The effects of a non-zero background state on atmospheric dynamics is explored through simple models and observations. Firstly, we examine the effects of moisture gradients on the stability and propagation of Rossby waves in a mid-latitude -plane. We begin by a consistent derivation of the forced quasi-geostrophic equations on a -plane to understand the constraints placed by geostrophy on the time scale of condensation. We see that the presence of meridional gradients of moisture results in a slowdown of the waves. On the introduction of zonal gradients of moisture, the waves become unstable, and for certain parameters which are representative of the real atmosphere, they propagate eastward and mature on an intra-seasonal timescale. The mechanism of the in hence of moisture on waves is understood by thinking of condensation as providing an \equivalent" potential vorticity (PV) gradient which opposes the dynamical PV gradient. Secondly, we look at the effects of a mean background ow on the Matsuno-Gill response in the spherical shallow water system. The mean ow is prescribed to resemble the climatological upper tropospheric zonal wind structure in the atmosphere. As the strength of the ow increases, the equatorially trapped Matsuno-Gill response rst transforms into a poleward propagating Rossby wavetrain. As the strength of the mean ow reaches values similar to that observed in the atmosphere, the stationary wave response becomes a zonally oriented quadrupole structure. This structure bears a striking resemblance to the observed upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The time evolution of this quadrupole structure is quick enough to be relevant on MJO timescales, and the structure is quite robust across a range of values for the drag coefficient. Finally, we look at the role played by low frequency variability in the Pacific in the recent expansion of the Hadley cell. We find that the dominant effect of the low frequency variability is a stationary dispersive Rossby wavetrain extending from the tropical Paci. We further find that most of the observed expansion of the Hadley cell can be accounted for by this low frequency variability. We nd that large scale changes such as the changes in the equator-pole temperature gradient or midlatitude static stability need not be invoked to understand the observed expansion.

Orographic Rossby waves are the main mechanism by which the jet streams meander aroundthe Earth and have possibly far-reaching impacts on weather and climate (chapter 1). Hence,they are of particular importance to study and this project should serve as a starting point inwhat to consider when trying to model these waves. For example, we have to account forpressure gradients, Coriolis effect, orography, potential vorticity conservation and also Earth’scurvature at this scale. These are covered in detail in ch. 2 and adapted to the Shallow WaterEquations. In addition, some entry-level numerical techniques for solving these equations arepresented throughout ch. 2.4 and then implemented for the global-scale Shallow WaterEquations with conserved potential vorticity in ch. 3. The model is validated to work for typicalshallow water flows in a bath tub and passes common tests like the Gaussian curve test (ch.4.1). However, when considering atmospheric flows (ch. 4.2) it becomes evident that ourmodel, as well as our numerical methods are lacking and cannot reproduce Rossby waves ina stable manner. Hence, a heavily modified version of Hogan’s model (Hogan, n.d) isemployed with a simplified numerical scheme. With these corrections, orographic Rossbywaves appear to naturally form at appropriate locations. However, they do not fully exhibit theexpected behaviours discussed in ch. 2.2. Even Hogan’s model appears to have severelimitations as waves propagate in the wrong direction. Hence, this study is not complete andwarrants further development in order to be useful. / Orografiska Rossby-vågor är den huvudsakliga mekanismen genom vilken jetströmmarnaslingrar runt jorden och kan ha en omfattande inverkan på väder och klimat (kapitel 1). Därförär de av särskild betydelse att studera och detta projekt bör fungera som en utgångspunkt förvad man måste överväga när man försöker modellera dessa vågor. Till exempel så måste vi tahänsyn till tryckgradienter, Coriolis-effekten, orografi, potentiell vorticitetsbevarande och ävenjordens krökning på denna skala. Dessa beskrivs i detalj i kap. 2 och anpassas tillrörelseekvationerna för grunt vatten (Saint-Venant-ekvationerna). Därefter presenteras någranumeriska tekniker på grundläggande nivå för att lösa dessa ekvationer i kap. 2.4, varvid desedan implementeras för de globala Saint-Venant-ekvationerna med bevarad potentiellvorticitet i kap 3. Modellen är validerad för typiska grunda vattenflöden i ett badkar ochpasserar vanliga numeriska tester så som Gauss-kurvtestet (kap. 4.1) och bore-testet. Mennär vi överväger atmosfäriska flöden (kap. 4.2) blir det tydligt att våra modeller och numeriskametoder är primitiva och inte kan reproducera Rossby-vågor på ett stabilt sätt. Därmed,modifierar vi Hogans modell (Hogan, n.d) för att passa vår modell vilket resulterar orografiskaRossby-vågor. Dock så är dessa förskjutna och stämmer inte riktigt överens med teorin i kap.2.2. Även Hogans modell visar sig ha allvarliga begränsningar då vågorna propagerar i felriktning. Därmed är denna studie ej komplett och kräver ytterligare utveckling för att varaanvändbar.

