Business cycle is an important issue for economist. Because the fluctuations of product and employment have deep influences on people¡¦s life and social stability, almost every government tries to reduce the volatility of national business cycles. If we want to make it, we must realize it first. Since countries communicate with each other more frequently in recent decades, the volatility of national product cycles is not only influenced by domestic economic variables but also foreign ones. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of transmission mechanism on international business cycles synchronization (BCCs). The major purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of international vertical specialization on BCCs among industrial countries. There are two kinds of effect. One is indirect effect. Vertical specialization happens between industrial countries and developing countries, so it can reduce bilateral trade intensity among industrial countries. Through this way, BCCs among industrial countries will reduce. The other one is direct effect. Vertical specialization changes the economic structure of industrial countries. Industrial countries can focus on product development and market research. This kind of economic structure is less capital intensive, which lessens the effect of common shocks to industrial country¡¦s business cycles. BCCs among industrial countries will reduce. We measured the effect using the data from G6 (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, UK and US). The result is consistent with our inferance. Vertical specialization can reduce BCCs by reducing bilateral trade intensive among industrial countries. There is a negative relation between Vertical specialization and BCCs among industrial countries.

Many real-world datasets have spatial components that provide valuable information about characteristics of the data. In this dissertation, a novel framework for adaptive models that exploit spatial information in data is proposed. The proposed framework is mainly based on development and applications of Gaussian processes. First, a supervised learning method is proposed for the classification of hyperspectral data with spatially adaptive model parameters. The proposed algorithm models spatially varying means of each spectral band of a given class using a Gaussian process regression model. For a given location, the predictive distribution of a given class is modeled by a multivariate Gaussian distribution with spatially adjusted parameters obtained from the proposed algorithm. The Gaussian process model is generally regarded as a good tool for interpolation, but not for extrapolation. Moreover, the uncertainty of the predictive distribution increases as the distance from the training instances increases. To overcome this problem, a semi-supervised learning algorithm is presented for the classification of hyperspectral data with spatially adaptive model parameters. This algorithm fits the test data with a spatially adaptive mixture-of-Gaussians model, where the spatially varying parameters of each component are obtained by Gaussian process regressions with soft memberships using the mixture-of-Gaussian-processes model. The proposed semi-supervised algorithm assumes a transductive setting, where the unlabeled data is considered to be similar to the training data. This is not true in general, however, since one may not know how many classes may existin the unexplored regions. A spatially adaptive nonparametric Bayesian framework is therefore proposed by applying spatially adaptive mechanisms to the mixture model with infinitely many components. In this method, each component in the mixture has spatially adapted parameters estimated by Gaussian process regressions, and spatial correlations between indicator variables are also considered. In addition to land cover and land use classification applications based on hyperspectral imagery, the Gaussian process-based spatio-temporal model is also applied to predict ground-based aerosol optical depth measurements from satellite multispectral images, and to select the most informative ground-based sites by active learning. In this application, heterogeneous features with spatial and temporal information are incorporated together by employing a set of covariance functions, and it is shown that the spatio-temporal information exploited in this manner substantially improves the regression model. The conventional meaning of spatial information usually refers to actual spatio-temporal locations in the physical world. In the final chapter of this dissertation, the meaning of spatial information is generalized to the parametrized low-dimensional representation of data in feature space, and a corresponding spatial modeling technique is exploited to develop a nearest-manifold classification algorithm. / text

Recent studies suggest a possible correlated evolution of wing morphology, wing beat frequency, muscle biochemistry and flight metabolic rate in bees. In order to investigate the degree to which natural selection can act on these traits, an estimation of heritability was required. Commercial and laboratory reared colonies from wild caught queens were used to estimate narrow-sense (h2) and broad-sense (H2) heritability of flight metabolic rate and its associated traits in the bumblebee Bombus impatiens. h2 estimates obtained from parent-offspring regressions were not statistically significant. H2 estimates were significant for morphological traits (body mass and wing morphology) as well as whole-animal traits (flight and resting metabolic rate, wing beat frequency) in both populations. We suggest that queens have a decrease in flight performance as a result of a trade-off between flight and fecundity, explaining the lack of significance in parent-offspring regressions.

