The objective of this study is to conduct a marketing mix modeling to measure the effectiveness of past marketing activities on the product sales using a time-varying effect model (TVEM) approach. The longitudinal intensive data for this study has come from a large ice cream manufacturer in USA. Traditionally, static regression models have been used to measure the effectiveness of marketing mix variables to predict sales. And, these models used to find the time independent effect of the covariate on the dependent variable. On the other hand, a dynamic model such as time-varying effect model takes time into consideration. Researchers can model the changes in the relationship between dependent and independent variables over time using time-varying effect model. This is the first study, where a time-varying effect model approach has been used to measure the effectiveness of marketing mix elements in the ice cream industry. In addition, we have compared the predictive validity of both static and dynamic models using this data set.

O planejamento de produção é um elemento essencial para as empresas, pois permite definir os volumes a serem produzidos, conforme a estimativa de demanda e a capacidade produtiva disponível. Este trabalho contribui para o planejamento da produção, integrando variáveis e parâmetros que podem ajudar na maximização do resultado econômico das organizações. Esta dissertação apresenta três objetivos principais relacionados a esse tema: (i) identificar os problemas e as variáveis que precisam ser analisadas no desenvolvimento de métodos que se adéquam às necessidades das áreas envolvidas; (ii) desenvolver algoritmo para integrar as variáveis identificadas e os dados empresariais, de forma a viabilizar a aplicação do modelo, baseado em programação matemática e distribuições de probabilidade; (iii) aplicar os modelos propostos, a fim de avaliar sua utilidade e discutir os resultados obtidos. O estudo realizado revela a importância do uso de métodos formais de planejamento da produção integrados à definição do preço do produto. A definição de preços ou volumes de produção diferente dos valores ótimos pode afetar substancialmente o lucro global do sistema produtivo. / Production planning is an essential tool for companies, since it establishes the volumes to be produced, according to estimated demand and available production capacity. This work contributes with production planning field by integrating variables and parameters that impact the economic results of the organizations. This study presents three main objectives: (i) identification of issues and variables that need to be analyzed to develop methods suited to the needs of the areas involved, (ii) development of algorithms to integrate the identified variables and business data, in order to enable the application of the model, based on mathematical programming and probability distributions, (iii) application of the proposed models to evaluate their usefulness and discuss results. The study reveals the importance of using production planning formal methods that integrate products’ prices. The establishment of prices or production volumes different from optimum values may substantially affect production system global profit.

Submitted by Maria Medeiros (maria.dilva1@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-07-17T11:24:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JOÃO VIRGILIO FELIPE LIMA - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGECA) 2008.pdf: 1580123 bytes, checksum: 646e6481713a3034daf096d2a8ef020c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-17T11:24:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JOÃO VIRGILIO FELIPE LIMA - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGECA) 2008.pdf: 1580123 bytes, checksum: 646e6481713a3034daf096d2a8ef020c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-07-09 / Capes / A água, até bem pouco tempo, era considerada um recurso livre da natureza e para qualquer que fosse a demanda sobre ela, esta poderia ser suprida, indefinidamente. Porém, o desenvolvimento econômico, industrial e social, ligado ao aumento da poluição industrial e os problemas decorrentes da falta de saneamento e abastecimento de água contribuiu para a formação de uma consciência mais adequada à realidade, não existindo dúvidas de que deve haver uma forma eficaz de controle do uso da água. A Lei Federal 9.433/97 que instituiu a Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos e criou o Sistema Nacional de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos traz como fundamento que a água é um bem de domínio público, dotado de valor econômico. Ela prevê a gestão integrada e tem dentre seus instrumentos a cobrança pelo uso da água bruta. O objetivo desta pesquisa é levantar funções de demanda ordinária e a partir das mesmas, estabelecer a elasticidade-preço para cada um dos usuários e as reduções de benefícios resultantes de possíveis exigências de diminuição da carga poluidora. A Bacia Hidrográfica do rio Pirapama (em Pernambuco) e seu setor sucro-alcooleiro foram selecionados como caso de estudo. Os resultados obtidos indicam um alto potencial poluidor oriundo principalmente da vinhaça, efluente gerado no processo de fabricação do álcool e aguardente, e uma série de perda de benefícios quando são incorporadas aos custos privados às externalidades provocadas aos demais usuários. / The water, until recently, was considered a free resource of nature and whatever the demand about it, this could be supplied indefinitely. However, the economic, industrial and social development, related to increased industrial pollution and the problems arising from poor sanitation and water supply contributed to the formation of more adequate awareness to reality. There is no doubt that there must be an effective way to control water use. The Federal Law 9.433/97 established the National Water Resources Policy and created the National System of Water Resources Management. It defines water as a public good with economic value. The Law defined an integrated water resources management. It has among its instruments, charging for the use of raw water. The objective of this research was to get ordinary demand functions and from them, the price elasticity for each of water user and the reductions of benefits resulting from possible demands for reduction of pollution load. Pirapama River Basin (Pernambuco State, Brazil) and its sugarcane industry were selected as case study. The results indicate a high potential pollutant derived mainly from vinasse effluent generated in the manufacturing process of alcohol and spirits, and a number of loss of benefits when incorporated into private costs to externalities caused to other users.

