Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / Upon reaching the effective end of conventional monetary policy, the Zero-Lower Bound, the Federal Reserve Board began to utilize a non-conventional expansionary monetary policy involving Large Scale Asset Purchases. Under this policy, large quantities of agency and federal debt is purchased using the reserves of the Federal Reserve Bank’s balance sheet. This policy is frequently referred to as Quantitative Easing or, more simply, QE. This paper considers the effects and sustainability of the Federal Open Market Committee’s use of Large Scale Asset Purchases on the prices and yields of financial assets within the U.S. Financial Markets. Our analysis presents evidence that while QE was initially effective in lowering the yields of agency and federal debt, the downward pressure on yields was not sustainable over time. Additionally, we find that the effects of QE spilled-over into additional asset classes within the financial markets including corporate fixed-income and equities. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2018. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

This thesis focuses on the quantitative easing as a tool used by the U.S. central bank in an effor to enhance the expansionary monetary policy even during the reduction of major interest rate close to zero. The aim is to analyze the impact of the first and second round of quantitative easing on the economy of the Unites States of America practiced by Fed. The aim is achieved primarily by using event study, which examined the effect of the first and second round of quantitatitve easing on the yield of U.S. Treasuries. In the context of quantitative easing other economic data such as macroeconomic development of U.S. economy or the situation in the real estat and stock marekts are studied. The second major area of this thesis is the analysis of inflation. The sharp rise of inflation is considered as a one of the major risks associated with quantitative easing. Relationship between quantitative easing and inflation is mainly studied by analyzing the behavior of banks and other economic subjects and by using the results of quantitative easing policiy in the countries which also used that policy.

Since the end of October 2010, the Bank of Japan has been pursuing a new Asset Purchase Programme, which includes, among other things, direct intervention in the domestic stock market through the purchase of exchange-traded funds. This research study evaluated the impact of the Bank of Japan’s exchange-traded fund purchase programme on market returns using an event study methodology. An investigation into a sample of 33 intervention events in the Nikkei 400 exchangetraded fund and 303 intervention events in the Nikkei 225 exchange-traded fund, found that the average abnormal one-day return is -1.36% for the Nikkei 400 exchange-traded fund and -1.39% for the Nikkei 225 exchange-traded fund, while the average abnormal five-day return is -0.63% and -1.11% for each exchange-traded fund respectively. Due to the high volatility, statistically the returns are indistinguishable from zero. However, this study presents evidence that the Bank of Japan intervenes predominantly during large decreases in the market. Hence, there is suggestive evidence that the Bank of Japan’s policy is effective at reducing market losses, but is not extensive enough to significantly increase returns.

Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka hur Riksbankens stora köp av stats- och företagsobligationer hjälpte till att återhämta den svenska ekonomin efter den ekonomiska nedgången år 2020. För att genomföra denna analys nyttjar jag en strukturell vektor autoregressions-modell, samt ett flertal variabler som är väsentliga inom den svenska ekonomin. Den data som används sträcker sig mellan januari 2011 och december 2020. Resultaten visar att Riksbankens obligationsköp först minskade industriproduktionen som sedan återgick till sin normala nivå. Både den långa och den korta räntan påverkades i mycket liten utsträckning. Riksbankens obligationsköp ledde till en uppgång på börsen och en depreciering av den svenska kronan. Slutsatsen utifrån detta är att Riksbankens köp av obligationer bidrog till att stimulera den svenska ekonomin i begränsad utsträckning.

