Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which is induced by anthropogenic activities increasing the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. Sea level rise is already causing a severe impact on coastal wetland ecosystems, and the influence will intensify in the future. One of these coastal ecosystems is mangrove forests, which grow in intertidal zones and are therefore subject to tidal water level fluctuations. Mangrove forests provide essential ecosystem services to coastal environments and societies, and their exposure to sea level rise is a significant concern. The consequences of sea level rise, such as inundation, erosion, and lack of accommodation space, will increase the extent of mangrove loss. It is therefore essential to fully understand how sea level rise is influencing mangrove ecosystems in different geographical locations, and how likely they are to adapt and survive under different scenarios. This research used a systematic literature review to assess scientific articles from various regions, investigating the current knowledge regarding the impacts of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystems. The information was collected from 40 articles, which covered studies from five continents. The findings affirmed that the negative effects of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystems are recognized globally. It is well understood that, by the second half of the century, mangrove ecosystems will face severe issues if the highest IPCC emissions scenarios are reached. It is further well acknowledged that mangrove forests provide important ecosystem services, for example, by protecting the coastal areas under extreme weather events, benefiting natural resources sectors and recreation, and further delivering crucial climate change mitigation services by sequestering and storing blue carbon. It is therefore essential to recognize mangroves as an important ecosystem and treat them adequately. Mangrove ecosystems’ resilience under sea level rise was commonly found to be dependent on their hydro-geomorphological environment. Under sea level rise, one of the most significant factors contributing to mangroves’ survival and resilience was the availability of accommodation space, which they need to be able to migrate inland as the sea levels rise, along with their ability to adapt to changes in sediment elevation rates. To secure the needed accommodation space and to further help mangrove ecosystems grow and live under the sea level rise scenarios, adequate climate change adaptation strategies must be planned and adopted. These strategies include prioritizing high-priority areas for vegetation growth, estimating areal habitat suitability, strengthening the understanding of land use impacts on mangrove forests, and implementing hybrid solutions for coastal protection. Although the issue of sea level rise influencing mangrove ecosystems is well recognized globally, there was an observed lack of adequate research. Further research and improved understanding are needed to ensure that preparation for all emission scenarios, even for the worst ones, is possible and that climate change adaptation strategies will be well implemented.

This thesis examines the preservation challenges heritage cities face because of climate change, with Venice as a case study and references to Rhodes Town, Edinburgh Castle, and Old San Juan. Dominant literature and scholarship on Venice compete with one another, restricting opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration and dialogue in producing a more efficient preservation approach to the city. Through a study of the brief history of Venice, the materials, and past and present approaches to preservation, this research signifies the need to understand and preserve building materials. Following an analysis of the scholarship on Venice, this paper reveals the role of building materials in discourse on the city, as materials can bridge the gap among competing literature. Therefore, this thesis makes a key contribution to the understanding of urban history and preserving historic cities. In exploring preservation techniques and considering how the discourse can more effectively address the challenges of sea level rise of historic cities, this thesis argues the history of materials is key to a cohesive preservation approach for Venice's built heritage. The building materials are at the center of the preservation issue, and by serving as the core of dialogue and interdisciplinary collaboration, a more efficient approach to preserving the city's local and global heritage will occur. This thesis shows historic building materials can become central to Venice's preservation approach with increased vocal concerns about the building materials from restorers/conservators, non-governing residents, art historians, scientists, and global onlookers to Venice's local government, the Italian government, and international preservation bodies. In exploring preservation techniques and considering how the discourse can develop to address the challenges of sea level rise more effectively on historic cities, this thesis argues the history of materials is key to a cohesive preservation approach for Venice's built heritage. The building materials are at the center of the preservation issue, and by serving as the core of dialogue and interdisciplinary collaboration, a more efficient approach to preserving the city's local and global heritage will occur. This thesis shows historic building materials can become central to Venice's preservation approach with increased vocal concerns about the building materials from restorers/conservators, non-governing residents, art historians, scientists, and global on-lookers to Venice's local government, the Italian government, and international preservation bodies. / Master of Arts / This thesis examines the preservation challenges heritage cities face because of climate change, with Venice as a case study and references to Rhodes Town, Edinburgh Castle, and Old San Juan. Literature on Venice compete with one another, restricting opportunities for conversation on producing an efficient preservation approach to the city. Through a study of the brief history of Venice, the materials, and past and present approaches to preservation, this research signifies the need to understand and preserve the building materials. The role of building materials in discussions and debates on the city is necessary as materials can bridge the gap among competing literature. With building materials at the center of the preservation issue and the core of conversation among different disciplines, a more efficient approach to preserving the city's local and global heritage will occur.

