<p>Bakgrund: Bioteknikbranschen är en bransch som präglas av stor osäkerhet. Många företags fortsatta existens beror på om företagets projekt eller produkt får godkänt av läkemedelsverket, vilket gör en värdering av bolaget under utvecklingsperioden mycket svår. Den vanligaste metoden vid värdering av bioteknikföretag idag är kassaflödesmetoden. Denna metod anses dock av vissa aktörer på den finansiella marknaden vara otillräcklig. Istället förespråkas en metod med hjälp av reala optioner som de anser tar bättre hänsyn till den osäkerhet som omgärdar bioteknikföretag.</p><p>Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att utveckla en real optionsmodell för värdering av Bioteknikföretag samt att pröva denna på ett fallföretag.</p><p>Genomförande: För att uppfylla syftet utgicks från existerande företagsvärderingsmodeller och befintlig optionsteori. Vidare studerades reala optioner, och vilka av dessa som på ett bra sätt kunde förknippas med den osäkerhet som existerar i bioteknikföretag. Genom hela processen med utvecklandet av värderingsmodellen användes ett fallföretag, Diamyd Medical AB, och dess finansiella historia samt framtidsprognoser. Därutöver har information om bioteknikmarknaden och de förutsättningar företagen inom denna bransch ställs inför använts.</p><p>Slutsats: Den skapade värderingsmodellen med hjälp av reala optioner visade sig på vårt fallföretag vara ett mycket användbart redskap och som på ett bra sätt klarar av att hantera den osäkerhet som omgärdar många bioteknikföretag och andra forskningsintensiva företag.</p> / <p>Background: The Biotech industry is an industry that is characterized by great uncertainty. Many companies future existence depends on if the company’s project or product gets an approval from the deciding authority, which makes a valuation of the company during the developing period very difficult. The most utilized method when valuing biotech firm today is the cash flow method. This method is nevertheless considered inadequate by some actors at the financial market. Instead a method using real options is recommended by some experts, which they think takes better concern to the uncertainty that surrounds biotech firms.</p><p>Purpose: The purpose with this thesis is to develop a real option model to use when valuing biotech firm, and to try it on a case company.</p><p>Implementation: To attain the goal for the thesis, the authors started out with the traditional methods of valuation and the existing theory surrounding financial options. Furthermore the authors studied real option and which of them that could be applied on the complex nature of biotechnology firms. Throughout the whole development process of the valuation model the authors used Diamyd Medical AB as a case company and in addition to that they also used more general information about the biotechnology sector.</p><p>Conclusion: The valuation model containing real options proved to be a useful instrument to establish a monetary value on biotechnology firms.</p>

Bakgrund: Bioteknikbranschen är en bransch som präglas av stor osäkerhet. Många företags fortsatta existens beror på om företagets projekt eller produkt får godkänt av läkemedelsverket, vilket gör en värdering av bolaget under utvecklingsperioden mycket svår. Den vanligaste metoden vid värdering av bioteknikföretag idag är kassaflödesmetoden. Denna metod anses dock av vissa aktörer på den finansiella marknaden vara otillräcklig. Istället förespråkas en metod med hjälp av reala optioner som de anser tar bättre hänsyn till den osäkerhet som omgärdar bioteknikföretag. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att utveckla en real optionsmodell för värdering av Bioteknikföretag samt att pröva denna på ett fallföretag. Genomförande: För att uppfylla syftet utgicks från existerande företagsvärderingsmodeller och befintlig optionsteori. Vidare studerades reala optioner, och vilka av dessa som på ett bra sätt kunde förknippas med den osäkerhet som existerar i bioteknikföretag. Genom hela processen med utvecklandet av värderingsmodellen användes ett fallföretag, Diamyd Medical AB, och dess finansiella historia samt framtidsprognoser. Därutöver har information om bioteknikmarknaden och de förutsättningar företagen inom denna bransch ställs inför använts. Slutsats: Den skapade värderingsmodellen med hjälp av reala optioner visade sig på vårt fallföretag vara ett mycket användbart redskap och som på ett bra sätt klarar av att hantera den osäkerhet som omgärdar många bioteknikföretag och andra forskningsintensiva företag. / Background: The Biotech industry is an industry that is characterized by great uncertainty. Many companies future existence depends on if the company’s project or product gets an approval from the deciding authority, which makes a valuation of the company during the developing period very difficult. The most utilized method when valuing biotech firm today is the cash flow method. This method is nevertheless considered inadequate by some actors at the financial market. Instead a method using real options is recommended by some experts, which they think takes better concern to the uncertainty that surrounds biotech firms. Purpose: The purpose with this thesis is to develop a real option model to use when valuing biotech firm, and to try it on a case company. Implementation: To attain the goal for the thesis, the authors started out with the traditional methods of valuation and the existing theory surrounding financial options. Furthermore the authors studied real option and which of them that could be applied on the complex nature of biotechnology firms. Throughout the whole development process of the valuation model the authors used Diamyd Medical AB as a case company and in addition to that they also used more general information about the biotechnology sector. Conclusion: The valuation model containing real options proved to be a useful instrument to establish a monetary value on biotechnology firms.

