Worldwide energy policies are built on three pillars: ‘cost competitiveness’, ‘security of energy supply’, and ‘environmental responsibility.’ This has brought about the integration of renewable energy sources into national systems with the deployment of policy instruments to make renewable energy sources electricity (RES-E) capable of nearly competing on a commercial basis with traditional forms of electricity generation. At the national level within the EU, there has been much experimentation with different policy instruments with varying levels of success. Nevertheless the EU as a whole will not meet its stipulated renewable energy target. This study challenges the theoretical and abstract evaluation presented in the literature about EU wind power delivery systems and has developed an integrative evaluation framework. This evaluation framework is used in this study to present the views of key stakeholders on their experiences with the performance of key policy instruments (feed-in tariff, and renewables obligation) implemented in three EU Member States namely: Germany, The Netherlands, and United Kingdom. It also challenges the EU-wide harmonised renewable energy policy agenda as proposed in Directive 2001/77/EC. The concept of path dependency of the historical institutional approach was adopted in order to explore the diversity of the wind power industry across the three country cases. An indepth semi-structured interview with fifty-five senior wind power policy makers and experts was conducted to explore the historical emergence, the architect, and the outcome of the support and implementation of the policy instruments. Findings showed that the approach to wind power deployment in the three country cases differs significantly and this has affected the pattern of each country’s wind power policy instrument. Also, the role and contribution of the stakeholder groups to the success of the wind power policy instruments differ significantly in each of the country cases. This helps to explain the performance of the different policy instruments adopted. Concerning the harmonisation of EU renewable energy policy instruments which have received much attention in recent times, this study found that harmonisation based on a single policy instrument is not feasible and may ultimately inhibit the growth of the European wind power market. A harmonised system may cause uncertainties amongst willing investors, thereby causing a withdrawal of further investment in the wind power market. If this happens, Europe may also lose its position as the world leader in the wind power market. Furthermore, national histories demonstrates that Member States have different culture, stakeholder groups, political, and business practices that will influence policy instruments and the likelihood of any policy succeeding. Thus, rather than promoting harmonisation and political market for wind power, it is important that Member States adopt and implement, stable, flexible, and transparent policy instruments that enable wind power and other renewable energy sources to emerge, develop, and go through the R&D stage to a point of maturity where they can compete with other energy sources with limited financial support.

During the past decade, renewable energy sources have become an indispensable pillar in European electricity generation. This paper aims at examining if the increasing importance of renewables stimulates investment in European power transmission networks. The question of interest is addressed by an error correction investment model that builds on Neoclassical theory and is further augmented by recent literary findings. Under the proposed threefold estimation strategy, the share of renewables is not found to significantly influence investment spending when the full set of transmission system operators are considered. However, a slight and justified sample restriction leads to the conclusion that a rising share of renewable energy sources substantially increases investment in power transmission networks. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Using hourly data, we show that the convergence of German and French electricity spot prices depends on the employed generation mix structure, on the trade (export/import) capacity between the two countries, and on characteristics of neighbouring markets. Only when German and French electricity markets employ "similar" generation mixes price spreads vanish, and the likelihood for congestion of electricity flows is significantly reduced. This implies that, at least, a part of the convergence that was documented in recent literature is spurious, because it is not (only) driven by the forces of arbitrage, but by the similarity of the Generation structures. The direction of congestion matters in this regard. Furthermore, we document consistent evidence for the most important predictions of trade theory if markets are characterized by increasing marginal cost (i.e. supply) curves and limited cross-border capacities. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

