The present study focused on evaluating some crash prediction models for two lane highways on Brazilian conditions. Also, the transferability of models was considered, specifically by means of a comparison between Brazil, HSM and Florida. The analysis of two lane highways crash prediction models was promising when the road characteristics were well known and there was not much difference from base conditions. This conclusion was attained regarding the comparison of results for all segments, non-curved segments and curved segments, confirming that a transferred model can be used with caution. In addition, two novel models for Brazilian two-lane highways segments were estimated. The model developed showed better results for non-curved segments in the calibration/validation sample. Thus, for a general analysis purpose of non-curved segments this model is recommended. Finally, there are many factors that could not be measured by these models and reflects road safety various condition. Even so, the study of crash predict models in Brazilian context could provide a better start point in safety road analysis. / O foco desta pesquisa foi avaliar a aplicação de alguns modelos de previsão de acidentes em rodovias de pista simples de três estados brasileiros. Ainda, a transferabilidade destes modelos foi abordada, especificamente por meio de uma comparação entre características do Brasil, Florida e aquelas recomendadas pelo Highway Safety Manual. O uso dos distintos modelos se mostrou promissor para situações nas quais as características da via se mantiveram semelhantes às condições para as quais os modelos foram desenvolvidos. A avaliação foi empreendida para todos os segmentos homogêneos, separados posteriormente segundo a existência de curvas horizontais. Adicionalmente, dois novos modelos foram equacionados para a amostra brasileira. O modelo de previsão de acidentes desenvolvido apresentou melhores medidas de desempenho para segmentos sem curvas horizontais, sendo recomendável para previsão de acidentes em análises preliminares. Por fim, foi constatado que outros fatores não contemplados pelos modelos podem ter impactado as condições de segurança dos locais estudados. Ainda assim, essa pesquisa representa no contexto do Brasil um ponto de partida em análises relacionadas à segurança de rodovias de pista simples.

Disturbances in the supply of electric power can have serious implications for everyday life as well as for national (homeland) security. A power outage can be initiated by natural disasters, adverse weather, technical failures, human errors, sabotage, terrorism, and acts of war. The vulnerability of a system is described as a sensitivity to threats and hazards, and is measured by P (Q(t) > q), i.e. the probability of at least one disturbance with negative societal consequences Q larger than some critical value q, during a given period of time (0,t]. The aim of the thesis is to present methods for quantitative vulnerability analysis of electric power delivery networks to enable effective strategies for prevention, mitigation, response, and recovery to be developed. Paper I provides a framework for vulnerability assessment of infrastructure systems. The paper discusses concepts and perspectives for developing a methodology for vulnerability analysis, and gives examples related to power systems. Paper II analyzes the vulnerability of power delivery systems by means of statistical analysis of Swedish disturbance data. It is demonstrated that the size of large disturbances follows a power law, and that the occurrence of disturbances can be modeled as a Poisson process. Paper III models electric power delivery systems as graphs. Statistical measures for characterizing the structure of two empirical transmission systems are calculated, and a structural vulnerability analysis is performed, i.e. a study of the connectivity of the graph when vertices and edges are disabled. Paper IV discusses the origin of power laws in complex systems in terms of their structure and the dynamics of disturbance propagation. A branching process is used to model the structure of a power distribution system, and it is shown that the disturbance size in this analytical network model follows a power law. Paper V shows how the interaction between an antagonist and the defender of a power system can be modeled as a game. A numerical example is presented, and it is studied if there exists a dominant defense strategy, and if there is an optimal allocation of resources between protection of components, and recovery. / QC 20100831

This thesis theoretically and experimentally investigates different aspects of the application of CO2 in supermarket refrigeration. Theoretical analysis has been performed using computer simulation models developed to simulate CO2 indirect, NH3/CO2 cascade, CO2 trans-critical and direct expansion (DX) R404A systems. The models supported the selection of the CO2 system solutions to be tested experimentally and facilitated the design of NH3/CO2 cascade and trans-critical systems test rigs. Performance evaluation and systems’ optimizations have also been carried out. In order to verify the findings of the theoretical analysis an experimental evaluation has been performed whereby a scaled-down medium size supermarket has been built in a laboratory environment. NH3/CO2 cascade and trans-critical systems have been tested and compared to a conventional R404A system installed in the same laboratory environment. Experimental findings have been compared to the computer simulation models. In supermarket refrigeration applications, safety is a major concern because of the large number of people that might be affected in the event of leakage. Therefore, a computer simulation model has been developed to perform calculations of the resulting concentration levels arising from different scenarios for leakage accidents in the supermarket. The model has been used to validate some of the risks associated with using CO2 in the application of supermarket refrigeration. Results of the experiments and the computer simulation models showed good agreement and suggest that the NH3/CO2 cascade system is a more efficient solution than the analyzed conventional ones for supermarket refrigeration. On the other hand, CO2 trans-critical solutions have efficiencies comparable to the conventional systems analyzed, with potential for improvements in the trans-critical systems. From a safety point of view, the analysis of the calculations’ results clearly shows that using CO2 in supermarket refrigeration does not create exceptional health risks for customers and workers in the shopping area. Studies conducted in this thesis prove that the CO2 systems investigated are efficient solutions for supermarket refrigeration. / QC 20100909