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to address the, by scholars and managers alike, expressed need of development in the project portfolio selection. The research will aim to investigate how the selection of innovation projects portfolios could change if flexibility, and with it uncertainty, were added to the project portfolio selection. The aim is further to investigate how options value can be incorporated as additional value to a portfolio selection decision, with the goal to choose projects that maximize the goal function of the firm. Method: This thesis takes a qualitative approach as such approach is favourable when studying social science. The empirical research is carried out at a large international company conducting in an extensive amount of R&amp;D as well working with innovation projects. The data is collected by unstructured and semi structured interviews with management at the company subjected to the study. Results: The results show, that by adapting the real options framework to a static way of selecting projects, the incorporation of flexibility to the selection process can add economic value by accounting for options value and handle uncertainty. The real options framework will substantiate a dynamic approach to the selection process of innovation projects, as flexibility is changing the selection process from individual project selection to the selection of portfolios. / Syfte: Syftet med följande uppsats är belysa och utveckla det, av forskare och chefer, uttryckta behov av utveckling av projektportföljval. Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka hur valet av innovationsprojekt genom portföljvalsmodeller kan förändras om flexibilitet och osäkerhet adderas till beslutsprocessen. Syftet är vidare att undersöka hur ytterligare värde kan inkorporeras i ett beslut, med målet att välja den portfölj som maximerar företagets målfunktion. Metod: Denna uppsats tar en kvalitativ metodansats då ett sådant tillvägagångssätt är fördelaktigt i studier av samhällsvetenskap. Den empiriska undersökningen har bedrivits på ett stort internationellt företag vilket deltar i ett omfattande FoU arbete, samt i stor skala arbetar med innovationsprojekt. Data har samlats in genom ostrukturerade samt semistrukturerade intervjuer med ledningen på företaget. Slutsatser: Resultaten visar att genom att inkorporera reella optioner, i en statisk beslutsprocess, så kan ett bättre beslutsunderlag genereras genom inkluderandet av osäkerhet och värdet av optioner. Ett sådant beslutsunderlag genereras genom att real options adderar flexibilitet till urvalsprocessen. Genom att inkorporera flexibilitet kommer en statisk metod att välja individuella projekt på, skifta till fördel för en dynamisk metod att välja portföljer.

Com a intensificação da competitividade do mercado, empresas que realizam escolhas equivocadas podem comprometer significativamente sua atuação. Portanto, para se destacar dentre as demais, decisões não mais podem ser intuitivas e perdas tornam-se inadmissíveis. Sob o aspecto financeiro, a análise apropriada de projetos de investimento é fundamental para o crescimento solidificado da firma. Quando questionados sobre a implantação de determinado projeto, gestores adeptos de diferentes métodos de análise de investimento tendem a tomar a mesma decisão. Porém, ao depararem-se com uma diversidade de projetos de investimento, métodos usuais de análise de investimento causam divergências, conturbando o processo decisório. Ao priorizar algum projeto de investimento, aparentemente atraente economicamente, em detrimento de outros, a firma pode vir a sofrer prejuízos financeiros, decorrentes de características relevantes desconsideradas pelos métodos usualmente utilizados. A partir da análise crítica de métodos determinísticos, métodos que apreciam a incerteza e métodos que consideram a flexibilidade dos projetos, tornou-se factível a retificação da tomada de decisão na comparação entre investimentos. Assim, adequações dos métodos usuais de análise de investimento foram apresentadas como forma de conduzir a resultados mais eficientes. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho desenvolve os conceitos de valor presente líquido equivalente (VPLE) e taxa interna de retorno equivalente (TIRE), como métodos determinísticos voltados exclusivamente para a tomada de decisão diante de diversas opções de investimento. Em seguida, com a flexibilização de tais conceitos, determina-se o conceito de opções reais equivalentes como principal ferramenta para a comparação parametrizada de projetos de investimento. Para a verificação de sua contribuição na análise econômica, um estudo de caso foi realizado e seus resultados comparados com aqueles esperados pelos métodos tradicionais. Logo, concluiu-se que, ao avaliar projetos sob as mesmas condições de contorno, diferentes ferramentas levam a semelhantes resultados. Porém, a parametrização das variáveis e a flexibilização permitida pelas opções reais equivalentes adicionam valor ao investimento e, conseqüentemente, à empresa. / Considering the increasing level of competition of many markets, companies that take wrong decision choices for their businesses may compromise its performances. Therefore, in order to reach better performance than its competitors, the decisions should not be based on intuition and unnecessary losses become unacceptable. Under the financial scope, the appropriate analysis of investment projects is essential to promote a solidified growth of a firm. When asked about the implementation of some project, managers that make use of different methods of investment analysis tend to take the same decision choice. However, when the situation involves a variety of investment projects, the usual methods of investment analysis can imply in different results, disturbing the decision process. When any investment project considered apparently more economically attractive is put up front in any company\'s choice, the ones that are taking this decision may suffer financial losses due to some important issues not considered by the usually methods used. By using a critical analysis of deterministic methods, methods that assess the uncertainty and methods that consider some flexibility of projects, it becomes of major importance to apply some decision-making process to compare the possibilities of investment projects. So, some arrangements in the usual methods of analysis of investment were presented in order to reach more efficient goals. That is the reason that this research development the concepts of equivalent net present value (ENPV) and equivalent internal rate of return (EIRR), as deterministic methods used exclusively to the decision making with a variety of investment projects. After this, with the flexibility of this concepts, it is established the concept of equivalent real options as it main tool to make a parameterized comparison of investment projects. To prove its contribution to the economic analysis techniques, it was set an application of the proposed methodology and its results were compared to the ones obtained if the traditional methods. Therefore, this paper work got the conclusion that, if analyzed investment projects under the same conditions, different tools generate similar results. However, the same parameters and the flexibility given if used Equivalent Real Options adds value to investment and, consequently, to the company.

