Dans le cadre des débats sur la transition énergétique, l'implémentation des Smart Grids est avancée comme une part de la solution pour répondre à la fois aux questions climatiques et aux enjeux énergétiques. Les modèles de prospective constituent des outils d'aide à la décision permettant d'orienter les trajectoires énergétiques afin de satisfaire aux futures demandes en tenant compte de contraintes environnementales et techniques. Ces modèles historiques, caractérisés principalement par l'adéquation de l'offre à la demande doivent désormais évoluer pour intégrer les développements futurs attendus du système électrique. Dans ce travail, nous avons implémenté dans une approche de long terme différentes fonctionnalités propres aux Smart Grids (gestion de la demande, stockage, énergies renouvelables). Cette approche nous permet d'évaluer les bénéfices liés à chacune d'entre elles séparément, ou bien conjointement au travers de bouquets de solutions, tenant ainsi compte des possibles interactions entre ces fonctionnalités. Nous avons également intégré un indicateur reflétant le niveau de fiabilité du système électrique dans notre modèle. Ce paramètre supplémentaire permet de contraindre les futurs systèmes électriques afin qu'ils garantissent un niveau de service en terme de fourniture électrique identique à celui des systèmes existants. Cette étude est illustrée par le cas de l'île de la Réunion, qui s'est donné pour objectif de produire d'ici 2030 son électricité à partir de sources uniquement renouvelables, et pour qui les fonctionnalités de Smart Grids pourraient constituer un levier intéressant.

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a chronic and progressive neurodegenerative disease. The diagnosis is based on a combination of the motor signs: tremor, bradykinesia, rigidity and postural abnormalities. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is common early in the disease and a large proportion of patients with PD develop dementia (PDD). Associations between motor symptoms and cognitive decline have been suggested but the results are inconclusive due to differences in the selection of participants and variables tested. Large population based studies with comprehensive neuropsychological investigation in newly diagnosed cases with PD followed prospectively are rare. The aim of this thesis was to improve characterization and understanding of cognition in PD, and to explore the relationship to motor impairment in the early phase of PD. Methods: All new patients with suspected idiopathic parkinsonism in the catchment area (142 ooo inhabitants) were examined during a period of five years and four months. Among other investigations, a comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation was carried out in 119 of 148 patients with PD together with 30 age matched healthy controls. Assessments were repeated after one three and five years. Results: Patients performed worse than healthy controls in a majority of neuropsychological tests. MCI at the time of diagnosis were found in 36% according to recently published MCI criteria. Thirty % were cognitively impaired using another definition. One fourth of the patients developed PDD within five years after diagnosis and 25 % of those with MCI at baseline reversed back to normal cognition. Age and MCI were significant predictors of dementia. Education was an independent predictor for severe cognitive dysfunction at diagnosis but did not predict PDD. Patients with MCI converting to PDD had worse performance on visuospatial function, semantic fluency, episodic memory, mental flexibility and conceptual thinking. There were no differences in cognitive performance between patients with predominant Postural and Gait Disturbances (PIGD) and the tremor dominant subtype at the baseline investigation and belonging to the PIGD subgroup at baseline did not predict PDD. Dementia converters declined more rapidly than non-converters in posture/gait function. Associations between bradykinesia and measures of executive functions and working memory were found, and between posture and gait disturbances and visuospatial function. Some of these associations were persistent after one year. Patients receiving the dopamine agonist pramipexole performed significantly worse on a measure of verbal fluency at the one year follow up. Conclusions: The differences in proportions of cognitively impaired in the different studies emphasize the value of joint criteria for PD-MCI. Even when using such criteria, a substantial proportion of patients revert back to normal function. The increase in motor disability in patients with PDD could have several different causes that need to be further investigated. Associated motor and cognitive dysfunctions could reflect common pathophysiological processes in partly shared networks. Both dopaminergic and non-dopaminergic motor and cognitive functions seems to be involved in PDD which suggests that pharmacological treatment in PD needs to go beyond the scope of dopaminergic deficiency in search for new therapies that would also be effective for non-motor symptoms. / NYPUM

