In the master thesis the issue of bayesian approach to stochastic reserving is solved. Reserving problem is very discussed in insurance industry. The text introduces the basic actuarial notation and terminology and explains the bayesian inference in statistics and estimation. The main part of the thesis is framed by the description of the particular bayesian models. It is focused on the derivation of estimators for the reserves and ultimate claims. The aim of the thesis is to show the practical uses of the models and the relations between them. For this purpose the methods are applied on a real data set. Obtained results are summarized in tables and the comparison of the methods is provided. Finally the impact of a prior distribution on the resulting reserves is showed. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Health Sciences in Emergency Medical Care, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2016. / Purpose Emergency care education and training in South Africa is experiencing an important transformation period, involving migration from short course based training to a newly proposed, formalised, three-tier qualification system, aligned with the Higher Education Sub-framework. Many existing and experienced holders of short course emergency care certificates face the challenge of gaining access to formal emergency care programmes without meeting the minimum entry requirements. Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) will therefore become one of the key strategies for planned migration of short course graduates into professional learning programmes. However, the research reports on RPL practice in the field of emergency care are scarce. Hence, valuable lessons about RPL in emergency care programmes are missed. The purpose of this study is to explore the efficacy of RPL practice within the National Certificate: Emergency Care (NCEC) Programme in the Western Cape, through the experience of ambulance emergency assistants, who applied for RPL on the Programme and the paramedic educators involved in the facilitation and RPL assessment on the NCEC Programme. Methodology The design of this descriptive exploratory study was qualitative, and was set in the interpretative paradigm using a case study mode of inquiry. The qualitative data was collected through semi-structured focus groups, individual interviews, and document analysis. The participants were from Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT), Department of Emergency Medical Sciences, and the Western Cape Government College of Emergency Care (WCCEC). Collected data was interpreted by means of thematic analysis, set against the context of the study objectives and the theoretical framework. Finding The study revealed three main themes related to RPL efficacy in the NCEC Programme. These included the need for RPL training for educators involved in RPL, lack of support and guidance for RPL assessors and participants, and the need for careful selection of RPL assessment methods. The document analysis highlighted the gap between a comprehensive and sound RPL policy document and the practical implementation of these policies. Conclusion and Recommendations The emergency care field requires greater awareness and information on RPL processes, principles, assessments, and requirements. The higher education institutions, as the sole providers of the newly proposed formal emergency care programmes need to consider building capacity for RPL by means of training and dedicating academic staff to RPL, and developing comprehensive RPL policies, in collaboration with relevant stakeholders in the field. RPL assessment methods need to be more diverse and tailored to the individual RPL claimants. Further research on RPL will ensure a fair, social inclusive and redressing process during the planned migration of emergency care education and training. / M

Several machine learning applications use classifiers as a way of quantifying the prevalence of positive class labels in a target dataset, a task named quantification. For instance, a naive way of determining what proportion of positive reviews about given product in the Facebook with no labeled reviews is to (i) train a classifier based on Google Shopping reviews to predict whether a user likes a product given its review, and then (ii) apply this classifier to Facebook posts about that product. Unfortunately, it is well known that such a two-step approach, named Classify and Count, fails because of data set shift, and thus several improvements have been recently proposed under an assumption named prior shift. However, these methods only explore the relationship between the covariates and the response via classifiers and none of them take advantage of the fact that one often has access to a few labeled samples in the target set. Moreover, the literature lacks in approaches that can handle a target population that varies with another covariate; for instance: How to accurately estimate how the proportion of new posts or new webpages in favor of a political candidate varies in time? We propose novel methods that fill these important gaps and compare them using both real and artificial datasets. Finally, we provide a theoretical analysis of the methods. / Muitas aplicações de aprendizado de máquina usam classificadores para determinar a prevalência da classe positiva em um conjunto de dados de interesse, uma tarefa denominada quantificação. Por exemplo, uma maneira ingênua de determinar qual a proporção de postagens positivas sobre um determinado protuto no Facebook sem ter resenhas rotuladas é (i) treinar um classificador baseado em resenhas do Google Shopping para prever se um usuário gosta de um produto qualquer, e então (ii) aplicar esse classificador às postagens do Facebook relacionados ao produtos de interesse. Infelizmente, é sabido que essa técnica de dois passos, denominada classificar e contar, falha por não levar em conta a mudança de domínio. Assim, várias melhorias vêm sendo feitas recentemente sob uma suposição denominada prior shift. Entretanto, estes métodos exploram a relação entre as covariáveis apenas via classificadores e nenhum deles aproveitam o fato de que, em algumas situações, podemos rotular algumas amostras do conjunto de dados de interesse. Além disso, a literatura carece de abordagens que possam lidar com uma população-alvo que varia com outra covariável; por exemplo: Como estimar precisamente como a proporção de novas postagens ou páginas web a favor de um candidato político varia com o tempo? Nós propomos novos métodos que preenchem essas lacunas importantes e os comparamos utilizando conjuntos de dados reais e similados. Finalmente, nós fornecemos uma análise teórica dos métodos propostos.

