O presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento e apresentação de um modelo econômico-probabilístico para seleção e priorização de projetos. O modelo proposto utiliza 38 critérios, contempla interdependências entre projetos e permite quantificar os investimentos, benefícios e incertezas associadas, fornecendo uma análise abrangente dos retornos esperados para os projetos. O trabalho realizado envolveu cinco etapas principais: (i) identificar e selecionar os principais critérios de avaliação e seleção de projetos; (ii) identificar os principais métodos utilizados na seleção e priorização de projetos; (iii) integrar os critérios selecionados com um método de seleção e priorização de projetos em um modelo capaz de avaliar o retorno econômico e o impacto das incertezas envolvidas no resultado de cada projeto; (iv) aprimorar o modelo validado para que seja capaz de identificar interdependência entre os projetos do portfólio; e (v) testar e validar parcialmente o modelo ampliado através da aplicação na realidade de empresas. A principal contribuição desta tese é a proposição de um modelo que combina métodos econômicos e probabilísticos, seguindo procedimentos relativamente simples, mas capazes de considerar incertezas e interdependências entre projetos. O modelo proposto avalia aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos e utiliza simulação de Monte Carlo e Programação Matemática. Do ponto de vista prático, a importância desta tese reside no fato de métodos econômicos serem considerados mais amigáveis aos tomadores de decisão, uma vez que o seu procedimento é transparente e o resultado financeiro é claro para todos os envolvidos. Paralelamente, o procedimento probabilístico permite qualificar a informação disponibilizada aos tomadores de decisão uma vez que é possível entender a extensão da incerteza associada aos critérios utilizados na tomada de decisão. / This study's main objective is to develop and present an economic-probabilistic model for projects selection and prioritization. The proposed model uses 38 criteria, contemplates the interdependencies among projects and allows the quantification of benefits, investments and associated uncertainties, providing a comprehensive analysis of expected returns for the projects. The work was conducted comprising five main stages: (i) identify and select the main criteria for projects selection and evaluation; (ii) identify the main methods used in projects selection and prioritization; (iii) integrating the selected criteria to a project selection and prioritization method in a model capable of evaluating the economic returns and the impact of the uncertainties involved in the outcome of each project; (iv) improve the model to be able to identify interdependencies among projects in the portfolio, and (v) test and partially validate the extended model by application to the reality of companies. The main contribution of this thesis is the proposition of a model that combines economic and probabilistic methods, following relatively simple procedures, but able to account for interdependencies and uncertainty among projects. The proposed model evaluates qualitative and quantitative aspects and uses Monte Carlo simulation and Linear Programming. From a practical standpoint, the importance of this thesis lies in the fact that economic methods are considered more friendly to decision makers, since its procedure is transparent and the bottom line is clear to all involved. Moreover, the probabilistic procedure allows to qualify the information available to decision makers since it is possible to understand the extent of uncertainty associated with the criteria used in decision making.