La mise en place de la politique monétaire non conventionnelle en 2008 aux États-Unis a coïncidé avec d'importants mouvements de capitaux et de taux de change dans les pays émergents. Ces derniers ont accusé la banque centrale américaine d'adopter une politique « d'appauvrissement du voisin » et de créer ces effets de report. En 2013, à la suite de l'annonce du ralentissement graduel du rythme de cette politique monétaire, certains pays émergents ont subi d'importantes crises financières. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse se propose d'étudier dans quelle mesure la politique monétaire non conventionnelle de la Réserve fédérale américaine a induit des effets de report en termes de mouvements de capitaux et de taux de change. Alors que la normalisation de cette politique monétaire est entamée, il est primordial de comprendre les implications internationales des décisions de la Réserve fédérale pour pouvoir contenir les risques potentiels. Tout d'abord, nous étudions les mécanismes et leurs effets sur les pays émergents dans le cadre d'une revue de la littérature. Nous montrons que la politique monétaire de la Réserve fédérale a bien été responsable d'effets de report. Ensuite, nous révélons, de façon empirique, que les conséquences présentent une certaine hétérogénéité dans le temps, en fonction des modalités d'intervention de la banque centrale américaine, ainsi que selon les pays. Nous établissons qu'il n'y a pas de réelle symétrie entre la phase expansionniste et celle de normalisation. De ce fait, la normalisation n'apparaît pas entrainer des reflux de capitaux dans les pays émergents. Finalement, nous nous intéressons aux moyens dont disposent les pays émergents pour limiter les effets de report. Nous montrons que les contrôles de capitaux et les politiques macroprudentielles peuvent permettre de réduire les mouvements de capitaux. Plus précisément, l'efficacité des contrôles de capitaux est conditionnée par leur accumulation. Plus le pays en est doté, plus il limite les effets de report. L'efficacité de la politique macroprudentielle dépend quant à elle de la qualité des institutions dans le pays émergent et de l'intensité de la politique monétaire américaine. / The implementation of the U.S. unconventional monetary policy in 2008 coincided with massive capital inflows and exchange rate appreciation for emerging markets. They implicate the Federal Reserve to pursue a « Beggar-thy-neighbor » policy and to create spillovers. In 2013, following the announcement of the « Tapering », some emerging markets suffered from significant financial crises. In this context, this thesis intends to study how the U.S. unconventional monetary policy led to capital flows and exchange rate movements spillovers. As the normalization of this monetary policy is initiated, understanding the international implications of the Federal Reserve's decisions is essential to contain potential risks. For this purpose, we firstly study mechanisms and their impacts on emerging countries by a literature review. We show that the Fed monetary policy caused capital flows and exchange rate spillovers in the last decade. Then, we reveal empirically that the impacts exhibit heterogeneity over time, depend on implementation modalities of the U.S. central bank as well as on the countries. We establish that there is no real symmetrical impacts between accommodative and normalization periods. As a result, the normalization would not lead to capital outflows in emerging countries. Finally, we examine the means that emerging countries can adopt to limit spillovers. We demonstrate that capital controls and macroprudential policies can be efficient to reduce capital inflows. More precisely, the effectiveness of capital controls is conditioned by their accumulation. The more the country adopts it, the more it limits spillovers. Considering macroprudential policies, the intensity of the U.S. monetary policy and the quality of the emerging countries' institutions are two main determinants of their effectiveness.

Submitted by arthur mendes (agalegomendes@gmail.com) on 2013-10-30T18:04:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Final.pdf: 393524 bytes, checksum: a6e35ab46f67c3472d55a57b0bad00ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2013-11-01T16:53:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Final.pdf: 393524 bytes, checksum: a6e35ab46f67c3472d55a57b0bad00ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-11-13T17:27:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Final.pdf: 393524 bytes, checksum: a6e35ab46f67c3472d55a57b0bad00ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-11-13T17:33:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Final.pdf: 393524 bytes, checksum: a6e35ab46f67c3472d55a57b0bad00ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2001-06-13 / I show that when a central bank is financially independent from the treasury and has balance sheet concerns, an increase in the size or a change in the composition of the central bank's balance sheet (quantitative easing) can serve as a commitment device in a liquidity trap scenario. In particular, when the short-term interest rate is up against the zero lower bound, an open market operation by the central bank that involves purchases of long-term bonds can help mitigate the deation and a large negative output gap under a discretionary equilibrium. This is because such an open market operation provides an incentive to the central bank to keep interest rates low in future in order to avoid losses in its balance sheet.

Submitted by Luis Lellis (luislellis@gmail.com) on 2015-12-16T08:26:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 O IMPACTO DA POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA NÃO CONVENCIONAL AMERICANA SOBRE O PREÇO DOS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS BRASILEIROS.pdf: 932868 bytes, checksum: 3f85c3ea92ee9a2a52647220f067a572 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-01-25T17:49:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 O IMPACTO DA POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA NÃO CONVENCIONAL AMERICANA SOBRE O PREÇO DOS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS BRASILEIROS.pdf: 932868 bytes, checksum: 3f85c3ea92ee9a2a52647220f067a572 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2016-01-27T17:43:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 O IMPACTO DA POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA NÃO CONVENCIONAL AMERICANA SOBRE O PREÇO DOS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS BRASILEIROS.pdf: 932868 bytes, checksum: 3f85c3ea92ee9a2a52647220f067a572 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-27T17:43:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 O IMPACTO DA POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA NÃO CONVENCIONAL AMERICANA SOBRE O PREÇO DOS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS BRASILEIROS.pdf: 932868 bytes, checksum: 3f85c3ea92ee9a2a52647220f067a572 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-26 / Aplicando uma metodologia de testes de eventos, este estudo avalia o impacto dos anúncios de implementação e retirada dos estímulos monetários pelo Banco Central americano (FED) entre 2008 a 2013 sobre a curva de juros, a taxa de câmbio e a bolsa brasileira. Os resultados mostram que os anúncios de política monetária americana impactaram o preço dos ativos brasileiros significativamente principalmente durante o QE1 e o Tapering. Para os demais QEs, Operação Twist e eventos de postergação da retirada de estímulos, o não Tapering, ainda que os resultados encontrados estivessem dentro do esperado, eles tiveram baixa significância. Concluímos que a política monetária americana não convencional foi eficaz em impactar o preço dos ativos brasileiros, em especial os eventos não esperados. Ao incluirmos defasagens nos testes aplicados concluímos que em alguns casos houve 'atraso' na incorporação das novas informações no preço dos ativos.

