Master thesis in Business Administration, Swedish Business School at Örebro University, spring semester 2012 Authors: Anders Oskarsson & Christian Uhlander Title: I’m going to make you rich! -With a little help from Piotroski Research objective: This paper examines whether a simple account-based analysis strategy, F_SCORE, can improve returns earned by an investor. The results show that F_SCORE generated a 69,7 % annual return between 2001-2010 at the Swedish market, which was better than the further developed model A_SCORE. Overall, the evidence suggests that the market does not incorporate historical information into prices in a timely manner. Methodology: The foundation for this thesis is based on a quantitative approach and empirical material is gathered from Thomson Reuters Datastream for the Swedish market.

Investors are always searching the market for stocks that are undervalued and that can potentially create value. One way of finding undervalued stocks is to carefully analyze firms’ accounting ratios. Researchers have in the past found evidence that an investment in value stocks, often categorized as low P/E and low P/B ratio stocks, in most cases generates more value than an investment in growth stocks (categorized as high P/E and P/B). However, we found a lack of studies that investigates if this relationship exists on the Swedish market and if it holds true during the financial crisis. This resulted in the following research question:Would a portfolio consisting of value stocks outperform a portfolio consisting of growth stocks on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm?In order to answer the research question a quantitative method with a deductive approach has been applied and historical stock prices and accounting ratios over the time period 2005-2013 have been collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream. Returns were then calculated and portfolios of value and growth stocks were created based on the accounting ratios for every year. The returns where risk-adjusted with the help of the Sharpe-ratio before the Mann-Whitney U test was used in order to see if there is a significant difference between value and growth portfolios.For the price to earnings ratio the risk-adjusted returns of the value portfolio only outperformed the risk-adjusted returns of the growth portfolio two years out of the nine years tested. For the price to book measure the risk-adjusted returns of the growth portfolio outperformed the risk-adjusted value portfolio seven out of nine times.The results of the study seems to indicate that growth stocks outperform value stocks, contrary to much of the previous research that has concluded that value stocks outperform growth stocks. However, our findings were not statistically significant and we could not draw any clear conclusions from our results. The study did contribute with new knowledge however, by increasing the data available for value investing in Sweden and highlighting a need for more studies into smaller stock markets and for a period of financial distress, such as the financial crisis.

Master Thesis intends to introduce Value Investing as an alternative invetment philospohy. Topic of the text also includes a discussion about inefficiencies in the current investment industry. Lastly, Dow Jones 30 analysis is performed.

Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Waarde- en groei-beleggingstrategieë dateer terug na Fama en French (1992) en Lakonishok, Shleifer en Vishny (1994). Bogenoemde studies is gebaseer op vroeë navorsing wat die fokus verskuif het om sodoende waardasieverhoudinge en maatskappygrootte te gebruik as toonaangewende verklarende maatstawwe vir aandele-opbrengste. Toenemende studies in hierdie beleggingsveld het die akademiese en beleggingsgemeenskap oortuig dat ’n waardegebaseerde beleggingstrategie, gemiddeld, ’n groeigebaseerde beleggingstrategie oortref. Waarde- en groei-eienskappe word algemeen aanvaar en deur fondsbestuurders en beleggers as onderskeidende beleggingstrategieë aangewend. Hierdie eiesoortige beleggingstrategieë is op die Suid-Afrikaanse mark vir die periode 1990 tot 2009 toegepas. Die beduidende veranderinge binne die ekonomiese klimaat en aandelemarkte was die oorhoofse rede vir die insluiting van die ekonomiese siklusse in die navorsing, spesifiek die opswaai- en afswaai-fases van die ekonomie. Die Sharpe-, Treynor- en Inligting–prestasiemaatstawwe vir waarde- en groei-portefeuljes is in hierdie studie vergelyk en geanaliseer. Normaalweg word prestasie-beoordeling nie begin met ’n gedetailleerde analise van die opbrengsverdelings om te bepaal watter prestasie-maatstaf meer voortreflik is nie. Die opbrengsdensiteit vir alle portefeuljes is bepaal om sodoende die opbrengsverspreidings en risikooorwegings beter te verstaan binne die onderskeie ekonomiese siklusse. Die bevindinge binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks was wel ooreenstemmend met voorafgaande navorsing dat waardegebaseerde investering groeigebaseerde investering oortref vir aandele met hoër waardasieverhoudinge teenoor aandele met laer waardasieverhoudinge. Die gemiddelde maandelikse prestasie van waarde-portefeuljes het ook groei-portefeuljes oortref in die ekonomiese opswaai-siklusse, wat ooreenstemmend is met soortgelyke navorsing wat in ander markte gedoen is. In die ekonomiese afswaai-siklus het groei-portefeuljes waarde-portefeuljes oortref, ooreenstemmend met die van die Amerikaanse mark. Die navorsing dui daarop dat waardegebaseerde investering voortreflik is oor die volle steekproefperiode, wat beteken dat beleggers wat waarde-beleggingstrategieë volg hoër opbrengste kan verwag in alle ekonomiese siklusse, maar die voordele sal groter wees in tye van ’n ekonomiese opswaai. Die wisselvalligheid van opbrengste binne die twee ekonomiese siklusse is sigbaar en beklemtoon die noodsaaklikheid om die ekonomiese siklus in beleggingstrategieë en -besluite in te sluit. Die ekonomiese siklus verbreed die dimensie tot die evaluasie van waardegebaseerde beleggingstrategie en dit is noodsaaklik dat dit ’n geïntegreerde deel vorm van die evaluasieproses. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Value and growth investment strategies can be traced back to Fama and French (1992) and Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994). The studies built on earlier work done and lead to attention being shifted to valuation ratios and company size as leading explanatory indicators for stock returns. Based on the accumulated evidence from studies, the academic and investment community came to agree that value investment strategies, on average, outperform growth investment strategies. Value and growth, are widely recognised and used by money managers and investors as distinctive investment strategies. These style-specific investment strategies were tested on the South African market for the period 1990 to 2009. The significant changes within the economic conditions and securities markets motivated the research to include the business cycle – specifically, contraction and expansion of the economy – within the scope of this study. The Sharpe, Treynor and Information performance ratios, that were calculated for compiled value and growth portfolios, were compared and analysed. The performance evaluation is not normally initiated with a detailed analysis of the return distribution in order to determine which performance measure is superior. The return densities for all portfolios were calculated in order to gain a better understanding of return distributions and risk considerations within the different business cycles. The results indicated that, within the South African context, value investing did outperform growth investing as indicated by previous research that stocks with high valuation ratios tend to outperform stocks with low valuation ratios. The mean monthly performance of value portfolios also outperformed growth portfolios in the period of economic upswing, which is a similar result as that of other markets where this kind of research has been conducted. In the economic downturn period growth investing seems to be superior to value investing similar to that of the US market. The study indicates that the superior performance of value investing is robust for the whole sample period, meaning that investors will be better off investing in stocks with high valuation ratios for all economic conditions, but the benefits of value investing would be greater during periods of economic upswing. The volatility of returns within the two economic conditions is quite evident and highlights the importance of incorporating business cycles into investment strategies and decisions. The business cycle adds another dimension to value investing strategy evaluation and should be incorporated in the evaluation process.

This thesis aims to apply methods of value investing into developing field of algorithmic trading. Firstly, we investigate the effect of several fundamental variables on stock returns using the fixed effects model and portfolio approach. The results confirm that size and book- to-market ratio explain some variation in stock returns that market alone do not capture. Moreover, we observe a significant positive effect of book-to-market ratio and negative effect of size on future stock returns. Secondly, we try to utilize those variables in a trading algorithm. Using the common performance evaluation tools we test several fundamentally based strategies and discover that investing into small stocks with high book-to-market ratio beats the market in the tested period between 2009 and 2015. Although we have to be careful with conclusions as our dataset has some limitations, we believe that there is a market anomaly in the testing period which may be caused by preference of technical strategies over value investing by market participants.

