Na prática de fundações por estacas helicoidais submetidas a esforços de tração (também conhecidas como ancoragens helicoidais) frequentemente são observadas discrepâncias entre valores de capacidade de carga previstos por métodos teóricos e medidos em provas de carga. Entre outros fatores, estas diferenças ocorrem pelo fato de nenhum dos métodos teóricos existentes considerarem adequadamente o efeito da instalação no comportamento deste tipo de ancoragem. Durante a penetração por rotação das hélices da estaca/ancoragem no terreno, os parâmetros de resistência e de rigidez do solo penetrado, e as tensões radiais em torno da estaca são modificados. O nível de degradação do solo que suportará as cargas aplicadas na ancoragem é dependente do tipo e características do solo, e do número e geometria das hélices. Diante deste cenário de incertezas provenientes do efeito da instalação, duas distintas abordagens probabilísticas são apresentadas nesta dissertação. A primeira abordagem tem o intuito de verificar o efeito da variabilidade de distintas variáveis influentes no comportamento de ancoragens helicoidais. Para este fim, foi utilizado o método de expansão em Polinômio de Caos, baseado na modelagem numérica de ancoragens helicoidais em areia, calibrada com os resultados medidos em modelos testados em centrifuga. Foi verificado nesta parte o nível de influência de cada parâmetro de entrada do solo no comportamento carga x deslocamento da ancoragem. No segundo enfoque, foi proposto e avaliado um modelo probabilístico para simular a curva carga x deslocamento, obtida em provas de carga. Nesta parte, foi realizada uma análise de confiabilidade para verificação do estado limite de serviço de ancoragens helicoidais baseada em resultados de provas de carga executadas no Brasil. São também apresentadas nesta análise as incertezas provenientes da variabilidade do fator de torque utilizado na verificação da capacidade de carga durante a instalação da ancoragem. / Discrepancies between predicted and measured results of uplift capacity of helical piles (or helical anchors) have been commonly observed in the practical experience. Among other factors, these differences occur because the existing theoretical methods do not consider adequately the installation effect on the behavior of this type of anchor. During the anchor installation, the penetration by rotation of the helical plates into the ground modifies the soil strength and stiffness parameters, and the radial stresses around the pile. The degradation degree of the soil penetrated is dependent on the type and characteristics of the soil, and also on the number and geometry of helices. Against this background of uncertainty due to the installation effect, two different probabilistic approaches are presented in this dissertation. The first approach is used to verify the effect of the variability of different influential variables on the behavior of helical anchors. For this purpose, the probabilistic method named Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion was used, based on the numerical modeling of helical anchors in sand, calibrated with measured results obtained from reduced models tested in centrifuge. As a result, the level of influence of each soil input parameter on the anchor load-displacement behavior is presented. In the second approach, a probabilistic model to simulate the load-displacement curve obtained in load tests was proposed and evaluated. For this part, a reliability analysis was performed to check the serviceability limit state of helical anchors, based on the results of field load tests performed in Brazil. In addition, the uncertainties arising from the variability of the torque factor were evaluated. The torque factor is frequently used to verify the uplift capacity of helical anchors during installation.

