Proved reserves estimation is a crucial process since it impacts aspects of the petroleum business. By definition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, the proved reserves must be estimated by reliable methods that must have a chance of at least a 90 percent probability (P90) that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimates. Decline curve analysis, DCA, is a commonly used method; which a trend is fitted to a production history and extrapolated to an economic limit for the reserves estimation. The trend is the “best estimate” line that represents the well performance, which corresponds to the 50th percentile value (P50). This practice, therefore, conflicts with the proved reserves definition. An exponential decline model is used as a base case because it forms a straight line in a rate-cum coordinate scale. Two straight line fitting methods, i.e. ordinary least square and error-in-variables are compared. The least square method works better in that the result is consistent with the Gauss-Markov theorem. In compliance with the definition, the proved reserves can be estimated by determining the 90th percentile value of the descending order data from the variance. A conventional estimation using a principal of confidence intervals is first introduced to quantify the spread, a difference between P50 and P90, from the variability of a cumulative production. Because of the spread overestimation of the conventional method, the analytical formula is derived for estimating the variance of the cumulative production. The formula is from an integration of production of rate over a period of time and an error model. The variance estimations agree with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) results. The variance is then used further to quantify the spread with the assumption that the ultimate cumulative production is normally distributed. Hyperbolic and harmonic models are also studied. The spread discrepancy between the analytics and the MCS is acceptable. However, the results depend on the accuracy of the decline model and error used. If the decline curve changes during the estimation period the estimated spread will be inaccurate. In sensitivity analysis, the trend of the spread is similar to how uncertainty changes as the parameter changes. For instance, the spread reduces if uncertainty reduces with the changing parameter, and vice versa. The field application of the analytical solution is consistent to the assumed model. The spread depends on how much uncertainty in the data is; the higher uncertainty we assume in the data, the higher spread. / text

Nous nous intéressons au développement prouvé de composants formels pour un générateur de code pré-qualifié. Ce dernier produit un code séquentiel (C et Ada) pour des modèles d'entrée qui combinent les flots de données et de contrôle et qui présentent des possibilités d'exécution concurrente (Simulink/Stateflow et Scicos). Le développement prouvé permet de réduire le coût des tests et d'augmenter l'assurance des outils développés avec cette approche vis-à-vis de la qualification. Les phases de spécification, de développement et de vérification des outils développés sont effectuées avec l'assistant de preuve Coq. Ce dernier permet d'extraire le contenu calculatoire des composants en préservant les propriétés prouvées en Coq. Ce code extrait est ensuite intégré dans une chaîne complète de développement (chaîne de GeneAuto). Nous présentons un cadre formel, inspiré de l'analyse statique, qui s'appuie sur la sémantique abstraite et qui est instanciable sur plusieurs composants du générateur de code. Nous nous basons sur les ensembles partiellement ordonnés et sur le calcul de point fixe pour définir le cadre et effectuer les différentes analyses des composants du générateur de code. Ce cadre formel comporte toutes les preuves communes aux composants et indépendantes des analyses effectuées. Deux composants sont étudiés : l'ordonnanceur et le typeur des modèles d'entrée. / We are interested in the proved development of formal components for a pre-qualified code generator. This produces a sequential code (C and Ada) for input models that combine data and control flows, with potential concurrent execution (Simulink/Stateflow and Scicos). The proved development reduces test cost and increases insurance of components developed with this approach regarding the qualification. Phases of specification, development and verification of the developed components are done with the Coq proof assistant. This allows to extract the computational content of the components preserving the properties proved in Coq. The extracted code is then integrated into the complete development tool-chain (GeneAuto tool-chain). We present a formal framework, inspired from static analysis, based on the abstract semantics which is instantiable to several components of the code generator. We rely on partially ordered sets and fixed-point to define de formal framework and to perform the various analysis of components of the code generator. This formal framework includes all proofs common to the components and independent from the performed analyses. Two components are studied : the scheduler and the type checker of input models.