El trabajo de investigación aborda una perspectiva multidisciplinaria que se enfoca en generar una herramienta de comunicación, abordando temas importantes como son el gobierno móvil, la tecnología y el Estado. Gobierno móvil es un concepto que ha tomado fuerza en muchos países en desarrollo, muchos de estos descritos en casos de éxito en países donde el uso de este tipo de plataformas aportó en el desarrollo de políticas de Estado, siendo una herramienta versátil y útil en diversos campos. Luego de un análisis de la situación actual de los Pueblos Indígenas y el proceso de Consulta Previa en el Perú, nuestro trabajo de investigación propone el uso de aplicaciones móviles que colaboren con las políticas del Estado, lo que está alineado al Plan Bicentenario de nuestro país. Así, de esta manera contribuir con un aporte al Estado en la implementación de Gobierno Móvil como una herramienta que refuerza la inclusión, posibilitando el acceso del ciudadano de todas partes del Perú a los programas y planes de apoyo social a cargo del Estado. / The research work addresses a multidisciplinary perspective that focuses on generating a communication tool, addressing important issues such as mobile government, technology and the State. Mobile government is a concept that has taken hold in many developing countries, many of these described in successful cases in countries where the use of this type of platforms contributed to the development of State policies, being a versatile and useful tool in various fields After an analysis of the current situation of Indigenous Peoples and the process of Prior Consultation in Peru, our research work proposes the use of mobile applications that collaborate with State policies, which is aligned with the Bicentennial Plan of our country . Thus, in this way contribute with a contribution to the State in the implementation of Mobile Government as a tool that reinforces the inclusion, making possible the access of the citizen of all parts of Peru to the programs and social support plans in charge of the State. / Trabajo de investigación

Neste estudo foi avaliado o efeito da restrição de estabilidade imposta por uma tarefa voluntária sobre a adaptação de respostas posturais reativas a perturbações externas em jovens, idosos sadios e idosos com doença de Parkinson (DP). No Experimento 1 participantes com DP e idosos sadios foram perturbados por meio de translação posterior da superfície de apoio, enquanto executavam duas versões de uma tarefa voluntária: segurando uma bandeja com um cilindro apoiado em sua base (BR) ou em seu lado circular (AR). A avaliação foi feita por meio de blocos alternados de baixa e alta restrição. Os resultados indicaram que ambos os grupos mostram menor velocidade da bandeja no contexto de AR em comparação ao de BR. A latência de resposta postural foi maior no contexto de AR apenas para indivíduos sadios. Indivíduos sadios apresentaram diferentes padrões de coordenação ombro-quadril em função da restrição da tarefa, enquanto idosos com DP apresentaram um padrão relativamente invariável. Estes resultados sugerem que a doença de Parkinson prejudica a capacidade de adaptar as respostas posturais às exigências impostas por uma tarefa voluntária. O Experimento 2 teve como objetivo comparar as respostas posturais reativas entre jovens e idosos sadios. O mesmo paradigma do Experimento 1, com exceção do tipo de perturbação, foi utilizado no Experimento 2. Ambos os grupos diminuíram a velocidade da bandeja no contexto de AR em comparação ao contexto de BR. Os resultados mais expressivos mostraram que, enquanto os jovens adaptaram a latência muscular, magnitude muscular, nível de coativação muscular e coordenação interarticular de acordo com a sequência, os idosos foram mais sensíveis ao contexto atual de restrição da tarefa voluntária. Estes resultados sugerem que o envelhecimento leva à mudança de uma adaptação mais generalizada para uma mais específica das respostas posturais reativas / This study assessed the effect of stability constraints imposed by a voluntary task on the adaptation of postural responses to an external perturbation in healthy adults and in elderly individuals with Parkinsons disease (PD). In Experiment 1 subjects with PD and age-matched controls were perturbed through a backward translation of the support surface while standing and performing two versions of a voluntary task: holding a tray with a cylinder placed with the flat side down (LC) or with the rolling round side down (HC). Participants performed alternating blocks of low and high constraint trials. Parkinsons disease participants accomplished the voluntary task as well as controls, showing slower tray velocity in the high, as compared with the low, constraint context. Latency of