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é apresentar um modelo de análise probabilística do comportamento ao longo do tempo de estruturas de concreto. Para isso, é realizada a análise probabilística em conjunto com análise numérica. A análise numérica é realizada através de um programa computacional, baseado no método dos elementos finitos, que considera o comportamento não-linear e dependente do tempo dos materiais, assim como o processo evolutivo da construção. Para determinar o efeito das incertezas dos parâmetros é realizada uma análise probabilística, utilizando o método de amostragem por hipercubo latino. O modelo apresentado pode ser aplicado para a análise probabilística do comportamento ao longo do tempo das estruturas de concreto em geral. No entanto, foi aplicado na análise das flechas diferidas de lajes pré-moldadas formadas por vigotas com armação treliçada. Com esta análise, pôde-se propor um coeficiente multiplicador das flechas imediatas para a avaliação das flechas diferidas no tempo. O coeficiente multiplicador obtido para as lajes pré-moldadas formadas por vigotas com armação treliçada pode alcançar valores muito superiores ao fator 'alfa'f recomendado pela NBR 6118 (2003) para o caso de vigas de concreto armado. / The goal of this research is to present a probabilistic analysis model of the long-term behavior of concrete structures. For that, the probabilistic analysis is carried out together with numerical analysis. The numerical analysis is carried out using a software based on the finite element method that takes into account the nonlinear and time dependent behavior of the materials, as well as the evolutionary construction process. A probabilistic analysis is carried out in order to determine the effects of the uncertainties of the parameters, using latin hypercube sampling method. The presented model can be applied in the probabilistic analysis of the long-term behavior of concrete structures in general. However, it was applied in the analysis of the long-term deflections of precast slabs made by joist with lattice reinforcement. By this analysis, a multiplier coefficient of immediate deflections to evaluate long-term deflections could be proposed. The multiplier coefficient obtained for precast slabs made by joist with lattice reinforcement can reach values much higher than the factor 'alfa'f recommended by NBR 6118 (2003) for the case of reinforced concrete beams.

Dissertação(mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Oceânica, Escola de Engenharia, 2009. / Submitted by Lilian M. Silva (lilianmadeirasilva@hotmail.com) on 2013-04-20T22:47:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Estudo probabilístico da resistência à compressão e da resistência à tração na flexão dos concretos utilizados na construção do dique seco do estaleiro Rio Grande, No Superporto, Em.pdf: 10848965 bytes, checksum: 809b5f8cbee32e8c634ff304349206bb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Bruna Vieira(bruninha_vieira@ibest.com.br) on 2013-06-04T16:19:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Estudo probabilístico da resistência à compressão e da resistência à tração na flexão dos concretos utilizados na construção do dique seco do estaleiro Rio Grande, No Superporto, Em.pdf: 10848965 bytes, checksum: 809b5f8cbee32e8c634ff304349206bb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-04T16:19:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Estudo probabilístico da resistência à compressão e da resistência à tração na flexão dos concretos utilizados na construção do dique seco do estaleiro Rio Grande, No Superporto, Em.pdf: 10848965 bytes, checksum: 809b5f8cbee32e8c634ff304349206bb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / A variação presente nos ensaios de aceitação do concreto, sobretudo a resistência, torna fundamental a utilização de uma grande quantidade de dados amostrais para estabelecer parâmetros de avaliação e calibração das normas técnicas. Distintos controles tecnológicos, metodologias de dosagem e características dos materiais, são alguns dos fatores que fazem com que o concreto tenha peculiaridades relacionadas à região do planeta onde o mesmo é produzido.O presente trabalho aplicou diversos métodos de controle e aceitação de estruturas de concreto aos resultados práticos oriundos do concreto lançado na execução do dique seco do Estaleiro Rio Grande em construção na cidade de Rio Grande - RS. Esta obra é uma importante fonte de informações sobre a resistência e o comportamento do concreto visto que, na mesma, foi empregado desde o início um rigoroso controle de qualidade; gerando dados raramente disponíveis em obras portuárias brasileiras. Foram utilizados como base para este trabalho dois traços de concreto; um com adição de fibras e fck= 35 MPa e outro com adição de sílica ativa e fck= 40 MPa. Foram realizadas comparações entre as estimativas de resistência das normas brasileira, européia e norte-americana de concreto. Realizadas análises estatísticas de modelos teóricos de distribuição de probabilidade destas resistências. Além disso, foram estabelecidas correlações entre as resistências à tração e à compressão do concreto. O incremento de resistência do concreto ao longo do tempo também foi estudado, tanto para compressão como para a tração. As análises apresentadas permitem atestar o atendimento dos concretos utilizados na execução do dique seco quanto aos requisitos estabelecidos pelas normas brasileiras de concreto. / Due to the variability in the results of the concrete acceptance tests, especially in the resistance tests, it is fundamental to use a large number of sample data to establish the assessment parameters and to calibrate the standard codes. Different technological controls, mixing methodologies and material characteristics are some of the factors that cause the concrete having peculiarities proper of the region where it is produced. The present work has applied different methodsof control and acceptance of concrete structures to the test results of the concreteused in the construction of the Estaleiro Rio Grande dry-dock, in the city of Rio Grande – RS. This construction site is an important source of information about the concrete resistance and behavior, because it was adopted, since the beginning of the construction, a rigorous quality control. This quality control produced a number oftest results that is seldom available in the Brazilian harbors construction sites. In this work two different concrete mixes were studied: first a fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) with fck = 35 MPa, and a second one with silica fume addition with fck = 40 MPa. The resistance assessment formulations of the Brazilian, European and North American standard codes were compared. A statistical analysis of best the probability distribution models for the resistance test results was made. Besides, it was determined a correlation between the concrete tensile and compressive resistances. The increasing of the concreteresistance with time was also studied to compression as well as to tension. The analyses performed have showed that both concrete mixes used in the construction of this dry-dock have attained the quality standards required by the Brazilian standard codes for concrete.