abstract: Project portfolio selection (PPS) is a significant problem faced by most organizations. How to best select the many innovative ideas that a company has developed to deploy in a proper and sustained manner with a balanced allocation of its resources over multiple time periods is one of vital importance to a company's goals. This dissertation details the steps involved in deploying a more intuitive portfolio selection framework that facilitates bringing analysts and management to a consensus on ongoing company efforts and buy into final decisions. A binary integer programming selection model that constructs an efficient frontier allows the evaluation of portfolios on many different criteria and allows decision makers (DM) to bring their experience and insight to the table when making a decision is discussed. A binary fractional integer program provides additional choices by optimizing portfolios on cost-benefit ratios over multiple time periods is also presented. By combining this framework with an `elimination by aspects' model of decision making, DMs evaluate portfolios on various objectives and ensure the selection of a portfolio most in line with their goals. By presenting a modeling framework to easily model a large number of project inter-dependencies and an evolutionary algorithm that is intelligently guided in the search for attractive portfolios by a beam search heuristic, practitioners are given a ready recipe to solve big problem instances to generate attractive project portfolios for their organizations. Finally, this dissertation attempts to address the problem of risk and uncertainty in project portfolio selection. After exploring the selection of portfolios based on trade-offs between a primary benefit and a primary cost, the third important dimension of uncertainty of outcome and the risk a decision maker is willing to take on in their quest to select the best portfolio for their organization is examined. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Industrial Engineering 2018

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento e apresentação de um modelo econômico-probabilístico para seleção e priorização de projetos. O modelo proposto utiliza 38 critérios, contempla interdependências entre projetos e permite quantificar os investimentos, benefícios e incertezas associadas, fornecendo uma análise abrangente dos retornos esperados para os projetos. O trabalho realizado envolveu cinco etapas principais: (i) identificar e selecionar os principais critérios de avaliação e seleção de projetos; (ii) identificar os principais métodos utilizados na seleção e priorização de projetos; (iii) integrar os critérios selecionados com um método de seleção e priorização de projetos em um modelo capaz de avaliar o retorno econômico e o impacto das incertezas envolvidas no resultado de cada projeto; (iv) aprimorar o modelo validado para que seja capaz de identificar interdependência entre os projetos do portfólio; e (v) testar e validar parcialmente o modelo ampliado através da aplicação na realidade de empresas. A principal contribuição desta tese é a proposição de um modelo que combina métodos econômicos e probabilísticos, seguindo procedimentos relativamente simples, mas capazes de considerar incertezas e interdependências entre projetos. O modelo proposto avalia aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos e utiliza simulação de Monte Carlo e Programação Matemática. Do ponto de vista prático, a importância desta tese reside no fato de métodos econômicos serem considerados mais amigáveis aos tomadores de decisão, uma vez que o seu procedimento é transparente e o resultado financeiro é claro para todos os envolvidos. Paralelamente, o procedimento probabilístico permite qualificar a informação disponibilizada aos tomadores de decisão uma vez que é possível entender a extensão da incerteza associada aos critérios utilizados na tomada de decisão. / This study's main objective is to develop and present an economic-probabilistic model for projects selection and prioritization. The proposed model uses 38 criteria, contemplates the interdependencies among projects and allows the quantification of benefits, investments and associated uncertainties, providing a comprehensive analysis of expected returns for the projects. The work was conducted comprising five main stages: (i) identify and select the main criteria for projects selection and evaluation; (ii) identify the main methods used in projects selection and prioritization; (iii) integrating the selected criteria to a project selection and prioritization method in a model capable of evaluating the economic returns and the impact of the uncertainties involved in the outcome of each project; (iv) improve the model to be able to identify interdependencies among projects in the portfolio, and (v) test and partially validate the extended model by application to the reality of companies. The main contribution of this thesis is the proposition of a model that combines economic and probabilistic methods, following relatively simple procedures, but able to account for interdependencies and uncertainty among projects. The proposed model evaluates qualitative and quantitative aspects and uses Monte Carlo simulation and Linear Programming. From a practical standpoint, the importance of this thesis lies in the fact that economic methods are considered more friendly to decision makers, since its procedure is transparent and the bottom line is clear to all involved. Moreover, the probabilistic procedure allows to qualify the information available to decision makers since it is possible to understand the extent of uncertainty associated with the criteria used in decision making.