A Confluência Brasil-Malvinas (CBM) é formada pelo encontro da Corrente do Brasil (CB) com a Corrente das Malvinas (CM) no Atlântico Sul e, por constituir o encontro de correntes de contorno oeste (CCO), é demarcada por um intenso gradiente horizontal de temperatura. A inclinação das isopicnais na porção mais quente de regiões de encontro de duas CCO favorece a formação de águas modais ao final do inverno. O estudo de águas modais subtropicais ainda é incipiente no Atlântico Sul, quando comparado com os diversos trabalhos versando sobre o fenômeno em outras regiões do mundo. A realização do primeiro cruzeiro oceanográfico especificamente planejado para o estudo de águas modais na região da CBM e de retroflexão da CB permitiu verificar a anisotropia desse extenso corpo d\'água, cuja espessura e profundidades máxima e mínima variam mormente com a latitude em que o fenômeno ocorre. Os dados fornecidos pelos perfiladores Argo lançados durante o cruzeiro, e ainda em operação na região da CBM, corroboraram tal observação e revelaram o limite norte da região de formação da água modal subtropical do sudoeste do Atlântico Sul (AMSTAS) em torno da latitude de 34°S. A comparação dos resultados obtidos in situ com os dados do modelo oceânico HYCOM, numa simulação de 4 anos, permitiu observar a mesma anisotropia e limite norte da área de formação. Embora relativamente curta, a série temporal viabilizou a primeira estimativa de volume da AMSTAS e uma avaliação preliminar dos processos envolvidos na dissipação da AMSTAS recém formada. O emprego de dados de satélites altímetros para o cálculo do calor armazenado (CA) na região de estudo permitiu verificar que a instabilidade apresentada na série temporal de dados do modelo HYCOM se deve sobretudo à dinâmica de mesoescala na região mais próxima do encontro das duas CCO. A análise do CA na região onde foi realizado o cruzeiro oceanográfico do estudo, permitiu identificar mais claramente a existência de diferentes padrões de calor armazenado coincidentes com áreas típicas de formação, os quais não ocorreram em áreas que continham AMSTAS apenas afundada. / The Brazil-Malvinas confluence zone (BMCZ) is an energetic region of the South Atlantic Ocean where the Brazilian Current (BC) and the Malvinas Current (MC) meet. As a convergence area of Western Boundary Currents (WBC), it is marked by intense horizontal temperature gradients. The inclination of isopycnals in the warm side of WBC convergence zone enables the formation of mode water at the end of winter. The study of subtropical mode waters in the South Atlantic is still incipient compared to similar investigations conducted in other regions of the world. The first oceanographic cruise specifically dedicated to the study of mode waters in the BMCZ and the BC retroflection helped verify the anisotropy of such extensive water masses, whose maximum and minimum thickness and depth vary mainly with the latitude where these phenomenon occur. Data derived from Argo profilers released during the cruise and currently still operating in the BMCZ, support this observation and indicate the northern limit of the formation region of the Southwestern Atlantic subtropical mode water (SASTMW) near latitude 34°S. Comparison of in situ results with those obtained from a 4-years simulation with the HYCOM ocean model, indicates similar anisotropy and northern limit of the formation area. Despite its relatively small length, this time series enabled the first estimation of the SASTMW volume, and a preliminary validation of the processes involved in the dissipation of newly formed SASTMW. The use of satellite altimetry data for the computation of heat content in the study area helped conclude that the instability observed in the time series of the HYCOM model output is due to mesoscale dynamics near the convergence zone of the BC and the MC. Analysis of heat content in the region where the oceanographic cruise was conducted helped identify the existence of different patterns in heat content, that coincide with typical formation areas but not with areas where SASTMW is already submerged.

