Magister Commercii - MCom / This study analyses the extent to which stock returns provide forecasts of changes in interest rates and inflation for the South African market. The period under investigation, January 1966 - February 1989, is characterised by structural changes in the South African economy, especially in the financial markets. The earnings yield on shares is used as a measure of the return on stocks. Stock returns of 10 specific industries are used in addition to the overall market return. Monthly inflation series were constructed by employing both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Before examining that relationship, tests were done to examine the relationship between nominal stock returns and expected inflation. The relation between the stock market and expected inflation is estimated by using three measures of expected inflation. The results appear to suggest that the stock market reacted positively to expected inflation during the 1966 - 1982 period. Two proxies of expected inflation. Best results inflation are used to were obtained with measure future the Fama-Gibbons measure. In addition, the results suggest that stock returns provide additional information of future inflation to that contained in the Fama-Gibbons and interest rate models. Returns for specific industries, used in this study, appear to provide marginally better forecasts of inflation than the overall market return. The results also suggest that stock returns provide forecasts of changes in interest rates and inflation. There is no evidence that the specific industries used, provide consistent better forecasts of interest rate changes than the overall market.

The purpose of this study is to examine whether the implementation of quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) in the United States has detracted from the integrity of the country’s macroeconomic environment. In other words, does QE impact macroeconomic stability? Then, evaluate implications and externalities of stability as they relate to sustainability efforts. QE and QT are relatively new phenomena, understanding their effects and implications for the greater economy is a worthwhile endeavor, not least because QE is a current practice of so many central banks internationally. This study has two parallel investigations; first, a time series analysis conducted with a VAR model investigating the relationship of QE/QT usage by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on the macroeconomic stability of the United States. The data used in this study includes 242 monthly observations spanning January 2003 - February 2023. The second, is an OLS regression analysis evaluating whether macroeconomic stability is potentially correlated with sustainability efforts. For this study, 23 annual observations spanning 1995 – 2017 were used. Due in part to the general unavailability of genuine progress indicator (GPI) data. Based on the analysis conducted using a VAR model at lag t-4, QE has a positive relationship with Producer Price Index (PPI) and Federal Funds Rate (FFR). This is in accord with previous empirical literature on the subject. However, the second path of discovery failed to yield significant results with regard to the link between macroeconomic stability and sustainability efforts. Mention of this study’s limitations as well as avenues for future research can be found in the conclusion of this study.