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / The water quality of reservoirs for water supply has been compromised due to eutrophication. Eutrophication favors the proliferation of cyanobacteria, and therefore cyanotoxins that can be produced and released at any stage of cell growth of cyanobacteria. When these are in excess toxins in reservoirs and fountains, represent a hazard to public health and may cause poisoning in humans and animals. Due to several published reports that indicate fatal poisoning caused by cyanotoxins in Brazil and the world, the Brazilian health authorities have given more attention to the issue of intoxication by cyanotoxins, culminating with the inclusion of concentration limits for microcystin and saxitoxin to the concierge potability of the Ministry of Health 2914/2011. The methods described in the literature for the determination of saxitoxins, no reports of validation of the method for analyzing Goniautoxina 2.3 (GTX 2.3) were found Decarbamoil Goniautoxina 2,3-(2,3 dc-GTX) and N -sulfocarbamoil-Goniautoxina 2.3 (1.2 C) in water samples from reservoirs for public water supply. Within this context, this work aims to validate analytical methodology to identify and quantify 2.3 GTX, GTX-dc 2.3 and 1.2 C, using high-efficiency liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FLD). Validation was performed in accordance with Resolution 889/2003 of ANVISA. The toxin C 1.2 has not remained stable and deteriorated rapidly, preventing its detection and completion of validation. For the 2.3 GTX and GTX-2.3 dc toxins, selectivity and linearity shown to be satisfactory. The values ​​obtained for the precision, accuracy, limits of detection and quantification of the instrument and the method presented is suitable values ​​allowed by Brazilian law, with the exception of accuracy in small concentrations. The method proved to be robust as the analysis of peak area and show sensitivity to temperature variation and the analysis of the retention time. From the final analysis of the results of each parameter, the method proved to be valid for the determination of 2.3 GTX and GTX-dc 2.3. / A qualidade da Ãgua dos reservatÃrios para abastecimento vem sendo comprometida devido ao processo de eutrofizaÃÃo. A eutrofizaÃÃo propicia a proliferaÃÃo das cianobactÃrias, e consequentemente, cianotoxinas que podem ser produzidas e liberadas em qualquer estÃgio de crescimento celular das cianobactÃrias. Quando estas toxinas estÃo em excesso em reservatÃrios e mananciais, apresentam perigo à saÃde pÃblica, podendo causar intoxicaÃÃes em seres humanos e em animais. Devido a vÃrios relatos da literatura que indicam intoxicaÃÃes fatais causadas por cianotoxinas no Brasil e no mundo, as autoridades sanitÃrias brasileiras deram mais atenÃÃo à questÃo de intoxicaÃÃes por cianotoxinas, culminando com a inclusÃo de limites de concentraÃÃo para a microcistina e para a saxitoxina na portaria de potabilidade do MinistÃrio da SaÃde 2914/2011. Entre os mÃtodos descritos na literatura para a determinaÃÃo de saxitoxinas, nÃo foram encontrados relatos de validaÃÃo do mÃtodo para anÃlise de Goniautoxina 2,3 (GTX 2,3), Decarbamoil-Goniautoxina 2,3 (dc-GTX 2,3) e N-sulfocarbamoil-Goniautoxina 2,3 (C 1,2) em amostras de Ãgua de reservatÃrios para abastecimento pÃblico. Dentro deste contexto, este trabalho tem como objetivo validar uma metodologia analÃtica para identificar e quantificar GTX 2,3, dc-GTX 2,3 e C 1,2, utilizando cromatografia lÃquida de alta eficiÃncia com detecÃÃo por fluorescÃncia (CLAE-FLD). A validaÃÃo foi executada de acordo com a ResoluÃÃo 889/2003 da ANVISA. A toxina C 1,2 nÃo se manteve estÃvel e degradou-se rapidamente, impedindo a sua detecÃÃo e conclusÃo da sua validaÃÃo. Para as toxinas GTX 2,3 e dc-GTX 2,3, a seletividade e a linearidade mostraram-se satisfatÃrias. Os valores obtidos para a precisÃo, exatidÃo, limites de detecÃÃo e quantificaÃÃo do instrumento e do mÃtodo apresentaram-se adequados aos valores permitidos pela legislaÃÃo brasileira, com exceÃÃo da exatidÃo em pequenas concentraÃÃes. O mÃtodo mostrou-se robusto quanto a anÃlise de Ãrea do pico e apresentou sensibilidade a variaÃÃo de temperatura quanto a anÃlise do tempo de retenÃÃo. A partir da anÃlise final dos resultados obtidos por cada parÃmetro, o mÃtodo mostrou-se valido para a determinaÃÃo de GTX 2,3 e dc-GTX 2,3.