As the technology behind renewable energy sources becomes more advanced and cost-effective, these sources have become an ever-increasing portion of the generation portfolios of power systems across the country. While the shift away from non-renewable resources is generally considered beneficial, the fact remains that intermittent renewable sources present special challenges associated with their unique operating characteristics. Because of the high variability of intermittent renewables, the frequency performance of the system to which they are connected can degrade. Generators assigned to regulate frequency, keeping it close to the desired 60 Hz, are forced to ramp up and down quickly in order to offset the rise and fall of the variable resources (in addition to the rise and fall of load), causing transient frequency deviations, power swings, major interface transfer variations and other significant issues. This research measures the impact of intermittent renewable resource penetration level on power system frequency performance, and offers methods for managing that performance. Currently, the generally accepted amount of regulation (rapidly-dispatchable reserve, used as a supplement to base generation on a short time scale to avoid performance issues) is 1% of peak load. Because of the high variability associated with intermittent renewables, including wind generation (the focus of this thesis), it is expected that this amount of regulation must increase in order to maintain adequate system frequency performance. Thus, the primary objective of this thesis is to quantify the amount of regulation necessary to maintain adequate frequency performance as a function of the penetration level of wind generation. Presently, balancing resource requirements are computed, in both industry and in the research literature, using static models, which rely entirely on statistical manipulation of net load, failing to capture the intricacies of dynamic system and generator interactions. Using a dynamic model with high temporal resolution data, instead of these statistical models, this thesis confirms the need for additional regulation as wind generation penetration increases. But beyond that, our research demonstrates an exponentially increasing relationship between necessary regulation and wind generation percentage, indicating that, without further technological breakthroughs, there is a practical limit to the amount of wind generation that a typical system can accommodate. Furthermore, we compare our dynamic model results with those of the statistical models, and show that the majority of current statistical models substantially under-predict the necessary amount of regulation to accommodate significant amounts of wind generation. Finally, we verify that the ramping capability of the regulating generators impacts the amount of necessary regulation, although it is generally ignored in current analysis and related literature.

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Sinclair Mallet Guy Guerra / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia, 2014. / Diante do cenário energético de instabilidade de preços e degradação ambiental, ocasionados principalmente pela dependência de combustíveis fósseis, principalmente o petróleo, verifica-se a necessidade de ações que promovam o desenvolvimento de opções energéticas econômica e ambientalmente viáveis. O presente trabalho apresenta informações que indicam esta situação. Apresenta também informações que demonstram o importante papel que as fontes alternativas de energia tendem a desempenhar no desenvolvimento de ações que promovam uma alteração do contexto energético e de maneira mais detalhada é demonstrada a participação da biomassa. Mostra a representatividade do etanol neste contexto e o que representa o desenvolvimento de tecnologias para produção de etanol celulósico ou de segunda geração. O trabalho apresenta ainda os principais projetos que tem intuito de viabilizar os processos de produção desta tecnologia desenvolvidos por Estados Unidos, União Europeia e Brasil. Na análise dos investimentos são apresentados valores monetários, dando caráter quantitativo à pesquisa e que indicam que embora haja iniciativas, os projetos para produção de etanol de segunda geração indicam participação pouco significativas do PIB de cada um dos países apresentados. Além disso, uma análise qualitativa das informações apresenta o perfil dos investimentos que tem relevante presença do agente Estado no incentivo e financiamento dos projetos, o que indica a relevância das discussões de âmbito energético para o governo dos países estudados. / Against the backdrop of unstable energy prices and environmental degradation, mainly caused by dependence on fossil fuels, especially oil, there is a need for actions to promote the development of energy options economically and environmentally viable. This search presents information that indicates this. Also reports that demonstrate the important role that alternative energy sources tend to play in the development of actions that promote a change in the energy context and in more detail is shown the share of biomass. Shows the representativeness of ethanol in this context and the development of technologies for producing cellulosic ethanol or second generation. The paper also describes the major projects that have order to facilitate the process of production of the technology developed by the United States, European Union and Brazil. Through analysis of the research investment on it monetary values, giving quantitative approach to research and indicate that although there are initiatives, investments in projects for production of second generation ethanol capture some significant portions of each of the featured countries GDP. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis of the information shows the profile of the investments that have a significant presence of the agent state in encouraging and financing the projects, indicating the relevance of the discussions of energy under the government of the countries studied.