postural responses was longer in the high constraint context only for control subjects. Control subjects presented different patterns of hip-shoulder coordination as a function of task constraint, whereas PD subjects had a relatively invariable pattern. These results suggest that Parkinsons disease impairs the capacity to adapt postural responses to constraints imposed by a voluntary task. Experiment 2 aimed at comparing postural reactive responses between healthy young and elderly individuals in response to unexpected load release. Results showed that while the young group adapted muscular latency, muscular magnitude, coactivation level and interjoint coordination according to task-constraint sequence, the elderly group was more sensitive to the current context of voluntary task constraint. These results suggest that aging lead to more specific postural reactive responses adaptation

As melhorias alcançadas na Educação através do uso das tecnologias de informação e comunicação são inegáveis. Entretanto, os avanços em direção a um ensino personalizado e direcionado às preferências, ao nivelamento (saneamento das dificuldades e pré-requisitos de conteúdo) e aos interesses dos estudantes são pequenos. Desta forma, através da identificação dos conhecimentos prévios dos alunos, bem como dos conteúdos (conceituais) buscou-se aprimorar o processo de ensino para que cada aluno alcance, a seu modo (de forma personalizada) o aprendizado e possa avançar na disciplina/ano em questão. Como é humanamente impossível um professor conhecer as características e dificuldades de conteúdo de todos os seus alunos, é interessante que o ambiente virtual que apoia o professor possa auxiliar para um atendimento mais personalizado, permitindo que o aluno interaja no seu próprio ritmo de estudo, acesse os conteúdos necessários ou aprofunde-se em algum conteúdo que ele já domine. Esta tese propõe um método de uso das ferramentas disponíveis de ambientes virtuais, principalmente do MOODLE, para alcançar a personalização do ensino e conduzir o aluno em sua própria trajetória individual rumo ao aprendizado significativo, sanando dificuldades de conteúdo. Seguindo o objetivo de melhorar a qualidade do ensino sem necessidade de grade investimento de desenvolvimento de ambiente nem aporte financeiro. Para validar o método foi realizado um projeto piloto mais dois experimentos, todos no Colégio Militar de Porto Alegre que totalizaram a participação de 256 alunos. Os resultados demonstraram a viabilidade do método, medido através da melhora nas notas (análise quantitativa) e da análise qualitativa dos dados e dos questionários (respondidos pelos alunos e professores). Destaca-se como vantagem educacional o desenvolvimento do método que pode ser aplicado a qualquer disciplina ou modelo de ensino e como vantagem computacional o uso do MOODLE para personalizar o ensino. / The use of information and communication technologies made undeniable advances in education. However, advances towards personalized learning and directed to the preferences, the leveling (improvement of difficulties and prerequisites) and to the interests of students are small yet. Thus, it is intended, by identifying the students' prior knowledge and content (conceptual) to improve the process so that each student reach, at their mode (personalized) the learning and make progress in discipline/year in question. We know that is humanly impossible for a teacher to know the characteristics and difficulties of content of all his students. So, the virtual environment that supports the teacher should have the flexibility to customize interactions with each student, which allows the student to interact at his/her own study pace, access the necessary content or deepen in some content that he/she has mastered. This thesis proposes a method for using the available virtual environments tools, especially the MOODLE, to achieve the personalization of teaching and to lead the student in his own individual trajectory toward meaningful learning, healing content difficulties. Following the objective of improving the quality of education without the need for large investment in environmental development or financial contribution. To validate the method was carried out a pilot project plus two experiments, all occurred at Military College of Porto Alegre, with a total of 256 students. The results showed the viability of the method, measured by the improvement in grades (quantitative analysis) and the qualitative analysis of data and questionnaires (answered by students and teachers). It is highlighted as an educational advantage, the development of the method that can be applied to any discipline or teaching model and as computational advantage, the use of MOODLE to customize teaching.