O planejamento de produção é um elemento essencial para as empresas, pois permite definir os volumes a serem produzidos, conforme a estimativa de demanda e a capacidade produtiva disponível. Este trabalho contribui para o planejamento da produção, integrando variáveis e parâmetros que podem ajudar na maximização do resultado econômico das organizações. Esta dissertação apresenta três objetivos principais relacionados a esse tema: (i) identificar os problemas e as variáveis que precisam ser analisadas no desenvolvimento de métodos que se adéquam às necessidades das áreas envolvidas; (ii) desenvolver algoritmo para integrar as variáveis identificadas e os dados empresariais, de forma a viabilizar a aplicação do modelo, baseado em programação matemática e distribuições de probabilidade; (iii) aplicar os modelos propostos, a fim de avaliar sua utilidade e discutir os resultados obtidos. O estudo realizado revela a importância do uso de métodos formais de planejamento da produção integrados à definição do preço do produto. A definição de preços ou volumes de produção diferente dos valores ótimos pode afetar substancialmente o lucro global do sistema produtivo. / Production planning is an essential tool for companies, since it establishes the volumes to be produced, according to estimated demand and available production capacity. This work contributes with production planning field by integrating variables and parameters that impact the economic results of the organizations. This study presents three main objectives: (i) identification of issues and variables that need to be analyzed to develop methods suited to the needs of the areas involved, (ii) development of algorithms to integrate the identified variables and business data, in order to enable the application of the model, based on mathematical programming and probability distributions, (iii) application of the proposed models to evaluate their usefulness and discuss results. The study reveals the importance of using production planning formal methods that integrate products’ prices. The establishment of prices or production volumes different from optimum values may substantially affect production system global profit.

O planejamento de produção é um elemento essencial para as empresas, pois permite definir os volumes a serem produzidos, conforme a estimativa de demanda e a capacidade produtiva disponível. Este trabalho contribui para o planejamento da produção, integrando variáveis e parâmetros que podem ajudar na maximização do resultado econômico das organizações. Esta dissertação apresenta três objetivos principais relacionados a esse tema: (i) identificar os problemas e as variáveis que precisam ser analisadas no desenvolvimento de métodos que se adéquam às necessidades das áreas envolvidas; (ii) desenvolver algoritmo para integrar as variáveis identificadas e os dados empresariais, de forma a viabilizar a aplicação do modelo, baseado em programação matemática e distribuições de probabilidade; (iii) aplicar os modelos propostos, a fim de avaliar sua utilidade e discutir os resultados obtidos. O estudo realizado revela a importância do uso de métodos formais de planejamento da produção integrados à definição do preço do produto. A definição de preços ou volumes de produção diferente dos valores ótimos pode afetar substancialmente o lucro global do sistema produtivo. / Production planning is an essential tool for companies, since it establishes the volumes to be produced, according to estimated demand and available production capacity. This work contributes with production planning field by integrating variables and parameters that impact the economic results of the organizations. This study presents three main objectives: (i) identification of issues and variables that need to be analyzed to develop methods suited to the needs of the areas involved, (ii) development of algorithms to integrate the identified variables and business data, in order to enable the application of the model, based on mathematical programming and probability distributions, (iii) application of the proposed models to evaluate their usefulness and discuss results. The study reveals the importance of using production planning formal methods that integrate products’ prices. The establishment of prices or production volumes different from optimum values may substantially affect production system global profit.