Bakgrund: Den effektiva marknadshypotesen är ett vida accepterat begrepp inom den finansiella sfären men trots sin centrala roll har den fått motstå mycket kritik. Ett flertal anomalier har identifierats vilka är en kritik till marknadens effektivitet. I takt med anomaliernas framväxt har intresset för investeringsstrategier ökat. Går det att generera en överavkastning genom en förbestämd strategi där marknadens ineffektivitet utnyttjas? Vi finner det därför av intresse att studera Greenblatts (2010) Magic Formula och om det är möjligt att generera en överavkastning genom att tillämpa investeringsstrategin. Syfte: Studien syfte är att analysera huruvida investeringsstrategin Magic Formula kan generera överavkastning jämfört med den globala aktiemarknaden samt om det föreligger några prestationsskillnader mellan de olika europeiska aktiemarknaderna. Vidare ämnar studien analysera hur ombalanseringsfrekvensen samt val av tidsperiod påverkar Magic Formula-portföljens avkastning. Metod: För att genomföra studien har en kvantitativ strategi med en deduktiv ansats använts. Det har genomförts en tidsserieundersökning där portföljer har konstruerats och analyserats baserat på dess avkastning och risk som statistiskt säkerställts genom parvisa t-test samt regressioner. Studien har genomförts på den europeiska marknaden under tidsperioden 2007-04-01 till 2017-04-01. Slutsats: Av 18 Magic Formula-portföljer presterar 14 portföljer sämre än jämförelseindex, sett till årliga medelavkastning samt total avkastning. Tre av de 14 portföljerna gav en signifikant lägre avkastning. Finanskrisen hade stor påverkan på resultaten. Exkluderas denna tidsperiod presterade endast 11 portföljer sämre, dock utan statistisk signifikans i resultaten. Studie har även funnit att en längre tidsperiod mellan ombalanseringarna tenderar att generera en högre avkastning. / Background: The efficient market hypothesis is a widely spread concept throughout the financial sphere, but despite of its central roll it have had to withstand a lot of criticism. Anomalies have been identified which are a criticism against the markets efficiency. The interest of investment strategies has grown as of the emergence of the anomalies. Is it possible to generate abnormal returns through a pre-determined strategy, where the market inefficiency is exploited? We therefore find it interesting to study Greenblatt’s (2010) Magic Formula and if it is possible to generate abnormal returns by implementing the investment strategy. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze whether the investment strategy Magic Formula can generate abnormal returns compared with the global stock market, and if it is possible to identify any performance differences between the European stock markets. Furthermore, the study aims to analyze how the re-balancing frequency and the time period effects returns from the Magic Formula. Methodology: To implement the study we have used a quantitative strategy with a deductive design. We have implemented a time series analysis where portfolios have been constructed and analyzed based on its return and risk. The results have been statistically tested through pairwise t-tests and regressions. The study is conducted on the European market from 2007-04-01 to 2017-04-01. Conclusion: 14 of the 18 Magic Formula portfolios have performed worse than the benchmark, according to annual average return and total return. Three of the 14 portfolios have had a significant lower return. The financial crisis affected the results greatly. If we excluded this time period only 11 portfolios performed worse, however without statistical support behind the results. Our results also suggest that a less frequent re-balancing of the portfolio generates higher return than a more frequent re-balancing.

As the existence of value premium has been showed in previous studies, this paper focuses on studying strategies for capitalizing this value premium in Swedish stock market. This paper studies the possible gains and risks of value investing strategies constructed with dividend yield, price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios in Swedish stock market during 2006-2016.The findings show that the studied value portfolios offered abnormal returns during the studied time-period. Moreover, value stocks performed better than growth stocks when dividend yield and P/B-ratio were used as criteria. However, the paper could not confirm the same effect in P/E-ratio as high P/E tended to work better than low P/E. Out of the studied ratios, the best risk-adjusted returns were received from companies with the lowest P/B-ratios.The findings in this paper also indicate that including more ratio-based criteria in to an investment strategy does not offer more risk-adjusted returns.

