The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands along the U.S. Atlantic Coast and is highly vulnerable to habitat change and predation. We have addressed these two threats by 1) developing and implementing a linked model system that predicts future change to piping plover habitat resulting from sea-level rise and beach management efforts by joining dynamic models of sea-level rise, shoreline change, island geomorphology and piping plover nest habitat suitability, and 2) quantifying occupancy and movement of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), a key shorebird predator at Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia. We constructed and tested a model that links changes in geomorphological characteristics to piping plover nesting habitat suitability. We then linked this model to larger scale shoreline change resulting from sea level rise and storms. Using this linked model to forecast future sea-level rise and beach management efforts, we found that modest sea-level rise rates (3 mm and 4.1 mm/yr; similar to current rates) may increase suitable piping plover nesting habitat area in 50-100 years and some beach management strategies (beach nourishment and artificial dune modifications) also influence habitat availability. Our development and implementation of this tool to predict change in piping plover habitat suitability provides a vital starting point for predicting how plover nesting habitat will change in a context of planned human modifications intended to address climate change-related threats. Our findings regarding red fox occupancy and movement complement the use of this model for planning future management actions by providing vital information on the effects of certain predator management activities and habitat use of a key mammalian predator, the red fox, for shorebirds along the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Overall, we found that 1) red fox occupancy was strongly tied to eastern cottontail (Sylvilagus floridanus) trap success, increasing sharply with increased eastern cottontail trap success, 2) red fox occupancy did not change in response to an intensive eradication program, and 3) red foxes in our study area generally moved little between camera stations spaced 300 m from each other, but may move large distances (> 6km) at times, likely to occupy new territory available after lethal control efforts. Our findings have important ramifications for the sustainability of long-term predator removal programs and our understanding of future habitat change on the red fox. For example how vegetation changes affect eastern cottontails, how resulting fluctuations in eastern cottontails affect red fox occupancy, and how consequential changes in red fox occupancy affect plover breeding productivity. Our predictive model combined with these predator findings will allow wildlife managers to better plan and implement effective management actions for piping plovers in response to the multiple stressors of SLR-induced habitat change and predation. / Ph. D.

Globally, riparian ecosystems are in decline due to anthropogenic modifications including damming, channelization and the conversion of the floodplain for human use. These changes can profoundly affect riparian species as many have adapted to the historical dynamism of these ecosystems. On the managed Missouri River, an imperiled shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus) uses riverine sandbars to breed. From 2004 to 2009, due to limited breeding habitat and low population numbers, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers constructed 255 ha of sandbar habitat to benefit piping plovers and least terns (Sternula antillarum). During the breeding seasons of 2010 and 2011, historically high flows resulted in the creation of 1,887 ha of suitable sandbar habitat. Our study compared the demographic response and the condition of piping plovers to these anthropogenic and natural habitat creation events. From 2005–2014 we monitored 1,071 nests, and from those nests we uniquely banded 968 adults and 2,021 piping plover chicks. We obtained 405 egg (clutch) mass measurements, 1,285 mass measurements from 633 adults, and 7,093 mass measurements from 1,996 plover chicks resulting in 3,175 mass measurements from 654 broods of chicks. We also collected 3,347 invertebrate prey samples. We used a random effects logistic exposure model to estimate nest success, a random effects Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in RMARK to estimate pre-fledge chick survival and the Barker model in RMARK to estimate hatch-year (HY) and after hatch-year (AHY) survival and fidelity to our study area. We then used estimates from these analyses to calculate reproductive output, reproductive output necessary for a stationary population, and population growth (λ). For adult condition and egg (clutch) mass we used generalized linear mixed regression, and for pre-fledge chick growth rates we used a modified Richard's model to estimate the effects of habitat type (pre- vs. post-flood). We also tested for differences in invertebrate prey abundance between habitat types using negative binomial regression. Our results indicated that AHY survival varied throughout our study and was lowest during the flood (2010 and 2011). We found that nest success, pre-fledge chick survival, reproductive output, and HY survival and fidelity were consistently higher on the flood-created habitat than engineered habitat, leading to sustained population growth after the flooding, as compared to just one year of population growth prior to the flood. Unlike pre-flood engineered habitat, the demographic parameters we measured did not decrease as the post-flood habitat aged. These differences were related to increased sandbar habitat, low nesting densities, and decreased nest and chick predation on the post-flood habitat. Although we hypothesized that increased demographic rates would be reflected by increased piping plover condition following the flood, we found that our measured condition variables (adult mass, clutch mass, and pre-fledge chick growth rates) remained unchanged following the flood. We also found evidence that clutch mass, chick growth rates and invertebrate prey abundance decreased as the post-flood sandbar habitat aged. As the condition of individuals did not appear to contribute directly to the increased demographic rates following the flood, we suggest that the change in density-dependent predation pressure may explain the discrepancy. As many ecosystems have previously been altered, it's rare that ecologists have the opportunity to compare management practices with natural ecosystem processes. Results from this study suggest that management intervention may not be an equivalent substitute for natural ecosystem processes and provide insight on future management of riparian ecosystem. / Master of Science

We studied piping plovers (Charadrius melodus Ord) on Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland, during the 1988-1990 breeding seasons. The estimated breeding population declined from 25 pairs in 1988 to 14 pairs in 1990. Nest predation by red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) was high. Predator exclosures constructed around individual nests did not increase nest survival. Chick survival was higher in bay beach and island interior brood-rearing habitats than on the ocean beach. Our evidence supports the hypothesis that the availability of adequate food is driving the differences in survival observed among brood-rearing habitats. Chicks raised on the bay beach or island interior weighed more, had higher foraging rates, and spent a greater proportion of their time foraging than chicks reared on the ocean beach. Indices of invertebrate prey abundance indicated that insects were more abundant on the bay beach and island interior than on the ocean beach. Disturbance did not differ among brood-rearing habitats. Human disturbance was higher in 1990 than in previous years. Overall productivity was 0.71 chicks fledged/breeding pair, well below our estimate of the productivity needed to deter a population decline. Management efforts should focus on reducing nest predation and maintaining overwash access paths to high quality brood-rearing habitat. / Master of Science

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