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:35:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:57:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:56:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Probabilistic methods have been widely used in structural engineering to model uncertainties in loads and structural properties. The subjects of structural reliability analysis, random vibrations, and structural system identification have been extensively developed and provide the basic framework for developing rational design and maintenance procedures for engineering structures. One of the crucial requirements for successful application of probabilistic methods in these contexts is that one must have access to adequate amount of empirical data to form acceptable probabilistic models for the uncertain variables. When this requirement is not met, it becomes necessary to explore alternative methods for uncertainty modeling. Such efforts have indeed been made in structural engineering, albeit to a much lesser extent as compared to efforts expended in developing probabilistic methods. The alternative frameworks for uncertainty modeling include methods based on the use of interval analysis, convex function representations, theory of fuzzy variables, polymorphic models for uncertainties, and hybrid models which combine two or more of alternative modeling frameworks within the context of a given problem. The work reported in this thesis lies in the broad area of research of modeling uncertainties using non-probabilistic and combined non-probabilistic and probabilistic methods. The thesis document is organized into 5 chapters and 6 annexures. A brief overview of alternative frameworks for uncertainty modeling and their mathematical basis are provided in chapter 1. This includes discussion on modeling of uncertainties using intervals and issues related to uncertainty propagation using interval algebra; details of convex function models and relevance of optimization tools in characterizing uncertainty propagation; discussion on fuzzy variables and their relation to intervals and convex functions; and, issues arising out of treating uncertainties using combined probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. The notion of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties is also introduced and a brief mention of polymorphic models for uncertainty, which aim to accommodate alternative forms of uncertainty within a single mathematical model, is made. A review of literature pertaining to applications of non-probabilistic and combined probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods for uncertainty modeling in structural engineering applications is presented in chapter 2. The topics covered include: (a) solutions of simultaneous algebraic equations, eigenvalue problems, ordinary differential equations, and the extension of finite element models to include non-probabilistic uncertainties, (b) issues related to methods for arriving at uncertainty models based on empirical data, and (c) applications to problems of structural safety and structural optimization. The review identifies scope for further research into the following aspects: (a) development of methods for arriving at optimal convex function models for uncertain variables based on limited data and embedding the models thus developed into problems of structural safety assessment, and (b) treatment of inverse problems arising in structural safety based design and optimization which takes into account possible use of combined probabilistic and non-probabilistic modeling frameworks. Chapter 3 considers situations when adequate empirical data on uncertain variables is lacking thereby necessitating the use of non-probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainties. The study discusses such situations in the context of structural safety assessment. The problem of developing convex function and fuzzy set models for uncertain variables based on limited data and subsequent application in structural safety assessment is considered. Strategies to develop convex set models for limited data based on super-ellipsoids with minimum volume and Nataf’s transformation based method are proposed. These models are shown to be fairly general (for instance, approximations to interval based models emerge as special cases). Furthermore, the proposed convex functions are mapped to a unit multi-dimensional sphere. This enables the evaluation of a unified measure of safety, defined as the shortest distance from the origin to the limit surface in the transformed standard space, akin to the notion used in defining the Hasofer- Lind reliability index. Also discussed are issues related to safety assessment when mixed uncertainty modeling approach is used. Illustrative examples include safety assessment of an inelastic frame with uncertain properties. The study reported in chapter 4 considers a few inverse problems of structural safety analysis aimed at the determination of system parameters to ensure a target level of safety and (or) to minimize a cost function for problems involving combined probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainty modeling. Development of load and resistance factor design format, in problems with combined uncertainty models, is also presented. We employ super-ellipsoid based convex function/fuzzy variable models for representing non-probabilistic uncertainties. The target safety levels are taken to be specified in terms of indices defined in standard space of uncertain variables involving standard normal random variables and (or) unit hyper-spheres. A class of problems amenable for exact solutions is identified and a general procedure for dealing with more general problems involving nonlinear performance functions is developed. Illustrations include studies on inelastic frame with uncertain properties. A summary of contributions made in the thesis, along with a few suggestions for future research, are presented in chapter 5. Annexure A-F contain the details of derivation of alternative forms of safety measures, Newton Raphson’s based methods for optimization used in solutions to inverse problems, and details of combining Matlab based programs for uncertainty modeling with Abaqus based models for structural analysis.

