Submitted by Marlene Santos (marlene.bc.ufg@gmail.com) on 2016-06-15T18:33:41Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Diogo Soares Menezes Samia - 2015.pdf: 4976311 bytes, checksum: 317908c75deb4de1770cd68c544a5190 (MD5) license_rdf: 19874 bytes, checksum: 38cb62ef53e6f513db2fb7e337df6485 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-06-28T11:59:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Diogo Soares Menezes Samia - 2015.pdf: 4976311 bytes, checksum: 317908c75deb4de1770cd68c544a5190 (MD5) license_rdf: 19874 bytes, checksum: 38cb62ef53e6f513db2fb7e337df6485 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-28T11:59:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Diogo Soares Menezes Samia - 2015.pdf: 4976311 bytes, checksum: 317908c75deb4de1770cd68c544a5190 (MD5) license_rdf: 19874 bytes, checksum: 38cb62ef53e6f513db2fb7e337df6485 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Optimal escape theory states that animals should counterbalance the costs and benefits of flight when escaping from a potential predator. However, in apparent contradiction with this well-established optimality model, birds and mammals generally initiate escape soon after beginning to monitor an approaching threat; a phenomena codified as the “Flush Early and Avoid the Rush” (FEAR) hypothesis. Typically, the FEAR hypothesis is tested using correlational statistics and is supported when there is a strong relationship between the distance at which an individual first responds behaviorally to an approaching predator (alert distance; AD), and its flight initiation distance (the distance at which it flees the approaching predator; FID). However, such correlational statistics are both inadequate to analyze relationships constrained by an envelope (such as that in the AD-FID relationship) and are sensitive to outliers with high leverage, which can lead one to erroneous conclusions. To overcome these statistical concerns we develop the phi index (Φ), a distribution-free metric to evaluate the goodness of fit of a 1:1 relationship in a constraint envelope (the prediction of the FEAR hypothesis). Using both simulation and empirical data, we conclude that Φ is superior to traditional correlational analyses because it explicitly tests the FEAR prediction, is robust to outliers, and it controls for the disproportionate influence of observations from large predictor values (caused by the constrained envelope in AD-FID relationship). Importantly, by analyzing the empirical data we corroborate the strong effect that alertness has on flight as stated by the FEAR hypothesis. / A teoria do escape ótimo afirma que os animais devem contrabalançar os custos e benefícios da fuga quando vão escapar de um predador. No entanto, em aparente contradição com este bem-estabelecido modelo ótimo, aves e mamíferos geralmente empreendem fuga logo após inicio do monitoramento do predador em potencial; um fenômeno denominado “Flush Early and Avoid the Rush hypothesis” (a hipótese FEAR). A hipótese FEAR é geralmente testada usando estatísticas correlativas e seu suporte se dá por uma forte relação positiva entre a distância na qual um indivíduo responde comportamentalmente a um predador que se aproxima (distância de alerta; alert distance, AD) e a distância do início da fuga (flight initiation distance, FID). No entanto, o uso de estatísticas correlativas para testar a hipótese FEAR pode levar a conclusões errôneas, já que estatísticas correlativas são inadequadas para análise de relações em envelope (tais como a relação entre AD e FID) e são sensíveis a valores discrepantes (outliers) com elevado efeito de alavancagem. Por isso, nós desenvolvemos o índice fi (Φ), uma métrica não-paramétrica destinada a avaliar a qualidade do ajuste de uma relação 1:1 restrita por um envelope (tal como a observada na hipótese FEAR). Usando simulações numéricas e dados empíricos, nós concluímos que Φ é uma métrica superior às análises de correlação tradicionais porque testa explicitamente a predição da hipótese FEAR, é robusta a outiliers, e ainda controla pela influência disproporcional dos altos de AD (causado pela relação em envelope entre AD e FID). Como predito pela hipótese FEAR, a análise dos dados empíricos corroborou o forte efeito que a distância de alerta tem sobre a decisão de fuga das presas.

It is a well-known fact that criminals derive an income from their illegal activities, live lavish lifestyles, flaunt their wealth for all to see and acquire luxury goods. It is also a well known fact that criminals living from the proceeds of crime do not want to not want to keep financial records of their transactions or illegitimate business for fear of being detected by the authorities and to escape being taxed. It is also a known fact that criminals do not declare income from criminal activities for income tax purposes to the revenue authorities for fear of the illegal origin of the income being made known to the investigating authorities and law enforcement. During the investigation of financial crimes, such as tax evasion and money laundering, it may be required that the amount or value of money, income or assets accrued by a subject is determined in order to determine for instance their liability to pay tax. This research project examines the Net Worth method as an indirect method to circumstantially quantify income during the investigation of financial crime. / Police Practice / M.Tech. (Forensic Investigation)

It is a well-known fact that criminals derive an income from their illegal activities, live lavish lifestyles, flaunt their wealth for all to see and acquire luxury goods. It is also a well known fact that criminals living from the proceeds of crime do not want to not want to keep financial records of their transactions or illegitimate business for fear of being detected by the authorities and to escape being taxed. It is also a known fact that criminals do not declare income from criminal activities for income tax purposes to the revenue authorities for fear of the illegal origin of the income being made known to the investigating authorities and law enforcement. During the investigation of financial crimes, such as tax evasion and money laundering, it may be required that the amount or value of money, income or assets accrued by a subject is determined in order to determine for instance their liability to pay tax. This research project examines the Net Worth method as an indirect method to circumstantially quantify income during the investigation of financial crime. / Police Practice / M.Tech. (Forensic Investigation)

The global context of decision making continues to adapt in response to international threats. Political psychologists have therefore considered decision making processes regarding major uses of force a key area of interest. Although presidential personality has been widely studied as a mitigating factor in the decision making patterns leading to uses of force, traditional theories have not accounted for the emotions of individuals as they affect political actions and are used to frame public perception of the use of force. This thesis therefore measures expressed emotion and cognitive expressions in the form of expressed aggression, passivity, blame, praise, certainty, realism, and optimism as a means of predicting subsequent major uses of force. Since aggression and blame are precipitated by anger and perceived vulnerability, they are theorized to foreshadow increased uses of force (Gardner and Moore 2008). Conversely, passivity and praise are indicative of empathy and joy respectively, and are not expected to precede aggressive behavior conducted to maintain emotional regulation (Roberton, Daffer, and Bucks 2012). Additionally, the three cognitive variables of interest expand on existing literature on beliefs and decision making expounded by such authors as Walker (2010), Winter (2003) and Hermann (2003). DICTION 6.0 is used to analyze all text data of presidential news conferences, candidate debates, and State of the Union speeches given between 1945 and 2000 stored by The American Presidency Project (Hart and Carroll 2012). Howell and Pevehouse's (2005) quantitative assessment of quarterly U.S. uses of force between 1945 and 2000 is employed as a means of quantifying instances of major uses of force. Results show systematic differences among the traits expressed by presidents, with most expressions staying consistent across spontaneous speech contexts. Additionally, State of the Union speeches consistently yielded the highest scores across the expressed traits measured; supporting the theory that prepared speech is used to emotionally frame situations and setup emotional interpretations of events to present to the public. Time sensitive regression analyses indicate that expressed aggression within the context of State of the Union Addresses is the only significant predictor of major uses of force by the administration. That being said, other studies may use the comparative findings presented herein to further establish a robust model of personality that accounts for individual dispositions toward emotional expression as a means of framing the emotional interpretation of events by audiences.