This thesis examines previously unresolved issues regarding the fluid dynamics of the spread of buoyant water into a rotating environment. We focus in particular on the role that finite potential vorticity and background turbulence play in determining the flow properties. When water of an anomalous density enters into an oceanic basin, gravity-driven surface flows can be established as a result of the density difference. These flows are often of a sufficiently large scale that the dynamics are affected by the Coriolis force arising from the rotation of the earth. This causes the formation of a large outflow gyre near to the source which feeds into a propagating gravity current that is confined to the coast. Previous experimental work in this field has sought to simplify the problem through the use of a point source and a quiescent ambient. We extend this work to provide a better representation of the real-world flow by introducing a source of finite depth and background turbulence to the rotating ambient. This study seeks to answer three key questions that are critical to the understanding of the flow behaviour in this scenario. First, what is the effect of the finite potential vorticity of the outflow on the properties of the outflow vortex and the boundary current? Second, what role does the presence of the the outflow vortex play in determining the behaviour of the current? Third, what is the effect of background turbulence on the flow properties? To carry out the investigation, experiments were conducted in the laboratory and compared with a theoretical description of the flow. The currents are generated inside a rotating tank filled with saltwater by the continuous release of buoyant freshwater from a source structure located at the fluid surface. A horizontal source of finite depth is used to introduce finite potential vorticity into the outflow. The impact of background turbulence is examined by introducing an oscillating grid into the rotating tank. We find that the finite potential vorticity of the outflow plays an important role in determining the flow properties for sufficiently low Rossby and Froude number. As the value of these parameters is increased a zero potential vorticity model is able to capture the key elements of the flow behaviour. The outflow vortex is found to act as a time-varying source to the boundary current, with the current velocity fixed by the vortex velocity field. The vortex vorticity is seen to decrease with time, while the vortex radius continues to increase at late times despite the vortex having reached a limiting depth, which enables potential vorticity to be conserved and the current to be supplied with a non-zero velocity. Finally, the structure of the background turbulence is found to be key in determining the effect that it has on the flow properties, with different behaviours observed for three-dimensional and quasi- two-dimensional turbulence.

The effect of rotation on the stability of multiple jets in planetary atmospheres is system- atically investigated. Typically in Jovian planetary atmospheres, multiple zonal jets have been observed and their morphology has been systematically studied. The formation of jets has always been viewed as a nonlinear problem where most work has followed from the ideas of potential vorticity (PV) homogenization or turbulent mixing on a β-plane. In our present work, we have aimed to look at the linear stability of multiple jets in a geophysical fluid, and hope to add further insight into the observed jet profiles in β-plane turbulence. In addition, we also study the evolution and life-cycle of these jets as they interact with each other in a non linear fashion. We begin with the linear stability of the \Bickley jet" using the linearized shallow water quasigeostrophic (QG) equations. We have included a finite deformation radius in our calculations to partially mimic the effects of compressibility. A family of synthetically generated velocity profiles with east-west jets are then studied. In particular, a variety of flow configurations with two jets have been considered with a parameter sweep across jet separation, relative jet strength and thickness. As a broad observation, it is noted that an asymmetric east-west jet profile with a stronger and sharper eastward jet is the most stable of all the profiles considered, and a finite deformation radius further stabilizes such profiles. More realistic jet profiles have also been considered and the role of a finite deformation radius in stabilizing such jets is elucidated. We also examined the nonlinear evolution of multiple jets in a periodic domain and in a channel geometry, as we undertake freely decaying long time simulations of the governing QG equation. As per the \Selective Decay" principle we observe that arbitrary initial conditions approach the flow configuration of the prescribed \suitable end states". In addition, we have shown how a finite deformation length scale modifies these \suitable end states". As a broad observation, we have noted that a linearly unstable jet flow configuration, in the presence of β, breaks down into turbulence and reforms into a more asymmetric jet profile with a stronger and sharper eastward jet. The inclusion of a finite deformation length scale in our calculations, is observed to suppress such jet formation. Similar numerical experiments have been performed in a channel and the results have been compared. Chiefly, for the end states, the nature of the observed jet asymmetry is reversed, i.e., the westward jets are observed to be stronger in a channel.