Šiame baigiamajame darbe išanalizuotas bendrovės turimas lokomotyvų parkas, jų sudėtis, amžius, techninės charakteristikos. Apžvelgtos lokomotyvų parko atnaujinimo programos. Atlikta prekinių-magistralinių lokomotyvų gedimų analizė iki parko atnaujinimo ir po jo. Pateikta krovinių vežimų analizė iki 2007 metų bei prognozė iki 2030 m. Apžvelgti AB „Lietuvos geležinkeliai“ vykdomi bei numatomi įgyvendinti infrastruktūros projektai, kurie gali turėti įtakos lokomotyvų parko kitimo ilgalaikei strategijai. Remiantis teorinėmis formulėmis ir informacija, nustatytomis prielaidomis bei lokomotyvų apyvartos analize buvo išvesta formulė, pagal kurią skaičiuoti turimų, numatytų įsigyti bei modernizuotų lokomotyvų pajėgumai parko kitimo perspektyvoje ir palyginti su prognozuojamu krovinių srautų didėjimu. Identifikavus reikalingus lokomotyvų pajėgumus ir jų papildomą kiekį perspektyvoje pasiūlytas racionaliausias lokomotyvų parko kitimo ilgalaikės strategijos variantas. / The locomotive park, its composition, age and technical characteristics of stock company are analyzed in this master’s dissertation. There are reviewed renewal programmes of Locomotive Park. Here have been analyzed breakdowns of freight locomotives till and after renewal program. Here have been analyzed freight haulage till 2007 year and forecast till 2030 year. There is reviewed JSC “Lietuvos geležinkeliai“ supposed infrastructure project which could influence to the locomotives fleet long-rate strategic. Considering to theoretical formulas and information, selected presumptions and locomotive work analyses was educed formula in accordance with was calculated locomotives potential work in the future and compared with forecast of freight haulage. Here have been identified the demand and amount of locomotive work in the prospect and suggested most rational development prospects of the locomotive park of JSC "Lietuvos geležinkeliai".

We assess empirically the role played by prospective ageing measures as a predictor of income growth in Europe. We show that prospective ageing measures which move beyond chronological age and incorporate changes in life expectancy are able to explain better the recent long-run growth experience of European economies. The improvement in explanatory power of prospective ageing indicators as compared to standard measures based on chronological age is particularly relevant for long-run economic growth horizons. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Objectives: Inadequate maternal vitamin D (25(OH)D) levels during pregnancy may affect primary tooth calcification predisposing enamel hypoplasia (EH), a risk factor for Early Childhood Caries (ECC). The purpose of the study was to determine the relationship between 25(OH)D status of expectant mothers and the incidence of EH and ECC among their infants. Methods: This prospective study recruited expectant mothers during their second trimester of pregnancy. A prenatal questionnaire was completed and serum sample drawn for a 25(OH)D assay. Infant dental exams, scheduled at approximately 12 months of age, determined EH and ECC, at which time the mother completed a second questionnaire. The dental examiner was blinded to each mother's prenatal vitamin D status. Results: 207 women, 90% of whom self-declared Aboriginal heritage, were enrolled at a mean age of 19.0 ± 4.7 years. The mean serum 25(OH)D was 48.1 ± 24.4 nmol/L. 35% had levels ≤ 35 nmol/L, a formerly-defined threshold of deficiency. Only 10% of women had concentrations ≥ 80 nmol/L, denoting adequacy. 135 infants were examined at 16.1 ± 7.4 months of age. EH was identified in 22% of infants, 23% had ECC and (36% ECC when white spot lesions were included). Mothers of children with EH had lower mean serum 25(OH)D concentrations during pregnancy than mothers of children without EH (43.2 ± 21.1 vs. 51.4 ± 27.4 nmol/L, p=.072). Mothers of children with ECC had lower 25(OH)D levels than mothers whose children were caries-free (41.4 ± 20.4 vs. 52.4 ± 27.4 nmol/L, p=.045). The rate of untreated decay was inversely related with maternal vitamin D concentrations (p<.001). Infants with EH were significantly more likely to have ECC (p<.001). Logistic regression identified low maternal calcium levels (p=.034), not having heard of vitamin D (p=.036), and not using margarine daily (p=.024) as being significantly associated with EH in the primary dentition of infants. Backwards logistic regression revealed that EH (p<.001), infant age (p=.002), and lower 25(OH)D levels during pregnancy (p=.019) were significantly associated with ECC. Conclusions: This study shows for the first time that maternal vitamin-D levels may influence primary dentition and the development of ECC in their babies.