Tout comme la dépression, le suicide revêt plusieurs figures. Et au-delà de tout cadre nosographique ou structurel, ce qui les détermine tous-deux réside dans la confrontation à l’épreuve de la perte, du deuil. La mort elle-même prend-t-elle figure dans le vécu de perte de l’objet aimé ? La clinique des sujets survivants au suicide révèle en effet cet étrange paradoxe : Se tuer physiquement pour survivre psychiquement à la souffrance engendrée dans l’actuel par le vécu de perte de l’objet aimé. Inquiétante étrangeté de la mort qui, non seulement se mêle ici intimement à la vie, mais semble aussi détenir en elle une figure autoconservatrice pour la psyché menacée par l’anéantissement : c’est bien lorsqu’il est confronté à la menace d’effondrement que le sujet décide de se tuer, le suicide apparaissant telle une défense contre l’angoisse. Pour appréhender ce paradoxe, il s’agit donc en premier lieu d’interroger le suicide dans son rapport aux problématiques dépressives, et de lier l’expérience primitive de la perte aux fondements de la réalité psychique du sujet. Emergent alors certaines équivalences entre l’expérience de séparation et l’anéantissement psychique, qui permettent elles-mêmes d’envisager l’existence d’une correspondance entre l’éprouvé archaïque de mort psychique et la mort de soi. Cette correspondance entre mort psychique et mort physique, opérant sous l’œuvre du clivage de la personnalité, pourrait bien être active dans la formation du suicide interrompu. / As for depression, suicide reveals different features. And beyond nosographical or structural framework, what determines them both lies in the confrontation of the ordeal of loss, mourning. Is death itself taking in the lived experience of the loss of the loved objet? The clinical study of suicide survivors shows indeed a strange paradox: physically killing oneself in order to survive psychically the suffering generated in the present by the experience of the loss of the loved object. Disturbing oddness of death, which not only mingles here intimately with life, but also seems to hold in itself a self-preserving feature for the psyche threatened by annihilation: it is indeed when confronted with the threat of collapse that the subject decides to kill himself, suicide appearing as a defense against anxiety. In order to understand this paradox, we need first and foremost to question suicide in its relation to depressive problems and to link the initial experience of loss with the foundations of the psychic reality of the subject. Then certain equivalences are emerging between the experience of separation and psychic annihilation, which allow us to envisage the existence of a connection between the archaic proved of psychic death and the death of oneself. This connection between psychic death and physical death, acting under the personality cleavage, may well be active in the development of interrupted suicide.