The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands along the U.S. Atlantic Coast and is highly vulnerable to habitat change and predation. We have addressed these two threats by 1) developing and implementing a linked model system that predicts future change to piping plover habitat resulting from sea-level rise and beach management efforts by joining dynamic models of sea-level rise, shoreline change, island geomorphology and piping plover nest habitat suitability, and 2) quantifying occupancy and movement of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), a key shorebird predator at Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia. We constructed and tested a model that links changes in geomorphological characteristics to piping plover nesting habitat suitability. We then linked this model to larger scale shoreline change resulting from sea level rise and storms. Using this linked model to forecast future sea-level rise and beach management efforts, we found that modest sea-level rise rates (3 mm and 4.1 mm/yr; similar to current rates) may increase suitable piping plover nesting habitat area in 50-100 years and some beach management strategies (beach nourishment and artificial dune modifications) also influence habitat availability. Our development and implementation of this tool to predict change in piping plover habitat suitability provides a vital starting point for predicting how plover nesting habitat will change in a context of planned human modifications intended to address climate change-related threats. Our findings regarding red fox occupancy and movement complement the use of this model for planning future management actions by providing vital information on the effects of certain predator management activities and habitat use of a key mammalian predator, the red fox, for shorebirds along the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Overall, we found that 1) red fox occupancy was strongly tied to eastern cottontail (Sylvilagus floridanus) trap success, increasing sharply with increased eastern cottontail trap success, 2) red fox occupancy did not change in response to an intensive eradication program, and 3) red foxes in our study area generally moved little between camera stations spaced 300 m from each other, but may move large distances (> 6km) at times, likely to occupy new territory available after lethal control efforts. Our findings have important ramifications for the sustainability of long-term predator removal programs and our understanding of future habitat change on the red fox. For example how vegetation changes affect eastern cottontails, how resulting fluctuations in eastern cottontails affect red fox occupancy, and how consequential changes in red fox occupancy affect plover breeding productivity. Our predictive model combined with these predator findings will allow wildlife managers to better plan and implement effective management actions for piping plovers in response to the multiple stressors of SLR-induced habitat change and predation. / Ph. D.

This thesis introduces and analyses a unique approach which involved iteratively engaging with stakeholders to generate a film about sea-level rise at a heritage site. The project used fine-scale remote sensing techniques, including airborne and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), to produce spatially accurate and realistic 3D digital visualisations of projected sea level rise at Cotehele Quay, a site on the River Tamar in Cornwall which is owned and managed by the National Trust. Area residents and stakeholders were involved in a series of focus groups which provided guidance on the integration of the spatial models into a short film. This thesis makes an original contribution to knowledge about how non-scientific audiences understand and interpret visual realism and spatial accuracy when engaged with the process of developing such a tool. Ultimately, the thesis proposes a new kind of visual realism based on this knowledge, known as ‘participatory realism’. The main output of this research was a film, ‘Changing Tides at Cotehele Quay’, which is presently being used by the National Trust as part of their wider communication toolkit. In addition to reflecting on the production of the film, the thesis makes the argument that at present TLS is not being proactively used to engage wider audiences. The research explored how TLS and other spatial data can be used in settings which are more public-facing; the thesis analyses the results of this innovative practice and interrogates the way in which people interacted and responded in the course of their participation.