A composição de um portfolio de projetos é realizada de acordo com um conjunto de critérios de seleção e avaliação de projetos, que permite identificar quais projetos trazem maior valor, benefícios e alinhamento com as estratégias definidas pela organização, para um determinado horizonte de tempo. O grau de exposição a riscos do portfolio de projetos é um dos critérios mais importantes a ser considerado na composição e no balanceamento do portfolio, uma vez que indica a magnitude dos desvios a que o portfolio está sujeito em relação ao atendimento de seus objetivos. Este trabalho apresenta um procedimento para a avaliação do grau de exposição a riscos do portfolio de projetos, que parte dos riscos de cada projeto, e considera seus inter-relacionamentos, bem como outros riscos inerentes ao portfolio como um todo. O procedimento abrange a identificação, análise e tratamento dos riscos do portfolio e a determinação do grau de exposição a riscos no atendimento de cada objetivo e do portfolio com um todo. Através de um estudo de caso, realizado numa empresa multinacional do setor de máquinas e equipamentos, o procedimento foi testado num portfolio composto por nove dos maiores projetos de sua maior unidade de negócio. Foi possível determinar o grau de exposição a riscos do portfolio de projetos frente aos objetivos estratégicos a que se propunha atender valores determinados de margem bruta média e faturamento para o ano fiscal corrente. O estudo de caso permitiu validar a aplicabilidade do procedimento. A identificação dos riscos em comum, das interdependências e de outros riscos abrangentes permitiu identificar causas comuns e proliferações entre os riscos dos projetos e, principalmente, racionalizar recursos no tratamento dos riscos. / When building a project portfolio, evaluation and selection criteria are used to recognize which projects bring greater value, benefits and alignment with the organization strategies defined for a given period of time. One of the most relevant criteria in project portfolio composition and balancing is the risk exposure, as it indicates the magnitude of slippages to which the organization objectives are susceptible. This work presents a procedure for the evaluation of the overall project portfolio risk exposure, considering the risks of each project, the inter-relationships among them, and also other risks inherent to the portfolio as a whole. The procedure encloses portfolio risks identification, analysis and treatment and the assessment of the risk exposure in the attendance of each objective as well as for the complete portfolio. Through a case study, carried through in a world class multinational company of the capital goods sector, the risk analysis procedure has been tested in a portfolio encompassing nine major projects from its main business unit. It has been possible to define the risk exposure related to the strategic objectives this portfolio should fulfill average gross margin and revenues for the current fiscal year. The case study has allowed validating the applicability of the proposed procedure. The identification of common risks, interdependences and other overall portfolio risks has also allowed to recognize common causes, proliferation among projects and, mainly, to rationalize resources in treating these risks.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento e apresentação de um modelo econômico-probabilístico para seleção e priorização de projetos. O modelo proposto utiliza 38 critérios, contempla interdependências entre projetos e permite quantificar os investimentos, benefícios e incertezas associadas, fornecendo uma análise abrangente dos retornos esperados para os projetos. O trabalho realizado envolveu cinco etapas principais: (i) identificar e selecionar os principais critérios de avaliação e seleção de projetos; (ii) identificar os principais métodos utilizados na seleção e priorização de projetos; (iii) integrar os critérios selecionados com um método de seleção e priorização de projetos em um modelo capaz de avaliar o retorno econômico e o impacto das incertezas envolvidas no resultado de cada projeto; (iv) aprimorar o modelo validado para que seja capaz de identificar interdependência entre os projetos do portfólio; e (v) testar e validar parcialmente o modelo ampliado através da aplicação na realidade de empresas. A principal contribuição desta tese é a proposição de um modelo que combina métodos econômicos e probabilísticos, seguindo procedimentos relativamente simples, mas capazes de considerar incertezas e interdependências entre projetos. O modelo proposto avalia aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos e utiliza simulação de Monte Carlo e Programação Matemática. Do ponto de vista prático, a importância desta tese reside no fato de métodos econômicos serem considerados mais amigáveis aos tomadores de decisão, uma vez que o seu procedimento é transparente e o resultado financeiro é claro para todos os envolvidos. Paralelamente, o procedimento probabilístico permite qualificar a informação disponibilizada aos tomadores de decisão uma vez que é possível entender a extensão da incerteza associada aos critérios utilizados na tomada de decisão. / This study's main objective is to develop and present an economic-probabilistic model for projects selection and prioritization. The proposed model uses 38 criteria, contemplates the interdependencies among projects and allows the quantification of benefits, investments and associated uncertainties, providing a comprehensive analysis of expected returns for the projects. The work was conducted comprising five main stages: (i) identify and select the main criteria for projects selection and evaluation; (ii) identify the main methods used in projects selection and prioritization; (iii) integrating the selected criteria to a project selection and prioritization method in a model capable of evaluating the economic returns and the impact of the uncertainties involved in the outcome of each project; (iv) improve the model to be able to identify interdependencies among projects in the portfolio, and (v) test and partially validate the extended model by application to the reality of companies. The main contribution of this thesis is the proposition of a model that combines economic and probabilistic methods, following relatively simple procedures, but able to account for interdependencies and uncertainty among projects. The proposed model evaluates qualitative and quantitative aspects and uses Monte Carlo simulation and Linear Programming. From a practical standpoint, the importance of this thesis lies in the fact that economic methods are considered more friendly to decision makers, since its procedure is transparent and the bottom line is clear to all involved. Moreover, the probabilistic procedure allows to qualify the information available to decision makers since it is possible to understand the extent of uncertainty associated with the criteria used in decision making.