Bakgrund: Omfattande forskning har visat på att investeringsstrategier kan användas för att kontinuerligt uppnå överavkastning gentemot index. Multiplarna EV/EBIT och EV/EBITDA är vanliga inslag i investeringsstrategier eftersom de båda ses som en nära approximation av ett företags operativa kassaflöde, samtidigt som de tar hänsyn till företagets kapitalstruktur. Även om det bara är avskrivningarna som skiljer multiplarna åt anse r vi att andelen investeringar i ett företag utgör en fundamental grund för dess långsiktiga värdeskapande. Av denna anledning finns det ett intresse i att undersöka hur kapitalintensiteten påverkar en investeringsstrategis förmåga att generera överavkastning som grundar sig på multiplarna EV/EBIT och EV/EBITDA. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra multiplarna EV/EBIT och EV/EBITDAs förmåga att generera överavkastning på Stockholmsbörsen. Metod: För studien har en kvantitativ metod använts med en deduktiv ansats för att samla in och bearbeta data om bolag listade på Stockholmsbörsen under perioden 2005 - 2016. Dessa bolag har utgjort grunden för tolv olika portföljer som skilt sig åt med avseende på multipel och innehavsperiod. För att statistiskt säkerställa studiens resultat har parvisa t-tester använts. Resultat: Av tolv portföljer har nio uppnått riskjusterad överavkastning gentemot jämförelseindex OMXSPI. Resultatet har kunnat säkerställas statistiskt för sju portföljer inom dubbelsidiga konfidensintervall på mellan 90 - 99 procent. En investering i låga multipelvärden för EV/EBIT tillsammans med en innehavsperiod på sex månader genererar den högsta ackumulerade avkastningen, både innan och efter justering för risk. I kontrast genererar en investering i höga multipelvärden för EV/EBIT den lägsta ackumulerade avkastningen under den studerade tidsperioden. / Background: Extensive research has shown that investment strategies can be used to achieve continuous abnormal returns in comparison to an index. Many investment strategies are based on the multiples EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA. These multiples suffice as an approximation of the company’s operational cash flow while taking into account the capital structure. Even though it is only the depreciation and amortization that sets the two multiples apart, we argue that the need for investments constitute a fundamental part of creating long term stakeholder value. For this reason we find it interesting to study how the capital intensity affects an investment strategy’s ability to generate returns based on the multiples EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA. Aim: The aim with this study is to compare the multiples EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA’s ability to generate returns on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Methodology: The study has used a quantitative method with a deductive approach in order to collect and process data for companies listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during the time period 2005 – 2016. These companies have constituted the base for a ranking process, ultimately leading to the creation of twelve portfolios that differ with regard to the type of multiple and holding period. In order to statistically verify the results of the study we have used pairwise t-tests. Results: Out of twelve portfolios nine have achieved risk adjusted abnormal returns in comparison with the index OMXSPI. The results could be verified statistically for seven portfolios within a double-sided confidence interval of between 90-99 percent. An investment in low multiple values for EV/EBIT with a holding period of six months generates the highest accumulated return, both before and after adjustment for risk. In contrast, an investment in high multiple values for EV/EBIT generates the lowest accumulated return during the studied time period.

In recent decades, many investors have abandoned hopes of achieving above market returns through active management, and consigned themselves to passive investing in the form of market capitalization based portfolios. Using Swedish stock exchange data from 2002-2016, this thesis investigates if there is a way to harmonize the strengths of active management, yielding potential above market returns, and passive index investing, implying lower fees and transparency. Based on observations from 275 companies, analysed through market model regressions, the results suggest that fundamentally invested value and quality portfolios create an alpha of 1-2 percent quarterly relative the market capitalization benchmark portfolio. Moreover, the results constitute basis for performing real investments, as they take into consideration the transaction costs implied by portfolio turnover. Furthermore, the findings of greater risk-adjusted returns through fundamentally weighted portfolios stand in opposition to the efficient market hypothesis.

This diploma thesis covers value investing process defined by adherents of Graham and Dodd. Theoretical aspects of this principle are explained with special focus devoted to determination of intrinsic value using three step process utilizing information from value of assets, earnings power value and value of growth. We pay attention to strategic considerations that should facilitate an analyst to more reliable conclusions. Using European markets data, analytical part of this work examines return of mechanically compiled value and growth portfolios and presence of value premium. We than analyze return of existing value portfolios.