This thesis provides new insight concerning drivers behind differences in arthropod diversity and abundance in Baltic shore ecosystems and how the arthropod communities might be affected when the conditions in the Baltic Sea are altered due to climate change.  The focus has been on climate related changes that are unique for coastal ecosystems, especially sea level rise and changes in the inflow of marine nutrients. As sea levels rise, features in coastal landscapes will be altered, islands and habitats will be flooded and diminished, and structural connectivity within the island landscape will therefore change. This thesis shows that arthropod diversity within the two arthropod groups, spiders and beetles, increases with island size but also that diversity is positively influenced by a high number of islands in the surroundings. A changed distribution and occurrence of marine species, due to climate change or eutrophication, can also affect terrestrial organisms on the shore.  In the Baltic Sea the new conditions following climate change will decrease the prevalence of bladder-wrack and benefit filamentous algae. Algal deposits on shores reflect the marine species composition and a decreased prevalence of bladder-wrack in the Baltic Sea will also be visible on the shores.  This thesis shows that a lower proportion of bladder-wrack in the algal deposits will decrease the diversity and abundance of arthropods in these deposits. Changes in the marine environment may also affect the inflow of insects with aquatic life stages and terrestrial adult stages.  On Baltic shores, prey species with aquatic life stages, especially chironomids, constitute a large proportion of the diet of the terrestrial predatory group, wolf spiders. In freshwater system, the inflow of chironomids is known to decrease with elevated water temperatures if this is true in the Baltic Sea prey availability of wolf spiders would decrease.  This thesis supports the importance of chironomids as a prey for coastal wolf spiders, but also shows that the diet varies over season with dominance of terrestrial prey in early summer shifting to a dominance of marine prey in late summer and autumn. This seasonal variation is primarily due to a gradual increase in the consumption of chironomids over season. Climate change has the potential to alter the biogeographical conditions in coastal landscapes as well as the density and quality of marine nutrient inflow. Sea level rise will diminish and flood islands and this thesis shows that a moderate sea level rise of 0.5 meters would make the total number of islands in the outer part of Stockholm archipelago decrease with about 25 %. Sea level rise could thus have consequences for arthropod diversity in Baltic shore meadows in the near future. The combined effects of sea level rise and changed prevalence of marine species in the Baltic Sea will affect the abundance and diversity of arthropods substantially. The abundance and diversity of spiders and beetles will decrease on shores that today have a high occurrence of bladder-wrack and prey availability for coastal predators might decrease due to a decreased inflow of chironomids. Changes in the arthropod communities could have consequences also further up in the food chain, such as for shore birds feeding on these arthropods. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p>

The Northern Gulf of Mexico and coastal Louisiana are experiencing accelerated relative sea level rise rates; therefore, the region is ideal for modeling the global affects of sea level rise (SLR) on estuarine dynamics in a transgressive barrier island setting. The field methods and numerical modeling in this study show that as barrier islands are converted to inner shoals, tidal exchange increases between the estuary and coastal ocean. If marshes are unable to accrete at a pace comparable to SLR, wetlands will deteriorate and the tidal exchange and tidal prism will further increase. Secondary to hurricanes, winter storms are a primary driver in coastal morphology in this region, and this study shows that wind direction and magnitude, as well as atmospheric pressure change greatly affect estuarine exchange. Significant wetland loss and winter storm events produce changes in local and regional circulation patterns, thereby affecting the hydrodynamic exchange and resulting transport.