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / In this Dissertation were identified events of influence of the Antarctic ozone hole over the South of Brazil that occurred in the period between 1979 and 2011. For this, we analyzed the daily average data of total ozone column obtained through the Brewer Spectrophotometers MKIV #081 model during the period 1992-2000, MKII model #056 of 2000-2002 and MKIII #167 model from 2002 to the present day, installed in the Southern Space Observatory- OES/CRS/INPE MCTI (29,4 °S; 53,8°O; 488,7m) and by satellite instruments Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to the same latitude of the southern Space Observatory in the absence of surface equipment data, searching for days of falls in ozone content. For these days, isentrópicas analyses were conducted of potential vorticity using Reanalysis data provided by the National Centers for Environmental PredictionAtmospheric Research (NCEPNCAR), in order to verify the origin of ozone-poor air mass. Confirmation of the origin of polar air masses took place through the analysis of the trajectories retroactive made through the Hysplit model of NOAA. In addition, it was also conducted a complementary analysis through the pictures of the ozone content of TOMS and OMI, the ozone hole in the Antarctic region and its connection to the South of Brazil. The methodology used was effective in the identification of 66 events of the Influence of Antarctic Ozone Hole over south of Brazil, which showed an average drop of 8.66 ± 3.13 in the ozone content. The identification of the stratospheric circulation pattern through the medium of the vorticity field potential for the occurrence of the phenomenon was performed. In addition, were shown an analysis of synoptic weather troposphere during the occurrence of two events, noting that in both cases, the events occurred in a situation front post on the South of Brazil, coupled with the passage of the input region polar polar or subtropical jet stream, characterized by the occurrence of the event of the tropopause folding where stratospheric air intrusion occurs in the troposphere, and advancement of a high-pressure front post system that prevents the formation of significant cloud cover. Leveraging the operating environment of the Atmospheric Modeling Group (GRUMA) at the Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM), using data from the output of numerical weather forecasting model Global Forecast System (GFS) in making maps of potential vorticity, can carry out effectively the clue of the forecast arrival of stratospheric air masses of polar origin on the southern Brazil during the spring of the year of 2012 with at least four days in advance, coinciding with the events of transport these side effects of the Antarctic ozone hole over the South of Brazil identified in the current year. / Na presente Dissertação foram identificados os eventos de Efeito Secundário do Buraco de Ozônio Antártico ocorridos sobre o Sul do Brasil no período entre 1979 e 2011. Para isso, foram analisados os dados médios diários da coluna total de ozônio obtidos através dos Espectrofotômetros Brewer modelo MKIV #081 durante o período de 1992 2000, modelo MKII #056 de 2000 2002 e modelo MKIII #167 de 2002 até os dias atuais, instalados no Observatório Espacial do Sul OES/CRS/INPE MCTI (29,4 °S; 53,8°O; 488,7m) e pelos instrumentos de satélite Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) e Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) para a mesma latitude do Observatório Espacial do Sul na falta de dados do equipamento de superfície, buscando dias de quedas no conteúdo de ozônio. Para estes dias, foram realizadas análises isentrópicas de vorticidade potencial utilizando dados de reanálise fornecidos pelo National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), a fim de verificar a origem da massa de ar pobre em ozônio. A confirmação da origem polar das massas de ar deu-se através da análise das trajetórias retroativas confeccionadas através do modelo Hysplit da NOAA. Além disso, foi também realizada uma análise complementar através das imagens do conteúdo de ozônio dos satélites TOMS e OMI, verificando-se a atuação do Buraco de Ozônio na região Antártica e sua conexão com o Sul do Brasil. A metodologia empregada mostrou-se eficaz na identificação de 66 