Africanized honey bees (AHB) are a hybrid between African and European honey bees (EHB). Compared to the EHB, AHB exhibit more intense, defensive behaviors but nevertheless provide the same important ecosystem service--pollination. AHB have been found in Tucson, AZ. since 1993. It is important to understand the population ecology of AHB for several reasons. Most directly, the behavioral traits retained from African bees present public safety and health risk. AHB are easily agitated; even slight disturbances (e.g., human movements) can provoke attacks. Several hybridized bee traits (e.g., higher colony growth rates, reproduction at a smaller colony size, nesting in a wider range of cavity materials, etc.) also make them more adapted to urban landscapes. The overlap of habitats and resource-using of AHB with human significantly raise the risk of stinging incidents, especially in the areas of bee aggregation. Although the presence of AHB in urban environments may present a public safety and health risk, they do contribute to urban ecosystems substantially through pollination. The fact that AHB is a part of the urban ecosystem suggests a need for a better understanding of the relationship among climate factors, urban landscape characteristics, and AHB population dynamics. The goal of my dissertation was to understand population dynamics of AHB in urban environments using removal records of AHB colonies in water meter boxes. I have demonstrated useful methods and repeatable procedures to process, extract, and synthesize water meter box data which were not collected or sampled specifically for any ecological research. I also examined the spatio-temporal distributions of AHB colony removals in water meter boxes, and evaluated the effects of variations of temperature and precipitation on observed patterns. Then, I investigated the linkage between spatial patterns of AHB colonies and urban landscape characteristics by evaluating densities of water meter boxes, AHB colony abundance, and colony occupancy among different land cover/land use types. Lastly, a conceptual model and quantitative models were developed to illustrate AHB population dynamics, particularly and the interactions among water meter boxes, alternative cavities, and honey bee colonies. Overall, the probabilities of AHB colonies selecting nesting sites can be influenced by: (1) the ratio of water meter boxes and alternative cavities; (2) the difference of vegetative attributes among locations associated with the preference of AHB in selecting new nesting sites. Seasonal variations of precipitation and temperature can affect the development and productivity of AHB population.

The current treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection – combination therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin – elicits sustained responses in only ~50% of the patients treated. Greater cumulative exposure to ribavirin increases response to interferon-ribavirin combination therapy. A key limitation, however, is the toxic sideeffect of ribavirin, hemolytic anemia, which often necessitates a reduction of ribavirin dosage and compromises treatment response. Maximizing treatment response thus requires striking a balance between the antiviral and hemolytic activities of ribavirin. Current models of viral kinetics describe the enhancement of treatment response due to ribavirin. Ribavirin-induced anemia, however, remains poorly understood and precludes rational optimization of combination therapy. Here, we develop a new mathematical model of the population dynamics of erythrocytes that quantitatively describes ribavirin-induced anemia in HCV patients. Based on the assumption that ribavirin accumulation decreases erythrocyte lifespan in a dose-dependent manner, model predictions capture several independent experimental observations of the accumulation of ribavirin in erythrocytes and the resulting decline of hemoglobin in HCV patients undergoing combination therapy, estimate the reduced erythrocyte lifespan in patients and describe inter-patient variations in the severity of ribavirin-induced anemia. Further, model predictions estimate the threshold ribavirin exposure beyond which anemia becomes intolerable and suggest guidelines for the usage of growth hormones. A small fraction of the population (~30%) with polymorphisms in the ITPA gene shows protection from ribavirin-induced anemia. The optimum dosage of ribavirin that can be tolerated is then dependent on the ITPA polymorphisms. Coupled with a previous population pharmacokinetic study, our model yields a facile formula for estimating the optimum dosage given a patient’s weight, creatinine clearance, pretreatment hemoglobin levels, and ITPA polymorphism. The reduced lifespan we predict is in agreement with independent measurements from breath tests as well as estimates derived from in vitro studies of ATP depletion. The latter estimates also agree with the extent of ATP depletion due to ribavirin that we predict from a detailed analysis of the nucleoside metabolism in erythrocytes. Our model thus facilitates in conjunction with models of viral kinetics the rational identification of treatment protocols. Our formula for optimum dose presents an avenue for personalizing ribavirin dosage. By keeping anemia tolerable, the predicted optimal dosage may improve adherence, reduce the need for drug monitoring, and increase response rates.