Submitted by Gabriela Lopes (gmachadolopesufpel@gmail.com) on 2016-09-28T13:41:56Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Última - Versão BR - Full version of thesis - Gustavo MALAGI 05 01 15.pdf: 7874392 bytes, checksum: 6b766fe0ba0e658ee8b6a3b3752fbb91 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2016-09-28T19:00:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Última - Versão BR - Full version of thesis - Gustavo MALAGI 05 01 15.pdf: 7874392 bytes, checksum: 6b766fe0ba0e658ee8b6a3b3752fbb91 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-28T19:00:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Última - Versão BR - Full version of thesis - Gustavo MALAGI 05 01 15.pdf: 7874392 bytes, checksum: 6b766fe0ba0e658ee8b6a3b3752fbb91 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-02 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Os padrões climáticos têm sofrido alterações em escala global nas últimas décadas e consequências graves sobre o desenvolvimento de diversas espécies vegetais têm sido observadas. A intensificação dos avanços fenológicos no hemisfério norte tem despertado o interesse sobre a compreensão da fisiologia da dormência de espécies temperadas quando submetidas a regimes de aquecimento. A proposta desse estudo foi comparar os padrões regionais de temperatura e floração de cultivares de macieiras cultivadas em climas contrastantes, a partir de uma extensa base de dados de temperatura e fenologia. Assim, foi possível compreender como a temperatura controla o processo de floração e diagnosticar as zonas de produção mais vulneráveis ao aquecimento. Séries históricas de temperatura foram coletadas na Europa Ocidental (inverno frio), Marrocos e no sul do Brasil (inverno quente). Datas de ocorrência de dois estágios de floração e o tempo transcorrido entre eles foram analisados. Verificou-se o aquecimento de todas as áreas da Europa Ocidental na primavera, e um leve aquecimento do período invernal na zona sul dessa região. Nesses locais os avanços das datas de floração e o curto tempo de floração ocorreram pela elevação das temperaturas primaveris. A região sul mostrou-se mais vulnerável a futuros aquecimentos. No Marrocos e sul do Brasil o aquecimento foi mínimo nas últimas décadas sendo o inverno mais afetado. Leves mudanças fenológicas e longos períodos de floração estiveram associados às temperaturas invernais. Padrões de fenologia e temperatura intermediárias foram observados no Marrocos. Por outro lado, estudo complementar foi conduzido no Brasil e na França visando compreender o mecanismo de dormência da macieira, os fatores intrínsecos que a controlam, além de analisar as variabilidades regionais e varietais. A cinética da dormência foi determinada em gemas vegetativas por “One-bud cutting test” e em gemas florais por “Tabuenca’s test”. Gemas vegetativas apresentaram dormência oscilante durante outono-inverno-primavera na França, sendo profunda no inverno. No Brasil, as gemas vegetativas apresentaram dormência com variações amenas no período equivalente e com profundidade superficial. O aumento significativo do peso fresco e seco dos primórdios florais caracterizou a fase transitória entre endo- e ecodormência. No entanto, o estabelecimento da ecodormência esteve relacionado com o aumento significativo do peso seco e da capacidade de reidratação dos primórdios florais. A transição entre essas fases foi acelerada no Brasil e mais lenta na França. Ainda, a partir de dados históricos de temperatura e fenologia, foram selecionados modelos fenológicos sequenciais capazes de estimar regionalmente as datas anuais de floração em ambos os hemisférios. Dois modelos foram validados para a estimação do estágio de floração BBCH 61 (NHGoldenF1) e BBCH 65 (NHGoldenF2) de Golden Delicious, na Europa Ocidental. Esses modelos apresentaram elevada acuracidade e apresentaram eficiência superior aos modelos termais. Considerando um cenário RCP de incremento intenso da temperatura até o final do século, observou-se tendência de alongamento do período de acúmulo de frio, principalmente em Nîmes, e antecipação das datas de floração em Angers, até o final desse século, segundo os dois modelos NH. Em ambos os cenários e locais, observou-se redução significativa da fase de ecodormência até o final desse século, com os menores valores registrados em Nîmes. Essa perspectiva de mudanças na temperatura na região Mediterrânea da Europa predispõe futuramente o alongamento do período de floração, resultando distúrbios fisiológicos característicos de regiões de clima ameno hoje. Outros conceitos de modelos ou a inclusão de múltiplos fatores durante a parametrização devem ser considerados em um futuro breve, haja vista ainda, que o agravamento 12 climático na Europa, poderá comprometer a aplicabilidade dos modelos sequências, como se observou na atual situação climática do sul do Brasil. / Weather patterns have changed globally in recent decades causing serious consequences on the development of several plant species. The intensification of phenological advances in the northern hemisphere has raised interest in the understanding of dormancy physiology in temperate species when subjected to warming regimes. The purpose of this study was to compare regional patterns of temperature on the flowering of apple tree cultivars grown under contrasting climates, using an extensive database of temperature and phenology records. Thus, it was possible to understand how temperature controls the flowering process and identify the areas most vulnerable to warming. Historical temperature series collected for Western Europe (cold winter), Morocco