de implantação do reservatório de amortecimento paralelo permitiu a redução das vazões de pico no exutório em 26,8% de 211,65 para 154,87 m³/s no cenário atual e em 22,3% de 262,28 para 203,86 m³/s no cenário crítico. Diante dos resultados obtidos, conclui-se que os reservatórios de amortecimento têm função importante no controle do escoamento superficial, sendo necessária e urgente a implantação de novas medidas de controle de enchentes na microbacia do córrego Jataí para reduzir os transtornos causados por chuvas intensas. / Mestre em Engenharia Civil

The aim of the thesis is to set a hydrology model based on existed methodology DesQ-MaxQ, which comes from "Designing flows from a very small catchments" established in 1989. The model is able to set a nearest meteorology station and his 24-hours rainfall depths for periods of repetition 2,5,10,20,50 and 100 years. Substitute rainfall depths are set by "reduction of 24-hours rainfall depths" methodology. According to hydraulic and hydrology conditions of catchment, duration of the critical rains for each period of repetition are set also peak flow rates and total runoffs from the catchment. Application can work in two modes - "one slope" and "two slopes". The second option also includes calculation of design duration for the model catchment and superposition of hydrograph. Application RainRunoff was develop in C# programming language with graphic user interface and option to exports hydrographs.

From the Proceedings of the 1974 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 19-20, 1974, Flagstaff, Arizona / A stochastic model is presented for the prediction of sediment yield in a semi-arid watershed based on rainfall data and watershed characteristics. Random variables which lead to uncertainty in the model are rainfall amount, storm duration, runoff, and peak flow. Soil conservation service formulas are used to compute the runoff and peak flow components of the universal soil loss equation, and a transformation of random variables is used to obtain the distribution function of sediment yield from the joint distribution of rainfall amount and storm duration. Applications of the model are in the planning of reservoirs and dams where the effective lifetime of the facility may be evaluated in terms of storage capacity as well as the effects of land management of the watershed. In order to calibrate the model and to evaluate the uncertainties involved, experimental data from the Atterbury watershed near Tucson, Arizona were used.