Submitted by JESSYCA LAGES (jessycalcastro@gmail.com) on 2017-06-23T16:20:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO FINAL_JESSYCA_AJUSTADA (1).pdf: 2878592 bytes, checksum: b6b8dca847a0c4aad30bdc4d5d70569c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2017-06-23T18:35:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO FINAL_JESSYCA_AJUSTADA (1).pdf: 2878592 bytes, checksum: b6b8dca847a0c4aad30bdc4d5d70569c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-14T12:57:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO FINAL_JESSYCA_AJUSTADA (1).pdf: 2878592 bytes, checksum: b6b8dca847a0c4aad30bdc4d5d70569c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-24 / The main objective of the present study was to analyze the effects that the new regulation of the FIES of December 2014 caused the strategies of management and growth of the Institutions of Private Higher Education, so that they maintained to maintain the level of growth predicted in the Plan of Institutional Development (IDP). In this sense, during the course of the study, a historical survey was developed showing the different stages of the evolution of the educational system of higher education in Brazil, which made evident the various changes that have been implemented during the several governments that have passed through the decades of social, Political and educational in the country. Consequently, the main characteristics of the education public policies cycle of higher education were described and analyzed, which sought to detail the main aspects and factors that contributed to promote the access of the population to higher education in Brazil. A historical survey of the Student Financing Fund (FIES) was also carried out, analyzing the constitutionality of the new rules that were established in the year 2014, comparing them with previous rules, in order to better understand the aspects that were modified Are possible consequences of these changes, both for HEIs and for the population that enters higher education. Finally, in the case study developed, the analysis of the effects of the changes resulting from the new rules established in the year 2014 was implemented, emphasizing these impacts in the private HEIs of the state of Ceará. From this perspective, it was sought to analyze the management solutions implemented by HEIs after the new regulations of December 2014, specifically observing the following factors: the number of participants in private HEIs, the management strategies and the level of growth of the institutions. IES provided by the PDI - Institutional Development Plan). It was concluded that the two heis studied present more similarities regarding management strategies than differences. In this way the FIES is so influential and essential in the education sector that even HEIs with little exposure are significantly dependent on the program. / O objetivo principal da presente pesquisa consistiu em analisar os efeitos que a nova regulamentação do FIES de dezembro de 2014 causou as estratégias de gestão e crescimento das Instituições de Ensino Superior Privadas, para que as mesmas mantivessem para manter o nível de crescimento previsto no Plano de Desenvolvimento Institucional (PDI). Neste sentido, no decorrer do estudo foi desenvolvido um levantamento histórico demonstrando as diversas etapas da evolução do sistema educacional do ensino superior no Brasil, que deixou evidente as diversas mudanças que foram implantadas no decorrer dos diversos governos que passaram através das décadas de desenvolvimento social, político e educacional no país. Consequentemente, foram descritas e analisadas as principais características do ciclo das políticas públicas educacionais de ensino superior, por meio do qual procurou-se detalhar os principais aspectos e fatores que contribuíram para promover o acesso da população ao ensino superior no Brasil. Também foi feito o levantamento histórico do Fundo de Financiamento Estudantil (FIES), analisando-se a constitucionalidade das novas regras que foram estabelecidas no ano de 2014, comparando-as com as normas anteriores, com o intuito de melhor compreender os aspectos que foram modificados es possíveis consequências destas mudanças, tanto para as IES quanto para a população que ingressa no ensino superior. Por fim, no estudo de caso desenvolvido, foi implementada à análise dos efeitos das mudanças decorrentes das novas regras estabelecidas no ano de 2014, enfatizando estes impactos nas IES privadas do estado do Ceará. A partir desta perspectiva buscou-se analisar as soluções de gestão implementadas pelas IES após as novas portarias de dezembro de 2014, observado, especificamente, os seguintes fatores: o número de ingressantes nas IES privadas, as estratégias de gestão e o nível de crescimento das IES previsto pelo PDI- Plano de Desenvolvimento Institucional). Concluiu-se que as duas IES estudadas apresentaram mais semelhanças quanto às estratégias de gestão do que diferenças. Desta forma o FIES é tão influente e essencial no setor da educação que mesmo as IES com pouca exposição dependem significativamente do programa.

There has existed for many years a memory enhancement technique ("memory pegs") that although having dramatic demonstrable success in some individual cases has not been generally applied in education. The emergence of constructivist epistemology has emphasised the notion that learning occurs as a result of connecting new material with previously learnt concepts. There is, therefore, the implication that effective learning requires some previous knowledge upon which to attach new concepts - and thus realisation of the importance of learning with respect to acquiring factual information as a prerequisite to learning new processes and/or skills. This issue has focussed my attention on the need to ensure that the more physiological skills of accessing 'memory', both for learning and recall, are optimised for maximum learning. Further, there are some indications that the physiological skills of memory access (storage and retrieval) may respond favourably to training and 'exercise'. This study was designed to find out whether or not a repeated 'exercise' using a simple memory enhancement technique would lead to a determinable and statistically significant increase in overall performance in a range of cognitive skills (as indicated by science and mathematics examination results), whether learning such a technique would affect a student's attitudes towards science, whether there was a relationship between the amount of time spent practicing the technique and the degree of effect, and whether the memory technique did actually improve the ability to recall lists of objects.