Orientador: Anna Christina Bentes da Silva / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Estudos da Linguagem / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-11T21:17:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Penna_MariaAngelicadeOliveira_D.pdf: 13066850 bytes, checksum: 5b54ffb69d513e282115281f7e300ae8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Neste texto, proponho uma reflexão sobre a produtividade de mesclar as noções de estilo, concebido sob a perspectiva bakhtiniana proposta por Coupland (2001) e ethos prévio, com base em Ruth Amossy (2005), para a ativação de múltiplas dimensões em uma análise estilística de caráter textual-discursivo, uma vez que essas noções parecem complementares entre si e emergem de operações estratégicas de e sobre vozes sociais, manifestas textualmente Para pensar o estilo, nos texto, importo da Sociolinguística, a noção de Coupland (2001), para quem o estilo, na fala, configura-se como manejo de personas: projeções contínuas de versões do self [entendido como uma construção de natureza sociointeracional], complementares ou compatíveis com a expectativa da audiência. O corpus compõe-se de peças publicitárias da Coca-cola Brasil veiculadas em jornais e revistas direcionados a um público A e B [Jornal Folha de São Paulo; Revista Veja; Revista Língua Portuguesa]. São peças que evidenciam atitudes positivas da empresa e que, além de agregarem valor à marca, constroem, a partir de uma avaliação prévia da expectativa da audiência, um ethos socialmente responsável. A hipótese é de que o estilo, concebido como manipulação estratégica das vozes da heteroglossia, tira partido de um ethos [prévio] de enunciador pressuposto na expectativa da audiência e constroi uma imagem de si [ethos] em consonância com essa expectativa, conferindo eficácia ao discurso. Observei que a publicidade da Coca-cola Brasil vende um efeito de comunhão de valores e adesão a projetos, mais que produtos - o que não seria instigante se a marca não se confundisse, no imaginário social, com o refrigerante que prototipicamente a representa, sobre o qual recaem discursos que apontam para uma direção contrária à da sustentabilidade. Meu interesse, ao analisar peças da Coca-cola Brasil, não está nas verdades que as peças possam ou não veicular; mas no como a autoria responsável pelo marketing opera com e sobre vozes sociais e como essa operação se manifesta organicamente nos textos. O pressuposto é de que a língua se configura como prática/ ação social e que essa configuração se materializa nos discursos/textos pela forma singular de operar sobre as vozes sociais e de manipulá-las estrategicamente para produzir sentidos nos encontros sociais. O embasamento para a proposta de articulação entre estilo e ethos prévio é propiciado por categorias filosóficas bakhtinianas, a saber, as noções de heteroglossia e dialogismo / Abstract: In this text, I propose a reflection about the productivity of blending the notions of style, conceived under the Bakhtinian perspective proposed by Coupland (2001), and prior ethos, based on Ruth Amossy (2005), for the activation of multiple dimensions within an stylistic analysis which has a textual-discursive nature, since the subject discussed are the notions that seem to complement each other and emerge from strategic manipulations of and over social voices, textually manifested. To reflect about the style, within the text, I import from Sociolinguistic, the notion of Coupland (2001), to whom the style, within the speech, configures itself as a persona management: continuous projections of "self" versions (understood as a construction which has a sociointerational nature), complementary or compatible with the audience's expectation. The corpus is composed of Coca-Cola Brazil's advertising vehiculated by newspapers and magazines addressed to the public A and B [Folha de Sao Paulo News; Veja Magazine; Lingua Portuguesa Magazine]. They are ads which evidence the institution's positive attitudes and which, besides its aggregation of value to the brand, built an ethos socially responsible, considering a previous evaluation of the audience's expectations. The hypothesis is that the style, conceived as a strategic manipulation of heteroglossia's voices, takes advantage of an enunciator's ethos (prior) assumed in the audience's expectation, and creates an image of self (ethos), in consonance with this expectation, giving effectiveness to the speech. I have observed that Coca-Cola Brazil's advertisement sells an effect of values' communion and adhesion to projects, more than products - what would not be instigative if the brand was not confounded, in the social imaginary, with the soft drink which represents it prototypically and over which fall speeches that point towards a direction in contrast to the sustainability. My interest, when analyzing the ads of Coca-Cola Brazil, is not in the truths that the ads can or cannot communicate; but in how the authorship, responsible for the marketing, works with and over social voices and how this production manifests itself organically in the texts. The assumed idea is that the language configures itself as a social practice/action and that this configuration gets materialized in the speeches/texts through the particular way of working with social voices and of manipulating them strategically to generate senses at social meetings / Doutorado / Linguistica / Doutor em Linguística