This thesis studies the optimal conduct of unconventional monetary policy in the form of purchases of long-term government debt by the central bank and, motivated by this policy tool, the evolution of long-term government debt holdings in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. It is comprised of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter investigates whether it can be beneficial for central banks to use the unconventional tool even when the main policy rate is not constrained by the zero lower bound. A friction in the interaction between households and banks allows central bank purchases of long-term government debt to reduce long-term interest rates and thus to stimulate economic activity. If debt purchases and conventional short-term interest rate policy are coordinated in an appropriate way, the central bank is able to reduce the volatility of output and inflation. In the second chapter, the role that unconventional monetary policy can play in a currency union is analysed. A model is laid out, in which two countries form a currency union with a common central bank but separate and uncoordinated fiscal policy institutions. When monetary policy is implemented only through the common short-term interest rate, the central bank is unable to respond effectively to country-specific shocks. Due to segmentation in the market for long-term government debt, the yield on long-term debt can differ across countries. As a result, a monetary policy authority that can rely on bond purchases is able to address idiosyncratic shocks reflected in volatility of the natural terms of trade more effectively and to achieve higher welfare than one that cannot make use of this instrument. The final chapter studies the long-term government bond share in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. US data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggests that participation in the market for long-term government debt first increases and later decreases as agents approach the retirement age. The portfolio share conditional on participation is non-decreasing over the working life. These stylised facts can be explained by means of a portfolio choice model in which agents are subject to aggregate risk through asset returns as well as idiosyncratic risk through labour income and the stochastic events of retirement and death.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine how quantitative easing in the United States works through the transmission channels to establish a positive short-run effect on inflation. The research will be based on a time series analysis covering the period 2006-2015 with data collected on a monthly basis. As quantitative easing is a new unconventional monetary policy, we want to contribute to the understanding of its short-run effects on inflation. Using a distributed lag model, we conclude that quantitative easing is positively related to inflation in the short-run. The U.S. short-term interest rate, the federal funds rate, is included in the estimated model to see if it works when quantitative easing has been implemented. Furthermore, crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate is included as control variables to reduce the effects of exogenous factors in the estimated model. The regression results of quantitative easing and the federal funds rate showed statistical significance against inflation, however with a very small effect, respectively. In the final section we discuss the limitations of this thesis and future research possibilities.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / A significant theoretical literature suggests that the effects of open market operations and large scale asset purchases are limited when short-term interest rates are constrained by the zero-lower-bound (ZLB). This view is supported by a growing body of empirical evidence that points to the tepid response of the U.S. economy to extraordinary policy measures implemented by the Federal Reserve (Fed) during the past several years. In the first essay, Effective Monetary Policy at the Zero-Lower-Bound, I show that permanent open market operations (POMOs), defined as financial market interventions that permanently increase the supply of money, remain relevant at the ZLB and can increase output and inflation. Consequently, I argue that the limited success of Fed policy in recent years may be due in part to the fact that it failed to generate sufficient money creation to support economic recovery following the Great Recession. I then demonstrate that conducting POMOs at the ZLB may improve welfare when compared to a broad range of policy regimes, and conclude by conducting a robustness exercise to illustrate that money creation remains relevant at the ZLB when it is not necessarily permanent. With these results in hand, I explore the consequences of Fed QE more directly in a framework asset purchases are an independent instrument of monetary policy. In the second essay, Effective Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower-Bound, I show that the observed lack of transmission between U.S. monetary policy and output economic activity a consequence of the fact the Fed engaged in what I define as sterilized QE: temporary asset purchases that have a limited effect on the money supply. Conversely, I show that asset purchase programs geared towards generating sustained increases in the money supply may significantly attenuate output and inflation losses associated with adverse economic shocks and the ZLB constraint. Furthermore, these equilibrium outcomes may be achieved with a smaller volume of asset purchases. My results imply that Fed asset purchase programs designed to offset the observed declines in the U.S. money supply could have been a more effective and efficient means of providing economic stimulus during the recovery from the Great Recession. The third essay—which is joint work with Apollon Fragkiskos, Harold Spilker, and Russ Wermers— titled Buyout Gold: MIDAS Estimators and Private Equity, we develop a new approach to study private equity returns using a data set first introduced in Fragkiskos et al. (2017). Our innovation is that we adopt a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) framework and model quarterly private equity returns as a function of high frequency factor prices. This approach allows us to endogenize time aggregation and use within-period information that may be relevant to pricing private equity returns in a single, parsimonious framework. We find that our MIDAS framework offers superior performance in terms of generating economically meaningful factor loadings and in-sample and out-of-sample fit using index and vintage-level returns when compared with other methods from the literature. Results using fund-level data are mixed, but MIDAS does display a slight edge. Concerning appropriate time-aggregation, we show that there is significant heterogeneity at the vintage level. This implies highly aggregated private equity data may not properly reflect underlying performance in the cross section.