O presente estudo foi realizado para verificar a possibilidade de redução do núcleo do reator IEA-R1 do IPEN/CNEN-SP. Cálculos neutrônicos foram desenvolvidos para um conjunto de novas configurações para que, a posteriori, a análise termo-hidráulica e de segurança pudessem ser realizadas. As novas configurações analisadas são menores por diversos motivos, como obter uma melhor utilização do combustível, melhor distribuição dos fluxos de nêutrons, dentre outros. Para que se possa atingir tais configurações, a densidade de Urânio no combustível deve ser aumentada. Neste estudo, combustíveis de U3Si2-Al com 4,8gU/cm3 foram testados e novos núcleos para o reator IEA-R1 foram propostos e discutidos. A análise neutrônica não impõe restrições aos núcleos estudados. A análise termohidráulica mostrou que as margens de segurança e os perfis de temperatura ao longo das placas combustíveis não excedem os limites de projeto. Os coeficientes de temperatura obtidos para os novos núcleos, no caso isotérmico, são todos negativos, conforme desejado. A queima mostrou que núcleos supercompactos não apresentam excesso de reatividade suficiente para o funcionamento dos mesmo, ao se utilizar combustíveis com 4,8gU/cm3. Um APR (Acidente de Perda de Refrigerante) foi simulado para os núcleos remanescentes. A ruptura da fronteira do primário se mostrou o acidente mais crítico, devido ao curto tempo para o esvaziamento completo da piscina do reator. As temperaturas atingidas após o descobrimento foram calculadas e não excedem aquelas cujos valores propiciam empolamento nas placas combustíveis (475 °! a 550 °!), uma vez que se obedeça os tempos de esvaziamento seguro da piscina para as novas configurações. / This study was performed considering prospective candidates for the IPEN/CNEN-SP IEA-R1 research reactor core. Some neutronic calculations were developed for a set of new core configurations to push forward the thermal-hydraulic and safety analysis. The new core configurations will be smaller for several reasons (e.g., better fuel utilization, neutron fluxes and so on). To achieve such smaller arrangements, the U-fuel density has to be increased. In the current study, configurations with 4.8gU/cm3 U3Si2- Al fuels were tested using the software MCNP and a set of new core configurations for the IPEN/CNEN-SP IEA-R1 research reactor has been presented and discussed. The Neutronic analysis imposes no restrictions on the new cores. The Thermal- Hydraulic (TH) analysis showed that the safety margins and the temperature profile through the fuel plate dont exceed the design limits. The isothermal temperature coefficients were calculated being all negative, as desired. The burnup concludes that super compact cores dont have enough excess reactivity to keep the reactor working with 4.8gU/cm3 U3Si2-Al fuels. A LOCA (Loss of Cooling Accident) was simulated for the remaining cores. The border rupture of the primary system was the most critical accident, due to the short time for the complete emptying of the reactor pool. The temperatures reached after this accident were calculated and dont exceed the fuel plates limits (475 °C - 550 °C), once the time for safe emptying are taken into account for the IEA-R1 pool.

