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Improving Estimation Accuracy using Better Similarity Distance in Analogy-based Software Cost EstimationChu, Xiaoyuan January 2015 (has links)
Software cost estimation nowadays plays a more and more important role in practical projects since modern software projects become more and more complex as well as diverse. To help estimate software development cost accurately, this research does a systematic analysis of the similarity distances in analogy-based software cost estimation and based on this, a new non-orthogonal space distance (NoSD) is proposed as a measure of the similarities between real software projects. Different from currently adopted measures like the Euclidean distance and so on, this non-orthogonal space distance not only considers the different features to have different importance for cost estimation, but also assumes project features to have a non-orthogonal dependent relationship which is considered independent to each other in Euclidean distance. Based on such assumptions, NoSD method describes the non-orthogonal angles between feature axes using feature redundancy and it represents the feature weights using feature relevance, where both redundancy and relevance are defined in terms of mutual information. It can better reveal the real dependency relationships between real life software projects based on this non-orthogonal space distance. Also experiments show that it brings a greatest of 13.1% decrease of MMRE and a 12.5% increase of PRED(0.25) on ISBSG R8 dataset, and 7.5% and 20.5% respectively on the Desharnais dataset. Furthermore, to make it better fit the complex data distribution of real life software projects data, this research leverages the particle swarm optimization algorithm for an optimization of the proposed non-orthogonal space distance and proposes a PSO optimized non-orthogonal space distance (PsoNoSD). It brings further improvement in the estimation accuracy. As shown in experiments, compared with the normally used Euclidean distance, PsoNoSD improves the estimation accuracy by 38.73% and 11.59% in terms of MMRE and PRED(0.25) on ISBSG R8 dataset. On the Desharnais dataset, the improvements are 23.38% and 24.94% respectively. In summary, the new methods proposed in this research, which are based on theoretical study as well as systematic experiments, have solved some problems of currently used techniques and they show a great ability of notably improving the software cost estimation accuracy.
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Project Cost Deviations : Determination of Causes and Correlations & Implications for Public ProcurementMassa, Lars January 2015 (has links)
Looking at newspapers nowadays, you are likely to see reports about public projects which turn out to be more expensive than estimated, sometimes even fourteen times the planned cost budget as in the case of the Sydney Opera. In order to gain a new insight on how this problematic could be improved, this paper aims to find correlations between the causes of deviations in public procurement and in the private market. Data from a on a global scale operating firm has been analyzed and compared to causes found in prior research. The questions this paper aims to answer are “Are causes and correlations found in smaller, private projects consistent with causes of cost overruns in public procurement?” and “Which implications and recommendations can be derived from the smaller dimension for the larger dimension of public procurement?” After introducing the theoretical framework and its theories, the individual cost deviations and correlations of the different segments are introduced and analysed. As a result, one can see how the rational behaviour model and asymmetric information influence the estimated cost and that, in order to decrease the problematic of cost overruns, estimation techniques and especially the way contracts are constructed have to be improved. Furthermore, positive correlations between the size of cost deviations and number of employees, possible chain of events and pay offs between
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Simplified Framework Evaluation of Large Water Resource Project ImpactsClowes, Brian Woodbridge 01 January 1988 (has links)
The document most frequently used to support a water resource project's economic feasibility is the commercial benefit-cost analysis, which quantifies tangible and direct project consequences. The objective of this type of analysis is simply to maximize net monetary benefits. This analysis assigns an arbitrary monetary value to ecological and social disruptions, if it does not ignore these effects entirely. An improvement on this method is the social benefit-cost analysis, which assesses sane intangible costs such as air and noise pollution. Unfortunately, even the social analysis usually neglects the sometimes profound effects that a large water resource project has upon quality of life, particularly with regards to massive relocations. The purpose of this dissertation is to resolve these problems by presenting a method by which a water resource study team may use five unique viewpoints - technical, organizational, personal, social, and environmental - to quantify and compare the true benefits and costs of project construction and operation. The study team begins by rigorously documenting the three general categories of project consequence (economic, social and environmental) and assigning each benefit or cost a relative value within category according to perceived positive or negative effects. The second step is to use these quantifications to produce three impact vs. dam height curves. The final and most difficult step in this study process is to assign a relative weight to the respective economic, social, and enviromental impact clusters, depending on national priorities and the biases and personal viewpoints of the decisiomaker (s). The final product of this procedure is a single curve which is used to further investigate and assess the overall feasibility of a water resource project and the 'optimum' range of dam heights. All of the possible impacts of a large water resource project, whether they be tangible or intangible, should be investigated in order to produce an authentic indicator of project efficiency. The only way to insure that all impacts are properly accounted for is to perform an exhaustive examination of a water resource project from the five perspectives mentioned above. The body of this dissertation is an example analysis based upon the proposed Three Gorge Dam and Reservoir on the Yangtze River in the People's Republic of China. This project will be the world's largest power plant at 13,000 megawatts. Because of its size, anticipated impacts, and the interest it has generated all over the world, the Three Gorge project is considered the ideal subject of a comprehensive multiple perspective analysis as described in this study.