eventos de Efeito Secundário do Buraco de Ozônio Antártico sobre o Sul do Brasil, os quais apresentaram uma queda média de 8,66 ± 3,13 % no conteúdo de ozônio. Foi realizada a identificação do padrão de circulação estratosférica através da confecção do campo médio da vorticidade potencial para os dias de ocorrência do fenômeno. Além disso, foram mostradas as analises das condições sinótica troposférica durante a ocorrência de dois eventos, observando-se que em ambos os casos, os eventos ocorreram em uma situação pós frontal sobre o Sul do Brasil, associada à passagem da região de entrada polar da corrente de jato subtropical ou polar, caracterizada pela ocorrência de evento de quebra da tropopausa onde ocorre intrusão de ar estratosférico para dentro da troposfera, e avanço de um sistema de alta pressão pós frontal que impede a formação de nebulosidade significativa. Aproveitando o ambiente operacional do Grupo de Modelagem Atmosférica (GRUMA) da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), utilizando dados da saída do modelo de previsão numérica de tempo Global Forecast System (GFS) na confecção de mapas de vorticidade potencial, pode-se realizar eficazmente a previsão do indício da chegada de massas de ar estratosféricas de origem polar sobre o Sul do Brasil durante o período da primavera do ano de 2012, com pelo menos quatro dias de antecedência, coincidindo estes transportes com os eventos de Efeito Secundário do Buraco de Ozônio Antártico sobre o Sul do Brasil identificados no corrente ano.

L’évolution libre des fluides géostrophiques turbulents bidimensionnels fait apparaitre des tourbillons présentant une grande cohérence spatio-temporelle. Les écoulements atmosphériques tridimensionnels présentent également ce genre de structures cohérentes, notamment dans les champs de tourbillon potentiel. Certains aspects de la cyclogenèse semblent gouvernés, ou très sensibles, à la position et à l’intensité de ces anomalies. Les images des satellites géostationnaires permettent par ailleurs de visualiser les signatures de ces phénomènes, appelées intrusions sèches. Une première partie du travail adapte des outils de traitement d’image à la détection et au suivi des intrusions sèches sur les images vapeur d’eau. On utilise une approche basée sur des multi-seuillages et le suivi automatisé de structures (logiciel RDT). Le développement de caractéristiques supplémentaires s’avère nécessaire afin de sélectionner les intrusions associées à des événements dynamiques importants. L’une d’entre elles utilise l’information sur le courant-jet à partir de vents d’altitude de l’ébauche. Un deuxième volet s’applique à dégager une méthodologie de correction des structures en tourbillon potentiel à partir de ces informations. L’assimilation de données conventionnelle ne permet pas d’initialiser spécifiquement les structures. Nous décrivons les méthodes alternatives et étudions les possibilités, et limitations, d’une méthodologie basée sur l’assimilation de pseudo-observations. Cela débouche en particulier sur une version renouvelée de la relation entre vapeur d’eau et tourbillon potentiel. Les outils développés sont appliqués à la prévision de la tempête des Landes (2006). L’utilisation de données de concentration d’ozone est finalement évoquée comme une méthode alternative d’initialisation du tourbillon potentiel à la tropopause / Isolated vortices have been shown to emerge in two-dimensional and geostrophic turbulent flows. Coherent structures are apparent in three-dimensional atmospheric flows as well, and may share the property to determine the non-linear evolution and the predictability of the flow. Potential vorticity anomalies have indeed been shown to be of primary importance for cyclogenesis of mid-latitude storms. Their signature can be detected in satellite water vapour images and are known as dry intrusions. The first part of this work proceeds the tracking of dry intrusions on images. We use image processing tools based on thresholding algorithm, and develop additional filters to select relevant cells. One of this filters uses dynamical information on the jet from the background upper-level wind. We highlight the fact that conventional data assimilation does not handle coherent structures, and describe alternative procedures. We focus then on the assimilation of bogussed potential vorticity observations. This leads to a new vision of the relationship between water vapour and potential vorticity. The case study of the storms that has affected the Landes region in 2006 is then presented. We finally pinpoint ozone data as an alternative way to improve the initialization of upper-level potential vorticity