Current complex service systems are usually comprised of many other components which are often external services performing particular tasks. The quality of service (QoS) attributes such as availability, cost, response time are essential to determine usability and eciency of such system. Obviously, the QoS of such compound system is dependent on the QoS of its components. However, the QoS of each component is naturally unstable and di erent each time it is called due to many factors like network bandwidth, workload, hardware resource, etc. This will consequently make the QoS of the whole system be unstable. This uncertainty can be described and represented with probability distributions. This thesis presents an approach to calculate the QoS of the system when the probability distributions of QoS of each component are provided by service provider or derived from historical data, along with the structure of their compositions. In addition, an analyzer tool is implemented in order to predict the QoS of the given compositions and probability distributions following the proposed approach. The output of the analyzer can be used to predict the behavior of the system to be implemented and to make decisions based on the expected performance. The experimental evaluation shows that the estimation is reliable with a minimal and acceptable error measurement.

Comúnmente los estudios geotécnicos de análisis de estabilidad de taludes se realizan mediante métodos determinísticos, en los cuales se obtiene como resultado un factor de seguridad (FS) de la estructura analizada. Sin embargo, estos métodos no cuantifican la incertidumbre en las variables de entrada (parámetros de resistencia del suelo), en el análisis y tampoco muestran los detalles de las variables más influyentes en la estabilidad del talud. Es por ello los métodos probabilísticos permiten superar estos problemas. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo principal realizar el análisis de estabilidad de taludes mediante el método probabilístico Primer Orden Segundo Momento (FOSM) dos recomendaciones de aplicabilidad, que ofrecen los autores Sandroni & Sayao (1992) y Mostyn y Li (1993). Se analizó un caso común y muy importantes porque fueron claves en la realización de métodos probabilísticos en la ingeniería geotécnica. El caso, es una de las carreteras más importantes de Brasil, el cual sufrió deslizamiento 2 años después de su construcción. Se realizó el análisis probabilístico dando como resultado que los parámetros de confiabilidad de la estructura eran muy bajos y la probabilidad de rotura muy alta. Se plantea la propuesta de solución de estabilidad con una probabilidad de rotura mínima. La investigación se realizó con datos realizados en Brasil, por la cantidad de datos que requieren los estudios probabilísticos. Los tipos de suelos que se estudiaron fueron cohesivos, los cuales se pueden encontrar también en la selva peruana. Sin embargo, no se está tomando en cuenta proyectos nacionales por lo que no cuentan con la información necesaria para la aplicación de esta metodología. / Geotechnical studies on slope stability analyzes are performed using deterministic methods, from which are obtained as a result of a safety factor (FS) of the structure analyzed. However, these methods do not quantify the uncertainty in the input variables (parameters of soil resistance), analysis and do not show the details of the most influential variables in the stability of the slope. Therefore, probabilistic methods can overcome these problems. This research has as main objective the analysis of slope stability by probabilistic first order second moment method (FOSM) by two applicability recommendation that we provide the authors Sandroni & Sayao (1992) and Mostyn and Li (1993); and a comparison with the results obtained. Resulting in the second method is more accurate by being number of analysis performed. The case is one of the most important roads in Brazil which suffered a landslide two years after its construction. probabilistic analysis result that reliability parameters of the structure were very low and very high probability of rupture was performed. It was decided to make the solution stability with a minimum breaking probability. The research was carried out with studies of Brazil, for the amount of data that is required when probabilistic studies are conducted. Soil types found were generally cohesive, which can be found in the Peruvian jungle. However, there is no necessary data projects with this amount of data is required. / Tesis

No description available.

