I collect data on subjects' information acquisition during real and hypothetical risky choices using process-tracing software called Mouselab. I also measure subjects' cognitive ability using the cognitive reflective test (CRT). On average, measured risk preferences are not significantly different across real and hypothetical settings. However, cognitive ability is inversely related to risk aversion when choices are hypothetical, but it is unrelated when the choices are real. This interaction between cognitive ability and hypothetical setting is consistent with the notion that some individuals, specifically higher-ability individuals, treat hypothetical choices as "puzzles" and may help explain why some studies find that subjects indicate that they are more tolerant of risk when they make hypothetical choices than when they make real choices. On average, subjects demonstrate a similar degree of consistency across settings, and there are also no significant differences across settings in the amount of time subjects take to make a choice, the amount of information they acquire, or how they distribute their attention. I also find evidence to suggest that subjects acquire information in a manner consistent with the implicit calculation of expected utility. Specifically, individuals do not merely make choices "as if" they are integrating probabilities and outcomes, it appears that they actually are. Moreover, as they progress through a series of choices in a commonly used risk preference elicitation method, their information acquisition becomes progressively more consistent with integration models. Finally, on average, individuals appear to acquire information in real and hypothetical settings in similar ways.

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Women, on average, are found in systematically different careers than men. The reason for this phenomenon is not fully understood, in part because expectations play a vital role in the process of career choice. Different religious groups have different beliefs on the importance of child bearing, so fertility expectations should differ by religious group. I include a woman's religious denomination in regressions on mea- sures of occupational flexibility. Jehovah's Witnesses choose the most flexible careers followed by Pentecostal, Catholic, Baptist, and Mainline Protestant women. Jewish women generally choose the least flexible careers. This is consistent with the human capital notion that women are choosing different careers than men rather than being forced into different job paths. If women are choosing jobs that allow them to take responsibility for home pro- duction, how does this affect their husbands? Male wage regressions that include marital status dummy variables find a marriage wage premium of 10 to 40%. This premium may occur because wives are taking responsibility for home production and husbands are free to focus their attention on productivity at work. It may also be that factors unobserved to the researcher may make a man more productive and more likely to marry. I use religious denomination as a proxy for specialization within the home. Men in more traditional religious denominations enjoy a higher marriage wage premium, which is evidence that household specialization of labor is an important cause of the wage premium. The choice of a career, whether to marry, and most other important life decisions are dependent on one's risk tolerance. The role of risk preferences in such choices is not fully understood, largely because relative risk aversion (y) is hard to empirically quantify. Chetty (2006) derives a formula for ° based on the link between utility and labor supply decisions. I estimate y at the micro level using the 1996 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. I compare y to an estimate based on hypothetical gambles and find the measures substantially different. This supports Chetty's claim that ex- pected utility theory cannot suffciently explain choices under uncertainty in different domains.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) could have a significant impact on the U.S. agriculture industry and the welfare of U.S. producers and U.S. consumers. In order to address the potential impact from animal disease outbreaks, this project is designed to utilize a combined epidemic and economic modeling framework to evaluate animal disease management strategies which can be used to reduce the potential losses in an unusual event such as FMD outbreaks. In this study, we compare the welfare changes among three different parties with different strategies using, 1) ANOVA analysis; 2) cost benefit analysis; and 3) Risk Aversion Coefficient (RAC) analysis. Four types of index feedlots are selected in the study including, Feedlot Type 1 (> 50,000 heads of animals), Feedlot Type 4 (backgrounder feedlot), Large Beef Grazing (>100 heads of animals), and Backyard (<10 heads of animals). Results suggest that early detection of FMD events has the advantage in reducing risk as shown in the epidemiological impacts. Enhanced surveillance is found to be a preferred mitigation strategy for U.S. consumers in the scenario of smaller feedlot disease introductions (e.g. Large Beef Grazing and Backyard) and for U.S. producers in the larger feedlot disease introduction scenarios (e.g. Feedlot Type 1 and Feedlot Type 4). Adequate vaccination is not cost effective when seeking to minimize average loss but becomes a preferred strategy when the risk aversion rises. Risk modeling with stochastic programming adopted in this study also confirms the importance of incorporating risk evaluation into decision making process. It offers another option for us to evaluate the mitigation strategies. Two portfolio models are adopted in this study including, E-V model (mean variance portfolio choice model) and Unified model. The results show that the preference for control strategies depends on risk attitude. Early detection proves to be preferable for U.S. consumers and is also preferred by U.S. processors and producers as Risk Aversion Parameters (RAP) rises. Adequate vaccination strategy can benefit U.S. consumers but does not give U.S. processors a better outcome. Adequate vaccination provides a better choice for U.S. producers when the RAP rises. Enhanced surveillance is preferred for U.S. consumers. For U.S. processors, enhanced surveillance does not give a better risk/return outcome. U.S. producers are likely to switch their preferences from regular surveillance to enhanced surveillance as their RAP rises.

