ABSTRACT This dissertation constructs three strategic trade models. The first model is a single-shot two-stage game model of intra-industry trade with trade retaliation against government provided export subsidies and lobbying by foreign firm on domestic government¡¦s import tariff. The second model is an infinite repeated game model of intra-industry where the history of government and firm interaction is the basis for constructing trade strategies. The third model is a single-shot three-stage game model of intra-industry trade with the linkage between domestic and foreign intermediate-input and final-good industries and the choice of optimal export subsidies in the two industries for two governments. Chapter 1 introduces the motivation, objectives, framework, and literature review of this dissertation. The literature review is organized as follows. Initially we review the foundations of the basic intra-industry trade model, where our model is rooted. Next we present the more significant papers that describe the sensitivity of the basic model, because our repeated game model will show yet another way that the basic model is sensitive. Next we present some dynamic game theoretic results, which we use to construct our repeated game model. Finally, we review some papers related to intermediate input and strategic trade. The first model is developed in Chapter 2. We discover that there are two perfect strategy subgame perfect equilibria in this model. And then an import tariff is available, and using that tariff will remove the benefits originally conferred by an export subsidy. Active trade policy is not eliminated by the two governments and tariff policy is larger than subsidy policy. Hence, an import tariff will more than offset the anticipated gains from a subsidy policy. There is no reason to believe that one equilibrium is better or more likely than another, because the highest payoffs equilibrium of the two governments and domestic firm is not the best payoff equilibrium of the foreign firm. We used the single-shot game model of Chapter 2 and molded it into a repeated game in Chapter 3. First, we found the set of Nash equilibria toward solving the repeated game model. Second, we only focused on the subgame perfect equilibria from the infinite Nash equilibria¡¦s set. We used the result in Fudenberg and Maskin (1986) to define the subgame perfect equilibria. Third, we showed that in the repeated game a subgame perfect strategy of free trade can increase all players¡¦ payoffs which are better than the single-shot game equilibrium payoffs. Chapter 4 develops the third model. We observe how domestic and foreign governments choose their optimum export subsidy policies for their intermediate input and final good production by using the linkage between domestic and foreign intermediate-input and final-good industries under the condition of vertical specialization. The result indicates that under the condition of vertical specialization, the two governments will choose positive export subsidies for their final goods while they will give no subsidies for their intermediate inputs. Chapter 5 presented the implications of vertical specialization on the cross-strait economy and trade. To maintain the competitive advantage of Taiwan economy and smoothly upgrade industry structure, transferring the labor-intensive industry and the labor-intensive production sections to China seems an optimum choice under the principle of comparative advantages. Nevertheless, for Taiwan, the upgrade of local industries has never stopped, but with the acceleration of industrial relocation, the transformation of production and trade structures are also taking place. The impact carried by this transformation is extensive and profound. In addition to obvious impact on the economic perspective, if the structure of employment market cannot react in time, a great social cost may be incurred. How to utilize the edge of industrial specialization between the Strait to strengthen Taiwanese industries¡¦ competitive, enhance product development ability through cooperation with multinational enterprises, dominate product development, and establish a center of task division for regional industries can be one of the main focuses in the development of Taiwan¡¦s industrial policy.

Business cycle is an important issue for economist. Because the fluctuations of product and employment have deep influences on people¡¦s life and social stability, almost every government tries to reduce the volatility of national business cycles. If we want to make it, we must realize it first. Since countries communicate with each other more frequently in recent decades, the volatility of national product cycles is not only influenced by domestic economic variables but also foreign ones. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of transmission mechanism on international business cycles synchronization (BCCs). The major purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of international vertical specialization on BCCs among industrial countries. There are two kinds of effect. One is indirect effect. Vertical specialization happens between industrial countries and developing countries, so it can reduce bilateral trade intensity among industrial countries. Through this way, BCCs among industrial countries will reduce. The other one is direct effect. Vertical specialization changes the economic structure of industrial countries. Industrial countries can focus on product development and market research. This kind of economic structure is less capital intensive, which lessens the effect of common shocks to industrial country¡¦s business cycles. BCCs among industrial countries will reduce. We measured the effect using the data from G6 (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, UK and US). The result is consistent with our inferance. Vertical specialization can reduce BCCs by reducing bilateral trade intensive among industrial countries. There is a negative relation between Vertical specialization and BCCs among industrial countries.