Sublevel caving operations at great depths are subjected both to large stress concentrations that are redistributed as the mining front progresses and to mining-induced seismicity. This is the case for Kiirunavaara mine, Sweden’s largest underground mine. Since the mine was declared seismically active in 2007 / 2008, large rockfalls controlled by structures have happened in many parts of the mine, despite the use of rock support systems designed for bearing dynamic loads. A novel layout for sublevel caving operations, internally named “fork layout” is being tested at a satellite mine. This layout was conceived to place the ore-parallel longitudinal footwall drifts further away from the contact between the orebody and footwall drifts. That way, the differential stresses that generate stress-related damages are expected to be reduced. However, the effect of implementing the fork layout on the hazard potential for structurally controlled rockfalls has not been studied in detail yet. Large rockfalls that occurred in different parts of the mine were analysed with respect to their structures, location of the damage event and type of excavation. The majority of these occurred at footwall drift intersections. Information from damage mapping and seismic events that triggered these rockfalls was used to generate a conceptual model that illustrates the relative spatial relation between the seismic source and damage location. In addition, the seismic source parameters of the events that triggered these rockfalls were processed using scaling laws to obtain ground motion parameters such as peak particle velocity and acceleration at the damage site. The effect of implementing the fork layout on rockfall hazard was tested in the intersections between footwall drifts and crosscuts (FD-CC), and intersections between access and footwall drifts (AD-FD) in two production blocks, using the traditional layout for sublevel caving mining as a point of comparison. Two different fork layouts were tested, FD-CC at 80° (or AD-FD at 100°) and FD-CC at 70° (or AD-FD at 110°). Structural data available from face mapping and oriented core logging was used to define predominant joint sets at the investigated blocks. Using the structural input, wedge volumes at the intersections were modelled deterministically and probabilistically in Unwedge. The variations in wedge volumes formed at the intersections between layouts were used as a proxy for rockfall potential, meaning that if a layout reduced the wedge size, the smaller the rockfall hazard if triggered by a seismic event, and vice versa. It was concluded that most rockfalls at the FD-CC intersections are controlled by structures from three major joint sets. It was observed that rockfalls at FD-CC intersections occurred more often at certain footwall drift orientations. Many seismic events that triggered these rockfalls are located close to the ore passes and generated ground accelerations between 0.5 to 10 times the gravity acceleration. Implementing fork layouts with FD-CC at 80° intersection angle generates larger wedges than the traditional layout and thus, scenarios with a higher rockfall hazard. On the other hand, using fork layouts with FD-CC at 70° intersection angle reduces wedge size at the southern FD-CC intersections; hence, the rockfall hazard is reduced in these intersections. In the northern FD-CC intersections, the wedge volumes are increased and thus, a higher rockfall potential is generated in these intersections. AD-FD at 110° intersection angle generates also a smaller rockfall hazard than the traditional layout in both production blocks.

Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) sind eine Datenstruktur für Boolesche Funktionen, die auch unter dem Namen branching program bekannt ist. In ordered binary decision diagrams (OBDDs) müssen die Tests einer festen Variablenordnung genügen. In free binary decision diagrams (FBDDs) darf jede Variable höchstens einmal getestet werden. Die Effizienz neuer Varianten des BDD-Konzepts wird gewöhnlich anhand spektakulärer (worst-case) Beispiele aufgezeigt. Wir verfolgen einen anderen Ansatz und vergleichen die Darstellungsgrößen für fast alle Booleschen Funktionen. Während I. Wegener bewiesen hat, daß für die `meisten' n die erwartete OBDD-Größe einer zufälligen Booleschen Funktion von n Variablen gleich der worst-case Größe bis auf Terme kleinerer Ordnung ist, zeigen wir daß dies nicht der Fall ist für n innerhalb von Intervallen konstanter Länge um die Werte n = 2h + h. Ferner gibt es Bereiche von n, in denen minimale FBDDs fast immer um mindestens einen konstanten Faktor kleiner sind als minimale OBDDs. Unsere Hauptsätze ha ben doppelt exponentielle Wahrschein- lichkeitsschranken (in n). Außerdem untersuchen wir die Entwicklung zufälliger OBDDs und ihrer worst-case Größe und decken dabei ein oszillierendes Verhalten auf, das erklärt, warum gewisse Aussagen im allgemeinen nicht verstärkt werden können. / Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) are a data structure for Boolean functions which are also known as branching programs. In ordered binary decision diagrams (OBDDs), the tests have to obey a fixed variable ordering. In free binary decision diagrams (FBDDs), each variable can be tested at most once. The efficiency of new variants of the BDD concept is usually demonstrated with spectacular (worst-case) examples. We pursue another approach and compare the representation sizes of almost all Boolean functions. Whereas I. Wegener proved that for `most' values of n the expected OBDD size of a random Boolean function of n variables is equal to the worst-case size up to terms of lower order, we show that this is not the case for n within intervals of constant length around the values n = 2h + h. Furthermore, ranges of n exist for which minimal FBDDs are almost always at least a constant factor smaller than minimal OBDDs. Our main theorems have doubly exponentially small probability bounds (in n). We also investigate the evolution of random OBDDs and their worst-case size, revealing an oscillating behaviour that explains why certain results cannot be improved in general.

Automobile système embarqué est une architecture distribuée de l'ordinateur des applications basées sur. La prolifération des systèmes embarqués dans une automobile a apporté de nombreux avantages,tels que le remplacement du système mécanique ancienne avec capteur électronique en réseau et desactionneurs, par exemple, dans des applications telles suspensions adaptatives. Le remplacement des systèmes mécaniques avec ceux électroniques et l'intégration de nouvelles fonctionnalités dans l'électronique soulève une grave préoccupation, c'est de fournir des garanties que ces systèmes embarqués seront en mesure d'effectuer, même dans des environnements difficiles, en particulier dans un système critique pour la sécurité comme un automobile. De plus, ceux-ci l'actualité informatique applications à la demande, imposée par un processus physique.Par exemple, pour éviter un événement catastrophique comme un accident de la demande de freinage doit répondre aux contraintes de minutage. Ce qui implique que la durée de temps entre l'instance de l'application du frein (à la pédale de frein) et l'instance de l'actionnement au niveau des roues d'un véhicule automobile doit être inférieure à la limite. En outre, l'application de freinage est généralement répartie sur le nombre de nœuds, qui sont embarqués communicants les uns avec les autres en utilisant une ressource de communication partagée. Par conséquent, il est important que nous fournissons des garanties que la demande, individuellement et collectivement, est atteinte de ses contrainte temporelle; qui est dans la composition de plusieurs nœuds embarqués. En outre, la prolifération des applications informatiques est également livré avec une hétérogénéité croissante et la complexité de l'architecture intégrée, ce qui conduira à l'augmentation de la complexité de l'analyse pour les systèmes automobiles.Par conséquent, il ya un besoin croissant d'assurer que ces systèmes automobiles embarqués répondre à des contraintes temporelles et de fournir des garanties de sécurité au cours de leur fonctionnement normal ou lors de situations critiques. Cette thèse vise à développer les analyses d'ordonnançabilité pour systèmes automobiles et les réseaux intégrés, avec le but de faciliter,d'une manière rentable et fiable, la conception et l'analyse des systèmes embarqués automobiles. Les analyses sont élaborées et appliquées dans le contexte de l'automobile; de ​​façon à réduire le risque d'échec en raison de délai: les limites du matériel; frais généraux de mise en œuvre, et les interférences dues à la circulation probaliste / Automotive embedded system is a distributed architecture of computer-based applications. The proliferation of embedded systems in an automobile has brought numerous benefits; such as replacement of old mechanical system with