Thesis (MSc (Computer Science))-- University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis explores the use of neural networks for predicting difficult, real-world time series. We first establish and demonstrate methods for characterising, modelling and predicting well-known systems. The real-world system we explore is seismic event data obtained from a South African gold mine. We show that this data is chaotic. After preprocessing the raw data, we show that neural networks are able to predict seismic activity reasonably well. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis ondersoek die gebruik van neurale netwerke om komplekse, werklik bestaande tydreekse te voorspel. Ter aanvang noem en demonstreer ons metodes vir die karakterisering, modelering en voorspelling van bekende stelsels. Ons gaan dan voort en ondersoek seismiese gebeurlikheidsdata afkomstig van ’n Suid-Afrikaanse goudmyn. Ons wys dat die data chaoties van aard is. Nadat ons die rou data verwerk, wys ons dat neurale netwerke die tydreekse redelik goed kan voorspel. / Integrated Seismic Systems International

L'interférométrie sismique, tout comme l'interférométrie optique, étudie les phénomènes d'interférence entre des couples de signaux sismiques afin de mettre en évidence des différences entre ces signaux (par exemple Curtis et al. 2006). Les traitements utilisés consistent le plus souvent à corréler les enregistrements entre différents capteurs pour remonter aux fonctions de Green, (ou réponse impulsionnelle) entre ces récepteurs (par exemple, Derode et al. (2003), Wapenaar et al. (2004), Larose et al. (2006), Sanchez-Sesma et Campillo (2006)). Ce principe a déjà été appliqué avec succès dans les domaines de la sismologie (Campillo et Paul (2003)), des ultrasons (Weaver et Lobkis (2001)), de l'exploration sismique (Schuster (2001) et Wapenaar et al. (2004)), et même de l'hélio-sismologie (Duvall et al. (1993)) Dans tous ces cas, l'analyse des corrélations a conduit à une description détaillée des milieux de propagation, en l'occurrence l'intérieur de la Terre dans le cas de la sismologie. La sismique passive, par opposition à la sismique active utilisant les sources cohérentes artificielles (explosifs, canons à air, vibrateurs...), exploite les sources cohérentes naturelles (séismes...). Depuis peu la sismique passive exploite également des champs d'ondes aléatoires engendrées à des temps inconnus par une multitude de sources inconnues dans le sous-sol qui sont enregistrées à différentes positions de récepteurs. L'analyse par interférométrie sismique des enregistrements à deux capteurs permet de remonter aux fonctions de Green, ou réponse impulsionnelle, entre ces deux récepteurs (Derode et al. (2003)). Cette thèse, à vocations à la fois expérimentale et applicative, a deux buts : - vérifier au laboratoire, sur des expériences ultrasonores et avec différents types de roches, l'efficacité du monitoring de substitution de fluides par l'analyse interférométrique ultrasonore - appliquer sur le terrain les méthodes d'interférométrie sismique passive à des expériences ponctuelles de surveillance sismique passive d'exploitation du sous-sol. Ce manuscrit présente, après une synthèse bibliographique, la mise au point d'une nouvelle méthode de mesure des constantes élastiques d'un échantillon de roche (sèche ou saturée de fluide) basée sur les principes de l'interférométrie ultrasonore et de la spectroscopie par résonance ultrasonore. La méthode a été testée et validée (reproductibilité, fidélité, fiabilité…) sur un matériau standard de propriétés connues (aluminium). On expose que les effets de substitution fluide sont tout-à-fait mesurables avec la méthode sur divers échantillons de roches sèches puis saturées (en eau ou en éthylène glycol) et les résultats sont en accord raisonnable avec la théorie poroélastique de Biot-Gassmann. En outre, un certain nombre de faiblesses de la méthode ont été mises en évidence, à savoir la limitation à des roches assez homogènes et peu atténuantes. La dernière partie de ce manuscrit met en évidence des variations de vitesse des ondes dans un champ d'hydrocarbures (informations relatives à ce champ confidentielles) concomitantes avec le début de l'injection de vapeur dans celui-ci (pour récupération assistée de l'huile). / Seismic interferometry, like optic interferometry, studies the interferences phenomena between couples of seismic signals, with the aim of pointing at differences between those signals (Curtis et al. 2006 for instance). The data processing consists, generally, in correlating the recordings between different stations to retrieve the Green's function between these sensors (Derode et al. (2003), Wapenaar et al. (2004), Larose et al. (2006), Sanchez-Sesma et Campillo (2006)). This principle has already been successfully applied in the field of seismology (Campillo and Paul (2003)), ultrasound (Weaver et Lobkis (2001)), seismic exploration and even helioseismology (Duvall et al. (1993)). In all these cases, the analysis