The Arab Spring resulted in what came to be known as the "2015 refugee crisis", primarily in the EU. It was a paradigm shift for the EU's security strategy and for intergovernmental relations for the EU, Russia and Turkey. The study highlights the aspect of refugee flows by using the theory Coercive Engineered Migration, to understand strategic changes during the period 2012-2016. The study is a theory-consuming case study focusing on the case "refugee crisis 2015".The study combines the refugee aspect from political science with concepts from the strategy domain, deriving from war studies. This shows a course of events where the actor´s utilization of refugee flows has played a central role in an escalation duel.The conceptual development approach of the study shows the benefit of combining the theory of Coercive Engineered Migration, and how escalation increases the understanding of the case and broadens the strategic perspective. The study also claims to broaden the concept of escalation by including refugee flows.

The aim of this study is to analyse the security implications of refugee flows to South Africa. The country is reputed to host the largest number of refugees and asylum seekers in the world and is also the foremost refugee destination of choice on the African continent. It therefore becomes pertinent that a consideration of the security implications is necessary in this age of global migration. The dissertation is based on three main assumptions to be investigated and tested, namely: > The main causes of refugee flows to South Africa reside in a number of push-factors in the sending countries, but also in a number of pull-factors in South Africa. > The security implications of refugee flows to South Africa are exacerbated by a number of political, socio-economic and administrative issues in South Africa. > Although concern over some of the security issues relating to refugee flows to South Africa have been officially expressed, policy responses have been ambiguous. The study is undertaken against the background of the concept of national security, specifically in developing countries. It is within these parameters that the security implications of refugees in South Arica are analysed, especially from the perspective of political, economic, social and environmental dimensions. The study mainly focuses on the period 1994 to 2010, as it is within this period that major developments regarding refugee issues in South Africa occurred. / Dissertation (MSecurity Studies)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2014 / Political Sciences / Unrestricted

While previous research shows that civil wars can spread to neighboring states, we do not know why certain neighbors are more at risk than others. To address this research gap, this dissertation proposes a contagion process approach that can identify the most likely targets of contagion effects from an ongoing conflict. Using data with global coverage, theoretical expectations about why and where civil wars would have contagion effects, are examined in a series of statistical analyses. Paper I argues and empirically supports that a country is more susceptible to contagion effects when it is characterized by ethnic polarization, where few ethnic groups form a delicate balance. Paper II argues and provides evidence that the involvement in conflict by an ethnic group in one country increases the likelihood of ethnic conflict erupting in a neighboring country that shares the same ethnic group. Paper III suggests and finds support that the arrival and long-term hosting of refugees from states in civil conflict make host states more likely to experience civil conflict. Paper IV examines the common notion that the granting of autonomy or independence to separatist groups may spur other ethnic groups to violently pursue similar demands, starting off a domino effect. Using new global data on such territorial concessions, the analysis does not support this version of the “domino theory,” which is popular among policy-makers. In sum, this dissertation contributes by demonstrating the usefulness of the contagion process approach. It offers a more comprehensive view of contagion among neighbors, and as such is able to specify arguments and intuitions in previous research.

The refugee crisis is an ongoing challenge for the European Union. Refugees from the Middle East, the majority of them Syrians, are risking their own and their children’s lives, putting their money –both figuratively and literally speaking- on the chance of surviving the almost six-year long war in Syria.The brutal death of thousands of refugees in the Aegean Sea’s waters was the reason why the EU mechanisms have started to mobilize seeking a solution. The ‘problem’ was not possible to be hidden under the carpet anymore. It was reaching the highly developed Europe’s doorstep.The media coverage of the crisis has started to emerge in a greater extent throughout 2015, as a result of the ‘explosive’ increase of the refugee flows. In the beginning it was just a synthesis of innumerous personal tragedies, before it became an official European ‘problem’.If we ‘leap’ through time and refer on today, we can observe that the massive death toll in the Mediterranean was only the starting point of a vicious circle, which is strongly related with developmental, political and communication issues.Through this thesis my goal was to examine how four European newspapers (which represent both Europe’s North and South) have reported on the biggest humanitarian crisis in Europe since the World War II. What strikes me as a very interesting aspect is that the refugees, as representatives of the developing countries have come in the territory of the European developed countries. Therefore I believe that there is space for a wide development dialogue and I would like to examine at what point the media seized this opportunity to reflect on development issues, through their cover stories.I have performed a combination of quantitative/qualitative methods of analysis. A full scale content analysis of 85 articles has been performed as the quantitative part and this was my primary research method. My secondary method of analysis was about the visual elements used by the newspapers and I have relied on semiotics to examine 141 photographs.