Thesis ( M.A. (English Studies) --University of Limpopo, 2014 / Research shows that successful readers make use of prior knowledge. This is supported by schemata theory (Herczog & Porter, 2012; Xigo-hui, Jun & Wei-hua, 2007; Zhang 1993). In this study, the researcher intended to increase the schema of the selected sample and test the theorem. Two groups were selected as samples comprising an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group had the advantage of being exposed to a topic over a month and on the day of the test the two groups were combined and the results from the test were analysed. The outcomes showed that the experimental group out-performed the control group proving that prior knowledge increases chances of comprehension. In the initial test both groups had performed poorly. Many learners in the experimental group would have performed better if they could comprehend the English language. The students who used their schema on the experimental group did better than those who did not. / the National Research Foundation

This conceptual paper outlines the descriptive theoretical foundations or kernel theories for designing an information and communication technology (ICT) tool to assess professional competences in the Austrian trade and craft sector. Upon completion, the ICT-tool serves as a boundary object in which applicants and assessors can interact. While this paper consists of a literature review and conceptual discussion, the overall project is methodologically placed within a multidisciplinary design-science paradigm. Design science scaffolds and structures the development of a theoretical model, the generation of assessment-items and the ICT-tool itself. This paper discusses the necessary descriptive knowledge or kernel theories on which the design of the ICT-tool rests. First, we describe the validation of prior learning - a process advocated by the European Union to make professional competences visible. Second, we describe the process how professional competences come about: through formal, non-formal and informal learning. Subsequently, we outline a knowledge-driven discourse on professional competences and discuss how different definitions of professional competence afford different approaches for its assessment. By presenting a use-case, we outline how the ICT-tool may guide applicants and assessors through this process.

Researchers and educators have always strived for creating appropriate instructional tools and resources that help students to acquire knowledge. Animated pedagogical agents (APAs) embedded within multimedia learning settings are one of the emerging technologies that provide a powerful and supportive learning environment. According to previous studies, APAs can effectively promote learning and support social interaction with learners (Johnson & Lester, 2016; Lane, 2016). However, APAs also may cause cognitive load without providing motivational benefits in some cases and distract learners during the learning process. In other words, the results of previous studies on APAs do not provide enough evidence to argue that APA may be able to decrease cognitive load, promote motivational effects, or facilitate meaningful learning. The lack of enough evidence in the research findings seems to be variable depending upon the APA’s features, the learners, and the difficulty of the learning materials (Schroeder & Adesope, 2014). By focusing on these factors, this study provided new considerations related to embedding an APA’s role that facilitates “Word Parts” for adult students who speak English as a Second Language (ESL) with concentrating on their cognition, motivation, and vocabulary acquisition. Presenting two APA’s roles (expert model and peer model) differently influenced ESL learners’ motivation, specifically their satisfaction feelings. In addition, ESL learners’ prior knowledge affected their intrinsic and extraneous cognitive load, motivation, and vocabulary acquisition. The two different APA’s roles and their effects on ESL learners’ perceptions and learning outcomes serve as a media comparison research. Further, examining APA as a model to teach ESL students vocabulary acquisition skills serves a Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL) research.