Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to address the, by scholars and managers alike, expressed need of development in the project portfolio selection. The research will aim to investigate how the selection of innovation projects portfolios could change if flexibility, and with it uncertainty, were added to the project portfolio selection. The aim is further to investigate how options value can be incorporated as additional value to a portfolio selection decision, with the goal to choose projects that maximize the goal function of the firm. Method: This thesis takes a qualitative approach as such approach is favourable when studying social science. The empirical research is carried out at a large international company conducting in an extensive amount of R&D as well working with innovation projects. The data is collected by unstructured and semi structured interviews with management at the company subjected to the study. Results: The results show, that by adapting the real options framework to a static way of selecting projects, the incorporation of flexibility to the selection process can add economic value by accounting for options value and handle uncertainty. The real options framework will substantiate a dynamic approach to the selection process of innovation projects, as flexibility is changing the selection process from individual project selection to the selection of portfolios. / Syfte: Syftet med följande uppsats är belysa och utveckla det, av forskare och chefer, uttryckta behov av utveckling av projektportföljval. Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka hur valet av innovationsprojekt genom portföljvalsmodeller kan förändras om flexibilitet och osäkerhet adderas till beslutsprocessen. Syftet är vidare att undersöka hur ytterligare värde kan inkorporeras i ett beslut, med målet att välja den portfölj som maximerar företagets målfunktion. Metod: Denna uppsats tar en kvalitativ metodansats då ett sådant tillvägagångssätt är fördelaktigt i studier av samhällsvetenskap. Den empiriska undersökningen har bedrivits på ett stort internationellt företag vilket deltar i ett omfattande FoU arbete, samt i stor skala arbetar med innovationsprojekt. Data har samlats in genom ostrukturerade samt semistrukturerade intervjuer med ledningen på företaget. Slutsatser: Resultaten visar att genom att inkorporera reella optioner, i en statisk beslutsprocess, så kan ett bättre beslutsunderlag genereras genom inkluderandet av osäkerhet och värdet av optioner. Ett sådant beslutsunderlag genereras genom att real options adderar flexibilitet till urvalsprocessen. Genom att inkorporera flexibilitet kommer en statisk metod att välja individuella projekt på, skifta till fördel för en dynamisk metod att välja portföljer.

<p>Selection of right sets of projects is considerably critical for organizations to successfully achieve their competitive advantages and corporate strategies. Due to limited resources and dynamic changes in business environment, this kind of selection is quite challenging for organizations. Beside one hundred selection tools and techniques, academics and practitioners have studied and recommended complex selection frameworks to facilitate the selection of right projects. However, these theoretical frameworks are not applied by private corporations in Vietnam. Therefore, this dissertation is intended to better understand the academic and practical literature about project portfolio selection; study current practices of project selection that private corporations in Vietnam are using; and propose a framework that is beneficially adaptable to these private corporations. A multiple-case study strategy accessing qualitative data through observations and semi-structure interviews is designed to investigate how private corporations select their project portfolio under the current contexts of booming economy in Vietnam to ensure successful realization of their growth and development strategy. The recommendations resulted from literature review and investigations do not only support the investigated corporations to improve the quantity and quality of their investment project portfolio(s) but also facilitate possible adaptation to project portfolio selection by other private corporations.</p>

Selection of right sets of projects is considerably critical for organizations to successfully achieve their competitive advantages and corporate strategies. Due to limited resources and dynamic changes in business environment, this kind of selection is quite challenging for organizations. Beside one hundred selection tools and techniques, academics and practitioners have studied and recommended complex selection frameworks to facilitate the selection of right projects. However, these theoretical frameworks are not applied by private corporations in Vietnam. Therefore, this dissertation is intended to better understand the academic and practical literature about project portfolio selection; study current practices of project selection that private corporations in Vietnam are using; and propose a framework that is beneficially adaptable to these private corporations. A multiple-case study strategy accessing qualitative data through observations and semi-structure interviews is designed to investigate how private corporations select their project portfolio under the current contexts of booming economy in Vietnam to ensure successful realization of their growth and development strategy. The recommendations resulted from literature review and investigations do not only support the investigated corporations to improve the quantity and quality of their investment project portfolio(s) but also facilitate possible adaptation to project portfolio selection by other private corporations.