Background: The aim of this thesis was to study the relationship of pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of sex steroid hormones (androgens, estradiol, 17-hydroxyprogesterone, and progesterone), growth factors (insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), placental growth hormone (GH)), sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) overall, and by tumor invasiveness and histology. A longitudinal study was used to assess patterns of hormonal changes during a single pregnancy, and in two consecutive pregnancies. Materials &amp; Methods: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort and the Northern Sweden Maternity Cohort. A total of 1 052 EOC cases were identified through linkages with the cancer registries in both countries. For each case, 2-3 controls were selected. Cases and controls were matched on cohort, age and date at blood draw, as well as for parity at blood draw and at diagnosis (n=2 695). Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals [CI] were estimated using conditional logistic regression. The longitudinal study was based on 71 pregnant Finnish women, who donated blood samples in each trimester of pregnancy. Results: Higher androgen concentrations were associated with an increased risk of overall EOC (e.g., testosterone ORT3 vs. T1: 1.56 [1.30-1.87], ptrend&lt;0.0001), while the risk of endometrioid tumors increased with higher estradiol concentrations (ORT3 vs. T1: 2.76 [1.04-7.33], ptrend=0.03). Higher IGF-I was associated with a non-significant decrease in risk for invasive (ORT3 vs. T1: 0.79 [0.62-1.02], ptrend=0.07) and endometrioid tumors (ORT3 vs. T1: 0.55 [0.28-1.07], ptrend=0.07). The inverse association between IGF-I levels and risk of invasive EOC was stronger in analyses limited to women aged &lt;55 years at diagnosis (ORT3 vs. T1: 0.74 [0.57-0.96], ptrend=0.03). No associations were observed between pre-diagnostic progesterone, SHBG, placental GH, and AMH with EOC risk overall, or by tumor invasiveness and histology. The longitudinal study showed that hormone concentrations were more strongly correlated between consecutive trimesters of a pregnancy than between the 1st and 3rd trimesters. Further, 3rd trimester hormone concentrations can be estimated from 1st or 2nd trimester measurements. Conclusion: Higher pre-diagnostic androgens, estradiol, and IGF-I are associated with EOC risk, and associations differ by tumor invasiveness and histology.

Zentall, Steirn, and Jackson-Smith (1990) found evidence for dual coding in pigeons in a radial maze analog task. Specifically, they found that pigeons used retrospective coding in which previously chosen keys were remembered when a delay was interpolated early in a trial and prospective coding in which to-be-visited keys were remembered when a delay was interpolated late in a trial. An alternative explanation, the criterion shift hypothesis proposed by Brown, Wheeler, and Riley (1989), suggests that these data are consistent with dual coding because of an artifact of the correction procedures used by Zentall et al. The criterion hypothesis suggests that retrospective coding is used and that pigeons make choices more carefully after many choices have been made on delay trials as compared to control trials, which creates the appearance of prospective coding later in a trial. The present experiments tested this hypothesis using a new testing trial procedure and new, more conservative control trials. In experiment 1, the results of Zentall et al. were replicated using a fixed delay procedure instead of their original progressive delay procedure. Experiment 2 used a forced choice procedure after the delay to make the probability of making an error 50% on each trial type. Control trials also included a forced choice procedure to eliminate the assumptions required by the corrections procedure used by Zentall et al. The results were inconsistent with the retrospective coding account predicted by the criterion shift hypothesis and with the dual coding hypothesis. Instead, the results were consistent with a prospective coding account in which to-be-visited keys were remembered. These results were replicated in Experiment 3 using the pigeons from Experiment 1. The present findings have important implications for the field of comparative cognition.

This study examined validity of the Life History Calendar by comparing retrospective and prospective reports of adolescent substance use. Agreement was calculated using kappa and phi coefficients for dichotomous variables, and Bivariate correlations for average substance use. Effects of potential personality, psychopathology, and demographic moderators on agreement were assessed through hierarchical regression analyses and curvilinear relations determined. Results reflected moderate agreement between retrospective and prospective reports of substance use, moderated by personality and psychopathology variables, particularly Agreeableness, symptoms of antisocial personality disorder, and symptoms of substance abuse. Agreement between retrospective and prospective reports was adequate for reports of alcohol and marijuana use for at least six years after initial reports of use. Agreement for cigarette reports was adequate a year after initial reporting.