<p>After decades of power generating units increasing in size, there is currently a growing focus on distributed generation, power generation close to energy loads. Investments in large-scale units have been driven by economy of scale, but recent technological improvements on small generating plants have made it possible to exploit the benefits of local power generation to a larger extent than previously. Distributed generation can improve power system efficiency because heat can be recovered from thermal units to supply heat and thermally activated cooling, and because small-scale renewables have a promising end-user market. Further benefits of distributed generation include improved reliability, deferral of often controversial and costly grid investments and reduction of grid losses. The new appeal of small-scale power generation means that there is a need for new tools to analyze distributed generation, both from a system perspective and from the perspective of potential developers. In this thesis, the focus is on the value of power generation for end-users. The thesis identifies how an end-user can find optimal distributed generation systems and investment strategies under a variety of economic and regulatory scenarios. The final part of the thesis extends the analysis with a bottom-up model of how the economics of distributed generation for a representative set of building types can transfer to technology diffusion in a market.</p><p>Four separate research papers make up the thesis. In the first paper, Optimal Investment Strategies in Decentralized Renewable Power Generation under Uncertainty, a method for evaluation of investments in renewable power units under price uncertainty is presented. It is assumed the developer has a building with an electricity load and a renewable power resource. The case study compares a set of wind power systems with different capacity and finds that capacity depends on the electricity price and that there under uncertain prices can be a significant value in postponing investment until larger projects are profitable. In the second paper, Combined Heat and Power in Commercial Buildings: Investment and Risk Analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation program to find the value and risk characteristics of combined heat and power units is presented. Using historical price data to estimate price process parameters, it is shown that uncertain prices should not be a barrier for investment, since on-site generators can adapt to uncertain prices and reduce the total energy cost risks. In, Optimizing Distributed Generation Systems for Commercial Buildings, which uses a mixed integer linear program, distributed generation portfolios that maximize profitability are tailored to a building's energy load. Distributed generation with heat recovery and thermally activated cooling are found profitable in an office and a health care building, using current generator data and energy tariffs from California. With the fourth paper, Distributed Energy Resources Market Diffusion Model, the analysis is taken a step further to predict distributed generation market diffusion. Market penetration is assumed to depend on economic attractiveness and knowledge and trust in the technologies. A case study based on the U.S. commercial sector depicts a large market for reciprocating engines and microturbines, with the West and Northeast regions driving market diffusion. Technology research and outreach programs can speed up and change the path of capacity expansion.</p><p>The thesis presents three different models for analyzing investments in distributed generation, all of which have benefits and disadvantages. Choice of model depends on the specific application, but the different approaches can be used on the same problem to analyze it from different viewpoints. The cases in the thesis indicate that distributed generation can reduce expected energy costs while at the same time improve cost predictability. Further, the thesis identifies several important factors and potential barriers to distributed generation adoption. Analyzing distributed generation from the end-user perspective is important also for policy makers, because of the importance of estimating how the market will react to potential policy measures. The thesis shows that small-scale generating capacity has the potential to increase in the near future. Further research should increase the understanding of economic and environmental issues related to distributed generation, while policy makers should aim to construct and implement measures that make it attractive for end-users to invest in efficient local generating capacity.</p>

After decades of power generating units increasing in size, there is currently a growing focus on distributed generation, power generation close to energy loads. Investments in large-scale units have been driven by economy of scale, but recent technological improvements on small generating plants have made it possible to exploit the benefits of local power generation to a larger extent than previously. Distributed generation can improve power system efficiency because heat can be recovered from thermal units to supply heat and thermally activated cooling, and because small-scale renewables have a promising end-user market. Further benefits of distributed generation include improved reliability, deferral of often controversial and costly grid investments and reduction of grid losses. The new appeal of small-scale power generation means that there is a need for new tools to analyze distributed generation, both from a system perspective and from the perspective of potential developers. In this thesis, the focus is on the value of power generation for end-users. The thesis identifies how an end-user can find optimal distributed generation systems and investment strategies under a variety of economic and regulatory scenarios. The final part of the thesis