Dans un contexte international, la prévision d'intensité des cyclones tropicaux connaît encore de graves déficiences tandis que la prévision de trajectoire de ces phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes s'est grandement améliorée ces dernières décennies. Une source d'erreur pour la prévision d'intensité est le manque de connaissance des processus physiques qui régissent l'évolution de la structure et de l'intensité des cyclones. Cette thèse, proposée dans le cadre des responsabilités du Centre Météorologique Régional Spécialisé (CMRS) de la Réunion et des axes de recherche du LACy et du CNRM, a pour but d'améliorer la prévision numérique et la compréhension des mécanismes de changement de structure et d'intensité des cyclones dans le sud-ouest de l'océan Indien. On observe statistiquement dans le bassin de fréquents déferlements d'ondes de Rossby qui correspondent à une intrusion des talwegs d'altitude depuis les moyennes latitudes vers les régions où évoluent les cyclones. Ces déferlements advectent dans la troposphère tropicale de l'air d'origine stratosphérique à fort tourbillon potentiel (PV). Le cœur d'un cyclone tropical étant caractérisé par un vortex cyclonique de fort PV, il est donc légitime de se demander si de tels talwegs sont capables de « nourrir » un cyclone en déferlant jusqu'à lui, et l'intensifier par superposition de PV. D'un autre côté, l'approche d'un talweg est associée à d'autres facteurs pouvant jouer en défaveur d'une intensification, comme un fort cisaillement vertical de vent. L'étude de processus est réalisée sur le cyclone Dora (2007) avec le modèle opérationnel du CMRS sur le bassin, Aladin-Réunion. Ce modèle hydrostatique à aire limitée bénéficie d'une résolution horizontale de 8 km et de son propre schéma d'assimilation 3Dvar avec bogus de vent. Un tel bogus permet d'affiner la structure du cyclone à l'instant initial en ajoutant des observations de vent déduites d'un profil analytique et des paramètres de structure du cyclone estimés par les images satellites. Des diagnostiques sur les variables thermodynamiques en sortie de modèle montrent que la phase d'intensification rapide de Dora est bien associée à l'advection de tourbillon potentiel (PV) en provenance du talweg. Bien que fortement cisaillé, le système parvient à s'intensifier grâce à la forte inclinaison du talweg qui advecte du PV au cœur du cyclone en 2 temps et à 2 niveaux (haute et moyenne troposphère). Lorsque le talweg est au plus proche du cyclone, il force un processus dynamique interne appelé « cycle de remplacement du mur de l'œil ». On observe une inclinaison et un renforcement des vitesses verticales à l'extérieur du mur de l'œil principal, associé à une accélération de la circulation cyclonique tangentielle par advection de moment angulaire sur toute l'épaisseur de la troposphère dans cette zone annulaire (mis en évidence par les flux d'Eliassen-Palm). Un second maximum de vent relatif apparaît alors et une deuxième phase d'intensification rapide s'ensuit avec la contraction du mur secondaire. Le forçage de processus internes par une influence externe (un talweg) semble donc être le moteur de l'intensification rapide de Dora dans un environnement cisaillé, et potentiellement celui d'autres cyclones dans le bassin qui sont approchés par des talwegs d'altitude. Les prévisionnistes du CMRS sont invités à surveiller les champs de PV de tels systèmes, en attendant que de plus amples diagnostiques soient réalisés avec l'outil d'inversion du tourbillon potentiel développé sur le modèle global Arpège. / Despite significant improvements in Tropical Cyclone (TC) track forecasts over the past few decades, anticipating the sudden intensity changes of TCs remains a major operational issue. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze TC rapid intensification processes in relation with external forcing induced by upper-level troughs originating from the mid-latitudes. The impact of initial storm structure on storm evolution and prediction is also documented. An objective definition for rapid intensification in the southwest Indian Ocean is first proposed. The location and frequency of TC-trough interactions are identified, as well as TC-trough arrangements conducive to TC intensification. An interesting study case, TC Dora (2007), is chosen to run numerical simulations initialized with synthetic TC observations blended in a global analysis. The simulated TC-trough interaction is intricate with potential vorticity (PV) advection from the trough into the TC core at mid and upper levels. Vortex intensification first occurs inside the eyewall and results from PV superposition. Further intensification is associated with a subsequent secondary eyewall formation triggered by external forcing from the trough. The numerical model is able to reproduce the main features associated with outer eyewall spin-up, inner eyewall spin-down, and their effects on vortex intensity changes. Another numerical study examines typhoons in the northwest Pacific and demonstrates the critical role played by initial vortex structure in TC track and intensity prediction. Upgrading the initial specification of a TC inner-core structure in numerical models is recommended for future TC prediction improvements.