This dissertation consists of three essays in International Trade. The first essay studies the impact of changing tariffs on the range of goods countries export to the United States. The empirical analysis shows that tariffs tend to have a statistically significant but small impact: at best 5 percent of the increasing extensive margin for 1989-1999 and 12 percent for 1996-2006 is explained by tariff reductions. This suggests the extensive margin has not amplified the impact of tariffs on trade flows to such an extent that the relatively moderate tariff reductions since WW II can explain the strong growth of world trade. The second essay investigates the sector and country determinants of the range of goods that countries export to the United States. Besides relating the traditional determinants of comparative advantage, sectors’ factor intensities interacted with countries’ factor abundance to the extensive margin in a sector, the empirical investigation includes interactions between sector-level measures of intermediate intensity and trade frictions. Consistent with hypotheses about fragmentation, the results show that closer countries and countries with lower tariffs imposed on them export a wider range of goods in sectors that have large intermediate cost shares. The impact of trade frictions is, however, far less pronounced for the more skilled-labor intensive sectors that are characterized by use of a greater range of intermediates. The third essay studies the impact of trade liberalizations on U.S. bilateral trade from 1989-2001 with a focus on the influence of exporting country liberalizations which matter when exports are produced with imported intermediates. Guided by extensions of the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model which allows for production to involve the use of imported intermediates, the essay estimates a structural equation that links U.S. bilateral trade flows to both intermediate tariffs imposed by countries exporting to the United States and U.S. tariffs. The empirical estimates suggest that especially for less developed countries their own liberalizations have been quantitatively much more important in explaining bilateral trade growth with an effect 3 times larger than the impact of U.S. liberalizations. / text

Cette thèse a pour ambition de transposer l'analyse du commerce international au niveau sub-national en examinant la structure et les déterminants du commerce entre états brésiliens, et avec les marchés internationaux. Dans un chapitre introductif, on présente les faits stylisés sur la le commerce brésilien en se concentrant essentiellement sur les caractéristiques des états brésiliens. Dans le premier chapitre, notre modèle de gravité, estime séparément les capacités d'exportation des états vers les marchés domestique et international. Les résultats montrent que les états les mieux classés en termes de capacités d'exportation vers le marché international ne se confondent pas avec les plus orientés vers le marché domestique. Dans le second chapitre, on utilise un modèle de gravité pour mettre en évidence les effets de création et de détournement de commerce ainsi qu’un un effet d’ « érosion des préférences ». Nous montrons que le MERCOSUR a permis d’augmenter le commerce des états avec les pays membres, sans effets significatifs sur le commerce inter-états ou avec les pays tiers. Les organisations internationales, suggèrent que le commerce en valeur ajoutée est une meilleure mesure pour analyser l’impact des échanges internationaux sur l’économie quand le contenu en importations des exportations est important. Dans un dernier chapitre, on calcule ainsi les valeurs ajoutées exportées des états brésiliens à partir d’un tableau Input-Output inter-états (2008) pour analyser et mesurer les spécialisations verticales entre les états. On estime également un modèle de gravité de commerce en valeur ajoutée qu’on élargit à un cadre trilatéral: l’état d’origine, l’état ré-exportateur et le pays importateur. / With the ambition of transposing trade analysis to an intra-national level, we work on the determinants and the structure of trade among Brazilian states, as well as their trade with international markets. In an introductory chapter, we present the stylized facts concerning the Brazilian trade while focusing mainly on the states’ characteristics. In chapter 1, we estimate the states’ domestic and foreign market export capacities by a gravity model of trade. Results show that the states with better foreign export capacities are not necessarily the same as those more oriented to the domestic market. Then in the second chapter, we use a gravity model to shed light on MERCOSUR’s creation and diversion effects as well as its “preference erosion” effect on trade among Brazilian states. We show that MERCOSUR increased Brazilian states’ trade with member countries, but had no significant effect on either interstate trade or Brazilian states’ trade with third countries. International organizations suggest the trade in value-added would be a “better” measure to understand the impact of trade on economy when import content in exports is important. Hence in a last chapter, we calculate the value-added exported by Brazilian states from an inter-state Input-Output table (2008) that we use to analyze and measure the vertical specialization between states. We also estimate a gravity model of trade in exported value-added that we extend to a trilateral frame: origin state, re-exporter state and importer country.