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This thesis examines the use of precision agriculture data, specifically yield maps, for makingsite-specific economic decisions for improved farm management. The adoption of precisionagriculture on farms has allowed producers to collect a greater quantity and more specificinformation about production than ever before. With such information, site-specific decisions canbe made. Incorporating economic data with yield map data, two primary decision examples aredeveloped: defining areas of production and nonproduction and managing temporal risk spatiallyacross a field. Included with the production/ nonproduction decision are the effects that landtenure arrangements and risk aversion levels have on the decision. The risk maps are developedusing break-even analysis, the coefficient of variation, and a mean-variance framework, all based ona twenty year average of temporal net returns, measured spatially. The risk maps are repeatedincorporating a crop insurance option, a commonly used risk management tool. Results show thatdeveloping these maps can be used by agricultural producers to help with their decision making. Byincorporating these maps into the decision-making process, decisions can be made to increase farmprofitability.

The aim of this bachelor thesis was to investigate how local farmers of sunflower and local processors of sunflower oil in Babati, Tanzania perceive constraints and possibilities to value chain upgrading by conducting a case study. Open-ended interviews were conducted during a period of eight weeks with local sunflower farmers, local sunflower processors and other actors with knowledge of the sunflower value chain. The results from the study show that the main constraints perceived by farmers were lack of capital and incentive to buy new seeds, lack of knowledge of how to re-plant old seeds, their lack of bargaining position and market knowledge which together put restrains on their market access. The main constraints, perceived by local processors, were lack of access to credit, lack of market access with regard to sunflower cakes, a bi-product of sunflower oil production, and a shortage of sunflower seeds on the local market. With regard to the shortage of seeds produced in the area this was discussed further with the respondents as it seems to be connected with actors need for diversification as a form of risk aversion. The main upgrading options as perceived by farmers were value addition by also processing and selling the sunflower oil and different forms of horizontal integration. The main upgrading option perceived by local processors of sunflower oil was an insourcing of the labelling and packaging of sunflower oil which would create access to higher value markets.

abstract: Delay discounting is the decline in the present value of a reward with delay to its receipt. (Mazur,1987). The delay discounting task is used to measure delay discounting rate, which requires the participants to choose between two options: one involves immediate delivery of a reward, and other involves delivery after a delay, and the immediate rewards are adjusted in value until the subject feels there is no difference between the immediate and the delayed reward. Some previous studies (Robles and Vargas, 2007; 2008; Robles et al., 2009) found that the order of presentation of the immediate rewards (ascending or descending) significantly influenced the estimated delay discounting rate, which is known as the order effect. Uncertainty about the future and impulsivity could explain delay discounting behavior. The purpose of this study was to explore the order effect in delay discounting assessment. The current study found that the order effect in the delay discounting task can be explained by risk aversion, loss aversion and impulsivity. In the current study, the two kinds of fixed procedure (ascending and descending), and the titrating delay discounting task were used to estimate the degree of delay discounting. Also, two gambling tasks were applied to measure risk and loss aversion indices. The BIS-11 scale was used to assess the level of trait impulsivity. The results indicated that impulsivity biases individuals to choose the immediate small reward rather than the large delayed reward, resulting in lower area under the discounting curve (AUC) when estimated with the ascending-sequence delay discounting task. Also, impulsivity moderated the relationship between loss aversion and AUC estimated with the descending-sequence delay discounting task. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Psychology 2018

In Canada, bail supervision programs were developed, in partnership with community-based organizations, to promote bail compliance and provide supervision to accused persons who would otherwise have been detained in remand custody. While many of these programs use traditional risk assessment tools to guide supervision, limited research has been conducted on their effectiveness in the bail supervision context. Adopting a quantitative as well as qualitative methodology, this study uses a representative sample of 100 supervision clients from one Ontario bail program to examine the validity of its risk tool – Service Planning Instrument™ (SPIn) Pre-Screen – as well as demographic and criminal justice factors, in predicting bail supervision outcomes. Analyses suggest that SPIn lacks predictive validity in the bail supervision setting. These findings are discussed within the broader context of net widening, as well as the greater bail/remand crisis and the culture of risk aversion that pervades the Canadian criminal justice system.