>Magister Scientiae - MSc / In this thesis, we investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in a population which experiences a significant flow of immigrants. We derive and analyse a math- ematical model that describes the dynamics of HIV infection among the im- migrant youths and intervention that can minimize or prevent the spread of the disease in the population. In particular, we are interested in the effects of public-health education and of parental care.We consider existing models of public-health education in HIV/AIDS epidemi-ology, and provide some new insights on these. In this regard we focus atten-tion on the papers [b] and [c], expanding those researches by adding sensitivity analysis and optimal control problems with their solutions.Our main emphasis will be on the effect of parental care on HIV/AIDS epidemi-ology. In this regard we introduce a new model. Firstly, we analyse the model without parental care and investigate its stability and sensitivity behaviour.We conduct both qualitative and quantitative analyses. It is observed that in the absence of infected youths, disease-free equilibrium is achievable and is asymptotically stable. Further, we use optimal control methods to determine the necessary conditions for the optimality of intervention, and for disease eradication or control. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to check the effects of screening control and parental care on the spread of HIV/AIDS, we observe that parental care is more effective than screening control. However, the most efficient control strategy is in fact a combination of parental care and screening control. The results form the central theme of this thesis, and are included in the manuscript [a] which is now being reviewed for publication. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results.

Estuda-se o espalhamento de doenças contagiosas utilizando modelos suscetível-infectado-recuperado (SIR) representados por equações diferenciais ordinárias (EDOs) e por autômatos celulares probabilistas (ACPs) conectados por redes aleatórias. Cada indivíduo (célula) do reticulado do ACP sofre a influência de outros, sendo que a probabilidade de ocorrer interação com os mais próximos é maior. Efetuam-se simulações para investigar como a propagação da doença é afetada pela topologia de acoplamento da população. Comparam-se os resultados numéricos obtidos com o modelo baseado em ACPs aleatoriamente conectados com os resultados obtidos com o modelo descrito por EDOs. Conclui-se que considerar a estrutura topológica da população pode dificultar a caracterização da doença, a partir da observação da evolução temporal do número de infectados. Conclui-se também que isolar alguns infectados causa o mesmo efeito do que isolar muitos suscetíveis. Além disso, analisa-se uma estratégia de vacinação com base em teoria dos jogos. Nesse jogo, o governo tenta minimizar os gastos para controlar a epidemia. Como resultado, o governo realiza campanhas quase-periódicas de vacinação. / The spreading of contagious diseases is studied by using susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models represented by ordinary differential equations (ODE) and by probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) connected by random networks. Each individual (cell) of the PCA lattice experiences the influence of others, where the probability of occurring interaction with the nearest ones is higher. Simulations for investigating how the disease propagation is affected by the coupling topology of the population are performed. The numerical results obtained with the model based on randomly connected PCA are compared to the results obtained with the model described by ODE. It is concluded that considering the topological structure of the population can pose difficulties for characterizing the disease, from the observation of the time evolution of the number of infected individuals. It is also concluded that isolating a few infected subjects can cause the same effect than isolating many susceptible individuals. Furthermore, a vaccination strategy based on game theory is analyzed. In this game, the government tries to minimize the expenses for controlling the epidemic. As consequence, the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.

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Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / Tuberculosis is a bacterial infection which is a major cause of death worldwide. TB is a curable disease, however the bacterium can become resistant to the first line treatment against the disease. This leads to a disease called drug resistant TB that is difficult and expensive to treat. It is well-known that TB disease thrives in communities in overcrowded environments with poor ventilation, weak nutrition, inadequate or inaccessible medical care, etc, such as in some prisons or some refugee camps. In particular, the World Health Organization discovered that a number of prisoners come from socio-economic disadvantaged population where the burden of TB disease may be already high and access to medical care may be limited. In this dissertation we propose compartmental models of systems of differential equations to describe the population dynamics of TB disease under conditions of crowding. Such models can be used to make quantitative projections of TB prevalence and to measure the effect of interventions. Indeed we apply these models to specific regions and for specific purposes. The models are more widely applicable, however in this dissertation we calibrate and apply the models to prison populations.