Esta pesquisa investigou quatro empresas multinacionais brasileiras em busca de suas práticas na gestão do portfólio de projetos de novos produtos. Por meio de um estudo multicaso, a pesquisa abrangeu diversos aspectos dessa gestão, tais como estratégia para novos produtos e tecnologias; mecanismos de identificação de oportunidades e fontes de idéias para novos produtos; estrutura e recursos de engenharia e P&D; técnicas preferidas para análise, seleção e priorização de projetos; mecanismos de acompanhamento no desenvolvimento dos novos produtos e revisão do portfólio. Um conjunto de práticas de gestão foi identificado e comparado a quatro modelos teóricos, o que levou à conclusão que as empresas gerenciam seu portfólio de forma heterogênea. Mesmo assim, tais práticas produzem como resultado final uma importante vantagem competitiva e podem auxiliar outras empresas na busca pela excelência na gestão da inovação por meio da gestão do seu portfólio de projetos de novos produtos. Ainda que não seja possível generalizar as conclusões acerca dos casos, os resultados apontam diversas intersecções entre as práticas encontradas nas empresas e os modelos teóricos, convergindo para um conjunto comum de práticas gerenciais que podem favorecer o desempenho de outras organizações, além de contribuir com subsídios para futuras pesquisas. / This research has investigated four Brazilian multinational companies looking for their most used practices in managing their portfolio of new product projects. To accomplish this goal, a multi-case study was undertaken. Several aspects of the new products portfolio management were explored, such as product innovation strategy; R&D structure and resources; opportunities seizing mechanisms and sources for new product ideas; preferred project evaluation and selection techniques; decision makers\' preferences and profiles; new product development measures and portfolio periodic revision. Based on this investigation, a set of practices was identified and compared to four theoretical models. It was found that the companies manage their portfolio in heterogeneous ways. However, such practices contribute to the overall innovation in the companies and produce a substantial competitive advantage. Indeed, such practices can also help other companies in achieving new products portfolio management excellence. Although the conclusions that followed through can not be generalized to a management model, the results can substantially aid other companies in leveraging their portfolio management performance and also be a relevant contribution for future research.

The aim of the final thesis Methods for IT investment evaluation and decision making is to verify relationship between strategy of the company its Enterprise Architecture and IT investments evaluation. To achieve the aim of the thesis is necessary to define the term of Enterprise Architecture and its relationship with IT Project Portfolio Management. The literature retrieval which follows after is focused on calculation of IT investment profitability and return. The calculation is very difficult due to intangible benefits which are one of the common goals of IT investments. The customer satisfaction, improve of the current business process or employees satisfaction are one of the examples of the intangible benefits. Cost/Benefit analysis is one of the methods depicted for calculation of the intangible benefits. Methods for decision support as Analytic Hierarchy Process are highlighted as the significant instrument. The risk analysis and simulation of the risk in IT investments decision making are also mentioned but according to the scope of thesis just very briefly. Major methods are used on the model example of the evaluation and decision making process to demonstrate the whole theoretical part of the thesis. The biggest added value of the final thesis is the deep analysis of the relationship between strategy of the company its Enterprise Architecture and IT investment evaluation. Entire final thesis should be used as the fundament for IT investment evaluation and decision making framework.