and Southern Brazil (warm winter) were used. Historical dates of two flowering stages and the time between them were analyzed. All areas in Western Europe experienced warming in the spring, whereas a slight warming of winter was found in the mild areas. The observed advancement of blooming dates and the short blooming time were linked to spring temperature increase in Western Europe, with the southern region being more vulnerable to future warming. In Morocco and Southern Brazil minimal warming was found in recent decades but winter was most affected. Weak phenological changes and long flowering periods were associated with winter temperatures. Phenology patterns and intermediate temperatures were observed in Morocco. Moreover, an additional study was conducted in Brazil and France to understand the mechanism of dormancy in apple trees, the intrinsic factors that controls it, and to analyze the regional and varietal variability. The kinetics of dormancy in vegetative buds was determined by a "One-bud cutting test" and in floral buds by "Tabuenca's test." Vegetative buds showed fluctuating dormancy during autumn-winter-spring in France, which was deeper in winter. In Brazil, the vegetative buds showed weak variations and shallow depth in the equivalent period. The significant increase in fresh and dry weight of flower primordia characterized the transitional phase between endo- and ecodormancy. However, ecodormancy establishment was related to the significant increase in dry weight of floral primordia and their ability to rehydrate. The transition between these phases was fast in Brazil and slower in France. Sequential models, able to estimate annual blooming dates in both hemispheres were selected from historical temperature and phenology data. Two models were validated to estimate the stages BBCH 61 (NHGoldenF1) and BBCH 65 (NHGoldenF2) of Golden Delicious in Western Europe. These models showed high accuracy and greater efficiency in relation to thermal models. Considering a CPR scenario of intense increase in temperature by the end of this century, there was estimated a trend to extend the period of chill accumulation, especially in Nîmes, and advance dates for flowering in Angers, by the end of this century, according the two NH models. Under both scenarios and locations, there was a significant reduction in the ecodormancy phase, with the lowest values recorded at Nîmes. The projected changes in temperature in the mediterranean region of Europe can extend the flowering period, resulting in physiologic disturbances as today in mild climate. Other concepts of models and/or the inclusion of multiple factors in the model should be considered in the near future, considering that warming in Europe may compromise the applicability of the sequential models, as observed currently in southern Brazil.

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L’étude des communautés microbiennes de la baie de raisin dans des conditions de production à l’échelle de la parcelle montre une dynamique temporelle des populations cultivables, qui se traduit par une augmentation des niveaux de population à partir des stades de début véraison et début maturité. Concernant la communauté bactérienne cultivable, 44 espèces appartenant à 21 genres ont été identifiées. Parmi les huit genres identifiés pour la population fongique, les espèces appartenant au genre Aureobasidium sont les plus abondantes, contrairement aux espèces fermentaires qui restent minoritaires. L’incidence des facteurs biotiques et abiotiques sur différents paramètres de population microbienne tels que la structure, la densité et l’activité métabolique a été analysée. Nous avons observé que les zones climatiques plus fraîches et humides, favorisent le développement des microorganismes. Ces travaux mettent en évidence l’impact écotoxique du cuivre sur la communauté microbienne, en particulier dans sa fraction bactérienne. Le développement de Botrytis cinerea sur la grappe modifie la communauté microbienne des baies de raisin sain : le nombre d’espèces bactériennes augmente ainsi que leur diversité. La communauté bactérienne de la baie de raisin est proche de celle des feuilles d’un point de vue de sa structure, et mais éloignée de celles des écorces et du sol, avec des indices de diversité et de richesse plus faibles. / The study of microbial communities associated with wine grapes under field conditions revealed changes in the size and structure during the berry ripening process, with levels rising gradually and reaching their highest value when the berries were over ripe. During this work several bacteria and fungi species, including fermentative yeast, have been isolated and identified. From cultured bacteria, over 44 species were identified from 21 genera. Concerning fungi population, among eight genera identified, the genus Aureobasidium was the most abundant. Our study reveals the impact of different abiotic and biotic factors over microbial community structure, density and metabolic activity. Comparing different vineyards in the same region, we observed that areas presenting more humid and colder climate favor the growth of microorganisms. Our results also show that the farming system has a clear impact on the microbial community, especially in the bacterial fraction. One of the reasons is the inhibiting effect of copper-based fungicides, frequently used in both organic and conventional farming systems. The presence of Botrytis cinerea in grape berries without visual symptoms of infection can change the microbial community of the grapes, increasing bacterial population density and diversity.