With the advent of globalization and knowledge economic era, organizations have to face an increasingly competitive business environment. With limited resources, it is imperative for organizations to allocate them effectively, to focus on potential projects, to choose high value-added projects, and to find out the proper project portfolio. The purpose of this research is to investigate the decision model and the operational mechanism of project portfolio selection for military investment and to analyze the characteristics of related projects. Finally, this research mainly proposes a decision model for project portfolio selection and the measurement of portfolio performance and develops a portfolio selection decision support system to provide a communicative platform and information for decision makers and project managers. This will improve portfolio performance, reduce the crowding out effect of organizational resources, and enhance the linkage of both project and organizational goals.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Everyone, generally. would like to make good decisions, or receive the greatest benefit from a decision made. Companies are no different in this respect and the process of selecting an investment project portfolio has become an important activity. This is, further, complicated by the fact that companies have multiple, and often, conflicting objectives in a situation of capital rationing. This study project proposes a conceptual framework for project portfolio establishment, for application in an industrial manufacturing type environment, by integrating project evaluation and selection, a multi-criteria decision analysis technique and group decision-making. The project issues, the selection of a multi-criteria decision analysis technique and group decisionmaking are dealt with sequentially and then integrated to develop this conceptual framework. The explorative part of this study project deals with project evaluation and selection issues, and the concept of the triple bottom line is proposed to capture the multiple objectives of the company's decision context. Further, decision analysis concepts are reviewed and three categories of multi-criteria decision analysis methods identified. Selected methods in these categories are described, examined and the advantages and drawbacks of the different categories highlighted. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is proposed as the underlying multi-criteria decision analysis technique to support this conceptual framework. Group decision-making is investigated, and aggregation procedures and a method of consistency checking suggested. Finally, the framework is applied to a hypothetical case and the results presented. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Oor die algemeen wil almal goeie besluite neem, of maksimum voordeel uit die besluite trek. Maatskappye het dieselfde motivering en die aktiwiteit om 'n kapitaalinvesteringsportfolio saam te stel word as van groot belang beskou. Hierdie aktiwiteit is ook deur die werklikheid van vele, dikwels teenstrydige doelwitte sowel as beperkte fondse bemoeilik. In hierdie werkstuk word 'n begripsraamwerk vir die daarstelling van 'n investeringsportfolio vir kapitaalprojekte in 'n nywerheidsomgewing, wat projekevaluering en - keuring, veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemingstegnieke en groepsbesluitneming insluit, voorgestel. Projekverwante faktore, die keuse van 'n veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemingstegniek en derdens groepsbesluitneming word apart bespreek en daarna in die bogenoemde raamwerk geintegreer. Die navorsingsgedeelte van hierdie werkstuk verwys na die evaluering en keuse van projekte. Die begrip van 'n drievoudige maatstaf ('triple bottom line') om die kompleksiteit van 'n maatskappy se besluitnemingsdoelwitte te illustreer, word ondersteun. Daarna word besluitnemingsbegrippe bespreek en drie kategoriee van tegnieke vir veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemings uitgelig. Onder hierdie kategoriee is verkose metodes beskryf en ondersoek, en voor- en nadele van die kategoriee uitgewys. Die Analitiese Hierargie proses word voorgestel as basis van die begripsraamwerk. Groepsbesluitneming word ondersoek en versamelingsmetodes met kontrole vir konsekwentheid word voorgestel. Laastens word die besluitnemingsraamwerk op 'n denkbeeldige geval toegepas en word die resultate bespreek.

abstract: Project portfolio selection (PPS) is a significant problem faced by most organizations. How to best select the many innovative ideas that a company has developed to deploy in a proper and sustained manner with a balanced allocation of its resources over multiple time periods is one of vital importance to a company's goals. This dissertation details the steps involved in deploying a more intuitive portfolio selection framework that facilitates bringing analysts and management to a consensus on ongoing company efforts and buy into final decisions. A binary integer programming selection model that constructs an efficient frontier allows the evaluation of portfolios on many different criteria and allows decision makers (DM) to bring their experience and insight to the table when making a decision is discussed. A binary fractional integer program provides additional choices by optimizing portfolios on cost-benefit ratios over multiple time periods is also presented. By combining this framework with an `elimination by aspects' model of decision making, DMs evaluate portfolios on various objectives and ensure the selection of a portfolio most in line with their goals. By presenting a modeling framework to easily model a large number of project inter-dependencies and an evolutionary algorithm that is intelligently guided in the search for attractive portfolios by a beam search heuristic, practitioners are given a ready recipe to solve big problem instances to generate attractive project portfolios for their organizations. Finally, this dissertation attempts to address the problem of risk and uncertainty in project portfolio selection. After exploring the selection of portfolios based on trade-offs between a primary benefit and a primary cost, the third important dimension of uncertainty of outcome and the risk a decision maker is willing to take on in their quest to select the best portfolio for their organization is examined. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Industrial Engineering 2018