The purpose of this thesis is to explore the possibilities and advantages of describing macroeconomic relationships with a certain well-defined class of parametric nonlinear econometric models, called smooth transition regressions (STR). An STR model is a flexible nonlinear specification with a continuum of regimes. It is locally linear transitions from one extreme regime to another are determined by a function of a continuous variable, the transition variable.The thesis consists of four essays and the macroeconomic relationships that are considered are: Consumption, Money Demand and the Phillips Curve. The essays of this dissertation emphasise the importance of allowing for a flexible functional form when dealing with macroeconomic relationships. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

Thesis (M.G.S.)--Miami University, Dept. of Sociology and Gerontology, 2008. / Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 44-47).

O presente trabalho descreve as assembléias de diatomáceas, presentes em um perfil sedimentar na Lagoa do Peixe, Litoral Médio do Rio Grande do Sul, com o objetivo de efetuar a reconstrução paleoambiental e identificar os períodos de maior influência marinha e hidrodinâmica, como conseqüências das variações do nível do mar ocorridas durante o Holoceno. O testemunho de sondagem T09 foi selecionado para estudo, devido à boa recuperação e à presença de um espesso pacote de lama próximo à base. Os resultados da análise de diatomáceas revelaram a presença de 114 táxons, constituintes das assembléias fósseis, dominadas pelo complexo de Paralia (Paralia fenestrata, P.sulcata e Paralia sp.), associados à táxons marinhos, entre eles: Auliscus caelatus e Triceratium favus; e os táxons marinhos salobros: Cyclotella striata, Dimeregramma marinum, D. minor var. minor e Psamococconeis disculoides, entre outros. Os resultados da distribuição, tafonomia e paleoecologia do complexo de Paralia e das assembléias presentes ao longo do perfil, forneceram maior detalhamento evolutivo do sistema lagunar associadas à ocorrência de três oscilações de alta freqüência do nível do mar na PCRS, interligadas à períodos de maior influência hidrodinâmica, comprovando que a morfologia lagunar sofreu intensas modificações ao longo do tempo. Entre as idades de 7420-7020 e 5370-5340 anos AP, ocorreram duas oscilações de alta freqüência, que atingiram o sistema lagunar, afetando diretamente as assembléias presentes. Entre as idades de 5370-5340- 2340-2060 anos AP, ocorreu uma terceira oscilação de alta freqüência, concordando com o máximo transgressivo registrado para a região sul do Brasil. A distinta composição observada entre as assembléias fósseis e atuais (preservadas em sedimentos superficiais) é um indicativo de que durante o Holoceno, a Lagoa do Peixe comportou-se como um sistema lagunar, apresentando características morfosedimentares, geomorfológicas, hidrodinâmicas e ecológicas, totalmente diferente das condições atuais, onde assume configurações de lagoa costeira semi-fechada, de ligação restrita com o oceano por meio de um canal de ligação. / This paper describes the diatom assemblages present in a sediment profile in the Lagoa do Peixe, Middle Littoral of Rio Grande do Sul, in order to make the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and identify periods of increased marine influence and hydrodynamics, as a consequence of changes sea level occurred during the Holocene. The drill core T09 was selected for study due to good recovery and the presence of a thick pack of mud near the base. The results of diatom analysis revealed the presence of 114 taxa, constituents of fossil assemblages, dominated by complex Paralia (Paralia fenestrata, P.sulcata and Paralia sp.), associated with marine taxa: Auliscus caelatus and Triceratium favus, brackish and marine taxa: Cyclotella striata, Dimeregramma marinum, D. minor var.minor and Psamococconeis disculoides, among others. The results of the distribution, taphonomy and paleoecology of Paralia complex assemblages, present along the profile, provided a more detailed evolution of the lagoon system associated with the occurrence of three high-frequency oscillations in sea level in the PCRS, linked to periods of greater influence hydrodynamics, proving that the lagoon morphology underwent enormous changes over time. Between the ages of 7420- 7020 and 5370-5340 years BP, there were two high frequency oscillations, which reached the lagoon system, directly affecting the assemblages present. Between the ages of 5370-5340- 2340-2060 years BP, there was a third high frequency oscillation, in agreement with the transgressive maximum recorded for the southern region of Brazil. The difference in composition observed between the modern and fossil assemblages (preserved in surface sediments), is an indication that during the Holocene, the Lagoa do Peixe, behaved like a lagoon system, whose morphosedimentar, geomorphological, hydrodynamic and ecological characteristics were totally dissimilar from actual conditions representing semi-enclosed coastal lagoon which had restricted connection with the oceano through an inlet.