Project portfolio management (PPM) is considered a central part for achieving intended strategies for organisations. However, only a percentage of strategies are actually realised, and whilst much previous research has focused on the formulation of strategies, less has been directed towards the realisation. To gain further understanding of how PPM can contribute to realising strategies, this thesis studied the PPM activities of selecting projects and allocating resources, and related challenges when trying to achieve a strategically aligned project portfolio in a matrix organisation. A qualitative case study was performed at a pharmaceutical production company in Stockholm referred to as Medex. An abductive research approach was used, and the data was thematically analysed whilst striving to achieve triangulation. The study was divided into a pre-study and a main study consisting of a total of 15 semi-structured interviews with participants at different positions within the organisation, in parallel to the collection of secondary data from Medex’s intranet.    The study indicate that it is a challenge for a matrix organisation to align projects to strategy through project objectives, and that it is rather project values’ strong connection to strategy that provide a clear link between projects and strategy. It further suggests that using project value for linking projects to strategy can increase the understanding of the motivation of project priorities, as well as creating a foundation for determining if the allocation of resources is oriented towards strategy. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the challenge and necessity for top management to base their decisions on sufficient and reliable information. Moreover, the selection of projects must be performed in accordance with available resource capacity, which highlights the need for strong connections between short-, medium- and long-term resource allocation. Furthermore, the study emphasises the need for a structured way of evaluating PPM processes to improve and address associated challenges. Additionally, the high competition between resources in a matrix organisation is depicted and the study indicates that a strong focus on profits can limit the possibility of achieving a strategically aligned project portfolio. While the study is based on a single case, the findings can be regarded as transferable, at varying extents, to other companies of similar size and organisational structure as well.

Globalization allows companies to reach a larger customer base and to focus on niche markets, driving specialization. Conversely, it also lets customers choose from a wider array of options on any given market, which all together leads to increased competition. Such global scale competition is straining profitability and urges companies to innovate both strategy and operations in search of competitive advantages. The ensuing increased rate of change has placed an emphasis on achieving flexibility to ensure alignment with market needs, with companies successful in quick modifications flourishing even in face of unpredictable and unceasing turbulence. The trend toward increasing turbulence is acutely experienced by the automotive industry. Due to the commoditization of hardware in light of digitalization, the automotive industry is undergoing a shift in profitability toward software. The adaptation of strategy to the market is vital to survival, which in turn means that the operationalization of the strategy is crucial. One way to actualize the strategy is through project portfolio management (PPM). As corporate strategy and project portfolios are tightly connected, PPM is essential to implementing the strategy. It is of interest to study the flexible qualities of PPM in an individual industry moving from stable to turbulent, in order to gain insight into the challenges of that industry. The flexible properties of PPM in the automotive industry is thus of utmost importance to the survival of companies. The built-in flexibility of PPM is however not always enough and there is an increasing interest in agile PPM (APPM). So far, there is little advancement on the topic of APPM, and the need for further understanding is obvious with consideration to recent market developments, especially in the automotive industry. This thesis has employed a single case study to understand what challenges traditional companies in the automotive industry face when trying to become more agile in their project portfolio management in order to align their organization around agile practices on the team level and increase responsiveness to external changes. Adopting an abductive approach, empirical data was collected using interviews, observations, documents as well as a survey. The results of this study are twofold. Firstly, an exhaustive mapping of a major automotive company’s PPM