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Como uma medida sintética do grau de fragmentação da produção, muitos estudos recentes tem se empenhado em coletar evidências da especialização vertical para as economias desenvolvidas, mas pouca atenção tem sido aplicada às economias em desenvolvimento e, em particular, para o Brasil. A contribuição chave desta dissertação é prover estimativas comparáveis da especialização vertical refletidas no conteúdo importado das exportações do Brasil. Com base nas matrizes de insumo-produto (MIP) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) de 1990 a 1996 e nas mais recentes 2000 e 2005, foi estimado que o conteúdo importado das exportações brasileiras é em média 10,4% de 1990 a 1996 e 15% para 2000 e 2005. Estimativas do conteúdo importado desagregadas por atividades também foram obtidas para os anos 1990, 1995, 2000 e 2005. / As a summary measure of the degree of production fragmentation, many recent studies has been engaged in collecting evidence of vertical specialization for developed economies, but little attention has been applied to developing economies and, in particular, to Brazil. The key contribution of this thesis is to provide comparable estimates of vertical specialization reflected in the import content of exports from Brazil. Based on the input-output matrices (MIP) of the Brazilian Bureau of Geography and Statistics from 1990 to 1996 and the latest 2000 and 2005, it was estimated that the import content of Brazilian exports is on average 10.4% from 1990 to 1996 and 15% for 2000 and 2005. Estimates of imported content disaggregated activities were also obtained for the years 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The development of globalization process - especially from the late twentieth century - modified the traditional forms of organization of production and international trade between countries and companies. The major economic importance of transnational companies makes these can resize these traditional forms of production and trade, and implement the so-called Global Value Chains (GVCs), which are based on a bigger fragmentation and international production verticalization, as well as bigger interconnectivity of production and business processes across economies. This study aims to contribute to the analytical and empirical study of insertion segments of the Brazilian industry in GVCs. The study aims to specify the analysis having as object the electro-electronics and mechanical metal complexes, from the Vertical Specialization methodology proposed by Hummels et al (2001) in three periods time cuts 2000, 2005 and 2009. The results showed that Brazil is weakly inserted in GVCs, because it was observed a low value embedded foreign exports (11.62%, 11.04%, 9.22%). Comparing the Brazilian electro-electronics and mechanical metal complexes, it was observed that the contents of both complexes are also low, but the results for the electro-electronics complex (21.39%, 20.36%, 17.53%) were superior to the results from the mechanical metal complex (18.52%, 17.24%, 16.32%). Thus the Brazilian industrial structure is still poorly integrated into the global trade, and in the scope of analysis of the study, the Brazilian electro-electronics manufacturing is the one that most suited to the fragmentation of activities in GVCs. / O desenvolvimento do processo de globalização especialmente a partir do final do século XX modificou as formas tradicionais da organização da produção e de comércio internacional entre países e empresas. A maior importância econômica das empresas transnacionais levou-as a redimensionar as formas tradicionais de produção e comércio e implementar as denominadas Cadeias Globais de Valor (CGVs), que têm por base a fragmentação e verticalização internacional da produção, bem como a maior interconectividade de processos produtivos e comerciais entre economias. O presente estudo tem como objetivo quantificar a especialização vertical em CGVs do Brasil e de segmentos da indústria brasileira. Procura-se aprofundar a análise tendo como objeto os complexos eletroeletrônico e metal mecânico, em cortes de três períodos no tempo 2000, 2005 e 2009. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o Brasil está inserido fracamente em CGVs, pois se observou um baixo valor estrangeiro incorporado às exportações (11,62%, 11,04%, 9,22%). Comparando os complexos eletroeletrônico e metal mecânico brasileiros, observou-se que os índices de ambos complexos também são baixos, mas os resultados para o complexo eletroeletrônico (21,39%, 20,36%, 17,53%) se mostraram superiores aos resultados do complexo metal mecânico (18,52%, 17,24%, 16,32%). Dessa forma, mesmo após uma maior internacionalização produtiva a partir da abertura comercial, ainda existem dificuldades para o Brasil se integrar em CGVs de forma mais dinâmica e competitiva nos setores relevantes do ponto de vista industrial, dentre os quais se destaca o complexo metal mecânico e eletroeletrônico.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Como uma medida sintética do grau de fragmentação da produção, muitos estudos recentes tem se empenhado em coletar evidências da especialização vertical para as economias desenvolvidas, mas pouca atenção tem sido aplicada às economias em desenvolvimento e, em particular, para o Brasil. A contribuição chave desta dissertação é prover estimativas comparáveis da especialização vertical refletidas no conteúdo importado das exportações do Brasil. Com base nas matrizes de insumo-produto (MIP) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) de 1990 a 1996 e nas mais recentes 2000 e 2005, foi estimado que o conteúdo importado das exportações brasileiras é em média 10,4% de 1990 a 1996 e 15% para 2000 e 2005. Estimativas do conteúdo importado desagregadas por atividades também foram obtidas para os anos 1990, 1995, 2000 e 2005. / As a summary measure of the degree of production fragmentation, many recent studies has been engaged in collecting evidence of vertical specialization for developed economies, but little attention has been applied to developing economies and, in particular, to Brazil. The key contribution of this thesis is to provide comparable estimates of vertical specialization reflected in the import content of exports from Brazil. Based on the input-output matrices (MIP) of the Brazilian Bureau of Geography and Statistics from 1990 to 1996 and the latest 2000 and 2005, it was estimated that the import content of Brazilian exports is on average 10.4% from 1990 to 1996 and 15% for 2000 and 2005. Estimates of imported content disaggregated activities were also obtained for the years 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005.

Cette thèse s’interroge sur les déterminants des divergences de performances commerciales au sein de la zone euro à travers quatre études empiriques. La première revient sur l’impact des spécialisations sur les performances à l’exportation, à l’aide d’une étude dynamique des avantages comparatifs et d’une analyse à parts de marché constantes. La seconde introduit une mesure élargie de la compétitivité structurelle dans la modélisation des équations d’exportation traditionnelles à travers l’étude d’un indicateur composite de compétitivité. La troisième étudie le lien entre investissements directs à l’étranger et performances commerciales dans les pays de la zone euro par le biais de tests de causalité en panel hétérogène et d’équations de gravité. Enfin, la dernière partie de cette thèse revient sur les stratégies d’internationalisation de la production et leurs conséquences sur les performances commerciales des pays à travers l’étude du comportement des constructeurs automobiles européens. Les meilleures performances de l’Allemagne ne proviennent pas uniquement de sa compétitivité-coût. L’innovation accrue de ses produits, ses infrastructures, sa politique visant à diminuer les coûts pour ses entreprises via un accès privilégié au crédit et une politique fiscale avantageuse couplées à l’accroissement de la fragmentation de sa production expliquent sa « surperformance » sur le marché mondial. Au contraire, les entreprises françaises ont souffert de la hausse des coûts salariaux dans le pays mais également du manque d’innovation de leurs produits et de leurs stratégies de délocalisation totale de la production. / This thesis is composed of four empirical studies investigating the determinants of export performance discrepancies in the Euro area. The first study evaluates the impact of specialization on export performances relying on a dynamic study of the comparative advantages and a constant market share analysis. A second chapter introduces a new enlarged measure of competitiveness in the traditional export equations based on the study of a composite competitiveness indicator. The third chapter examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and Euro area export performances using both causality tests in a heterogeneous panel and gravity equations. The final part of this thesis discusses the impact of internationalization of production’ strategies on country’s export performances focussing on an analysis of European car manufacturers’ behaviour. The strong German export performance does not only result from its cost competitiveness. The innovation of its products, its infrastructures, its policies aiming at reducing costs for its firms through access to credit and a favourable fiscal policy associated with the increasing fragmentation of its production explain its "over-performance" on the world market. On the contrary, rising labour costs, the lack of product innovation and a strategy of extensive production offshoring hurt the competitiveness of French firms.