The present study focused on evaluating some crash prediction models for two lane highways on Brazilian conditions. Also, the transferability of models was considered, specifically by means of a comparison between Brazil, HSM and Florida. The analysis of two lane highways crash prediction models was promising when the road characteristics were well known and there was not much difference from base conditions. This conclusion was attained regarding the comparison of results for all segments, non-curved segments and curved segments, confirming that a transferred model can be used with caution. In addition, two novel models for Brazilian two-lane highways segments were estimated. The model developed showed better results for non-curved segments in the calibration/validation sample. Thus, for a general analysis purpose of non-curved segments this model is recommended. Finally, there are many factors that could not be measured by these models and reflects road safety various condition. Even so, the study of crash predict models in Brazilian context could provide a better start point in safety road analysis. / O foco desta pesquisa foi avaliar a aplicação de alguns modelos de previsão de acidentes em rodovias de pista simples de três estados brasileiros. Ainda, a transferabilidade destes modelos foi abordada, especificamente por meio de uma comparação entre características do Brasil, Florida e aquelas recomendadas pelo Highway Safety Manual. O uso dos distintos modelos se mostrou promissor para situações nas quais as características da via se mantiveram semelhantes às condições para as quais os modelos foram desenvolvidos. A avaliação foi empreendida para todos os segmentos homogêneos, separados posteriormente segundo a existência de curvas horizontais. Adicionalmente, dois novos modelos foram equacionados para a amostra brasileira. O modelo de previsão de acidentes desenvolvido apresentou melhores medidas de desempenho para segmentos sem curvas horizontais, sendo recomendável para previsão de acidentes em análises preliminares. Por fim, foi constatado que outros fatores não contemplados pelos modelos podem ter impactado as condições de segurança dos locais estudados. Ainda assim, essa pesquisa representa no contexto do Brasil um ponto de partida em análises relacionadas à segurança de rodovias de pista simples.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:35:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:57:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / As fontes radioativas seladas em desuso, descartadas como rejeito radioativo, constituem uma parcela dos rejeitos radioativos que merece atenção especial, por sua atividade possuir potencial para causar doses de radiação elevadas, em indivíduos inadvertidamente expostos. Já é significativo o volume desses rejeitos. Manter essas fontes armazenadas em depósitos provisórios, indefinidamente, seria transferir o problema às futuras gerações. O presente estudo propõe o uso de indicadores de segurança complementares à dose e risco para o desenvolvimento de uma metodologia de avaliação da segurança de depósitos finais destinados à deposição de fontes radioativas seladas que demonstre que o isolamento será suficientemente seguro pelo tempo necessário para obter a licença da instalação, com custo acessível aos países em desenvolvimento. / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:56:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Neste trabalho é aplicada a metodologia da Análise Probabilística de Segurança nível 1 ao reator IEA-R1. Inicialmente são descritos os eventos iniciadores de acidentes identificados no reator para duas categorias: perda de vazão e perda de refrigerante primário. Dentre eles foram escolhidos dois eventos iniciadores para análise mais detalhada do acidente e obtenção da estimativa da freqüência de danos ao núcleo devido a sua ocorrência. Foram selecionados os seguintes eventos iniciadores: bloqueio de canal de refrigeração (maior probabilidade) e perda de refrigerante por grande ruptura da tubulação do circuito primário (maiores consequências). Para modelar a evolução do acidente a partir da ocorrência do evento iniciador e da atuação ou não dos sistemas de segurança utilizou-se Árvore de Eventos. Através de Árvore de Falhas, também foi avaliada a confiabilidade dos seguintes sistemas: sistema de desligamento do reator, isolamento da piscina, sistema de resfriamento de emergência (SRE) e sistema elétrico. Como resultados foram obtidas as estimativas das frequências de danos ao núcleo do reator e as probabilidades de falha dos sistemas analisados. As freqüências de danos ao núcleo mostraram-se dentro das margens esperadas, sendo da mesma ordem de grandeza que os encontrados para reatores similares. As confiabilidades dos sistemas de desligamento do reator, de isolamento da piscina e do SRE foram satisfatórias para as condições em que estes sistemas foram exigidos. Todavia, para o sistema elétrico seria recomendável uma análise para verificar a possibilidade de modernização a fim de aumentar a sua confiabilidade. / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP