This study focuses on how perceived security environment affect U.S. unilateral, military intervention in civil conflicts, using the concept of Bayesian learning to illustrate how threat perceptions are formed, how they change, and how they affect the U.S. decision to intervene militarily in civil conflicts. I assess the validity of two primary hypotheses: (1) the U.S. is more likely to intervene in civil conflicts with connections to a threatening actor or ideology; and (2) the U.S. is more likely to intervene in civil conflicts for humanitarian motives in a less threatening security context. To test these hypotheses, I compare U.S. military intervention in three temporal contexts reflecting more threatening security contexts (Cold War and post-9/11) and less threatening security contexts (1992-2001). Results of logit regression analysis reveal that a conflict’s connection to a threatening actor or ideology is the most statistically and substantively significant determinant of U.S. military intervention in civil conflicts, both in more and less threatening security contexts. They also indicate that humanitarian motives are not a statistically significant determinant of U.S. military intervention in civil conflicts, even in a more benign security environment. These findings imply that U.S. unilateral military intervention is reserved for more direct national security threats, even those that are less grave, and that the perception of the U.S. as “global cop” may be misleading, at least in terms of unilateral military intervention.

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Probabilistic forecasts represent a potentially indispensable tool for policy advising, strategic planning, or provision of possible scenarios of future development. It is clear, however, that inaccurate forecasts can entail serious consequences. At best, unsuccessful forecasting attempts may discredit such potentially valuable method in the eyes of decision-making elites. At worst, wrong predictions may lead to the misallocation of scarce resources or to the unnecessary securitization. Nonetheless, probabilistic forecasts have seldom been used in the realm of the Czech security analyses, studies, or debates. Thus, the European Values Think- Tank's research project is a pioneering attempt to utilize the probabilistic forecasting in the Czech politico-security sphere. Due to the fact that the think-tank developed its probabilistic forecasts to help the Czech security elite with strategic planning, the thesis aims to verify the accuracy and predictive capabilities of the European Values. The broader goal is to bring, by the accuracy assessment, the rigor into the Czech probabilistic-forecasting debate. Additionally, the thesis also compares the predictive capabilities of the European Values with the alternative - foreign - forecasts, as well as with other means of accuracy verification. The results...

Yes / Stark illustrations of the dangers from chemical weapons can be seen in attacks using toxic industrial chemicals and sarin against civilians and combatants in Syria and toxic industrial chemicals in Iraq, as well as more targeted assassination operations in Malaysia and the United Kingdom, employing VX and novichok nerve agents, respectively. Concerns about such malign applications of chemical technology are exacerbated by the unstable international security environment and the changing nature of armed conflict, “where borderlines between war, civil war, large-scale violations of human rights, revolutions and uprisings, insurgencies and terrorism as well as organized crime are blurred” (1). It is thus essential that the global community regularly review the nature and implications of developments in chemistry, and its convergence with the life and associated sciences, and establish appropriate measures to prevent their misuse. With the parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) convening a Review Conference to address such issues beginning 21 November 2018, we highlight important scientific aspects (2)

The 2002 National Security Strategy of the US (NSS 2002) appeared to have presented a momentous approach to self-defense. To many, the doctrine of preemptive selfdefense seemed to challenge the legal and political foundations of the post-World War II international order. Some saw in the US stated reliance on preemption a direct threat to the international system embodied in the UN Charter. The prima facie case that the US position was novel and even dangerous appeared persuasive. This thesis attempts to assess the exceptionality of NSS 2002 in its formulation and implications. This question of exceptionality is broadly divided into two sections. The first section deals with internal exceptionality, in terms of means (the deliberation and drafting processes) and ends (the US defense posture). The second section deals with external exceptionality in the broader terms of possible consequences outside the US. Section One begins by establishing the grounds for looking into the formulation of NSS 2002, and provides the background for that Strategy's mandated precursors. After exploring how National Security Strategy documents are conceived and framed, Section One discusses the Strategy as it was published, and examines a sampling of contemporaneous reactions to its publication. Section Two concentrates on the second part of the research question, and utilizes a thematic approach - in terms of the use of force, the international security environment, and international law. Possible consequences of the proposed US response to contemporary security challenges are considered in these three key areas.

The 2002 National Security Strategy of the US (NSS 2002) appeared to have presented a momentous approach to self-defense. To many, the doctrine of preemptive selfdefense seemed to challenge the legal and political foundations of the post-World War II international order. Some saw in the US stated reliance on preemption a direct threat to the international system embodied in the UN Charter. The prima facie case that the US position was novel and even dangerous appeared persuasive. This thesis attempts to assess the exceptionality of NSS 2002 in its formulation and implications. This question of exceptionality is broadly divided into two sections. The first section deals with internal exceptionality, in terms of means (the deliberation and drafting processes) and ends (the US defense posture). The second section deals with external exceptionality in the broader terms of possible consequences outside the US. Section One begins by establishing the grounds for looking into the formulation of NSS 2002, and provides the background for that Strategy's mandated precursors. After exploring how National Security Strategy documents are conceived and framed, Section One discusses the Strategy as it was published, and examines a sampling of contemporaneous reactions to its publication. Section Two concentrates on the second part of the research question, and utilizes a thematic approach ¿ in terms of the use of force, the international security environment, and international law. Possible consequences of the proposed US response to contemporary security challenges are considered in these three key areas.

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / Trying to adapt to the post-9/11 challenges to Euro-Atlantic security, the Romanian Ministry of National Defense continues its efforts to modernize and professionalize the country's armed forces in accordance with NATO standards. Part of this process is the development of a Special Forces (SF) capability that is to accomplish initial operational readiness by FY 2005. With appropriate organizational arrangements and focused combat training, the Romanian SF will increase their performance during future deployments in joint and combined settings. This project analyzes Romania's strategic documents, identifies the missions that can be conducted by the country's General-Purpose Forces or other security services, and finally proposes five appropriate tasks for the SF: Combating Terrorism, Counterproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Special Reconnaissance, Direct Action, and Security Detail for Romanian officials in crisis zones. In exploring what are the most effective structural arrangements for the Romanian Special Forces, this thesis uses a design program the recommendations of which lead to the proposal of a new organizational structure. Thus, it is determined that Romania's Special Forces elements should develop into a flexible, highly-mobile and joint organization displaying a flat hierarchy and centralized command and control. / Lieutenant, Romanian Army

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