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A probabilistic pricing model for a company's projects / En probabilistisk prissättningsmodell för ett företags projektMalmquist, Daniel January 2012 (has links)
The company’s pricing is often highly impacted by the estimation of competitors’ project costs, which also is the main scope in this degree project. The purpose is to develop a pricing model dealing with uncertainties, since this is a main issue in the current pricing process. A pre-study has been performed, followed by a model implementation. An analysis of the model was then made, before conclusions were drawn. Project cost estimation foremost, but also probability distribution functions and pricing as a general concept, were investigated in the mainly literary pre-study. Two suitable methods for project cost estimation were identified; Monte Carlo simulation and Hierarchy Probability Cost Analysis. These lead to a theoretical project cost estimation model. A model was implemented in Matlab. It treats project cost estimation, but no other pricing aspects. The model was developed based on the theoretical one to the extent possible. Project costs were broken down in sub costs which were included in a Monte Carlo simulation. Competitors’ project costs were estimated using this technique. To analyse the model’s accuracy was difficult. It differs from the theoretical one in terms of how probability distribution functions and correlations are estimated. These problems depend on projects with shifting characteristics and limited data and time. A solid framework has been created though. Improvement possibilities exist, e.g. more accurate estimates and a model handling other pricing aspects. The major threat is that nobody maintains the model. Anyway, estimates are not more than just estimates. The model should therefore be viewed as a helpful tool, not an answer. / Företagets prissättning påverkas ofta till stor del av estimeringen av konkurrenters projektkostnader, vilket också är huvudområdet i detta examensarbete. Syftet är att utveckla en prissättningsmodell som hanterar osäkerheter, då detta är ett stort problem i rådande prissättningsprocess. En förstudie har utförts, följt av en modellimplementation. En analys av modellen gjordes sedan, innan slutsatser drogs. Projektkostnadsestimering främst, men även sannolikhetsfunktioner och prissättning som ett allmänt koncept, undersöktes i den i huvudsak litterära förstudien. Två lämpliga metoder för projektkostnadsestimering identifierades; Monte Carlo-simulering och Hierarchy Probability Cost Analysis. Dessa ledde till en teoretisk modell för projektkostnadsestimering. En modell implementerades i Matlab. Den behandlar projektkostnadsestimering, men inga andra prissättningsaspekter. Modellen utvecklades baserat på den teoretiska i möjlig utsträckning. Projektkostnader bröts ner i delkostnader som estimerades för konkurrenterna. Dessa ingick i en Monte Carlo-simulering. Konkurrenters projektkostnader estimerades med hjälp av denna teknik. Att analysera modellens noggrannhet var svårt. Den skiljer sig från den teoretiska beträffande hur sannolikhetsfunktioner och korrelationer estimeras. Dessa problem beror på projekt med skiftande karaktärsdrag samt begränsad data och tid. Ett solitt ramverk har dock skapats. Förbättringsmöjligheter finns, t.ex. noggrannare estimat och en modell som behandlar andra prissättningsaspekter. Det huvudsakliga hotet är att ingen underhåller modellen. Hur som helst är estimat inte mer än estimat. Modellen ska därför ses som ett hjälpverktyg, inte ett facit.
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Analýza efektivnosti manažerské metody ve vybraném podnikatelském subjektu / Analysis of the effectiveness of managerial method in selected business entityNOVOTNÝ, Jaromír January 2011 (has links)
The thesis focuses on the analysis of managerial method applied to the specific project selected. The aim is to demonstrate the effectiveness of Design to cost method to reduce costs in selected business entity. Using analysis of statistical software has been verified effectiveness of this method. The author demonstrated a specific project cost savings of 17% (3,95 million CZK).
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Vliv subdodavatelů na cenu stavebního díla / Effect of subcontractors on the price of the worksTulpa, Michal January 2015 (has links)
This thesis deals with the effect of subcontractors on the price of the works. This work describes the influence and where the phases of the project occurs. Furthermore, the influence analyzed and designed a process of elimination.