Com a intensificação da competitividade do mercado, empresas que realizam escolhas equivocadas podem comprometer significativamente sua atuação. Portanto, para se destacar dentre as demais, decisões não mais podem ser intuitivas e perdas tornam-se inadmissíveis. Sob o aspecto financeiro, a análise apropriada de projetos de investimento é fundamental para o crescimento solidificado da firma. Quando questionados sobre a implantação de determinado projeto, gestores adeptos de diferentes métodos de análise de investimento tendem a tomar a mesma decisão. Porém, ao depararem-se com uma diversidade de projetos de investimento, métodos usuais de análise de investimento causam divergências, conturbando o processo decisório. Ao priorizar algum projeto de investimento, aparentemente atraente economicamente, em detrimento de outros, a firma pode vir a sofrer prejuízos financeiros, decorrentes de características relevantes desconsideradas pelos métodos usualmente utilizados. A partir da análise crítica de métodos determinísticos, métodos que apreciam a incerteza e métodos que consideram a flexibilidade dos projetos, tornou-se factível a retificação da tomada de decisão na comparação entre investimentos. Assim, adequações dos métodos usuais de análise de investimento foram apresentadas como forma de conduzir a resultados mais eficientes. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho desenvolve os conceitos de valor presente líquido equivalente (VPLE) e taxa interna de retorno equivalente (TIRE), como métodos determinísticos voltados exclusivamente para a tomada de decisão diante de diversas opções de investimento. Em seguida, com a flexibilização de tais conceitos, determina-se o conceito de opções reais equivalentes como principal ferramenta para a comparação parametrizada de projetos de investimento. Para a verificação de sua contribuição na análise econômica, um estudo de caso foi realizado e seus resultados comparados com aqueles esperados pelos métodos tradicionais. Logo, concluiu-se que, ao avaliar projetos sob as mesmas condições de contorno, diferentes ferramentas levam a semelhantes resultados. Porém, a parametrização das variáveis e a flexibilização permitida pelas opções reais equivalentes adicionam valor ao investimento e, conseqüentemente, à empresa. / Considering the increasing level of competition of many markets, companies that take wrong decision choices for their businesses may compromise its performances. Therefore, in order to reach better performance than its competitors, the decisions should not be based on intuition and unnecessary losses become unacceptable. Under the financial scope, the appropriate analysis of investment projects is essential to promote a solidified growth of a firm. When asked about the implementation of some project, managers that make use of different methods of investment analysis tend to take the same decision choice. However, when the situation involves a variety of investment projects, the usual methods of investment analysis can imply in different results, disturbing the decision process. When any investment project considered apparently more economically attractive is put up front in any company\'s choice, the ones that are taking this decision may suffer financial losses due to some important issues not considered by the usually methods used. By using a critical analysis of deterministic methods, methods that assess the uncertainty and methods that consider some flexibility of projects, it becomes of major importance to apply some decision-making process to compare the possibilities of investment projects. So, some arrangements in the usual methods of analysis of investment were presented in order to reach more efficient goals. That is the reason that this research development the concepts of equivalent net present value (ENPV) and equivalent internal rate of return (EIRR), as deterministic methods used exclusively to the decision making with a variety of investment projects. After this, with the flexibility of this concepts, it is established the concept of equivalent real options as it main tool to make a parameterized comparison of investment projects. To prove its contribution to the economic analysis techniques, it was set an application of the proposed methodology and its results were compared to the ones obtained if the traditional methods. Therefore, this paper work got the conclusion that, if analyzed investment projects under the same conditions, different tools generate similar results. However, the same parameters and the flexibility given if used Equivalent Real Options adds value to investment and, consequently, to the company.