In a world with an increasing flow of written information online and offline, the demand for automatic translation, simplification and summarization technology is growing. The tool StilLett uses several lexical and semantic rules to automatically simplify text, shortening the time from original text to simplified text compared to manual simplification. Four of the simplification types were evaluated in this study, using three different eye tracking measures; total dwell time, number of regressions, and average fixation duration. No statistically significant differences were found for any of the simplification types when compared to the corresponding original sentences, indicating that for this population the difficulty of the sentences was roughly the same.

The world’s population is increasing and along with it, the demand for food. A novel parametric model (Volterra Non-linear Regressive with eXogenous inputs (VNRX)) is introduced for quantifying influences of individual and multiple soil properties on crop yield and normalised difference vegetation Index. The performance was compared to a random forest method over two consecutive years, with the best results of 55.6% and 52%, respectively. The VNRX was then implemented using high sampling resolution soil data collected with an on-line visible and near infrared (vis-NIR) spectroscopy sensor predicting yield variation of 23.21%. A hyperspectral imager coupled with partial least squares regression was successfully applied in the detection of fusarium head blight and yellow rust infection in winter wheat and barley canopies, under laboratory and on-line measurement conditions. Maps of the two diseases were developed for four fields. Spectral indices of the standard deviation between 500 to 650 nm, and the squared difference between 650 and 700 nm, were found to be useful in differentiating between the two diseases, in the two crops, under variable water stress. The optimisation of the hyperspectral imager for field measurement was based on signal-to-noise ratio, and considered; camera angle and distance, integration time, and light source angle and distance from the crop canopy. The study summarises in the proposal of a new method of disease management through suggested selective harvest and fungicide applications, for winter wheat and barley which theoretically reduced fungicide rate by an average of 24% and offers a combined saving of the two methods of £83 per hectare.