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar os possíveis efeitos de um aumento do nível do mar no padrão de correntes no Sistema Estuarino de Santos (SP), através do uso do modelo hidrodinâmico do Delft3D-FLOW, considerando diferentes taxas de aumento de acordo com o quinto relatório do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5). Os resultados indicam alteração na velocidade da corrente ao longo do domínio implementado, mais evidente durante a sizígia. Observa-se um aumento da magnitude da corrente em praticamente todo o Canal de São Vicente e redução da magnitude nos canais do Porto de Santos, canal de Bertioga e na região interna do Estuário de Santos. Os resultados do modelo numérico foram comparados com diversos dados coletados na região de estudo e verificou-se a correta representação dos padrões de circulação da área. Este estudo comprovou a importância de utilizarmos resultados de um modelo de maior escala (HYCOM) como forçantes, através da condição de fronteira denominada Riemann, permitindo que o modelo represente fenômenos de baixa frequência, que geram circulações e variações do nível do mar com a mesma ordem de grandeza dos efeitos da maré astronômica na área de estudo. / This study aimed to analyze the possible effects of a sea level rise in Sistema Estuarino de Santos (SP) circulation pattern, through the use of Delft3D-FLOW Hydrodynamic Model considering different elevation rates according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth report (AR5). The results indicate change in the current\'s magnitude, being more evident during the spring tide. There is an increase in the velocity practically all over São Vicente Channel and the reduction of magnitude in the Porto de Santos and Bertioga channels and in the inner region of the estuary. The numerical model results were compared with several measured data and it was verified that the model correctly representats the circulation patterns of the area. This study proved the importance of using results of a larger scale model (HYCOM), forced through a boundary condition called Riemann, allowing the model to represent low frequency phenomena, which generate sea level variations with the same order of magnitude of the effects of the astronomical tide in the study area.

Nous traversons actuellement une crise de perte de la biodiversité sans précédant. La dégradation des sols et la perte d’habitat, la pollution, la surexploitation et les invasions biologiques contribuent à cette perte mondiale de biodiversité. Par ailleurs, le changement climatique et ses interactions avec les autres menaces, sont probablement l’un des défis majeurs des prochaines décennies pour la biodiversité. À l’heure actuelle, en raison de la multiplication des études et des approches employées, il est difficile d’avoir une vision synthétique des conséquences potentielles de ces changements sur la biodiversité. L’objectif principal de ce travail de thèse a été d’améliorer la caractérisation et la quantification des différents impacts des changements climatiques sur la biodiversité, à l’échelle mondiale par des approches de modélisations et de méta-analyses. Une première partie de mes travaux a ainsi porté sur les conséquences potentielles de la hausse du niveau des mers sur les hotspots insulaires, au cours de laquelle j’ai mis en évidence les conséquences majeures d’une telle hausse pour certains de ces hotspots. Je me suis ensuite intéressée à l’étude des effets conjugués des changements climatiques et des changements d’utilisation des sols sur les invasions biologiques à l’échelle mondiale. Cette partie a permis de mettre en évidence que les conséquences des changements climatiques et des changements d’utilisation des sols sur les espèces invasives dépendent de la région, du taxon et de l’espèce considérée. Ainsi, j’ai mis en évidence que certaines régions pourraient être moins favorables à la présence d’espèce invasives dans le futur. En outre, cette partie a également mis en évidence que les hotspots majoritairement composés d’îles étaient particulièrement favorables à la présence de ces espèces invasives. Finalement, dans une dernière partie, j’ai étudié les conséquences des menaces futures pour les hotspots de biodiversité dans une perspective de conservation. Cette partie a notamment permis d’établir des priorités de recherche et de conservation entre les hotspots de biodiversité en tenant compte des futures menaces qui pèsent sur la biodiversité à l’échelle des hotspots, mais également au sein même des hotspots de biodiversité. Cependant, la mise en œuvre de plans de gestion de sauvegarde d’habitats ou d’espèces ne pourra se faire qu’en intensifiant les collaborations avec l’ensemble des acteurs impliqués. Plus généralement, la mise en œuvre de stratégies d’atténuation et d’adaptation efficaces aux changements climatiques ne pourra pas avoir lieu sans un soutien du grand public. / Global biodiversity is changing at an unprecedented rate due to loss of habitat, biological invasions, pollution, overexploitation. Furthermore, climate changes and their synergies with other threats will probably become the main drivers of biodiversity loss in the next century. Nowadays, the multiplicity of approaches and the resulting variability in projections make it difficult to get a clear picture of the future of biodiversity due to climate change. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst- case scenarios leading to an increase of extinction rates. The aim of this thesis was to improve the knowledge about of the different consequences of climate change on biodiversity worldwide. To do that I mainly used modelisation and meta-analyses approaches. The first part of my work was to investigate the consequences of sea level rise for the ten insular biodiversity hotspot and their endemic species, during which I highlighted that between 6 and 19% of the islands would be entirely submerged. Then I studied the effects of climate and land use changes on biological invasions worldwide. The results showed that invasives species response to climate and land use changes depend on region, taxa and species considered. We also emphasized that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species. Besides, we also found that hotspot that are mainly islands or group of islands are highly suitable for invasive species. Finally, in the last part, I quantified the exposure of biodiversity hotspots to the combined effects of climate change, land use change and biological invasions. This work highlighted the pressing need to consider different drivers of global change in conservation planning. In addition, we established some prioritization framework among the hotspot. Finally, conservation strategies to protect habitat and species under global changes, can only be achieved through closed collaboration with park managers. Overall, implementation of effective adaptation strategies to climate change can only succeed with public support.

Throughout the Holocene, appreciable changes in bathymetry are hypothesized to have resulted in large changes to tidal datums in coastal and estuarine areas. An understanding of tidal change is an important contribution to the knowledge of relative historical sea-level change and future coastal planning. To test this hypothesis, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was used, with representative bathymetric grids based on glacial isostatic adjustment models and semi-empirical sea level rise predictions, in order to model the time-varying tidal behavior of the Delaware Bay. Model runs were conducted at various time slices between 10,000 years before present and 300 years into the future on high resolution grids that allowed for inundation moving forward in time. Open boundary tidal forcing was held constant in time to highlight the effect of the changing regional bathymetry. With each change in sea level, the shape of the Delaware Bay was considerably altered, leading to changes in the tides. Resonance and shallow water dissipation appeared to be the primary mechanisms behind these changes. Results showed that tidal ranges have nearly doubled in the upper Delaware Bay over the past 3000 years, while decreasing in the lower bay by 8%. Tidal range change represents a possible correction to past sea level rise estimates from the geologic record. Scenarios incorporating future sea level predictions primarily showed a small decrease in tidal range, potentially impacting future water levels and tidal sediment transport. Trends modeled were consistent with field measurements of relative change over similar time periods. / Graduation date: 2012

Climate change and anticipated impacts of sea level rise such as increased coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and salt water intrusion to freshwater resources will affect all the countries but mostly small island countries of oceans and low-lying lands along coastlines. Turkey having 8333 km of coastline including physically, ecologically and socio-economically important low-lying deltas should also prepare for the impacts of sea level rise as well as other impacts of climate change while participating in mitigation efforts. Thus, a coastal vulnerability assessment of Turkey to sea level rise is needed both as a part of coastal zone management policies for sustainable development and as a guideline for resource allocation for preparation of adaptation options for upcoming problems due to sea level rise. In this study, a coastal vulnerability matrix and a corresponding coastal vulnerability index &ndash / CVI (SLR) of a region to sea level rise using indicators of impacts of sea level rise which use commonly available data are developed. The results of the matrix and the index enable decision makers to compare and rank different regions according to their vulnerabilities to sea level rise, to prioritize impacts of sea level rise on the region according to the vulnerability of the region to each impact and to determine the most vulnerable parameters for planning of adaptation measures to sea level rise. The developed coastal vulnerability assessment model is used to determine the vulnerability of G&ouml / ksu Delta (Specially Protected Area), Mersin that has unique geological, ecological and socio-economical properties which are protected and recognized by both national and international communities.