process is presented. Secondly, this mapping is utilized to establish what PPM processes could be made more agile and what the main challenges are. / Globalisering möjliggör för företag att utöka sin kundbas och fokusera på nischmarknader, vilket driver specialisering. Kunderna kan samtidigt välja från ett större utbud av alternativ på marknaden som leder till en ökad konkurrens. Sådan global konkurrens bidrar till en lägre lönsamhet och tvingar företag att förnya sin strategi och verksamhet, i jakt på konkurrensfördelar. Den snabba förändringen har ökat kravet på att uppnå flexibilitet för att säkerställa anpassning till marknadens behov, där företag som lyckats med snabba förändringar kan prestera trots oförutsägbar och oupphörlig turbulens. Trenden mot ökad turbulens är tydligt märkbar inom bilindustrin. Allt eftersom differentierbarheten för hårdvara minskar i ljuset av digitalisering, pågår en förskjutning av lönsamheten mot mjukvara inom bilindustrin. Anpassning av strategin till marknaden är avgörande för överlevnad, vilket i sin tur innebär att strategins operationalisering är avgörande. Ett sätt att realisera strategin är genom hantering av projektportföljen (PPM). Eftersom företagsstrategi och projektportföljer är tätt sammankopplade, är PPM viktigt för att uppnå strategiska mål. PPM:s flexibla egenskaper inom bilindustrin är således av största vikt för företagens överlevnad. Det är intressant att studera flexibla egenskaper inom PPM i en stabil bransch som är under förändring för att få insikt i utmaningarna som branschen står inför. Den inbyggda flexibiliteten hos PPM är dock inte alltid tillräcklig och det finns ett ökande intresse för agil PPM (APPM). Hittills finns det få framsteg på APPM-området och behovet av ytterligare kunskap är uppenbart med tanke på den senaste marknadsutvecklingen, särskilt inom bilindustrin. I denna avhandling används en enskild fallstudie för att förstå vilka utmaningar som traditionella företag inom bilindustrin står inför när de försöker bli mer agila i sin projektportföljshantering, för att kunna linjera företaget kring agila rutiner på teamnivå och öka responsförmågan gentemot externa förändringar. Genom att utnyttja ett abduktivt tillvägagångssätt samlades empiriska data in med hjälp av intervjuer, observationer, dokument samt en enkätundersökning. Resultatet av denna studie är tvåfaldigt. Först och främst presenteras en uttömmande kartläggning av ett omfattande bilföretags PPM-process. Sedan används denna kartläggning för att fastställa vilka PPM-processer som kan göras mer agila och vilka huvudsakliga utmaningar som finns i samband med detta.

<p><strong>Introduction </strong>– Project-based organizations face a series of challenges when trying to implement and manage their project portfolios successfully in line with their strategic goals. Good project portfolio management (PPM) practices play a crucial role in maintaining well performing portfolios, but PPM is still a fairly new academic field. And it was found that the current PPM literature embodies a gap in providing explicit governance criteria to assure consistent portfolio decision-making.</p><p><strong>Problem </strong>– What are the criteria of portfolio governance that contribute to better aligning the project portfolio to organizational strategy? Do project-based organizations in fact not implement a governance framework to guide their decision-making rationale? If there is some sort of a governance framework, do project-based organizations implement it in a consistent manner every time they take portfolio-related decisions?</p><p><strong>Purpose </strong>– The purpose of this study is two-fold. First, we attempt to fill a gap in the current PPM literature by proposing a portfolio governance framework that could enhance project portfolio decision-making. Secondly, it is our goal to find out whether decision makers in project-based organizations consistently cover all issues related to portfolio governance at portfolio meetings.</p><p><strong>Methodology</strong> – The study employs both qualitative & quantitative methods to fulfill the two-fold nature of the study. A Portfolio Governance Framework, comprising 26 statements, was developed on the grounds of existing literature on PPM, strategy & governance. The proposed Framework was then used as a basis to carry out an online survey in which 31 respondents (executive level) from 25 project-based organizations (operating in Sweden) were asked about how consistent they are in discussing relevant portfolio governance issues.</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong> – The empirical findings of this study indicate that the majority of project-based companies do not employ a governance framework when it comes to portfolio decision-making. In the few cases that they do, it is mostly a set of policies that is not applied on a consistent basis.</p>