Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for banking sectors are used to measure occurrence risks of banking crises, generally observed with a rundown of bank deposits and widespread failures of financial institutions. In countries with a small number of banks, for example Turkey with 48 banks (BDDK, 2011), every bank may be considered to have a systematic importance since the failure of any individual bank may carry a potential threat to lead to a banking crisis. Taking into account this fact the present study focuses on EWSs in Turkey. Since there is no single correct EWS to apply to all cases, in this study, 300 models were constructed and tested to find models as accurate as possible by using a trial-and-error process and by searching optimal feature subset or classifier methods. Empirical results indicate that prediction accuracy did not increase significantly while we got closer to the actual occurrence of bankruptcy. An important finding of the study was that trends of financial ratios were very useful in the prediction of bank failures. Instead of failures as a result of instant shocks, the banks&#039 / failures followed through a path: first a downward movement affected the efficiency of the banks&#039 / officers and the quality of management structure measured with &quot / Activity Ratios&quot / , then the profitability of the banks measured with &quot / Profit Ratios&quot / declined. At last, the performance and the stability of banks&#039 / earnings stream measured with &quot / Income-Expenditure Structure Ratios&quot / and the level and quality of the banks&#039 / capital base, the end line of defense, measured with &quot / Capital Ratios&quot / . At the end of study, we proposed an ensemble model which produced probability ratios for the success rates of the banks. The proposed model achieved a very high success rate for the banks we considered.

雇主基於一定之經濟上目的，常與勞工在不定期勞動契約中，約定勞工於一定之期間內，必須繼續為雇主提供勞務，不得提前離職。此種最低服務年限約定條款，常見於各行各業之中，且類型繁多，也增加了問題研究的複雜性；因此，本文首重整理歸納實務上已經出現之案例類型，藉以釐清最低服務年限約定條款之定義與性質，作為研究之基礎。 有關最低服務年限約定條款的效力，涉及勞工職業自由與雇主經濟自由之衝突，本文認為應以利益權衡的方式，來判斷最低服務年限約定條款的效力。實務上，基於契約自由原則，率多承認此等條款的法律上效力，並慣於以違約金酌減之方式，來控制最低服務年限約定條款的合理性。不過，本文並不贊同實務通說之見解，另行提出「必要性」與「合理性」的二階段理論，作為最低服務年限約定條款效力的判斷依據。 實務上，最低服務年限約定條款常伴隨一些問題，譬如定型化勞動契約、終止權之限制、違約金約定條款、補償措施返還條款、訓練費用償還條款、選派進修關係等，本文也將在適當之處就此些問題加以論述。 文末，將對於最低服務年限約定條款在我國實務上的現況，作一回顧式的整理，並就相關的議題提出具有展望性的立法建議。