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A Framework to Support A Systematic Approach to Unit Cost DevelopmentRamesh, Sushanth 2009 December 1900 (has links)
Availability of historical unit cost data is an important factor in developing accurate project cost estimates. State highway agencies (SHAs) collect data on historical bids and/or production rates, crew sizes and mixes, material costs, and equipment costs, including contractor overhead and profit. The objective of this research is to create a framework to define a standardized and a systematic approach for developing unit costs for construction project estimating. A literature review was conducted that provided an overview of estimating techniques used in project estimating, estimation guidelines maintained by SHAs, and information systems used in the estimation process. After gaining a broad overview of the industry‘s approach to unit cost development, a survey was then conducted. The purpose of the survey was to identify the state of practice in SHAs for unit cost development. The survey helped to identify SHAs doing considerable work in unit cost development and interviews were conducted with these agencies to know their unit cost development process in detail. The results from survey and the interviews were then used in defining the framework. The framework provides a standardized way to use historical data for preparing construction project estimates.
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Strategies Construction Managerial Leaders Use to Counteract Material Cost Overrunsvan der Kuyp, Daniel John 01 January 2018 (has links)
The project cost overruns instigated through the loss of construction materials lowers the profitability of each stakeholder significantly. The purpose of this single case study was to explore strategies managerial leaders of a large construction firm used to counteract material cost overruns successfully. The diffusion of innovation theory was the conceptual framework for this study. The target population consisted of 6 managerial leaders with experience in large construction projects adhering to waste management standards and industry certifications. Data were collected using semistructured interviews and review of company documentation. The data analysis approach involved the content analysis research method to interpret and code the verbatim transcriptions of interviews into categories. The 2 principal categories from the study data were material management and planning and the supply chain and logistics. The results of the study yielded evidence of 2 strategies to counteract the material cost overruns, which were to strengthen partnerships with the suppliers and to hold regular audits at the project sites. The implication of this study for social change includes the potential to conserve depleted land minerals and valuable land reserves from becoming landfill by providing construction managers with information about strategies to counteract material cost overruns.
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Ramavtal för förskolebyggnader : Analys av ramavtal för förskolebyggnader från Adda med fokus på tids- och kostnadseffektivitet jämfört med skräddarsytt byggande / General agreement for preschool buildings : Analysis of general agreement for preschool buildings from Adda with a focus on time and cost efficiency compared to customized constructionAxtelius, Julia, Andersson, Maya January 2024 (has links)
Ramavtal för förskolebyggnader togs fram 2018 av Sveriges Kommuner och Regioner, förkortat SKR, samt Adda. Ramavtalet innebär en alternativ metod till skräddarsytt byggande av förskolor och arbetet har syftat till att undersöka om några tids- och kostnadsbesparingar kan erhållas genom att använda avtalet. För att besvara frågeställningarna har information framför allt samlats in genom enkäter och intervjuer med sakkunniga inom området. De slutsatser som kan dras är att både tids- och kostnadsbesparingar kan uppstå genom att bygga förskolor med ramavtalet från SKR och Adda. Det konstateras att den tid som passerar från idé och vision av en ny förskola fram till att ett slutbesked utfärdas kan förkortas genom att använda ramavtalet vilket innebär att det är mer tidseffektivt än skräddarsytt byggande. Arbetet visar även att kostnadsbesparingar kan ske genom ramavtalet vilket visas genom att bland annat projektkostnad per förskoleplats och BTA i genomsnitt är lägre för dessa byggnader. Däremot anses de tidsbesparingar som uppstår vara mer markanta än de minskade kostnaderna. Slutsatserna är beroende på inlämnad data som utgör enbart en mindre del av det svenska förskolebeståndet och representerar därför inte hela beståndet. / Framework agreements for preschool buildings were presented in 2018 by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions, abbreviated as SKR, and Adda. The framework agreement represents an alternative method to customized construction of preschools and the work has aimed to investigate whether any time and cost savings can be obtained by using the framework agreement. In order to answer the questions, information has primarily been collected through surveys and interviews with experts in the field. The conclusions that can be stated are that both time and cost savings can occur by building preschools with framework agreement from SKR and Adda. It is found that the time that passes from the idea and vision of a new preschool until the building is finished can be shortened by using the framework agreement, which means that it is more time-efficient than customized construction. The work also shows that cost savings can be achieved through the framework agreement, which is shown by for example the project cost per childcare places and gross area being lower on average for these buildings. However, the time savings that occur are considered to be more significant than the reduced costs. The conclusions depend on submitted data that represents only a small portion of Swedish school buildings and therefore do not represent the entire building stock.
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Financování developerského projektu / Financing of a Development ProjectPinnerová, Eliška January 2008 (has links)
Master´s thesis analysed the financing of a development project Slunečný vrch, produced by ABILD s.r.o. company. On the basis of detailed analysis, the project includes proposals to support sales and optimize revenues.
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