extends the analysis with a bottom-up model of how the economics of distributed generation for a representative set of building types can transfer to technology diffusion in a market. Four separate research papers make up the thesis. In the first paper, Optimal Investment Strategies in Decentralized Renewable Power Generation under Uncertainty, a method for evaluation of investments in renewable power units under price uncertainty is presented. It is assumed the developer has a building with an electricity load and a renewable power resource. The case study compares a set of wind power systems with different capacity and finds that capacity depends on the electricity price and that there under uncertain prices can be a significant value in postponing investment until larger projects are profitable. In the second paper, Combined Heat and Power in Commercial Buildings: Investment and Risk Analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation program to find the value and risk characteristics of combined heat and power units is presented. Using historical price data to estimate price process parameters, it is shown that uncertain prices should not be a barrier for investment, since on-site generators can adapt to uncertain prices and reduce the total energy cost risks. In, Optimizing Distributed Generation Systems for Commercial Buildings, which uses a mixed integer linear program, distributed generation portfolios that maximize profitability are tailored to a building's energy load. Distributed generation with heat recovery and thermally activated cooling are found profitable in an office and a health care building, using current generator data and energy tariffs from California. With the fourth paper, Distributed Energy Resources Market Diffusion Model, the analysis is taken a step further to predict distributed generation market diffusion. Market penetration is assumed to depend on economic attractiveness and knowledge and trust in the technologies. A case study based on the U.S. commercial sector depicts a large market for reciprocating engines and microturbines, with the West and Northeast regions driving market diffusion. Technology research and outreach programs can speed up and change the path of capacity expansion. The thesis presents three different models for analyzing investments in distributed generation, all of which have benefits and disadvantages. Choice of model depends on the specific application, but the different approaches can be used on the same problem to analyze it from different viewpoints. The cases in the thesis indicate that distributed generation can reduce expected energy costs while at the same time improve cost predictability. Further, the thesis identifies several important factors and potential barriers to distributed generation adoption. Analyzing distributed generation from the end-user perspective is important also for policy makers, because of the importance of estimating how the market will react to potential policy measures. The thesis shows that small-scale generating capacity has the potential to increase in the near future. Further research should increase the understanding of economic and environmental issues related to distributed generation, while policy makers should aim to construct and implement measures that make it attractive for end-users to invest in efficient local generating capacity.

The owners of a house in today’s society do not know in real-time how much electricity they use. It could be beneficial for any residential consumer to have more control and overview in real-time over the electricity consumption. This could be done possible with a system that monitors the consumptions, micro renewables and the electricity prices from the grid and then makes a decision to either use or sell electricity to reduce the monthly electricity cost for the household and living a "Greener" life to reduce carbon emissions. In this thesis, estimations are made based on artificial neural network (ANN). The predictions are made for air temperature, solar insolation and wind speed in order to know how much energy will be produced in the next 24 hours from the solar panel and from the wind turbine. The predictions are made for electricity consumption in order to know how much energy the house will consume. These predictions are then used as an input to the system. The system has 3 controls, one to control the amount of sell or buy the energy, one to control the amount of energy to charge or discharge the fixed battery and one to control the amount of energy to charge or discharge the electric vehicle (EV). The output from the system will be the decision for the next 10 minutes for each of the 3 controls. To study the reliability of the ANN estimations, the ANN estimations (SANN) are compared with the real data (Sreal ) and other estimation based on the mean values (Smean) of the previous week. The simulation during a day in January gave that the expenses are 0.6285 € if using SANN, 0.7788 € if using Smean and 0.5974 € if using Sreal. Further, 3 different cases are considered to calculate the savings based on the ANN estimations. The first case is to have the system connected with fixed storage device and EV (Scon;batt ). The second and third cases are to have the system disconnected (without fixed battery) using micro generation (Sdiscon;micro) and not using micro generation (Sdiscon) along with the EV. The savings are calculated as a difference between Scon;batt and Sdiscon, also between Sdiscon;micro and Sdiscon. The saving are 788.68 € during a year if Scon;batt is used and 593.90 € during a year if Sdiscon;micro is used. With the calculated savings and the cost for the equipment, the pay-back period is 15.3 years for Scon;batt and 4.5 years for Sdiscon;micro. It is profitable to only use micro generation, but then the owner of the household loses the opportunity to be part of helping the society to become "Greener".

This study broadly investigates South African energy policy with specific emphasis on the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). It investigates how the procurement programme links to rights-based climate justice principles. Climate justice principles have the potential to greatly impact the socio-economic development characteristics of the renewable energy sector. These principles incorporate the notions of participation and self-representation, equality, and the anti-commodification of nature, thus linking to the collective ownership aspect of renewable energy plants. Depending on the procurement model chosen, renewable energy has the potential to offer true broad-based empowerment and developmental benefits to the country. A neo-Gramscian theoretical framework was selected in order to draw links between the renewable energy sector and the political economy which are so entrenched in the Minerals- Energy Complex (MEC). The neo-Gramscian framework demonstrates strength in the uncovering of the shift in the social relations of production and how these interact with the state and the international class project. It is utilised to expose the character of power and hegemony and how the needs of transnational capital are satisfied within local perceptions of development. This research revealed that the renewable energy sector has been annexed by the transnational neoliberal agenda through the non-participative nature of the REIPPPP. To challenge this power relation, the neo-Gramscian notion of a counter-hegemony is particularly pertinent. Community renewables, the focus of this research, are presented as such a counterhegemonic alternative. A number of European countries have successfully integrated community owned renewable energy plants into their energy sectors. Various case studies of community renewables in Denmark, Sweden and the UK respectively are proposed as alternative ownership models to those being promoted in the REIPPPP in South Africa. Barriers to community renewables in the South African context have been identified. These identified barriers allow one to make informed predictions about the future ownership of the renewable energy sector in South Africa. Recommendations are suggested that would work towards promoting a more inclusive and participatory renewable energy sector with greater adherence to climate justice principles. / M. Development and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

This study broadly investigates South African energy policy with specific emphasis on the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). It investigates how the procurement programme links to rights-based climate justice principles. Climate justice principles have the potential to greatly impact the socio-economic development characteristics of the renewable energy sector. These principles incorporate the notions of participation and self-representation, equality, and the anti-commodification of nature, thus linking to the collective ownership aspect of renewable energy plants. Depending on the procurement model chosen, renewable energy has the potential to offer true broad-based empowerment and developmental benefits to the country. A neo-Gramscian theoretical framework was selected in order to draw links between the renewable energy sector and the political economy which are so entrenched in the Minerals- Energy Complex (MEC). The neo-Gramscian framework demonstrates strength in the uncovering of the shift in the social relations of production and how these interact with the state and the international class project. It is utilised to expose the character of power and hegemony and how the needs of transnational capital are satisfied within local perceptions of development. This research revealed that the renewable energy sector has been annexed by the transnational neoliberal agenda through the non-participative nature of the REIPPPP. To challenge this power relation, the neo-Gramscian notion of a counter-hegemony is particularly pertinent. Community renewables, the focus of this research, are presented as such a counterhegemonic alternative. A number of European countries have successfully integrated community owned renewable energy plants into their energy sectors. Various case studies of community renewables in Denmark, Sweden and the UK respectively are proposed as alternative ownership models to those being promoted in the REIPPPP in South Africa. Barriers to community renewables in the South African context have been identified. These identified barriers allow one to make informed predictions about the future ownership of the renewable energy sector in South Africa. Recommendations are suggested that would work towards promoting a more inclusive and participatory renewable energy sector with greater adherence to climate justice principles. / M. Development and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013