This thesis examined the predictive power of different strategies for future stock returns. The analysis was conducted using a data sample of 3976 firms traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ during a 29 year time horizon, from July 1986 to June 2015. Predictive powers of different strategies were also tested during three sub-periods and during bull and bear markets using both long-only and long/short portfolios to check whether the predictive power is robust. It was found that the FCF yield is a better indicator of future stock returns than the gross profitability. The difference between average monthly returns was significant during all tested time periods and market situations using both long-only and long/short portfolios. The newly introduced FCF profitable value strategy proved to be a better predictor of future stock returns than the profitable value strategy. The FCF profitable value strategy presents also an improvement over the FCF yield strategy. It was found that the FCF profitable value has a better predictive power for future stock returns than the FCF yield at least during some time periods or market situations. JEL Classification G11, G14, G15, G17 Keywords value investing, quality investing, gross profitability, free cash flow yield Author's e-mail...

This thesis examines the performance of portfolios sorted by gross-profit-to-asset (GPA) as a quality investing on the Swedish stock exchange. It constructs long-only portfolios and long-short portfolios sorted by GPA, book-to-market (B/P) and earnings-per-price (E/P). Thus, the thesis includes quality and value investing. The thesis compares separately the constructed long-only and long-short portfolios among each other. The long-only strategies are additionally compared to the market index. The study further examines a combined portfolio, sorting for GPA and B/P in order to test Novy-Marx’s findings. He reports, that the average return improves, while the standard deviation remains at the same level for a combined portfolio sorting for GPA and B/P. This requires a negative correlation. The comparison is based on different portfolio measurements as i.e. s.d. The asset pricing models CAPM and 5-Factor Model are applied. In addition, actual returns, excessive return over the risk-free rate and over the market index as a benchmark are assessed for the portfolio. The analysis is conducted for the time period 1994-2013 and separately for downturns, considering 2000-2003, 2007-2009 and 2010. The results show a great applicability of the gross-profitability ratio on the Swedish market. This quality strategy convinces not only during normal times with the portfolios GPA-h (long-only) and GPA-hl (long-short) but also in stressed times. GPA-h reports positive (abnormal) returns GPA-h during downturns. The long-only and long-short portfolios based on GPA outperform the market in both time periods. GPA-sorted portfolios perform in general better and the two value strategies during normal times and downturns, based on the annual average return. Examining the two value strategies EP-sorted portfolios are superior over BP-sorted portfolios. EP-portfolios achieve better performance during downturns, regarding Jensen’s alpha. It can be derived, that EP is countercyclical. The combined portfolio generates high return and has a high standard deviation. The assessed statement of Novy-Marx cannot be confirmed for the Swedish stock market. It has to be stated that we detected positive correlation instead of negative correlation. It can be derived, that GPA ratio is applicable on the Swedish market, considering the assumptions and limitations of this study. EP-based portfolios show a good performance during downturns. BP- based portfolios do not perform well on the sweidish market in the assessed time frame. The combined portfolio GPABP-hh does increase returns with constant standard deviation, referred to BP-h. Our findings show, that both value strategies do not outperform the market index. The EP-based value portfolios outperform BP-based portfolios. EP-h performs better during downturns considering Jensen’s alpha.