of the correlations leads to a detailed description of the propagation medium. Contrary to active seismic which uses artificial coherent sources (explosives, air guns…), passive seismic exploits natural coherent sources (seisms…). Since a few years, passive seismics also exploits random wave fields generated at unknown times by many unknown sources in the ground, and recorded at different stations positions. The analysis with cross-correlation of pairs of recordings, from pairs of sensors, leads to the Green's function between the two sensors (Derode et al. (2003)). This thesis has two objectives: -to check, at the lab scale, the effectiveness of monitoring of fluids substitution with noise correlation (ultrasound scale) in rocks -to apply noise correlation methods to passive seismic monitoring of a hydrocarbons field. This thesis presents, after a state of the art, the set-up of a new method to measure elastic constants of a rock sample (dry or fluid-saturated), based on ultrasound interferometry principle and resonant ultrasound spectroscopy. The method has been tested and validated (reproducibility, accuracy, precision…) on a standard material (aluminium). We show that the effects of a fluids substitution are measurable on various rock samples (dry or saturated, with water or with ethylene glycol) with this method. Plus the results are in agreement with Biot-Gassmann's theory. Besides, several weaknesses of the method were pointed, that is to say the method does not work on heterogeneous or attenuating medium. The last part of this thesis exposes speed of waves variations in a hydrocarbons field, when steam is injected simultaneously inside the reservoir (enhanced oil recovery operation).

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第21950号 / 理博第4528号 / 新制||理||1650(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 釜井 俊孝, 教授 千木良 雅弘 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

En un evento sísmico, las estructuras suelen incurrir en un comportamiento inelástico, suscitándose daños estructurales. Sin embargo, en la actualidad existen diversos dispositivos de control sísmico, sobresaliendo los disipadores fluido viscoso (dfv), los cuales añaden amortiguamiento a la edificación, cuya finalidad es cumplir con el objetivo fundamental de la Ingeniería Sismorresistente, esto es, salvaguardar la vida de los habitantes. El presente trabajo consiste en su implementación en una edificación con predominio de muros estructurales, de 5 niveles que presenta irregularidad torsional y supera el límite de deriva permisible establecido por la Norma Técnica E.030 “Diseño Sismorresistente”. El diseño de estos dispositivos surge con la determinación del objetivo de diseño. Así pues, dado que se espera un desempeño de resguardo a la vida ante un nivel de sismo raro y daños a lo sumo del tipo moderado, la deriva objetivo máxima es 0.58%. Se analiza el modelo considerando los exponentes de velocidad lineal y no lineal, siendo los dfv distribuidos uniformemente con disposición diagonal, cuya cantidad por nivel corresponde a 8. Entre los principales resultados, se destaca la reducción de esfuerzos en elementos estructurales, del comportamiento torsional y de las derivas en un rango del 45%, 91% y 60%, respectivamente. En síntesis, conforme las mejoras debido a la implementación de los disipadores fluido viscoso, a corto plazo, en el Perú, será necesario establecer una normativa para el diseño óptimo y el aporte eficiente de amortiguamiento en las estructuras. / In a seismic event, structures usually incur in inelastic behavior, causing structural damage. However, there are currently various seismic control devices, most notably viscous fluid dissipators (dfv), which add damping to the building, whose purpose is to fulfill the fundamental objective of Earthquake Engineering, that is, to safeguard the life of the inhabitants. The present work consists of its implementation in a building with a predominance of structural walls, of 5 levels that presents torsional irregularity and exceeds the permissible drift limit established by Technical Standard E.030 “Earthquake-resistant Design”. The design of these devices arises with the determination of the design objective. Thus, given that a life-saving performance is expected in the event of a rare earthquake level and moderate damage at most, the maximum target drift is 0.58%. The model is analyzed considering the exponents of linear and non-linear velocity, with the dfv being uniformly distributed with a diagonal arrangement, whose quantity per level corresponds to 8. Among the main results, stands out the stress reduction in structural elements, torsional behavior and drifts in a range of 45%, 91% and 60%, respectively. In summary, according to the improvements due to the implementation of viscous fluid dissipators, in the short term, in Peru, it will be necessary to establish regulations for the optimal design and efficient damping contribution in the structures. / Tesis