Une étude numérique de la dynamique d'ondes internes de gravité en fluide stablement stratifié est menée. On décrit un algorithme pseudo-spectral<br />parallèle permettant d'intégrer les équations de Navier-Stokes sur une machine paralèele. En deux dimensions d'espace, on analyse la dynamique d'un<br />champ d'ondes internes propagatives, d'amplitude modérée et initialement plan et monochromatique. Le champ d'ondes est instable et déferle. Le déferlement produit une turbulence de petites échelles spatiales influencées par la stratification. L'étude<br />est étendue au cas tridimensionnel, plus réaliste. En trois dimensions, on étudie le même champ d'ondes internes, que l'on perturbe par un bruit infinitésimal ondulatoire tridimensionnel, mais on considère des ondes statiquement stables et<br />instables (grandes amplitudes). On montre que le déferlement d'une onde interne est un processus intrinsèquement tridimensionnel, y compris pour les ondes de faible amplitude. La tridimensionalisation du champ d'ondes s'opère dans les zones de l'espace où le champ de densité devient statiquement instable. L'effondrement gravitationnel d'une zone est de structure transverse au plan de propagation de l'onde. Les effets de la turbulence des petites échelles sur la production de la composante non propagatrice de l'écoulement, le mode de vorticité potentielle et la production d'un écoulement moyen, permet de conclure que seule une petite proportion de l'énergie mécanique initiale est convertie sous ses deux formes, la majeure partie étant dissipée par la dissipation visqueuse et conduction thermique. On reconsidère le mode de vorticiée potentielle par une approche Hamiltonienne non-canonique du fluide parfait stratifié. La dérivation d'un système de dynamique modifiée permet d'étudier la relaxation d'un écoulement stratifié, conservant sa vorticité potentielle et sa densité, vers un état stationnaire d'énergie minimale, correspondant au mode de vorticité potentielle.

S'han estudiat diverses ciclogènesis mediterrànies mitjançant el model atmosfèric MM5,la inversió de vorticitat potencial per peces i la tècnica de la separació de factors. Elsresultats mostren com a agents per a una ciclogènesi intensa: anomalia a nivells alts;confrontació de masses d'aire càlides i fredes a nivells baixos, desenvolupament baroclí;processos diabàtics; el mar; efectes topogràfics; baixa tèrmica; fluxes de calor superficials i les condicions atmosfèriques de l'entorn.S'ha verificat el comportament quasi-tropical dels medicans, com a mescla de la interaciómar-aire i l'existència d'una anomalia de nivells alts, amb una evolució diferent a la delshuracans. S'ha observat l'impacte en les simulacions de medicanes d'assimilar informacióde satèl·lit i de descàrregues elèctriques. S'han desenvolupat millores o nous usos d'algunestècniques emprades: quantificació energètica de la modificació derivada de la inversióde vorticitat potencial, l'ús lagrangià de la separació de factors, modificacions a parts delMM5.