networked electronic sensor and actuators, for example, in applications like adaptive suspensions. The replacement of mechanical systems with electronic onesand the integration of new functionality in electronics raises a serious concern; that is to provide guarantees that these embedded systems will be able to perform, even in harsh environments, particularly in a safety-critical system like an automobile.Moreover, these computer-based applications demand timeliness, imposed by a physical process. For example, to avoid a catastrophic event like a crash the braking application has to meet thetiming-constraints. This implies that the time duration between the instance of application of the brake (at brake pedal) and the instance of actuation at the wheels of an automobile should be less than the deadline. Moreover, the braking application is usually spread over number of embedded nodes, which are communicating with each other using a shared communication resource. Therefore, it is important that we provide some guarantees that an application, individually and collectively, is meeting its timing constraint; that is in the composition of multiple embedded nodes. Moreover, theproliferation of computer-based applications also comes with an increasing heterogeneity and complexity of the embedded architecture; which lead to the increase in the complexity of the analysis for the automotive systems Therefore, there is an increasing need to ensure that these automotive embedded systems meet temporal constraints and provide safety guarantees during their normal operation or during critical situations. This thesis aims at developing the schedulability analyses for automotive systems and embedded networks; with the aim to facilitate, in a cost-effective and reliable manner, the design and analysis of automotive embedded systems. The analyses are developed and applied in the automotive context; so as to reduce the risk of deadline failure due to: hardware limitations ; implementation overheads; and nterference due to probabilistic traffic

A Engenharia de Ventos Baseada em Desempenho (Performance-based Wind Engineering - PBWE) é uma filosofia de projeto que preconiza identificar e quantificar as incertezas envolvidas no projeto estrutural a fim de assegurar níveis previsíveis de desempenho às edificações, não mais gerenciando o risco através da clássica abordagem determinística. Contudo, devido à recente proposição da metodologia, ainda há poucos estudos relacionados à PBWE, cada qual apresentando diferentes limitações. Assim, o presente trabalho propõe uma adaptação da metodologia da Engenharia de Ventos Baseada em Desempenho à análise probabilística do comportamento de torres metálicas, avaliando diferentes modelos de cálculo para estimativa das forças do vento neste tipo de estrutura. Para tanto, investigou-se as incertezas envolvidas na caracterização do campo de ventos e da resistência estrutural e foram analisados quatro métodos distintos para a estimativa das forças de vento em torres metálicas: dois procedimentos de cálculo correspondentes à norma brasileira de ventos ABNT NBR 6123:1988 (ABNT, 1988), a metodologia de Davenport (1993) e a de Holmes (1994). Um estudo de caso envolvendo a estimativa da confiabilidade de uma torre de telecomunicação também foi conduzido. Constatou-se que ambos os procedimentos de cálculo admitidos conduzem a níveis de segurança de mesma ordem de grandeza e que a elaboração de projetos de torres considerando a direção de incidência do vento como sendo a mais desfavorável à estrutura é demasiadamente conservadora. Como contribuição, verifica-se que o projeto ótimo de torres pode ser alcançado com base no nível de segurança desejado para diferentes velocidades máxima de vento associadas a intervalos de recorrência específicos. / Performance-based Wind Engineering (PBWE) is a design philosophy that aims to identify and quantify the uncertainties involved in the structural design in order to ensure predictable performance levels to buildings, no longer managing risk through the classical deterministic approach. However, due to the recent proposal of the methodology, there are few studies related to PBWE, each presenting different limitations. Thus, this paper proposes an adaptation of the Performance-based Wind Engineering methodology to the probabilistic analysis of the behavior of steel towers, evaluating different calculation models for estimating wind forces on this type of structure. To this end, uncertainties involved in the characterization of the wind field and structural strength were investigated and four different methods for the estimation of wind forces on steel towers were analyzed: two procedures relative to the Brazilian winds standard ABNT NBR 6123:1988 (ABNT, 1988), and the methodologies of Davenport (1993) and Holmes (1994). A case study concerning the reliability estimation of a telecommunication tower was also conducted. It was found that both assumed calculation procedures lead to security levels of the same order of magnitude and that the design of towers considering that the wind always blows from the worst direction is too conservative. As a contribution, it is found that the optimum design of towers can be achieved based on the desired security level for different maximum wind speeds associated to specific recurrence intervals.