Le changement climatique continue d'affecter la dynamique des paysages forestiers à grande échelle. Cependant, il demeure incertain comment ces changements affecteront les forêts futures et en particulier les épidémies des insectes ravageurs forestiers. Le changement climatique affecte l’émergence des insectes, en perturbant notamment la synchronisation phénologique entre les insectes herbivores et leurs arbres hôtes. De telles perturbations peuvent avoir des conséquences importantes sur le moment de l’émergence, l'étendue et la gravité de l'épidémie. Cette étude vise à comprendre comment le changement climatique pourrait affecter la synchronie phénologique entre la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette (Choristoneura fumiferana), un défoliateur indigène, et ses espèces hôtes (Abies balsamea et Picea mariana) et comment cela pourrait affecter l'étendue des épidémies de la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette dans la région de la Côte-Nord au Québec, Canada. Nous avons exploré les effets de deux facteurs expérimentaux sur l'étendue des épidémies à l'aide d'un modèle de simulation stochastique spatialement explicite à base d’agents (MBA): (1) la température quotidienne représentée selon deux niveaux d'augmentation (+2°C et +4°C) relative à une base de référence 2016 et (2) la variation de la phénologie des arbres hôtes correspondant aux différents niveaux d'incertitude (SD) concernant le moment du débourrement des bourgeons. Nous avons évalué comment ces facteurs ont affecté la variation de l'étendue des épidémies de la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette et la complexité spatiale du patch épidémique sur un horizon de simulation de 20 ans. Nos résultats de simulation indiquent que la synchronisation phénologique arbres hôtes-insectes est fortement affectée par les changements de température, mais de manière non linéaire. Une augmentation de 2°C a permis de réduire l'étendue de l'épidémie en raison de la faible survie des larves, tandis qu'une augmentation de 4°C a entraîné une survie plus élevée des insectes et des épidémies plus importantes. Notre modèle peut aider à prévoir la dynamique future des forêts et faciliter l'élaboration de meilleures stratégies de gestion pour réduire l'effet des épidémies sur les paysages forestiers. / Climate change continues to affect forest landscape dynamics at a global scale. However, it remains uncertain how these changes will affect future forests and in particular outbreaks of forest insect pests. Climate change can affect outbreaking insects by disrupting phenological synchrony between herbivorous insects and their host trees. Such disruptions can have important consequences for outbreak timing, extent, and severity. This study aims to understand how climate change could affect the phenological synchrony between the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), a native outbreaking defoliator, and its host trees (Abies balsamea and Picea mariana), and how this might affect the extent of spruce budworm outbreaks in the Côte-Nord region in Quebec, Canada. We explored the effects of two experimental factors on outbreak extent using a spatially explicit stochastic agent-based simulation model (ABM): (1) daily temperature represented as two levels of increase (+2°C and +4 °C) relative to a 2016 baseline, and (2) variation in host phenology represented as four different levels of uncertainty (SD) around the timing of budburst. We assessed how these factors affected variation in spruce budworm outbreak extent and outbreak patch spatial complexity over a 20-year simulation horizon. Our simulation results indicate that host trees-insect phenological synchrony is strongly affected by temperature changes, but in a non-linear way. An increase of 2°C was found to reduce outbreak extent due to poor larval survival, while an increase of 4°C resulted in higher insect survival and larger outbreaks. Our model can help to forecast future forest dynamics and facilitate the development of better management strategies to reduce the effect of outbreaks on forest landscapes.

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