My thesis is aiming to answer the question what are the impacts of alcohol regulative legislation (especially the excise tax) on demand for it. The theoretical part presents various opinions and conclusions regarding the regulatory measures (apart from others Stigler, 1975) and the impact of alcohol price change on the demand for it (Becker, 1988 and his successors). Further on, individual regulatory measures, their development in time and basic reasoning for introducing of the measures are introduced in the work. In its analytical part, the thesis deals with comparison of states with different alcohol consumption levels and with different regulatory measures in effect; the work thus divides the EU-countries to groups of different traditions and level of control (the Global Alcohol Policy Report by WHO is used as a source of information in this regard). The data available for the selected countries are then subject to research regarding statistical relevance of the excise tax - consumption relation. The paper thus answers a question of alcohol demand elasticity and also the question of the differences in the consumption attributes in various cultural and regulatory conditions. As a source of the relevant information, analytical parts of OECD, WHO and CSU (Czech Statistical Office) databases are used in the paper.

Understanding how car travel and ownership respond to income and fuel prices, and how that response varies between households is crucial for car use policies and forecasts. This thesis, consisting of two papers, aims to investigate this by estimating the intemporal income and fuel price elasticities of car use using micro registry panel data on all Swedish households from 1998 to 2018. In Paper I, the income and fuel price elasticities of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) is estimated for all Swedish households using a linear fixed effects model. In order to investigate how different groups respond, the elasticities are estimated by income group and municipality type. The effect of income and fuel prices on VKT is largest in the middle of the income distribution but is relatively stable across municipality types. The effect of fuel prices on VKT is largest in densely populated municipalities compared to rural municipalities. Moreover, it is shown that the income elasticity is underestimated if income variable is misspecified. Paper II utilises a discrete-continuous model accounting for the effect of income and fuel prices on car ownership. It is shown that income impacts car ownership and VKT conditional on car ownership of similar magnitude, while fuel prices primarily impact VKT conditional on car ownership. Furthermore, we also estimate the model on six partially overlapping sample periods and find that the income elasticity has decreased over time, while the absolute fuel price elasticity increased up until the early 2010s and decreased thereafter. / <p>2022-10-13: ISBN (PDF) has been added in the E-version.</p>

Understanding how car travel and ownership respond to income and fuel prices, and how that response varies between households is crucial for car use policies and forecasts. This thesis, consisting of two papers, aims to investigate this by estimating the intemporal income and fuel price elasticities of car use using micro registry panel data on all Swedish households from 1998 to 2018. In Paper I, the income and fuel price elasticities of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) is estimated for all Swedish households using a linear fixed effects model. In order to investigate how different groups respond, the elasticities are estimated by income group and municipality type. The effect of income and fuel prices on VKT is largest in the middle of the income distribution but is relatively stable across municipality types. The effect of fuel prices on VKT is largest in densely populated municipalities compared to rural municipalities. Moreover, it is shown that the income elasticity is underestimated if income variable is misspecified. Paper II utilises a discrete-continuous model accounting for the effect of income and fuel prices on car ownership. It is shown that income impacts car ownership and VKT conditional on car ownership of similar magnitude, while fuel prices primarily impact VKT conditional on car ownership. Furthermore, we also estimate the model on six partially overlapping sample periods and find that the income elasticity has decreased over time, while the absolute fuel price elasticity increased up until the early 2010s and decreased thereafter.

The housing market is one of the most important markets for many economic agents. Large differences in the local market across Sweden suggest regional heterogeneity, however. This study aims to answer if the price and income elasticities of demand for small houses vary between different types of Swedish municipalities. This answer is explored in the light of the central place theory and location theory to see if they follow a hierarchal structure across space. To test this empirically, the 290 municipalities were grouped based on the Swedish Association of Local Authority and Regions’ definitions and tested group-wise using a log-log fixed-effect average hedonic price model using data for 2013-2020. The main findings indicate some differences in the estimates of price and income elasticities between different types of municipalities, but mixing results whether they follow a hierarchal relationship. The conclusions changes depending on which scale one measure, which indicate how local the housing market is.

This study uses logistic regression to estimate the probability of choosing the brand-name drug despite the presence of cheaper generics given patient and drug characteristics in the Czech pharmaceutical market in the period 2009-2013. Results of the analysis may help guide policies to decrease pharmaceutical costs. In order to motivate people who are more likely to choose the original version of drug, policy makers may impose higher copayments and lower subsidies on the original drugs which they use. Additionally, two supplementary analyses were applied to sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical market: antihypertensive drugs and antibiotics. Fixed effects logistic regression is employed to test the robustness of the results.