Mining engineers are tasked with ensuring that underground mining operations be both safe and efficiently productive. Induced stress in deep mines has a significant role in the stability of the underground mines and hence the safety of the mining workplace because the behavior of the rock mass associated with mining-induced seismicity is poorly-understood. Passive seismic tomography is a tool with which the performance of a rock mass can be monitored in a timely manner. Using the tool of passive seismic tomography, the advance rate of operation and mining designs can be updated considering the induced stress level in the abutting rock. Most of our current understanding of rock mass behavior associated with mining-induced seismicity comes from numerical modeling and a limited set of case studies. Therefore, it is critical to continuously monitor the rock mass performance under induced stress. Underground stress changes directly influence the seismic wave velocity of the rock mass, which can be measured by passive seismic tomography. The precise rock mass seismicity can be modeled based on the data recorded by seismic sensors such as geophones of an in-mine microseismic system. The seismic velocity of rock mass, which refers to the propagated P-wave velocity, varies associated with the occurrence of major seismic events (defined as having a local moment magnitude between 2 to 4). Seismic velocity changes in affected areas can be measured before and after a major seismic event in order to determine the highly stressed zones. This study evaluates the seismic velocity trends associated with five major seismic events with moment magnitude of 1.4 at a deep narrow-vein mine in order to recognize reasonable patterns correlated to induced stress redistribution. This pattern may allow recognizing areas and times which are prone to occurrence of a major seismic event and helpful in taking appropriate actions in order to mitigate the risk such as evacuation of the area in abrupt cases and changing the aggressive mine plans in gradual cases. In other words, the high stress zones can be distinguished at their early stage and correspondingly optimizing the mining practices to prevent progression of high stress zones which can be ended to a rock failure. For this purpose a block cave mine was synthetically modeled and numerically analyzed in order to evaluate the capability of the passive seismic tomography in determining the induced stress changes through seismic velocity measurement in block cave mines. Next the same method is used for a narrow vein mine as a case study to determine the velocity patterns corresponding to each major seismic event. / Doctor of Philosophy / Mining activities unbalance the stress distribution underground, which is called mining induced stress. The stability of the underground mines is jeopardized due to accumulation of induced stress thus it is critical for the safety of the miners to prevent excessive induced stress accumulation. Hence it is important to continuously monitor the rock mass performance under the induced stress which can form cracks or slide along the existing discontinuities in rock mass. Cracking or sliding releases energy as the source of the seismic wave propagation in underground rocks, known as a seismic event. The velocity of seismic wave propagation can be recorded and monitored by installing seismic sensors such as geophones underground. The seismic events are similar to earthquakes but on a much smaller scale. The strength of seismic events is measured on a scale of moment magnitude. The strongest earthquakes in the world are around magnitude 9, most destructive earthquakes are magnitude 7 or higher, and earthquakes below magnitude 5 generally do not cause significant damage. The moment magnitude of mining induced seismic events is typically less than 3. In order to monitor mining induced stress variations, the propagated seismic wave velocity in rock mass is measured by a series of mathematical computations on recorded seismic waves called passive seismic tomography, which is similar to the medical CT-scan machine. Seismic wave velocity is like the velocity of the vibrating particles of rock due to the released energy from a seismic event. This study proposes to investigate trends of seismic velocity variations before and after each seismic event. The areas which are highly stressed have higher seismic velocities compared to the average seismic velocity of the entire area. Therefore, early recognition of highly stressed zones, based on the seismic velocity amount prior the occurrence of major seismic events, will be helpful to apply optimization of mining practices to prevent progression of high stress zones which can be ended to rock failures. For this purpose, time-dependent seismic velocity of a synthetic mine was compared to its stress numerically. Then, the seismic data of a narrow vein mine is evaluated to determine the seismic velocity trends prior to the occurrence of at least five major seismic events as the case study.