O presente trabalho descreve as assembléias de diatomáceas, presentes em um perfil sedimentar na Lagoa do Peixe, Litoral Médio do Rio Grande do Sul, com o objetivo de efetuar a reconstrução paleoambiental e identificar os períodos de maior influência marinha e hidrodinâmica, como conseqüências das variações do nível do mar ocorridas durante o Holoceno. O testemunho de sondagem T09 foi selecionado para estudo, devido à boa recuperação e à presença de um espesso pacote de lama próximo à base. Os resultados da análise de diatomáceas revelaram a presença de 114 táxons, constituintes das assembléias fósseis, dominadas pelo complexo de Paralia (Paralia fenestrata, P.sulcata e Paralia sp.), associados à táxons marinhos, entre eles: Auliscus caelatus e Triceratium favus; e os táxons marinhos salobros: Cyclotella striata, Dimeregramma marinum, D. minor var. minor e Psamococconeis disculoides, entre outros. Os resultados da distribuição, tafonomia e paleoecologia do complexo de Paralia e das assembléias presentes ao longo do perfil, forneceram maior detalhamento evolutivo do sistema lagunar associadas à ocorrência de três oscilações de alta freqüência do nível do mar na PCRS, interligadas à períodos de maior influência hidrodinâmica, comprovando que a morfologia lagunar sofreu intensas modificações ao longo do tempo. Entre as idades de 7420-7020 e 5370-5340 anos AP, ocorreram duas oscilações de alta freqüência, que atingiram o sistema lagunar, afetando diretamente as assembléias presentes. Entre as idades de 5370-5340- 2340-2060 anos AP, ocorreu uma terceira oscilação de alta freqüência, concordando com o máximo transgressivo registrado para a região sul do Brasil. A distinta composição observada entre as assembléias fósseis e atuais (preservadas em sedimentos superficiais) é um indicativo de que durante o Holoceno, a Lagoa do Peixe comportou-se como um sistema lagunar, apresentando características morfosedimentares, geomorfológicas, hidrodinâmicas e ecológicas, totalmente diferente das condições atuais, onde assume configurações de lagoa costeira semi-fechada, de ligação restrita com o oceano por meio de um canal de ligação. / This paper describes the diatom assemblages present in a sediment profile in the Lagoa do Peixe, Middle Littoral of Rio Grande do Sul, in order to make the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and identify periods of increased marine influence and hydrodynamics, as a consequence of changes sea level occurred during the Holocene. The drill core T09 was selected for study due to good recovery and the presence of a thick pack of mud near the base. The results of diatom analysis revealed the presence of 114 taxa, constituents of fossil assemblages, dominated by complex Paralia (Paralia fenestrata, P.sulcata and Paralia sp.), associated with marine taxa: Auliscus caelatus and Triceratium favus, brackish and marine taxa: Cyclotella striata, Dimeregramma marinum, D. minor var.minor and Psamococconeis disculoides, among others. The results of the distribution, taphonomy and paleoecology of Paralia complex assemblages, present along the profile, provided a more detailed evolution of the lagoon system associated with the occurrence of three high-frequency oscillations in sea level in the PCRS, linked to periods of greater influence hydrodynamics, proving that the lagoon morphology underwent enormous changes over time. Between the ages of 7420- 7020 and 5370-5340 years BP, there were two high frequency oscillations, which reached the lagoon system, directly affecting the assemblages present. Between the ages of 5370-5340- 2340-2060 years BP, there was a third high frequency oscillation, in agreement with the transgressive maximum recorded for the southern region of Brazil. The difference in composition observed between the modern and fossil assemblages (preserved in surface sediments), is an indication that during the Holocene, the Lagoa do Peixe, behaved like a lagoon system, whose morphosedimentar, geomorphological, hydrodynamic and ecological characteristics were totally dissimilar from actual conditions representing semi-enclosed coastal lagoon which had restricted connection with the oceano through an inlet.

abstract: Financing lease has bloomed as a new financing tool in China for the last several years. In this thesis I investigate the factors that influence China’s automobile financial leasing decisions by both lessors and lessees through market surveys. Based on Probit regression analysis of the data collected from 250 companies and 300 individuals, I find that a firm is more likely to use automobile financial leasing when its corporate tax rate is lower, growth potential is more stabilized, and profit is higher. It is also more likely to happen when a firm's long-term debt ratio and its degree of internationalization are higher. At the individual level, I find that the likelihood of individuals’ leasing decision is influenced by their risk preference, income level, and car price. Individuals’ gender, age and education level show no effect. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analysis, I further find that financing costs, service value-added, and products diversity are the three most important competitive factors for the auto financial leasing service providers. This is the case for both the corporate and individual customers in the sample. By contrast, the factors of sales channel and government relationship are found to be much less important. Finally, through an in-depth case study of the leasing company Shanghai Auto Financial Leasing, I find that the key factors determining the customers’ credit default risk are interest rate and automobile type. I also investigate factors that influence business risk during the automobile procurement stage, at the selling stage, and toward the disposition stage. The managerial implications of the above results are discussed throughout the thesis. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2015