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2018-07-23T11:50:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 inaciofernandesdearaujojunior.pdf: 3989534 bytes, checksum: efdd8fd98640b17dd2720d5074098e7c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-09-03T16:18:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 inaciofernandesdearaujojunior.pdf: 3989534 bytes, checksum: efdd8fd98640b17dd2720d5074098e7c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-03T16:18:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 inaciofernandesdearaujojunior.pdf: 3989534 bytes, checksum: efdd8fd98640b17dd2720d5074098e7c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-22 / A intensificação da fragmentação internacional das cadeias de produção alterou a estrutura do comércio bilateral nas últimas décadas. A terceirização internacional e a especialização dos países nas cadeias de produção verticalmente integradas são determinantes dessa fragmentação. A terceirização internacional está relacionada à decisão das empresas em realizar parte dos estágios produtivos no exterior. A especialização vertical é definida pela interconexão dos processos de produção em uma cadeia de comércio vertical e sequencial, que se estendem por diferentes países especializados em estágios específicos da produção. No cenário de especialização vertical torna-se necessário diferenciar o comércio bruto e o comércio de valor adicionado para identificar a contribuição de cada país na produção global. Nesse contexto, a tese de doutorado investigou os determinantes da fragmentação internacional em relação à posição que as indústrias ocupam nas cadeias de produção e às medidas não-tarifárias de restrição de acesso aos mercados. O estudo usou uma base de dados construída a partir das matrizes inter-regionais de insumo-produto no âmbito global. A análise de insumo-produto mensurou o valor adicionado estrangeiro na produção e identificou a extensão geográfica das cadeias globais de valor. As medidas de especialização vertical, calculadas na abordagem de insumo-produto, rastrearam todos os encadeamentos produtivos por meio da estrutura de interdependência industrial. Desse modo, essa análise contabilizou a participação direta e indireta de cada país na produção global, considerando todos os estágios das cadeias globais. O estudo possibilitou compreender a inserção nas cadeias de valor em diferentes dimensões das redes globais de produção. Os principais resultados também mostram que as medidas nãotarifárias representam restrições importantes ao comércio de valor adicionado. Assim, embora a economia global tenha intensificado a fragmentação internacional das cadeias de produção, impulsionada dentre outros fatores pela redução tarifária, a adoção de medidas não-tarifárias dificulta a inserção dos países em estágios específicos dessas cadeias globais de produção. / The intensification of international fragmentation of production chains has altered the structure of bilateral trade in recent decades. The outsourcing and the specialization of countries in vertically integrated production chains determine this fragmentation. Outsourcing is related to the companies decision to carry out stages of the production abroad. Vertical specialization is defined by the interconnection of the production in a vertical and sequential chain of trade, which extends itself across different countries that specialize in specific stages of the production. In the vertical specialization scenario, it is necessary to differentiate the gross and value-added trade to identify the contribution of each country in the global production. In this context, the doctoral thesis investigated the determinants of international fragmentation by the position of industries in the production chains and the non-tariff measures restricting access to markets. The study used a database built from interregional input-output tables at global level. The input-output analysis measured foreign value added in production and identified the geographic extent of the global value chains. Vertical specialization measures, calculated in the input-output approach, tracked all productive linkages through the structure of industrial interdependence. Thus, this analysis counted the direct and indirect participation of each country in the global production, considering all the stages of the global chains. The study made it possible to understand the insertion in the value chains in different dimensions of the global production networks. The main results also show that the non-tariff measures are restrictions on the trade in value added. Therefore, the global economy has intensified the international fragmentation of production chains, driven, among other factors, by the reduction of tariffs, but the adoption of the non-tariff measures has made it difficult for countries to enter specific stages of these global production chains.