L'île de La Réunion, inscrite au patrimoine mondial de l'UNESCO pour la beauté de ses paysages et pour sa biodiversité exceptionnelle, va accueillir dans les prochaines années une population de plus en plus importante. Les documents de planification réglementant l'évolution de l'urbanisation dans l'île doivent donc en tenir compte afin de gérer au mieux l'évolution et la structuration du foncier local. Dans un contexte de recherche pluridisciplinaire, l'enjeu de nos travaux est donc de proposer des méthodes et outils facilitant les interactions entre les informaticiens et les thématiciens qui apportent leur expertise à la construction de modèles de simulation dédiés à la prospective territoriale et de faire en sorte que ces modèles puissent fournir des pistes de réflexions aux décideurs confrontés aux choix de demain afin d'aider à mettre en place une organisation des territoires qui soit la plus cohérente possible. Après avoir participé à la réalisation de DS, un modèle qui permet de simuler conjointement l'évolution de la population et celle du Mode d'Occupation des Sols à La Réunion, nous nous sommes focalisés sur l'étude de l'émergence, une notion qui apparaît dans nos simulations en environnement spatialisé, mais pour laquelle il n'existe pas d'outils génériques permettant de la manipuler. Nous l'avons définie comme étant une méta-connaissance, ce qui nous a permis de proposer une méthodologie de conception de simulations et un cadre formel qui ont abouti à la mise en place de structures émergentes dans la plateforme de simulation GEAMAS-NG. Celle-ci, ou les entités de la SOA elles-mêmes, peuvent ainsi prendre conscience de l'émergence de phénomènes et les matérialiser en ayant recours à la connaissance des thématiciens. Nous avons alors montré l'intérêt de ces propositions en expérimentant la réification de phénomènes émergents observés dans DS.

It is no unknown fact that South African learners underachieve in mathematics. Due to the fact that the quality of mathematics teaching is one possible factor that has an influence on learners' mathematics achievement, there are valid reasons questioning the conceptual mathematical knowledge of mathematics teachers. In order to facilitate conceptual understanding teachers themselves must possess profound mathematical knowledge. Apart from the influence of a teacher's knowledge for teaching, teachers' attitudes and beliefs play a meaningful role in the way they teach mathematics. The deficient nature of prospective and practising teachers' knowledge of school mathematics, as well as their attitudes and beliefs towards mathematics has serious implications for the training of prospective mathematics teachers. Literature reveals that a technologically enhanced environment can improve the conceptual learning of prospective mathematics teachers. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of a dynamic technologically enhanced environment on the attitudes and beliefs, as well as the conceptualisation of prospective mathematics teachers regarding the function concept. In this study, prospective teachers were exposed to Geometer's Sketchpad®, a dynamic software programme providing a powerful learning context that promotes the investigation of algebraic relationships. In order to answer the research question, an explanatory mixed method design was used. In the quantitative part of the study, the Study Orientation Questionnaire in Mathematics and a function test were administered to prospective teachers. In the latter, conceptualisation of the function concept was measured in terms of four competence components, namely interpretation, modelling, translation and reification. In the qualitative part of the investigation semi-structured and task-based interviews were held with a group of prospective teachers. Analysis of the results revealed that the dynamic technologically enhanced environment did not contribute to an improvement of the prospective teachers' attitudes and beliefs. In fact, these decreased visibly. Regarding their conceptualisation, only the reification component showed a practically significant improvement. It therefore appears as if prospective teachers are not being prepared to benefit from the dynamic technologically enhanced environment. A model is proposed for the effective use of such a learning environment. The model involves that diagnostic assessment be made of prospective teachers' basic knowledge of the function concept, their study habits, their attitudes and beliefs with respect to mathematics, as well as their mathematics anxiety. The second component comprises recommendations made to prospective teachers as a result of the diagnostic assessment, as well as continuous support being offered as an integrated part of the mathematics module. Support is offered with respect to cognitive and meta-cognitive skills, affective factors and the creation of an advantageous technologically enhanced learning environment. Despite the restricted value of generalisation of the findings from this study, I still recommend the expansion, refining and implementation of the model so that prospective mathematics teachers can effectively benefit from a technologically enhanced environment. Key words for indexing: mathematics education, mathematics teacher education, teacher knowledge, prospective mathematics teachers, function concept, conceptual learning, tertiary education. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Education))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.